Asia Daily: November 22, 2024
China says it is willing to talk with US to push forward bilateral trade. China’s vice commerce minister, Wang Shouwen, expressed Beijing’s willingness to engage in dialogue with the U.S. to promote stable and sustainable economic relations based on mutual respect. Wang emphasized managing differences and expanding cooperation despite concerns over President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs of over 60% on Chinese goods, which could disrupt trade and slow China’s economic growth by up to 1 percentage point. Ellen Zhang and Liz Lee, Reuters, November 22
Russia supplied air defense missiles to North Korea in return for its troops, South Korea says. Russia has supplied air defense missile systems to North Korea in exchange for deploying troops to support its war in Ukraine, according to South Korean security adviser Shin Wonsik. The transfer likely includes long-range missiles and counter-drone systems, aimed at bolstering Pyongyang's outdated air defenses, while experts doubt Russia will transfer advanced nuclear technologies at this stage. Russia has also provided economic aid and satellite support, aligning with North Korea amid shared confrontations with the U.S. and allies. Hyung-jin Kim and Kim Tong-hyung, AP News, November 22
North Korea's Kim accuses US of stoking tension, warns of nuclear war. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un accused the U.S. of provoking conflict and claimed the Korean peninsula faces an unprecedented risk of nuclear war. Speaking at a military exhibition, Kim criticized Washington's "aggressive and hostile" policies and said negotiations had proven futile. Amid criticism of North Korea's military ties with Russia, Kim showcased advanced weaponry, including intercontinental ballistic missiles and drones, while vowing to bolster defense capabilities. Hyonhee Shin, Reuters, November 22
Presidential office dismisses speculation of Cabinet reshuffle next month. South Korea’s presidential office denied reports of a potential Cabinet reshuffle in December, emphasizing that personnel changes require significant vetting and consideration of domestic and external factors. Speculation grew after President Yoon Suk Yeol mentioned ongoing candidate evaluations amid calls to revamp state affairs following declining approval ratings. The finance ministry clarified that no discussions on a supplementary budget are underway, as the National Assembly reviews the 2024 state budget. Kim Han-joo, Yonhap News Agency, November 22
Urgent constitutional application filed to challenge Vanuatu parliament dissolution. Vanuatu's opposition has filed a Supreme Court application challenging President Nikenike Vurobaravu’s November 18 decision to dissolve Parliament amid no-confidence motions. They argue the move prevents scrutiny of the President’s actions and was based on flawed advice from the Council of Ministers. The opposition seeks to reinstate Parliament to debate the motions. Meanwhile, logistical challenges and funding shortfalls complicate holding snap elections, mandated within 30 to 60 days after dissolution. PINA, November 22.
U.S. blacklists 29 more Chinese companies over alleged forced labour in Xinjiang. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security added 29 Chinese firms to the Uygur Forced Labour Prevention Act (UFLPA) entity list, banning imports of products ranging from polysilicon to tomato paste believed to involve forced labour in Xinjiang. Effective November 25, the additions bring the total number of blacklisted companies to over 100. Firms can appeal by proving their supply chains are free of forced labour. Robert Delaney, South China Morning Post, November 22
Taiwan president will visit allies in South Pacific as rival China seeks inroads. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te will visit the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau from Nov. 30 to Dec. 6, bolstering ties with the self-governing island’s South Pacific allies amid growing Chinese influence. China has increased loans, grants, and security agreements with Pacific nations, drawing concern from the U.S., Australia, and New Zealand. Taiwan, under pressure from Beijing's claim to annex it, retains only 12 formal diplomatic allies but maintains strong U.S. ties. China recently secured alliances with the Solomon Islands and Nauru, weakening Taiwan’s presence. AP News, November 22
Repeal of Jackson-Vanik Amendment for Kazakhstan discussed in Washington. The Jackson-Vanik Amendment, a 1974 provision restricting trade with non-market economies that limited Jewish emigration and other human rights, was discussed for repeal as it applies to Kazakhstan. Officials, including Ambassador Yerzhan Ashikbaev, argued the amendment is outdated given Kazakhstan’s 33 years of independence and market-oriented reforms. U.S. lawmakers, including Senator Steve Daines and Congressman Tom Suozzi, highlighted Kazakhstan’s strides in economic modernization and religious freedom. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, November 22
Court rejects petition over Thaksin's political influence. Thailand's Constitutional Court has dismissed a petition alleging that former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra exerted undue influence over the ruling Pheu Thai Party and conspired to undermine the constitutional monarchy. The unanimous decision by all nine judges concluded that the petition did not meet the necessary conditions and criteria for consideration. Thaksin, who returned from 15 years of self-imposed exile in 2023, has consistently denied any involvement in Pheu Thai's affairs. Bangkok Post, November 22
Yoon begins extensive verification for cabinet and staff reshuffle. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has initiated thorough verification processes for potential Cabinet and staff changes following his return from the APEC and G20 summits. Speculation surrounds the possible replacement of Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, with candidates including Joo Ho-young, Kwon Young-se, and Won Hee-ryong. Any reshuffle is anticipated to gain traction after the National Assembly’s budget approval, expected by December 2, with changes potentially unveiled by year-end or early 2024. Na-Ri Shin, The Dong-A Ilbo, November 22
