Asia Daily: November 29, 2024
China court jails journalist for seven years on spy charges, family says. Veteran Chinese journalist Dong Yuyu has been sentenced to seven years in prison for espionage by a Beijing court, his family announced on Friday. Dong, 62, was detained in February 2022 while meeting a Japanese diplomat and later charged with spying. His family condemned the verdict as baseless and a threat to press freedom in China. Dong, a former Guangming Daily editor and Harvard Nieman Fellow, had advocated moderate reforms. Press freedom organizations and international voices have called for his release. Laurie Chen and James Pomfret, Reuters, November 29
Philippine president says impeaching the vice president, his rival, would be a waste of time. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. dismissed calls to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte over her alleged misuse of government funds and public threats against him and others. Marcos described the political clash as “a storm in a teacup,” arguing that impeachment proceedings would distract from governance. Duterte, facing legal challenges and a subpoena to explain her remarks, has denied making actual threats. Jim Gomez, AP News, November 29
Russia's ties with N. Korea 'expanding,' including on military: Russian defense chief. Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov stated Friday that Russia's cooperation with North Korea is growing across various sectors, including military collaboration. His remarks came during a meeting in Pyongyang with North Korean Defense Minister No Kwang-chol, as the nations deepen ties under a June defense pact. Belousov emphasized implementing high-level agreements and fostering a strategic partnership, while No highlighted their armies' "combat friendship" as a top priority. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, November 29
China, India find common ground for ‘strategic recalibration’ in post-clash thaw. China and India are mending ties after their 2020 Himalayan border clash, agreeing to troop disengagement and committing to deeper cooperation. Analysts see this as a strategic recalibration prompted by shared challenges, including Western pressures and economic considerations. While India seeks multidimensional foreign policy amidst tensions with the U.S. and Canada, China aims to engage the Global South and stabilize relations. Both nations are expected to expand trade, resume flights, and simplify visas, fostering collaboration in multilateral forums like Brics and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Cyril Ip, South China Morning Post, November 29
Paraguay, one of Taiwan’s 12 remaining allies, says it won’t break ties in favor of China. Paraguay’s Foreign Minister Ruben Dario Ramirez Lezcano reaffirmed his country’s commitment to Taiwan during a visit Friday, stating there are no plans to sever ties for diplomatic relations with China. Paraguay, Taiwan’s only ally in South America, recognizes Taiwan as a country despite strong trade ties with China, valued at $5 billion annually. Ramirez Lezcano also signed a visa-free agreement with Taiwan and discussed market access for Paraguayan agricultural exports. Johnson Lai and Huizhong Wu, AP News, November 29
Kazakhstan limits re-export of Russian grain to Uzbekistan and China. Kazakhstan has restricted the re-export of Russian grain to Uzbekistan and China until the end of 2024, in alignment with its ban on wheat imports from Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries to protect its domestic market. Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov emphasized the importance of this move for local agricultural sustainability. Kazakhstan has also increased tariffs on the transit of goods from EAEU nations, with charges for Russian grain to Kyrgyzstan doubling in 2024. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, November 28
Japan PM vows cross-party approach in Diet to achieve policies. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba committed to bipartisan cooperation in his first policy speech since his coalition lost its House majority in October. Addressing Japan's cost-of-living crisis, Ishiba supported raising the income tax threshold and enhancing transparency after a political funds scandal. He emphasized security ties with the U.S. and dialogue with President-elect Trump while addressing the stationing of U.S. troops in Japan. Noriyuki Suzuki, Kyodo News, November 29
Taiwan says disappointed Trans-Pacific trade pact not considering its membership. Taiwan has expressed disappointment over the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) members not establishing a working group to evaluate its membership application, submitted in 2021. A working group for Costa Rica’s entry was agreed upon during a Vancouver meeting this week, but Taiwan’s bid remains unaddressed. Taiwan urged CPTPP members to avoid political considerations, a likely reference to China's opposition to its membership. Ben Blanchard and Jeanny Kao, Reuters, November 29
Yoon's approval rating falls to 19 pct: Gallup poll. President Yoon Suk Yeol's approval rating declined to 19 percent this week, a 1-point drop from last week, according to a Gallup Korea survey of 1,001 adults conducted from Tuesday to Thursday. Negative assessments remained unchanged at 72 percent, with concerns cited over Yoon's handling of the economy, diplomacy, and allegations against First Lady Kim Keon Hee. The ruling People Power Party saw a 4-point rise in support to 32 percent, while the opposition Democratic Party slipped 1 point to 33 percent. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, November 29
