Asia Daily: November 26, 2024
Philippine investigators summon VP Duterte over her public threats against President Marcos. Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte has been subpoenaed to appear before the National Bureau of Investigation on Friday regarding her public remarks threatening to have President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., his wife, and the House Speaker assassinated if she were killed in an unspecified plot. Marcos condemned her statements as a criminal plot, while Duterte claimed they were expressions of concern for her safety. AP News, November 26
China warns NZ against joining AUKUS amid security concerns. Chinese ambassador Wang Xiaolong cautioned New Zealand that joining the AUKUS defense pact would harm its relationship with China and impact regional security. In an interview with Radio New Zealand, Wang described AUKUS as a "Cold War mentality" initiative that could lead to divisiveness or conflict. New Zealand is currently gathering information on potential collaboration under AUKUS Pillar II, which focuses on advanced technologies. The pact, formed by the U.S., Britain, and Australia, aims to counter China’s influence in the Asia-Pacific region. Lucy Craymer, Reuters, November 26
Japan ruling, opposition blocs vow to scrap undisclosed policy funds. Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and opposition parties have agreed to abolish undisclosed policy activity funds, which have drawn criticism for enabling unaccounted spending. However, the LDP remains resistant to banning corporate donations, which opposition lawmakers liken to bribery. The talks come after the LDP lost its House of Representatives majority in October. Both sides aim to revise the political funds control law, though disagreements over transparency and corporate donations persist. Kyodo News, November 26
ASEAN, China beef up ties in defence, security. ASEAN and China are enhancing defence and security cooperation, as highlighted during the 11th ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus in Vientiane. Laos’ Deputy Prime Minister General Chansamone and China’s Defence Minister Admiral Dong Jun emphasized mutual trust and collaboration to address regional security challenges. Since establishing relations in 1991, ASEAN-China ties have advanced in political, security, and economic areas. Laos hopes China will continue supporting ASEAN-led mechanisms to promote peace and stability. Vientiane Times, November 26
Govt keen to downplay Thai-Cambodian sea spat The Thai government expressed confidence that the 2001 memorandum of understanding with Cambodia regarding joint development in the Gulf of Thailand would not lead to mass protests. This assurance follows former People's Alliance for Democracy leader Sondhi Limthongkul's announcement of plans to hold regular public forums starting next year, criticizing Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's administration. Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai stated that the government is prepared to face scrutiny on the matter. Chairith Yonpiam, Bangkok Post, November 26
U.S. expands defense ties with Fiji amid rising tensions in the Pacific. The United States has begun negotiations with Fiji for a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), allowing U.S. forces to train and deploy with Fijian forces. Washington has also committed $4.9 million to modernize Fiji’s military and signed a logistics cooperation deal. These developments occur as Fiji continues its police cooperation with China, reflecting increasing U.S.-China competition in the region. PINA, November 27
Electric vehicle deal with China is not close, top EU trade official says. Sabine Weyand, the EU’s director general for trade, stated that talks with China on resolving the electric vehicle (EV) trade dispute remain stalled, with no agreement on pricing or structural issues. The EU recently imposed tariffs, ranging from 7% to 35.3%, on Chinese EV imports, citing unfair subsidies that threaten Europe’s EV industry. Some EU states have pushed for negotiations, but Beijing has retaliated with probes into EU goods. The dispute has strained EU-China relations and impacted trade in multiple sectors. Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, November 26
Rebel group takes key Myanmar border town and rare earth mining hub in setback for military regime. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has seized Kanpaiti, a strategic border town and rare earth mining hub in northeastern Myanmar, marking another significant defeat for the military government. The capture cuts the regime’s access to rare earth mineral revenues vital to China’s industries. The KIA has urged displaced residents to return, while reports indicate 300 junta troops fled into China. Analysts say the loss is symbolic but unlikely to alter the conflict's trajectory. David Rising, AP News, November 26
Tensions high on Myanmar border as Thai troops demand UWSA withdrawal. Thailand has deployed additional troops along the Myanmar border, demanding the United Wa State Army (UWSA) withdraw from nine bases allegedly on Thai territory. The UWSA, Myanmar’s largest ethnic armed group, controls the disputed areas, which were taken from drug lord Khun Sa in 1996. UWSA spokesperson Nyi Rang confirmed Thailand’s request but urged resolution through government negotiations. The Irrawaddy, November 26
Ukraine's special envoy expected to meet Yoon as early as Wednesday: sources. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov is set to visit Seoul and meet with President Yoon Suk Yeol to discuss North Korea’s troop deployments to Russia and seek South Korea’s support for Ukraine’s defense efforts. Yoon has stated South Korea could consider arms support depending on the level of Pyongyang-Moscow military collaboration. Ukraine seeks anti-aircraft missiles and artillery amid escalating threats from Russia. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, November 27
