Asia Daily: November 6, 2024
China will work with U.S., government says, but more rivalry expected under Trump. China stated its intention to work with the U.S. on a foundation of "mutual respect," even as Donald Trump edges toward another presidential term, raising expectations of intensifying superpower competition. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Beijing's U.S. policy remains focused on "mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation." Chinese experts foresee heightened friction, with Trump’s proposed tariffs and potential withdrawal from global agreements offering both challenges and openings for China to expand its influence. Laurie Chen, Reuters, November 6
Philippine forces retake an island in mock combat as China’s navy watches. Philippine troops conducted a simulated island retake in the South China Sea, marking the first such exercise in contested waters while Chinese naval ships observed from a distance. General Romeo Brawner Jr., who supervised from a naval frigate, affirmed the nation’s capability to defend its territory. Philippine forces used a navy frigate, speedboats, and an air force aircraft to reclaim Loaita Island, highlighting their preparedness amid rising tensions. Aaron Favila and Jim Gomez, AP News, November 6
With no majority in Lower House, Diet affairs now in disarray. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and coalition partner Komeito lost their Lower House majority in the recent election, leading to legislative deadlock. A special Diet session is scheduled for Nov. 11, but opposition parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party and Nippon Ishin, demand extended debates on critical issues like the LDP’s fundraising scandal. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s position remains unstable, with potential no-confidence votes possible. The Asahi Shimbun, November 6
Top diplomats of S. Korea, Laos hold talks on N. Korea troop deployment. South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul met with Lao Foreign Minister Saleumxay Kommasith to address regional security issues, focusing on North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia. Cho urged Laos and ASEAN to support efforts in bringing North Korea back to denuclearization talks, as North Korea continues military provocations, including recent missile tests. Kim Han-joo, Yonhap News Agency, November 6
China pledges support for Myanmar's political transition. China's Premier Li Qiang affirmed Beijing’s commitment to Myanmar's political reconciliation and transition during a meeting with Myanmar's junta leader Min Aung Hlaing in Kunming, China. This visit marks the junta leader's first to China since the 2021 coup that has plunged Myanmar into ongoing conflict, particularly in regions bordering China. Li expressed China’s readiness to enhance cooperation with Myanmar on multilateral fronts and support the China-Myanmar economic corridor to strengthen regional economic ties. Reuters, November 6
Calls for assembly to draft new charter. Thailand’s coalition parties agreed to establish a constitutional drafting assembly (CDA) aimed at creating a new charter that serves public interests. Bhumjaithai Party leaders emphasized that the CDA should proceed with public endorsement via a referendum, while controversial lese-majeste laws will remain intact. Chartthaipattana Party leader Varawut Silpa-archa noted that completing the charter may extend beyond the next election. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra expressed openness to discussions with other parties on the process. Bangkok Post, November 6
Japan PM congratulates Trump on U.S. election victory. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba extended congratulations to Donald Trump after he declared victory in the U.S. presidential election, expressing eagerness to strengthen U.S.-Japan relations. Ishiba emphasized Japan’s commitment to elevating the alliance, critical for addressing security challenges posed by China, North Korea, and Russia. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi affirmed that the U.S.-Japan alliance will remain central to Japan’s defense strategy. Kyodo News, November 6
Russia ratifies North Korea pact after US says up to 10,000 North Korean troops deployed to Kursk. Russia’s upper parliamentary house approved a military assistance treaty with North Korea as the U.S. confirmed reports of 10,000 North Korean troops deployed to Russia’s Kursk region. Signed in June by President Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un, the “comprehensive strategic partnership treaty” commits each nation to military support if either is attacked, marking the closest military alignment between Moscow and Pyongyang since the Cold War. AP News, November 6
U.S. will continue Taiwan-friendly approach after election, senior Taiwan official says. Taiwan’s National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai Ming-yen stated that the United States is expected to maintain its Taiwan-friendly stance regardless of the 2024 election outcome. Tsai highlighted Taiwan’s commitment to cooperating with the current U.S. administration to prevent potential disruptions from China during the transition. Amid rising U.S.-China tensions, Economy Minister Kuo Jyh-huei added that economic ties with the U.S. remain robust, irrespective of the election result. Ben Blanchard and Jeanny Kao, Reuters, November 6
