Asia Daily: November 7, 2023
News
Yellen will host the Chinese vice premier for talks in San Francisco before the start of APEC summit. Ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is set to host Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng for a two-day discussion in San Francisco. These talks are part of ongoing high-level engagements aimed at reducing tensions and fostering cooperation on issues like climate change, despite existing trade disagreements. This meeting precedes an anticipated sideline meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit. Aamer Madhani, AP News, November 6
Eyeing North Korea, Tokyo holds first missile evacuation drill in years. Amid growing concerns over North Korea's missile capabilities, Tokyo conducted its first missile evacuation drill since 2018. The drill involved about 60 residents in the Nerima ward of Tokyo, simulating a response to missile threats with the J-Alert system, which sends warnings to the populace. The exercises highlight the need for preparedness in the face of recent missile tests by North Korea, including short-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Despite the drills' intended purpose for civil defense, not all citizens are supportive, with some protesters advocating for diplomatic engagement over preparedness drills. Francis Tang, Reuters, November 6
Xi Jinping tells Anthony Albanese China-Australia ties are now ‘on the right path’. In a landmark meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping assured Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese that relations between China and Australia are improving, marking a significant shift following years of tension. Xi emphasized the absence of fundamental conflicts and the potential for cooperative partnership, while also subtly critiquing the formation of exclusive alliances in the region. Albanese reciprocated with a positive outlook on the benefits of dialogue and maintaining strong economic ties, suggesting that such engagement could lead to mutual understanding and resolution of differences. Cyril Ip and Liu Zhen, South China Morning Post, November 6
Israel-Hamas conflict to dominate Tokyo summit of top G7 diplomats. The escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas will be a primary focus during the G7 foreign ministers' meeting in Tokyo this week. Japan, holding the presidency of the G7 this year, will lead discussions to consolidate the group's stance on Israel's ongoing operations against Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. Despite international calls for a humanitarian ceasefire, Israel has committed to persist with its military actions until the release of hostages taken by Hamas. Gabriel Dominguez, The Japan Times, November 6
S. Korea sees signs of N. Korea receiving technical support from Russia over spy satellite. South Korea's intelligence has reported that North Korea is likely receiving Russian technical support for its spy satellite program, amid signs of an arms-for-technology exchange. North Korea has allegedly shipped over a million artillery shells to Russia since early August, which may sustain Russian military operations in Ukraine for two months. Pyongyang's munition factories are operating at full capacity, and civilian resources are being utilized to support these exports. Kim Jong Un's meeting with Putin and a visit to Russia's Vostochny Cosmodrome have led to speculation about Russia's assistance in North Korea's satellite endeavors. Despite lacking financial and technical capabilities, North Korea is nearing a third satellite launch attempt and is also seeking Russian military aircraft. Kim Soo-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, November 6
Philippines aiming to seal "reciprocal" troop pact with Japan. The Philippines is nearing an agreement on a "reciprocal" troop pact with Japan, which would allow the forces of each country to visit for training and other purposes, building on Japan's similar arrangements with the United States and Australia. This development aims to strengthen defense ties amid concerns over China's increasing assertiveness in the region. The specifics of the agreement, including the legal status of the visiting troops, are still under negotiation. Reuters, November 6
Myanmar resistance claims first capture of a district capital from the military government. In a significant development, Myanmar's armed resistance groups have reportedly captured Kawlin, a district capital in the Sagaing region, marking the first such takeover since the military coup in February 2021. The offensive, which began on Friday, involved coordinated attacks by various local resistance factions, including the People’s Defense Force. Despite the military's use of ground forces, artillery, and air strikes, the resistance secured control over the town's key facilities. The National Unity Government acknowledged this achievement as a boost to the nationwide effort to counter the military regime. Grant Peck, AP News, November 6
'Hungry, angry' fishermen stage protest at sea. Fishermen from Masinloc, Zambales, have demonstrated against China by releasing a giant buoy effigy to protest restricted access to their traditional fishing grounds at Bajo de Masinloc. The effigy symbolizes the barriers installed by Chinese ships, which the Philippine Coast Guard has dismantled on presidential orders. However, Chinese enforcement persists, driving Filipino fishermen away and fostering uncertainty in the community reliant on these waters for sustenance and livelihood. The local council has voiced its discontent, calling for peaceful access to the sea for the welfare of their families. Francis Earl Cueto, The Manila Times, November 7