Trump team weighs direct talks with North Korea's Kim in new diplomatic push, sources say. President-elect Donald Trump’s team is considering renewed direct engagement with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to reduce tensions and restart dialogue. Trump’s previous direct approach with Kim, including three historic meetings, failed to achieve disarmament but left his team believing this method offered the best chance of influencing Pyongyang. Challenges include North Korea’s expanded missile arsenal, closer ties with Russia, and resistance to past U.S. overtures. Trevor Hunnicutt, Reuters, November 26
Chinese warplanes track US Navy aircraft through the sensitive Taiwan Strait. A U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft transited the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday, prompting China to deploy military aircraft and ships to monitor its passage. The U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet stated the transit adhered to international law and demonstrated America’s commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. Beijing criticized the operation, claiming it endangered regional stability. The incident follows heightened tensions, with China sending a record number of aircraft near Taiwan last month during military drills. AP News, November 26
Myanmar rebel army ready for dialogue with junta, with China's help. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), part of an ethnic rebel alliance challenging Myanmar’s junta, has expressed willingness to hold talks after a year of intense fighting along the China-Myanmar border. The TNLA’s statement called for an end to junta airstrikes in northern Shan State and acknowledged China’s mediation efforts. The alliance's previous ceasefire, brokered by China, collapsed in June. China has urged all parties to resolve conflicts through dialogue while supporting peace initiatives. Shoon Naing, Reuters, November 26
Ministry conducts tourism promotion in China. Indonesia’s Tourism Ministry launched the Wonderful Indonesia Sales Mission in Nanjing and Shanghai to boost international arrivals, targeting 14.3 million visitors in 2024. Deputy for Marketing Ni Made Ayu Marthini emphasized China’s importance, noting 935,643 Chinese tourists visited Indonesia from January to September, ranking fourth among source countries. The mission promoted five super-priority destinations, including Lake Toba and Borobudur Temple. Chinese tourists average 10.71 days in Indonesia, spending about $1,333 per trip. Antara News, November 26
Yoon vetoes first lady special counsel bill for 3rd time. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol vetoed a bill calling for a special counsel investigation into corruption allegations involving first lady Kim Keon Hee, marking his third rejection of such proposals. The bill, passed by the opposition-led National Assembly, sought to probe Kim's alleged role in stock manipulation and election interference. Yoon cited constitutional concerns in exercising his veto. A revote, requiring a two-thirds majority, is set for December 10, with opposition parties holding 171 of the 300 parliamentary seats. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, November 26
How the West Can Navigate Sino-Russian Cooperation in the Arctic. The China-Russia partnership has reached unprecedented levels, propelled by mutual strategic interests in Arctic governance and a shared objective of countering Western influence. The Northern/Interaction-2024 exercise practiced anti-submarine warfare and aerial defense, testing advanced interoperability between the two nations’ naval forces and showing their preparedness for joint operations in sensitive regions. Ocean-2024 reportedly focused on simulated defensive strategies to protect vital infrastructure and on offensive amphibious landings on unprepared coastlines. These exercises demonstrate an escalation in joint military capabilities in the Arctic. The West must recognize the strategic implications of this partnership and develop an approach that balances deterrence with engagement, ensuring stability in the Arctic region. Dr. Nong Hong, Institute for China-America Studies, November 26
The New Administration and North Korea: Can Trump and Kim Pick Up Where They Left Off? The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency has sparked discussions about the potential resumption of direct engagement with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. During Trump's first term, the two leaders held unprecedented summits, aiming to address North Korea's nuclear program. However, these meetings did not yield substantial progress toward denuclearization. In the intervening years, North Korea has continued to advance its nuclear capabilities and has strengthened ties with Russia, complicating the geopolitical landscape. The current environment presents challenges for rekindling previous diplomatic efforts, as both nations' positions have evolved, and regional dynamics have changed. Daniel Sneider, Korea Economic Institute of America, November 26
