Asia Daily: November 5, 2024
The head of Myanmar’s military government embarked Tuesday on an official visit to China, the embattled Southeast Asian nation’s most important international ally, for several regional meetings. Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing departed from Naypyitaw for his first visit to China since the military seized power in 2021. He will attend summits in Kunming and meet Chinese officials to discuss economic and diplomatic cooperation. China, Myanmar’s top trading partner and arms supplier, has maintained relations with the military despite international sanctions. Myanmar’s opposition National Unity Government criticized the visit, expressing concerns about China’s ongoing support for the junta. AP News, November 5
With Chinese official’s visit, Kenyan president says deal to fund and build highway is close Talks are progressing for China to finance Kenya's Rironi-Mau Summit highway and possibly resume the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) extension to Malaba, according to Kenyan President William Ruto after a meeting with Li Xi, a senior Chinese official.The proposed 475 km extension, estimated to cost $5 billion, aims to connect Naivasha to Malaba by 2028. During the visit, Li highlighted China’s commitment to supporting Kenya's Vision 2030 goals, which include development in education, healthcare, and environmental initiatives. Jevans Nyabiage, South China Morning Post, November 5
Four Central Asian entities added to U.S. sanctions list. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned four companies from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan for allegedly providing dual-use machine tools to Russia via China, supporting its military capabilities. The scheme involved procuring equipment in Europe, funneling it through Chinese company Shanghai Winsun, and delivering it to Russian firm Open Systems Development Technology. The sanctions are part of broader U.S. efforts to cut off resources aiding Russia’s war in Ukraine, with Central Asia seen as a frequent sanctions-evasion route. Almaz Kumenov, Eurasianet, November 5
PM arrives in Kunming, beginning activities in China Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh arrived in Kunming, China, on Sunday to commence his three-day official visit, joining regional cooperation events and bilateral discussions. The visit includes his participation in the 9th China-South Asia Expo and the China-Southeast Asia Business Forum, emphasizing Vietnam’s economic cooperation with China and regional partners. Chinh is also scheduled to engage in high-level discussions with Chinese officials, promoting economic and diplomatic ties, and is expected to address regional development issues in bilateral meetings. Vietnam News, November 5
Indonesia's Q3 GDP rises 4.95% from a year ago, slightly slower than Q2. Indonesia’s GDP grew 4.95% in the third quarter year-on-year, below the expected 5% and down from Q2’s 5.05%. Household consumption, comprising about half of GDP, grew 4.91%—slightly lower than the prior quarter—while investment rose 5.15% amid infrastructure projects like the new capital. Chief Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto indicated support for maintaining growth at 5%, citing incentives such as property tax breaks and potential labor support measures. Stefanno Sulaiman and Fransiska Nangoy, Reuters, November 5
Lower House support to revise Constitution falls to 67%: survey. Support for constitutional amendments among Japan’s newly elected Lower House members dropped to 67%, down from 76% in 2021, according to a survey by The Asahi Shimbun and political scientist Masaki Taniguchi. While over 80% of LDP and Nippon Ishin members favor revision, Komeito and the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan largely oppose it. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s administration now prioritizes stability and economic issues over constitutional debate. The ruling coalition, with 215 seats after recent losses, remains far from the 310 seats required to propose amendments in the Diet. Yuta Ogi and Taishi Sasayama, The Asahi Shimbun, November 5
Tajikistan and ADB sign grant for green corridor initiative. Tajikistan’s Ministry of Finance has signed an $86.6 million grant agreement with the Asian Development Bank to develop a "Green Corridor Demonstration Project." The project includes upgrading a 49-kilometer stretch of the Dangara-Gulistan highway, adding four lanes, bicycle paths, and electric vehicle charging infrastructure to promote eco-friendly transport. This initiative is part of Tajikistan's broader efforts to improve regional connectivity and sustainable infrastructure. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, November 5