Myanmar junta's Rakhine grip weakening, analyst says. Analysts highlight a decline in the Myanmar military's control over Rakhine State, as tensions with the powerful Arakan Army (AA) and local resistance continue to escalate. The AA, advocating for greater autonomy, has extended its influence across the state, with the junta unable to fully counter the group’s growing dominance. Rakhine residents face worsening humanitarian conditions due to ongoing clashes, restrictions, and military blockades. Observers predict the junta's weakening hold could lead to further fragmentation of authority in the region. Aye Chan Hsu, The Irrawaddy, November 28
LDP lawmakers agree to attend ethics meeting; CDP wary of plan. Twenty-seven Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers implicated in a funding scandal have reversed their stance and will attend the Upper House Political Ethics Hearing Committee. The LDP informed the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) of the decision on Nov. 28, a stark change from earlier refusals. The shift follows the party's election losses and aims to resolve the issue before the 2024 Diet session and Upper House election. CDP officials, however, remain skeptical about uncovering the full truth. Hayato Jinno, The Asahi Shimbun, November 29
Chinese ships gather near island disputed with Philippines, satellite images show. Satellite images reveal approximately 60 Chinese civilian vessels near Thitu Island, a key Philippine outpost in the South China Sea. Philippine Vice Admiral Alfonso Torres described the presence of "maritime militia" ships as typical and not alarming. These vessels, often linked to Beijing’s military strategy, underscore tensions in the region. Thitu Island, close to China's Subi Reef naval base, is pivotal for Manila’s monitoring efforts. Greg Torode and Karen Lema, Reuters, November 28
Kazakhstan, with China’s help, plans to export green energy to Europe. Kazakhstan is advancing its renewable energy exports by developing infrastructure with China's assistance to deliver electricity and green hydrogen to Europe. The collaboration focuses on utilizing Kazakhstan's vast wind and solar potential to generate clean energy and integrate it into European markets through upgraded transmission networks. This initiative is part of Kazakhstan’s efforts to reduce reliance on fossil fuel exports, diversify its economy, and align with global decarbonization goals. Nikola Mikovic, The Times of Central Asia, November 29
3 rounds of referendum 'essential' Nikorn Chamnong, secretary to the joint House-Senate panel on the referendum bill, asserts that three referendums are mandatory for a comprehensive rewrite of Thailand's 2017 constitution, in accordance with a March 2021 Constitutional Court ruling. This statement counters People's Party list MP Parit Wacharasindhu's suggestion that two referendums would suffice, based on discussions with Parliament President Wan Muhammad Noor Matha. Nikorn insists that the court's ruling is binding on parliament, and any deviation could lead to legal challenges against the parliament president. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, November 28
Democratic Party pushes amendment for special prosecutor. The Democratic Party of Korea passed a rule amendment on Thursday to remove the ruling party’s authority in recommending a permanent special prosecutor to investigate First Lady Kim Keon Hee. The amendment, approved with 179 votes in favor out of 281 lawmakers present, reshapes the seven-member Permanent Special Prosecutor Nominating Committee, transferring the ruling party's nominations to non-bargaining organizations, effectively granting the opposition control. The ruling People Power Party plans to file a complaint with the Constitutional Court. The Dong-A Ilbo, November 29
Vietnam, Egypt promote all-round cooperation. Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Nguyen Minh Hang and Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty co-chaired the 10th political consultation during Hang’s visit to Egypt from November 28-29. Plans to expedite agreements on taxation and investment protection and to enhance industry cooperation were discussed. Both countries called for peace in the Middle East and reaffirmed the importance of international law in resolving disputes, including in the East Sea. Vietnam News, November 29
Japan’s Foreign Policy and Security Posture. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who took office in October 2024, is anticipated to adopt a cautious approach toward North Korea due to low domestic approval ratings. Recognizing North Korea, alongside China and Russia, as threats, Ishiba is likely to prioritize strengthening Japan's military security measures. While maintaining the policy of "unconditional meetings with Kim Jong Un" upheld by previous administrations, the Ishiba government is expected to be less proactive in pursuing informal contacts with North Korea. Lee Kitae, KOREA ON POINT, November 29