Japan gov't OKs 39 tril. yen economic package to ease inflation pain. Japan’s government approved a 39 trillion yen ($250 billion) package to curb inflation and support struggling households. Measures include subsidies to cap rising energy costs and one-time cash handouts of 30,000 yen to low-income families, with an additional 20,000 yen per child. The plan allocates 12.7 trillion yen to combat cost-push inflation and 19.1 trillion yen to stimulate economic growth, including multi-year investments in AI and semiconductors. Satoshi Iizuka, Kyodo News, November 22
Singapore defense minister warns junta not to use ASEAN for 'politics of retaliation.' Singapore's Defense Minister, Dr. Ng Eng Hen, cautioned Myanmar's junta against exploiting the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for retaliatory politics, stating that such actions could undermine the bloc's centrality and credibility. Dr. Ng noted that the junta's non-compliance with ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus, particularly the call for an immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar, threatens the unity built over two decades of defense cooperation. The Irrawaddy, November 22
China is expanding visa-free entry to more countries in bid to boost economy. China will grant visa-free entry to travelers from nine additional countries, including Japan, Bulgaria, and Croatia, starting Nov. 30, allowing stays of up to 30 days. This brings the total to 38 countries with visa-free access, up from just three before the COVID-19 pandemic. The move aims to boost tourism, business travel, and people-to-people exchanges as part of China’s economic recovery efforts. Japan’s inclusion reflects a recent improvement in bilateral ties. AP News, November 22
Singapore’s Lee Hsien Loong set for first China trip since stepping down as prime minister. Former Singaporean prime minister Lee Hsien Loong will visit China from November 24 to 29, marking his first trip since stepping down in May. Lee, now a senior minister, has visited China over 10 times during his tenure and last met President Xi Jinping in March 2022. Lee’s visit follows recent high-level exchanges, including meetings between Xi and current Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. Yuanyue Dang, South China Morning Post, November 22
Top legislator meets with Cambodian Prime Minister. National Assembly Chairman Tran Thanh Man met with Cambodian Prime Minister Samdech Hun Manet in Phnom Penh on November 22, discussing enhanced bilateral cooperation in economics and trade. Man urged Cambodia to facilitate Vietnamese investments and emphasized the importance of implementing existing agreements. Prime Minister Hun Manet praised Vietnam's economic growth and advocated for stronger trilateral cooperation among Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia, particularly in tourism and trade. Vietnam News, November 22
Is China’s Economy Ready for the Trump Shock? China's preparedness for potential economic challenges from Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency includes strategies to mitigate high tariffs and address supply chain issues. Measures include diversifying export markets, increasing domestic innovation, and leveraging global supply chain advantages, such as developed infrastructure and efficient logistics, which make decoupling difficult. Efforts to boost domestic demand focus on optimizing market structures and stimulating consumer spending. Yu Xiang, China-US Focus, November 22
Does North Korea Really Execute People for Watching South Korean Videos? Claims about executions in North Korea for consuming South Korean media reveal inconsistencies and potential exaggerations. While strict penalties are imposed for distributing foreign content, including South Korean videos, evidence of executions solely for viewing such material remains limited. Emphasizing critical evaluation of human rights reports, the discussion highlights the risks of disseminating unverified information. Martin Weiser, The Diplomat, November 22.
Has the age of populism finally reached Japan? The unexpected reelection of Motohiko Saito as Hyogo governor, despite a prior unanimous vote of no confidence due to a political scandal, raises concerns about the emergence of populist trends in Japanese politics. This development prompts questions about the accuracy of media reports, the influence of social media in spreading conspiracy theories, and the potential shift toward populism and demagogy in Japan's political landscape. Kuni Miyake, The Japan Times, November 22
Thailand-China Visa-Free Policy: Boon or Bane to Tourism? Thailand's implementation of a visa-free policy for Chinese tourists, initiated in September 2023 and made permanent in March 2024, has led to a significant increase in Chinese visitors. Between January and September 2024, Thailand recorded 20 million international tourist arrivals, with Chinese tourists accounting for 5 million—a 110% increase compared to the same period in 2023. However, challenges persist, including concerns over potential misuse of the policy and uncertainties about sustaining growth due to factors like flight availability and safety issues. The policy has also impacted local employment, increasing demand for Chinese language proficiency among Thai workers in sectors such as sales and logistics. Kornphanat Tungkeunkunt, FULCRUM, November 22
Prabowo’s Overtures to China and Ramifications on the South China Sea Dispute. Indonesia's longstanding position has been that it is not a party to the South China Sea dispute, asserting no overlapping maritime boundaries with China and rejecting the nine-dash line's legal basis. However, during President Prabowo Subianto's state visit to China on November 9, 2024, a joint statement indicated an agreement on "joint development in areas of overlapping claims," suggesting a change in Indonesia's stance. This development raises questions about whether this change was a misstep by Indonesia's new foreign minister or a deliberate move by President Prabowo to strengthen ties with China. The implications potentially undermine Indonesia's principled position and affect its relations with China and other Southeast Asian nations involved in the dispute. Ian Storey, FULCRUM, November 22