Yoon, NATO chief discuss joint responses against N. Korea's troop deployment to Russia. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte held phone talks to address North Korea's recent deployment of troops to Russia in support of its war efforts in Ukraine. The leaders discussed enhancing cooperation among South Korea, NATO, and allied countries to counter this security threat, with Rutte announcing NATO’s plans for a special task force with the EU. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, November 6
Kashmir legislature passes resolution asking India to restore its partial autonomy. The legislature of Indian-controlled Kashmir approved a resolution demanding the restoration of the region’s partial autonomy, which the Indian government, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, revoked in 2019. Sponsored by the National Conference party, the resolution urges dialogue with the Indian government to reinstate Kashmir's special status. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with 29 seats in the 90-seat assembly, opposed the resolution. AP News, November 6
Tokayev and Macron forge new path for French investments in Kazakhstan. Presidents Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan and Emmanuel Macron of France met in Paris, focusing on deepening economic and strategic ties, including expanded French investments in energy, infrastructure, and technology. The summit underscored Kazakhstan’s role as a regional partner and its openness to foreign investment, particularly in nuclear energy, with France’s involvement in a nuclear power consortium under discussion. Dr. Robert M. Cutler, The Times of Central Asia, November 6
RI, Singapore agree to push Five-Point Consensus on Myanmar. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong reaffirmed their commitment to ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus on Myanmar, aiming for inclusive dialogue and humanitarian aid to address Myanmar's crisis. The consensus, created in 2021, calls for dialogue, an end to violence, and ASEAN-mediated support. Both leaders underscored ASEAN's role in encouraging resolution efforts amid Myanmar’s ongoing instability, which poses broader security challenges for the region. ANTARA News, November 6
The Wakhan Corridor: China's Inroad to Afghanistan. China is advancing a road through Afghanistan's Wakhan Corridor, aiming to link Afghanistan and China directly. This route will support trade, infrastructure projects, and stability measures, especially concerning security in Xinjiang. China’s involvement reflects strategic goals, integrating Afghanistan into the Belt and Road Initiative, increasing economic influence, and establishing a regional security buffer. The corridor also provides China with a key position in Central and South Asian geopolitics. Aigerim Turgunbaeva and Fayazuddin Ghiasi, CACI, November 6
India Should Take a Proactive Interest in the TAPI Pipeline. India is urged to lead efforts in reviving the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline for strategic and economic gain, despite security and cost concerns. Proponents argue that TAPI could strengthen India's energy security and regional influence while fostering cooperation with Pakistan and Central Asia. Although risks remain, including security in Afghanistan and political tensions with Pakistan, India's active participation could secure vital energy resources and reinforce regional stability. Bantirani Patro, South Asian Voices, November 6
Cultivating Change in Japan's Agricultural Policy. Japan's agricultural reforms aim to address declining rural populations, an aging workforce, and low productivity in farming. Key initiatives include subsidies to boost rice exports and incentives to encourage young people and foreign workers in agriculture. Efforts focus on sustaining rice farming while modernizing practices to meet global market demand, emphasizing productivity over traditional models. Changes are essential for Japan's food security and to adapt its agricultural sector to both domestic and international economic challenges. Yusaku Yoshikawa, East Asia Forum, November 7
Malaysia’s Defense Upgrades: Progress or Pitfall? Malaysia is improving its military with acquisitions like Kuwait’s F/A-18 Hornets and South Korean FA-50s to modernize its air force, though some argue these outdated models may strain resources. The government is also exploring partnerships with countries like Turkey for advanced technology, while bolstering domestic defense production. Although Malaysia seeks regional power status, analysts question the sustainability of these purchases given budget limitations and technological obsolescence concerns. Caleb Mills, Geopolitical Monitor, November 6
Understanding India’s Approach to Nuclear Strategy. India maintains a nuclear policy centered on deterrence and retaliation, guided by three pillars: a no-first-use stance, assured massive retaliation, and an avoidance of conventional nuclear force use. Balancing threats from Pakistan and China, India's nuclear capabilities focus on maintaining second-strike credibility while emphasizing strategic restraint aligned with non-violent cultural principles. Alex Alfirraz Scheers, The Diplomat, November 6
Xin Yimin in Malaysia: Opportunities and Challenges. The recent influx of Chinese migrants, or xin yimin, contributes significantly to Malaysia’s economy, notably in sectors like tourism, education, and infrastructure. However, concerns arise around socioeconomic divides, property inflation, and limited cultural integration, especially as affluent migrants form exclusive communities. Policymakers face balancing these benefits with issues of affordability and demographic impact to ensure inclusive growth for Malaysians. Peter T.C. Chang, Fulcrum, November 6