Asia must brace for the impact and opportunities of trade tensions. Since August 2024, escalating trade tensions have led to new tariffs on Chinese products, with the United States, Canada, and the European Union imposing duties on goods like electric vehicles and steel. US President-elect Donald Trump has proposed even steeper tariffs, which, coupled with potential Chinese retaliation, could strain global supply chains. Countries like South Korea and Taiwan are expected to suffer substantial losses in industries deeply linked to China, while nations less reliant on Chinese inputs, such as Brazil and Turkey, may gain market share. Despite the challenges, rising tariffs also create opportunities for Asian nations to replace Chinese exports in the US market. Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam and Malaysia, has seen increased investment as firms seek to diversify supply chains away from China, driven by concerns over political and trade risks. Stable governance and strong institutions remain critical for countries aiming to attract these opportunities. Takashi Onoda, East Asia Forum, November 30
China’s Wagner? Beijing Establishes Private Security Company in Myanmar. China is collaborating with Myanmar's military junta to establish a joint security company aimed at protecting Chinese investments and personnel within Myanmar. On October 22, 2024, the junta formed a working committee to draft a memorandum of understanding for this initiative. As a key component of China's Belt and Road Initiative, the CMEC includes highways, railways, pipelines, and economic zones connecting China's Kunming province to the deep-sea Kyaukpyu Port in Myanmar's Rakhine State. This corridor is vital to Beijing, providing direct access to the Indian Ocean and bypassing the strategically vulnerable Malacca Strait—a critical chokepoint for China's energy and trade supply lines, especially in potential conflicts with the United States. However, many CMEC projects traverse some of Myanmar's most volatile conflict zones, necessitating enhanced security measures. Antonio Graceffo, Geopolitical Monitor, November 28
Chinese Demand for Rosewood Empowers Some of Africa’s Deadliest Terrorist Groups. The surging demand for rosewood in China has led to extensive illegal logging across sub-Saharan Africa, notably in West Africa and Mozambique. Chinese smuggling networks have been pivotal in this illicit trade, often collaborating with terrorist organizations that control forested regions. These groups, including al-Qaida affiliates in West Africa and insurgents in Mozambique, exploit rosewood trafficking to fund their operations. Despite bans imposed by several African nations to curb rosewood exports, the persistent demand from China continues to drive deforestation and empower militant groups. Adam Rousselle, The Diplomat, November 29
Japan doesn't need a social media ban, but it must protect children. Despite rising cyberbullying and online sexual exploitation among minors, Japan has not implemented robust social media regulations. In 2023, over 730,000 bullying incidents were reported in schools, with cyberbullying cases increasing. A Child Fund Japan survey revealed that one in eight minors received online solicitations from strangers for meetings or sexual images. While countries like Brazil and Australia have enacted strict measures against social media harms, Japan's response remains limited, even as suicide rates among its youth are the highest in the G7 nations. Yuko Tamura, The Japan Times, November 28
Petronas-Petros Dispute: Finding a Way Out. The ongoing dispute between Malaysia's national oil company, Petronas, and Sarawak's state-owned Petroleum Sarawak Berhad (Petros) centers on control over the state's oil and gas resources. Approximately 90% of Petronas' liquefied natural gas cargoes originate from or transit through Sarawak, with 95% designated for export, underscoring the significant economic implications. Given Sarawak's pivotal role in politics, with its coalition, Gabungan Parti Sarawak, being crucial to Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's parliamentary majority, the state wields considerable influence. Historically, Sarawak has leveraged its political position to secure concessions, and the fragmentation of the Malay vote has furthered its 'kingmaker' status. While Petronas may have a strong legal case, pursuing litigation could lead to a Pyrrhic victory, potentially straining federal-state relations and impacting business operations. A collaborative approach, seeking new political and economic arrangements, is essential to resolve the dispute amicably and ensure a sustainable future for Malaysia's oil and gas industry. Amalina Anuar, FULCRUM, November 29
Indonesian Muslims and the Apocalypse: End of the Road for Effective Green Transition? A large portion of Indonesian Muslims perceive climate change as a sign of the apocalypse, which may impede the nation's green transition efforts. A national survey by the Center for the Study of Islam and Society (PPIM) at Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University (UIN) Jakarta revealed that 58.2% of respondents hold this belief. This apocalyptic outlook correlates with reduced engagement in pro-environmental behaviors, both privately and publicly. Additionally, only 20.1% of Indonesian Muslims are familiar with the concept of energy transition, indicating a lack of preparedness for adopting clean energy solutions. At the policy level, President Prabowo's administration has shown limited commitment to environmental issues, with the green economy being a secondary focus linked to national security and self-sufficiency. Consequently, Indonesia ranks low among Southeast Asian nations in energy transition readiness, surpassing only the Philippines and Brunei. Iim Halimatusa’diyah, Aptiani Nur Jannah, and Grace Rachmanda, FULCRUM, November 29