Betting on Itself: China’s Investment in The Pinglu Canal Will Deepen Relations with ASEAN. China has initiated the construction of the Pinglu Canal in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, aiming to increase trade connectivity with Southeast Asia. The canal, stretching approximately 84 miles from the Xijin Reservoir to the Beibu Gulf, is designed to accommodate 5,000-ton vessels and is expected to handle an annual cargo capacity of 89 million tons upon its completion in 2026. With an investment of about $10 billion, the project is a key component of the New Western International Land-Sea Corridor, facilitating more efficient transportation from inland production centers like Chongqing and Chengdu to international markets. The canal is projected to reduce shipping distances by up to 347 miles, cutting transit times from a month to seven to ten days, and saving approximately $725 million annually in transport costs. This infrastructure development is anticipated to boost Guangxi's economic performance and strengthen China's economic ties with ASEAN countries. Ngeow Chow Bing, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 25
Why Indonesia Needs a Blue-Water Navy. Tensions in the South China Sea have exposed Indonesia's limited naval capabilities, with China’s assertive actions near the North Natuna Sea highlighting the need for a stronger maritime presence. Despite ambitions for a blue-water navy capable of regional power projection, Indonesia’s fleet remains small, with only eight long-range combatant ships and aging infrastructure at outer naval bases. Budget constraints further hamper progress, with the navy’s 2025 allocation of $1.32 billion representing less than 15% of the defense budget. To achieve its vision, Indonesia must prioritize investments in ocean-going vessels, expand domestic shipbuilding capacity, and develop supporting infrastructure, while gradually increasing the defense budget to 1-1.5% of GDP. A robust navy would secure critical sea lanes, and bolster Indonesia’s diplomatic leverage in the Indo-Pacific. Alfin Basundoro and Probo Darono Yakti, East Asia Forum, November 27
The True Impact of Allied Export Controls on the U.S. and Chinese Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Industries. Allied export controls targeting China's access to advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment have shaped both countries' semiconductor industries, though not always as intended. While China's push for self-reliance in semiconductors predated the Trump administration's 2018 restrictions, recent controls have complicated China's access to critical technologies, particularly in advanced chip manufacturing. Despite these hurdles, China has leveraged substantial state subsidies and foreign loopholes to boost its domestic industry, though progress remains confined largely to legacy technologies. Meanwhile, U.S. firms have maintained revenue growth in China by offshoring manufacturing to circumvent certain restrictions. Critics argue that export controls incentivize Chinese firms to innovate domestically, but evidence suggests their effectiveness depends on robust implementation and enforcement. Ultimately, China's de-Americanization of its semiconductor supply chain is a long-term priority unlikely to change, and U.S. policy should aim to increase the cost and difficulty of China's technological ambitions. Gregory C. Allen, CSIS, November 26
Be a Positive Disruptor in the Indo-Pacific. The Indo-Pacific faces challenges from increasing collaboration among U.S. adversaries, notably China, Russia, and North Korea, showing the need to defend principles of democracy, freedom, and a rules-based order. Under the Biden administration, the U.S. revitalized alliances like AUKUS, the Quad, and trilateral frameworks (e.g., U.S.-Japan-Australia), increasing inter-regional security cooperation. However, the return of an "America First" approach under Trump raises concerns among allies about transactional alliance management, pressures to decouple from China, and demands for increased defense spending. Despite these challenges, allies like Japan and others in the region must adopt a more proactive role in regional security, as reliance solely on U.S. leadership is unsustainable. Encouraging deeper ties among Indo-Pacific nations, maintaining strategic flexibility without forcing a zero-sum choice with China, and articulating equitable alliances will ensure a resilient and cooperative security framework. Yuki Tatsumi, Stimson Center, November 27
Can Climate Break the Ice for India and Pakistan? Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar's recent visit to Islamabad for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit marked the highest-level Indian diplomatic engagement in Pakistan since 2015. This visit, following Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's participation in the SCO summit in Goa last year, indicates a potential thaw in bilateral relations, which have been largely stagnant since 2019. Both nations are now considering environmental issues, such as severe air pollution, as possible avenues for cooperation. Diplomats from both countries suggest a cautious optimism for reconciliation, with Pakistan emphasizing bilateral parity and India viewing Pakistan as one of several regional players. The shared environmental challenges, particularly heavy air pollution affecting both nations, may serve as a catalyst for renewed dialogue and collaboration. Kunwar Khuldune Shahid, The Diplomat, November 26
Vietnam, China and Rerouting: When Perceptions Matter as Much as Reality. Vietnam's trade surplus with the U.S. has surged, reaching $104 billion in 2023, nearly triple the $38 billion recorded in 2017. This growth has raised concerns about Chinese firms rerouting goods through Vietnam to evade U.S. tariffs. However, recent research indicates that such rerouting is less prevalent than perceived. In 2021, only about 1.8% of Vietnamese exports to the U.S., approximately $1.7 billion, were identified as potential rerouting. Despite this, the perception of Vietnam as a conduit for Chinese goods persists, potentially drawing scrutiny from the U.S. Vietnam faces the challenge of addressing these concerns while maintaining legitimate trade flows. Nguyen Khac Giang, FULCRUM, November 26