Palau, U.S. security ally in Pacific, holds election. Palau held national elections, with President Surangel Whipps Jr. running against former president and brother-in-law Tommy Remengesau. Key issues include Palau’s economic ties with the U.S., secured under a recent Compact of Free Association that provides $890 million in exchange for military access, and Palau’s diplomatic alignment with Taiwan amid Chinese pressure. Tax reform has also featured in the campaign. Additionally, a defamation lawsuit filed by Whipps’ family business against a local newspaper has raised media freedom concerns in the country. PINA, November 5
Uzbekistan and China strengthen partnership in nuclear energy development. At EXPO 2024 in Shanghai, Uzbekistan's Atomic Energy Agency and China’s National Nuclear Corporation discussed expanding nuclear energy collaboration. Plans include using China’s nuclear expertise, exploring small modular reactors, and expanding uranium mining, processing, and nuclear fuel production in Uzbekistan. Both countries aim to strengthen ties in peaceful nuclear development, with China committed to supporting Uzbekistan’s nuclear infrastructure goals. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, November 5
Xi Jinping urges China’s provinces to be patient and fair in push for economic reforms Chinese President Xi Jinping advised provincial leaders to avoid rushing economic reforms and warned against “selective law enforcement” that has led some provinces to target businesses for revenue. He emphasized a unified national market over local protectionism and called for dismantling vested interests that hinder reform efforts. Xi delivered his remarks at a recent session on party economic goals, urging officials to meet the annual 5% growth target despite recent slowdowns, aligning with ongoing policies to address local debt and short-term economic needs. Josephine Ma, South China Morning Post, November 5
Cash-strapped Myanmar junta doubles down on foreign remittances. Myanmar’s military regime has established a 13-member committee tasked with enforcing rules requiring migrant workers to remit 25% of their income through official channels, aiming to boost foreign currency reserves. Overseen by military intelligence, the committee pressures migrants to use official banks at a less favorable exchange rate, bypassing informal hundi networks. This move is critical for the cash-strapped junta, which faces severe currency shortages due to sanctions and reduced foreign investment since the 2021 coup. The Irrawaddy, November 5
FM Cho calls on U.N. officials to demand immediate withdrawal of N.K. troops from Russia. South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul urged U.N. officials to press for North Korean troops’ withdrawal from Russia, calling it a clear violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. In Seoul, Cho met with U.N. Under-Secretary-General Rosemary DiCarlo and High Representative Izumi Nakamitsu, condemning North Korea’s military ties with Russia as destabilizing. The officials attended the 23rd South Korea-U.N. disarmament conference, where Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho also highlighted North Korea’s recent missile launches and pledged South Korea’s commitment to peaceful reunification. Choi Kyong-ae, Yonhap News Agency, November 5
Laos eyes role as Asia's potash powerhouse with rail exports to China. Laos plans to become a major potash supplier in Asia, leveraging new mining sites and fertilizer plants alongside the Laos-China Railway for efficient exports. Announced by Deputy Minister Chansaveng Boungnong, the initiative includes three NPK fertilizer plants and bromine salt factories, with exploration rights granted across 162,260 hectares. The rail link will reduce transport costs, targeting China’s vast potash demand. Laos, with 133.62 billion tons of potash reserves, aims to establish a sustainable, environmentally friendly potash industry. Phontham Visapra, The Laotian Times, November 5
New visa for modern nomads introduced in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan has launched the "Neo Nomad" visa, allowing remote workers to stay for up to a year while working for foreign companies. Applicants must show a stable monthly income of at least $3,000, have health insurance, and a clean criminal record. This initiative, aimed at attracting digital nomads in fields like IT and finance, is expected to generate an estimated $8 million annually. Tourism and Sports Minister Yerbol Myrzabasynov highlighted Almaty and Astana as top destinations for global digital nomads. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, November 4