Laos, South Korea Build Cultural Bridge Through Art, Music. Laos and South Korea have signed a memorandum of understanding to enhance cooperation and cultural exchange, particularly through the performing arts. This agreement includes the creation of the Lao Youth Orchestra, with South Korea providing training, instruments, and expertise. The collaboration is set to be showcased on television in both countries, highlighting a shared commitment to cultural and artistic development. This initiative represents a significant step in forging closer bilateral relations through the universal language of music. Namfon Chanthavong, The Laotian Times, November 6
Cracks emerge in Pacific island unity as 3 leaders skip annual bloc meeting amid US-China rivalry. Leaders from Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, and Solomon Islands will not attend the annual Pacific Islands Forum, highlighting potential rifts in regional unity against the backdrop of US-China tensions. These Melanesian nations, important for their strategic location and courted by both China and the US for security and economic alliances, are sending ministers instead. The absence of these leaders at the forum, which aims to address challenges like climate change and regional cooperation, underscores the complex geopolitical dynamics at play in the Pacific. South China Morning Post, November 6
Long Form
Myanmar: A New Abnormal. Myanmar's civil decline is evident not only in the direct impacts of conflict but also in the broader societal challenges it faces. The country's economic crisis post-coup has led to a resurgence of power cuts in Yangon, disrupting businesses and daily life. The energy sector's woes are compounded by a threefold increase in petrol prices, making transportation and goods distribution prohibitively expensive. Migration patterns have shifted, with a significant internal and outward movement of people due to economic pressures and conflict. The military regime's imposition of a 25% remittance rule on migrant workers' wages and a 10% tax on earnings further strains the financial stability of families. Crime rates are reportedly rising, and narcotics use has surged, with the military insulated from these hardships. This "new abnormal" reflects a war-ravaged country grappling with deep-rooted issues beyond the battlefield. By David Scott Mathieson, The Interpreter, November 7
America’s Real China Problem The United States is at a policy crossroads, needing to redefine its economic relationship with China. Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson critique the traditional view that international trade is universally beneficial, highlighting the need for trade that fosters global stability and aligns with democratic values. By Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, Project Syndicate, November 6
Grief for Li Keqiang Reflects Wistfulness for China's Road Not Taken The public mourning for China's former Premier Li Keqiang is less about his tenure and more a reflection of nostalgia for the era of 'reform and opening' that he represented. Li's death has prompted a wave of public affection, contrasting sharply with the current leadership's path. The article suggests that Li's popularity stems from the potential of a different direction for China, one that might have continued the policies of Deng Xiaoping, favoring economic growth and lower levels of authoritarian control. This sentiment underscores a broader disaffection with the current trajectory under Xi Jinping, where increased repression and assertiveness are the norms. By Steve Tsang, Nikkei Asia, November 6
India Once Was a Strong Ally of Palestine: What Changed? India's historical support for Palestine has shifted dramatically, with the nation now taking a pronounced pro-Israel stance. This change is attributed to India's significant arms trade with Israel, domestic political shifts towards Hindu nationalism, and strategic foreign policy considerations. The Diplomat, November 6
The Battle for the Soul of the Dalai Lama. Beijing's efforts to dominate this religious process threaten to erode the cultural and spiritual autonomy of the Tibetan people. The current Dalai Lama, a figure of peace and nonviolence, is depicted by China as a separatist, despite his relinquishment of political power in 2011. The international community faces a call to action to preserve the sanctity of the Tibetan succession rituals and to stand against China's violation of religious freedoms. By Lobsang Sangay, Foreign Affairs, November 6
It May Be Too Late to Fend Off China’s Battery Giants. With a surge in domestic sales and a sharp increase in exports, China has become the world's leading exporter of EVs, bolstering its battery industry. Companies like CATL are expanding rapidly, not just in China but also in Europe and other regions, potentially sidestepping future import restrictions. This expansion includes significant investments in overseas battery plants, with a notable focus on Europe and free trade partners. The article suggests that while Chinese battery expertise could eventually contribute to local European industry, in the short term, it may hinder the growth of Western competitors. By Jacky Wong, The Wall Street Journal, November 7
Indian and Indonesian G20 Presidencies Juggle Nationalism and Global Cooperation. The presidencies of India and Indonesia within the G20 have highlighted the complex interplay between national sovereignty and the pursuit of global economic cooperation. Amidst geopolitical tensions and the economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, both nations have steered the G20 agenda towards addressing the concerns of the Global South, including food security and sustainable development. The leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Joko Widodo has been instrumental in advancing these discussions, even as they navigate domestic political dynamics and the broader 'political trilemma' that challenges the compatibility of deep economic integration with democratic politics and national sovereignty. By Maria Monica Wihardja and Sharon Seah, East Asia Forum, November 7