Asia Daily: November 4, 2024

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Nov 05, 2024

Soldier's thumb is back; China refuses to pay damages. Filipino soldier Seaman First Class Jeffrey Facundo, who lost a thumb during a confrontation with Chinese sailors at Ayungin Shoal in June, has returned to duty after a successful reattachment. Meanwhile, China has not responded to the Philippines’ demand for approximately P60 million in damages related to the incident, which involved equipment destruction and injuries. The Armed Forces of the Philippines filed the claim with the Department of Foreign Affairs, highlighting ongoing tensions over Ayungin Shoal, which lies within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. Francisco Tuyay, The Manila Times, November 5

Wang Yi’s talks with Japanese official suggest meeting between Xi and Ishiba lies ahead. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Japan’s top security official Takeo Akiba met in Beijing, reinforcing dialogues between the two nations' leaders. Akiba's visit is seen as preparation for an upcoming summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, likely during the APEC summit in Peru or G20 meeting in Brazil this month. Wang emphasized Japan's commitment to the one-China policy regarding Taiwan, while Akiba aims to boost Japanese seafood exports to China and advance economic cooperation amid regional security challenges. Liu Zhen and Alyssa Chen, South China Morning Post, November 6

Kazakhstan and China begin negotiations on joint use of transboundary rivers. Kazakhstan's Water Resources Minister Nurzhan Nurzhigitov and Chinese Ambassador Zhang Xiao met on November 1 to discuss cooperative use of transboundary rivers, including the Ertis, Ile, and Emel, which originate in China. The countries established a working group to manage water distribution, modernize infrastructure, and train Kazakh specialists in China. A memorandum of cooperation is expected soon to support water management and environmental initiatives in the Ile-Balkhash basin. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, November 4

Philippine military drills to seize an island in the South China Sea. The Philippines launched two weeks of military drills on Monday, involving over 3,000 personnel, aimed at training forces to seize an island in the South China Sea. While officials clarified that the exercises were not targeted at any nation, tensions persist as China claims most of the sea region. These exercises, which include live-fire drills and beach landings, come as the Philippines prepares for joint U.S. drills next year amid increasing regional assertiveness by China. AP News, November 4

Panel to look into Thaksin's hospital stay. Thailand's House committee on state security plans to investigate alleged preferential treatment for former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra during his stay at Police General Hospital. The review follows a National Human Rights Commission report highlighting loose regulations allowing inmates, like Thaksin, to extend hospital stays with minimal oversight. Authorities, including former police officials and hospital personnel, are set to provide testimony. Thaksin’s extended hospital stay and parole arrangement, facilitated due to medical conditions, also face examination by Thailand’s National Anti-Corruption Commission. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, November 4

Putin hosts North Korean foreign minister on Russia's 'unity day.' Russian President Vladimir Putin met North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui in Moscow on Russia's Unity Day, highlighting close ties between Moscow and Pyongyang. This meeting, amid concerns over potential North Korean troop involvement in Ukraine, included warm greetings from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and reaffirmed "invincible military comradeship" between the countries. The U.S. has reported North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia’s Kursk region, while Kyiv’s allies push for responses to North Korea's support for Russia. Mark Trevelyan and Alexander Marrow, Reuters, November 4

Head of Myanmar’s military government to visit close ally China. Myanmar's junta leader, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, will visit Kunming, China, on Wednesday for regional summits and to discuss economic cooperation amid escalating conflict within Myanmar. This is his first visit to China since the 2021 military takeover, as Myanmar’s junta faces resistance from pro-democracy groups and ethnic militias near the Chinese border. China, Myanmar’s key ally and major arms supplier, seeks stability to protect its strategic interests in the region, while Myanmar’s opposition urges Beijing to reconsider support for the junta. AP News, November 4

Vietnam, Japan step up defence friendship, cooperation. Vietnam’s Deputy Defence Minister, Pham Hoai Nam, hosted a Japanese delegation in Hanoi, emphasizing the positive impact of the ongoing officer exchange program between the two nations' defense ministries. Japan’s Major General Aoi Kei expressed hope for strengthened ties in defense and security. The collaboration, initiated by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, supports peacekeeping, humanitarian efforts, and defense cooperation, particularly within ASEAN forums. Both sides pledged to continue and expand initiatives enhancing mutual understanding and strategic ties. Vietnam News, November 4

Kazakhstan to construct three new airports. Kazakhstan has initiated plans to build airports in popular tourist zones Katon-Karagai, Zaisan, and Kenderli, connecting them to Astana and Almaty. The Civil Aviation Committee outlined construction locations, with Zaisan’s airport on a former military airfield, Katon-Karagai’s between nearby villages, and Kenderli’s near the Caspian Sea. Construction is set to begin in 2025, aligning with tourism growth targets that aim to increase foreign visitors by 75% by 2026. Aliya Haidar, The Times of Central Asia, November 4

N. Korea fires ballistic missile toward East Sea just ahead of U.S. election. North Korea launched an unidentified ballistic missile toward the East Sea on Tuesday, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) reported, with further details under analysis. The timing closely precedes the U.S. presidential election, adding to recent tensions following North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile test into the same waters last Thursday. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, November 5

Japan successfully launches a defense satellite carried by a new flagship H3 rocket. Japan launched the Kirameki No. 3 defense satellite aboard its flagship H3 rocket on Monday, marking a successful mission aimed at enhancing the country’s military communication capabilities. The satellite, an X-band communication system, will support Japan’s Self-Defense Forces with stable, high-capacity data transmission across all branches and international missions. This launch represents the H3’s third consecutive success after an initial failure in 2022. Mari Yamaguchi, AP News, November 4