Indonesia Takes a Bite Out of Apple, Sets Itself a Test for Future Investment. Indonesia has barred iPhone 16 sales as Apple has not met local content requirements (LCR), which mandate that 40% of components be locally sourced. Indonesia hopes LCR will boost domestic industries and reduce dependency on imports. However, Apple’s limited compliance with the LCR by establishing a Developer Academy shows broader challenges for foreign investors under these policies, risking potential deterrence. Balancing industrial goals with attracting investment will be pivotal for Indonesia's economic ambitions. Hilman Palaon, Lowy Institute, Nov 6
Harris or Trump: The US’ Broad Brushstrokes on China and Beijing’s Preferred Choice. Both a potential Harris administration and a second Trump administration would likely continue competitive US-China policies, with emphasis on military deterrence, technological safeguards, and alliance-building against China’s influence. China would prefer Harris as a “lesser evil” due to her perceived stability, fewer overtly antagonistic stances, and continuity with Biden’s policies. Conversely, a Trump return raises Beijing’s concerns over potential intensified conflict, especially surrounding Taiwan. Sourabh Gupta, ICAS, Nov 4
2024 FOCAC Beijing Summit: A New Chapter? The 2024 FOCAC summit in Beijing demonstrated China’s evolving priorities in Africa, with a $50.7 billion commitment emphasizing investments, development aid, and fewer infrastructure loans. This pivot reflects China's response to African debt challenges and economic shifts at home, focusing on industrial partnerships, technology, green projects, and trade facilitation, including tariff eliminations on imports from African countries. However, a persistent trade imbalance and concerns over debt sustainability continue to shape the dynamic. Yun Sun, Brookings, Nov 5
All That Glitters May Not Be Gold for Japan's Semiconductor Revival. Japan’s semiconductor industry revival faces challenges despite a government-led strategy including substantial subsidies, international partnerships, and advanced R&D centers. Initiatives like the Rapidus consortium aim to produce 2-nanometer chips by 2027, positioning Japan alongside the U.S., South Korea, and Taiwan. However, experts note risks in achieving technological parity and question the long-term viability of state intervention, given historical struggles and competition. The success of Japan’s strategy will likely depend on effective execution and sustained international collaboration. Joseph Negrine, East Asia Forum, Nov 5
North Korea Tests New Solid ICBM Probably Intended for MIRVs. North Korea tested the Hwasong-19 ICBM on October 31, showcasing longer range and payload capacity likely suited for multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs). Photos suggest a post-boost vehicle (PBV) could maneuver and release multiple warheads, adding to North Korea's second-strike capability and missile defense evasion. Full MIRV deployment, however, will require additional testing over several years. While no direct evidence links this advancement to Russian assistance, it remains a factor. Vann H. Van Diepen, 38 North, Nov 5
What’s Behind the ‘Credible Threat’ of Planned Attacks in a Sri Lankan Tourist Hotspot? A U.S. travel advisory warning of possible attacks in Arugam Bay, a key tourist area in Sri Lanka, has raised alarm, with other countries issuing similar alerts. The threat reportedly relates to tensions involving Israeli tourists and broader geopolitical issues tied to Middle Eastern conflicts. Local authorities boosted security but denied immediate evidence of explosives. The incident shows Sri Lanka’s complex relationship with tourism and foreign influence amid economic recovery efforts. Uditha Devapriya, Omar Rajarathnam, and Mandana Ismail, The Diplomat, Nov 5
Indonesia’s 2024 Presidential Election: How Personas and Policy Platforms Influenced Swing Voters. During Indonesia’s 2024 election, swing voters were influenced by evolving perceptions of candidates’ personalities and policy positions. Data from two survey waves showed Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka attracted many undecided voters, while Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan saw limited gains. Prabowo-Gibran’s success stemmed from stronger favorable shifts in both personality and policy perception among swing voters, highlighting Indonesia's personality-driven electoral climate. Julia Lau and Maria Monica Wihardja, Fulcrum, Nov 5
Why Southeast Asia Should Be Concerned About North Korean Troops in Russia. The deployment of North Korean troops to Russia in support of the Ukraine war raises security risks for Southeast Asia. This alliance could intensify regional tensions, undermine U.N. sanctions, and boost North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, which ASEAN opposes. Experts suggest Southeast Asian nations could bolster sanctions enforcement and participate in a multilateral monitoring team to address the fallout, even as ASEAN's formal options remain limited. Ian Storey, Fulcrum, Nov 5