Asia Daily: November 22, 2023
News
North Korea claims it launched first spy satellite, promises more. North Korea has announced the successful launch of its first spy satellite and plans to launch more, despite global criticism from the United States and its allies. This launch was North Korea's third attempt this year and has led South Korea to consider suspending parts of a 2018 agreement aimed at reducing military tensions. The U.S. has condemned the launch as a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions and a destabilizing act for regional and global security. This development follows a meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin, where satellite-building assistance was discussed, suggesting Russia's possible involvement in the launch. Soo-Hyang Choi and Chang-Ran Kim, Reuters, November 21
Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang pushes plan for stronger China-Russia investment and financing ties. Chinese Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang is advocating for stronger investment and financing ties between China and Russia, focusing on cooperation in non-energy sectors. Ding proposed a four-point plan to enhance collaboration, emphasizing subnational cooperation and practical cooperation in agriculture and transport infrastructure. The plan aims to deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov, leading a delegation including representatives from various Russian economic sectors, echoed the sentiment of strong bilateral relations. Cyril Ip, South China Morning Post, November 21
BRICS condemns Israel war on Gaza in signal to the West. The BRICS group, traditionally focused on economic matters, has condemned Israel's actions in the Gaza conflict, labeling them as 'war crimes'. The virtual summit, led by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, criticized both Israeli and Palestinian actions, emphasizing the impact on civilians. The BRICS group, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, represents significant global economic power and voices from the Global South. The group's growing assertiveness and diverging viewpoints on the Israel-Palestine conflict reflect its evolving role in global politics. Despite varying national interests within BRICS, such as India's less vocal stance and South Africa's vocal opposition, the group's united condemnation marks a notable shift in its approach to political and security issues. Shola Lawal, Al Jazeera, November 21
Dispute with China 'more dire' – Marcos. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has expressed escalating concerns over the situation in the South China Sea, as China expands its territorial claims near the Philippines. Marcos, speaking in Honolulu, highlighted that China's presence is getting closer to the Philippine coast. The tension has escalated with recent incidents, including a blockade by China at Ayungin Shoal and a collision involving Chinese and Philippine vessels. Marcos emphasized the Philippines' commitment to not ceding any territory and stressed the importance of its alliance with the United States, while also seeking to strengthen ties with other nations sharing similar ideals. Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, November 21
China ready to work with Argentina despite president-elect Milei's criticism. China has expressed its readiness to maintain stable relations with Argentina, despite the election of right-wing libertarian Javier Milei, who has been critical of China and Brazil. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning emphasized the positive growth of China-Argentina relations and China's commitment to keeping these relations steady. However, Diana Mondino, potential foreign minister in Milei's government, suggested Argentina might cease interactions with China and Brazil. Despite this, the Chinese foreign ministry underscored the importance of diplomatic relations for economic trade and cooperation, hinting that it would be a significant foreign policy error for Argentina to sever ties with major countries like China or Brazil. Ryan Woo, Reuters, November 21
Expect coming waves of Hong Kong returnees from the UK. A significant number of Hong Kong BN(O) immigrants in the UK, facing unemployment and job mismatches, are likely to return to Hong Kong. Despite high education levels, many have struggled to find suitable work in the UK, often due to language barriers and unacknowledged skill gaps. The BN(O) scheme, designed non-discriminatorily, differs from other immigration routes, requiring a lengthy process for permanent residency and citizenship. This, combined with the increasing anti-immigration sentiment in the UK, may lead many to reconsider their move. The Hong Kong government should prepare for the return of these individuals by ensuring adequate public services and housing. Alex Lo, South China Morning Post, November 21
Myanmar shadow government urges Japan to step up pressure on junta. Zin Mar Aung, the foreign minister of Myanmar's shadow civilian leadership, the National Unity Government (NUG), has called on Japan to intensify diplomatic and economic pressure on Myanmar's military regime. During her visit to Japan, she emphasized the need for Asian countries to implement economic sanctions to amplify pressure on the junta. Aung also requested Japanese humanitarian assistance for displaced people in Myanmar, urging the aid be directed through organizations run by the NUG and ethnic minority groups to ensure it reaches those in need. Kyodo News, November 21