The Democratic Party holds a rally against Pres. Yoon. Democratic Party of Korea leader Lee Jae-myung addressed supporters at a Saturday rally near Seoul Station, condemning President Yoon Suk Yeol and First Lady Kim Keon Hee for alleged interference in state matters and calling for a special prosecutor. Lee invoked the "2016 candlelight revolution" in advocating for President Yoon’s ouster, citing "irrationality" in governance. Estimated attendance varied, with the Democratic Party claiming 300,000 participants, while police estimated 20,000. In light of tensions, People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon urged Yoon to attend an upcoming budget speech to uphold his accountability to the public. The Dong-A Ilbo, November 4

Malaysia complains to Vietnam over South China Sea reef expansion, sources say. Malaysia lodged a formal complaint with Vietnam concerning alleged expansion activities on the Barque Canada Reef in the South China Sea, a contested area claimed by both nations, according to two unnamed officials. The complaint, sent in early October, focuses on Vietnam’s reported land reclamation at the reef within the Spratly archipelago, where China, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Brunei also hold claims. Malaysia’s complaint precedes recent satellite analyses showing further infrastructure development on the reef by Vietnam. Reuters, November 4

Myanmar junta-linked businessmen head to China ahead of Min Aung Hlaing’s visit. A delegation of Myanmar businessmen tied to the military junta, including Kyaw Win of Shwe Than Lwin Group and Chinese developer Xiao Sen, traveled to China before junta leader Min Aung Hlaing’s planned visit. The delegation’s goal is to secure meetings with Chinese officials and defense sector representatives, as Min Aung Hlaing prepares for regional summits in Kunming and a meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang. The Irrawaddy, November 4

Ishiba Cabinet approval rate tumbles; 61% say no need to resign. The approval rating for Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's Cabinet dropped from 46% to 34% following the October 27 Lower House election, while disapproval increased to 47%, according to an Asahi Shimbun survey conducted November 2-3. Despite the decline, 61% of respondents do not believe Ishiba should resign. Additionally, 64% viewed the ruling coalition’s loss of majority as positive, attributing it largely to the LDP's funding scandal. Opinions on cooperation between parties showed a preference for talks involving the Democratic Party for the People on budget and tax reforms. The Asahi Shimbun, November 4

Tajikistan and Kuwait sign nine cooperation agreements. Tajik President Emomali Rahmon and Kuwaiti Crown Prince Sheikh Sabah al-Khalid Al-Hamad Al-Sabah signed nine agreements to deepen bilateral ties. The pacts include initiatives on foreign ministry cooperation, labor regulation, trade, industry, sports, and tourism, as well as amendments to a double taxation agreement. Both leaders emphasized the importance of these agreements for economic development and regional stability, with Kuwait pledging continued support for infrastructure projects in Tajikistan. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, November 4

Prabowo receives letters of credentials from seven ambassadors. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto accepted letters of credentials from ambassadors of seven countries, including China, Uzbekistan, and Zimbabwe, during a ceremony at the Merdeka Palace in Jakarta on November 4. This diplomatic gesture marks the formal establishment of each ambassador’s mission in Indonesia. The ceremony involved a guard of honor by the Presidential Security Guard and was followed by meetings with the president in the credentials room of the palace. ANTARA News, November 4

Ahead of the US elections, Chinese scholars highlight prolonged US-China competition and propose engaging with Europe as counterbalance. Chinese experts foresee enduring US-China tensions regardless of the election outcome, with predictions that Kamala Harris would maintain a Biden-like alliance approach, while Donald Trump would lean toward isolationism. They propose strengthening China's ties with Europe, particularly if the EU seeks greater autonomy from the US, potentially providing strategic advantages for Beijing. Alexander Davey, MERICS, November 4

ASEAN countries confront Chinese export glut. ASEAN nations are dealing with the fallout from China's oversupply of goods, fueled by the collapse of its property sector and government policies favoring the manufacturing industry. This glut threatens local manufacturing sectors, as increased competition leads to factory closures and job losses, particularly in textiles and automotive industries. While ASEAN has opportunities to benefit from Western tariffs on China, divergent national interests complicate a unified response to the economic challenges posed by China's export surge. Henry Storey, Lowy Institute, November 4

Japan’s surprise election result could spell the return of revolving door leadership. Japan's recent elections have sparked concerns that political instability may lead to a return of "revolving door" prime ministers, reminiscent of frequent leadership changes before Shinzo Abe’s long tenure. With a fragmented political landscape and an increasingly polarized electorate, governing may become challenging, affecting Japan's ability to implement long-term policies. Experts suggest that this political volatility could undermine Japan’s international influence, especially in defense and economic reforms that require continuity. Purnendra Jain, East Asia Forum, November 4

Mongolia Pitches Plan to Build New Capital From Scratch. Mongolia has unveiled plans to create a new capital, New Kharkhorum, near the historic ruins of the ancient Mongol capital, as a solution to Ulaanbaatar's pollution and congestion. The envisioned "smart city" aims for sustainable infrastructure and renewable energy but faces challenges in funding and public skepticism. Scheduled to transfer government offices by 2050, the project shows Mongolia’s efforts to balance historical preservation with modern urban planning. Michael Kohn, The Diplomat, November 4

The Philippines’ Near-Standoff with China at Sabina Shoal: Bolstering Preventive Deployment. In 2024, the Philippines used preventive deployment to deter potential Chinese occupation at Sabina Shoal, deploying a coast guard vessel instead of a military ship to minimize escalation. This tactic, developed since the 2012 Scarborough Shoal standoff, allows Manila to establish presence while adhering to international maritime norms. However, China’s “grey zone” tactics, like blockades, continue to challenge Philippine sovereignty. Improving diplomatic efforts and modernization of coast guard capabilities are recommended to support this preventive approach. Edcel John A. Ibarra, Fulcrum, November 4

The Asia Cable

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