S. Korea, Britain to adopt 'Downing Street Accord' to upgrade ties, expand cooperation. South Korea and Britain are set to adopt the "Downing Street Accord" during President Yoon Suk Yeol's state visit to London, aiming to elevate their relationship to a "global strategic partnership." The accord, commemorating 140 years of bilateral relations, will focus on enhancing cooperation in security, economics, and global issues, including the North Korean nuclear situation and affairs in Ukraine, the Indo-Pacific, and the Middle East. It will also establish a strategic cyber partnership and a partnership for defense capacity cooperation, including joint maritime patrols and military exercises. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, November 21
Philippines launches joint sea, air patrols with US military. The Philippines and the United States have initiated joint sea and air patrols near Taiwan, a move reflecting heightened security engagements and a firmer defense posture by Manila in response to China's activities in the South China Sea. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. described the exercise as a significant step towards ensuring a more secure environment. This development underscores the Philippines' strategic pivot towards closer ties with Washington, contrasting with the previous administration's approach towards Beijing. The patrols are seen as a strong statement by the Philippines regarding the contentious South China Sea issues. Mikhail Flores and Karen Lema, Reuters, November 21
Rebound in financials lifts Indian shares; Fed mins eyed. Indian shares experienced a rise, led by a rebound in the financial sector, following a two-session downturn. The NSE Nifty 50 index and the S&P BSE Sensex both registered gains. This uptick in the market is attributed to expectations that U.S. interest rates may have reached their peak. The IT index, however, settled slightly lower, breaking its recent rally. Analysts anticipate that the stabilization of the U.S. economy and expectations from the Federal Reserve's policy meeting will influence the market's direction. Among individual stocks, Reliance Industries showed significant gains, buoyed by positive brokerage outlooks. Bharath Rajeswaran, Reuters, November 2
Long Form
An Indonesian Constitutional Court Scandal and an Election in Jeopardy. Indonesia's Constitutional Court, under Chief Justice Anwar Usman, recently made a pivotal ruling that could significantly impact the upcoming presidential election and the broader trajectory of Indonesian democracy. The court's decision to consider lowering the minimum age for presidential and vice-presidential candidates from 40 to 35 years comes just ahead of the presidential election scheduled for February 14 next year. This ruling has sparked intense debate and controversy, highlighting the court's influential role in shaping the nation's political landscape and raising questions about the future direction of Indonesian democracy. Aisyah Llewellyn, The Diplomat, November 21
New Government Presents Chance for Peace in Thai Deep South. The ethnic conflict in Thailand's deep south, specifically in the four districts of Patani, may find new hope for resolution with the advent of a new government in Bangkok. This region, with a history of annexation and resistance dating back to the 18th century, has been a site of violence, intimidation, and political strife. The conflict, deeply rooted in issues of territory, cultural identity, and self-determination, has been exacerbated by military rule and religious differences, with the majority Muslim population under the governance of a predominantly Buddhist country. The new government's approach to this complex situation could be pivotal in moving towards peace negotiations, potentially modeled on the Philippines’ Bangsamoro settlement, offering a chance to address the longstanding grievances and aspirations of the Patani people. B A Hamzah, Asia Sentinel, November 21
Anwar Struggles to Boost Malaysian Economy a Year After Victory. A year into his tenure, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim faces challenges in revitalizing the nation's economy. Despite his efforts to promote Malaysia as a stable and vibrant investment destination, Anwar's reform plans are hindered by rising food prices and a weakening currency. His recent appearance at the APEC CEO Summit in San Francisco highlighted his commitment to boosting Malaysia's economic prospects. However, the country's status as a Southeast Asian manufacturing hub and major commodity exporter is being tested by these economic pressures. Anwar's ability to navigate these challenges will be crucial for Malaysia's economic trajectory in the coming years. Norman Goh, Nikkei Asia, November 21
Biden and Xi Are Both Seeing More Value in Stable Relations. The recent San Francisco summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping marked a slight warming in U.S.-China relations. This meeting served as a sharp reminder of the importance of effective communication in preventing the escalation of tensions. The summit highlighted a growing recognition by both leaders of the value in maintaining stable relations. Despite the complex and often strained dynamics between the two nations, this development suggests a potential shift towards more constructive engagement and dialogue, which could have significant implications for international affairs and global stability. Yu Jie, Nikkei Asia, November 21
China’s Self-Inflicted Economic Wounds. China's current economic slowdown, largely driven by policy decisions under President Xi Jinping, is raising concerns about its future growth trajectory. The focus on security and stability over economic dynamism has led to a decline in several key areas: growth is slowing, the population is declining, the property sector faces huge losses, banks are grappling with non-performing loans, and foreign investment is falling. These challenges, reminiscent of Japan's period of stagnation, suggest that China might be entering a similar phase unless there is a significant policy shift. The global economy could suffer if China, a major economic player, does not address these issues effectively. Takatoshi Ito, Project Syndicate, November 21