Asia Daily: November 21, 2024
Southeast Asian defense chiefs discuss regional security with U.S., China and other partner nations. Defense ministers from ASEAN countries met in Laos with counterparts from the U.S., China, and other nations to address regional security challenges. Discussions included Beijing's assertiveness in the South China Sea, Taiwan tensions, and broader maritime disputes. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun attended but did not hold bilateral talks. ASEAN members also reviewed progress on a South China Sea code of conduct, aiming for completion by 2026 despite disagreements. Jintamas Saksornchai and Ken Moritsugu, AP News, November 21
Japan conveys "serious concerns" to China over military activities. Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani met with his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun in Laos to address rising tensions. Nakatani protested China's August airspace violation over Nagasaki's waters and expressed concerns about Chinese military activities near Japan, including around the disputed Senkaku Islands. Dong emphasized China's apprehensions about Japan's stance on Taiwan. Both agreed on the importance of candid discussions and enhancing defense communication, including the bilateral defense hotline launched in 2023. Kyodo News, November 21
U.S. backs Philippine forces in South China Sea with task force. The U.S. military is supporting Philippine operations in the South China Sea through Task Force-Ayungin, which aids intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) efforts. Announced by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, the initiative strengthens coordination between U.S. and Philippine forces near the contested Second Thomas Shoal. National Security Adviser Eduardo Año emphasized that resupply missions and related activities remain Philippine-led, with the U.S. providing ISR support. Karen Lema, Reuters, November 21
Central Asia-China pipeline delivers 500 billion cubic meters of gas. Over 14 years, the China-Central Asia Gas Pipeline has transported over 500 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China, supporting clean energy for 27 provincial regions and Hong Kong. The pipeline has replaced 696 million tons of coal, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 764 million tons. Operational since 2009, the Khorgos gas compressor station is a critical entry point for gas into China and has operated safely for over 5,000 days. It also powers an emissions-free electricity project using waste heat from gas-fired compressors, marking a significant milestone in eco-friendly energy transmission. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, November 21
Double majority backers prevail in referendum wrangle. A joint House-Senate committee in Thailand has voted 13 to 9, with three abstentions, to retain the double majority rule for constitutional referendums. This rule requires that over 50% of eligible voters participate, and that more than half of those votes approve the measure for it to pass. The House had previously advocated for a simple majority system, where only a majority of votes cast is needed, regardless of turnout. The decision to maintain the double majority rule is expected to delay any constitutional amendments until after the current government's term ends in 2027. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, November 21
North Korea and Russia agree to expand their economic cooperation. North Korea and Russia have reached an agreement to deepen economic ties during high-level talks in Pyongyang. Russian Natural Resources Minister Alexandr Kozlov led the delegation, meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Premier Kim Tok Hun. The agreement includes expanding trade and increasing charter flights to promote tourism. Kim has bolstered ties with Moscow amid sanctions, supporting Russia's war in Ukraine and allegedly dispatching troops and supplying military equipment. Kim Tong-hyung, AP News, November 21
Exports increase 5.8 pct in Nov. 1-20 period on strong chip sales. South Korea's exports rose 5.8% year-on-year to $35.6 billion during the first 20 days of November, driven by a 42.5% surge in semiconductor shipments, which accounted for 21.6% of total exports. Imports dropped 1% to $34.8 billion, resulting in an $800 million trade surplus. Exports to China grew 3.5%, while shipments to the U.S. declined 2.5%. Exports to Vietnam and Taiwan increased significantly, by 16.3% and 96.9%, respectively. Kim Han-joo, Yonhap News Agency, November 21
Vietnam, Malaysia issue joint statement on elevating ties to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. During Party General Secretary To Lam's official visit to Malaysia, both nations agreed to upgrade their bilateral relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP). This elevation aims to enhance cooperation across various sectors, including political trust, defense, security, legal and judicial matters, economic integration, trade, investment, and cultural exchanges. Vietnam News, November 21
Hun Sen urges diplomacy on Koh Kut, legal action on extremism. Senate President Hun Sen emphasized the importance of national stability and positive relations with neighboring countries for Cambodia's development. Addressing the annual Buddhist monks assembly on November 21, he criticized opposition groups abroad for inciting protests over sovereignty claims on Koh Kut, an island under maritime boundary negotiations between Cambodia and Thailand. Hun Sen advocated for resolving the Koh Kut issue through diplomatic channels and warned against mobilizing military forces near the area. Niem Chheng, The Phnom Penh Post, November 21
Kyrgyzstan offers digital nomad status to foreign specialists. Kyrgyzstan has introduced digital nomad status for foreign professionals in fields such as ICT, software development, and creative industries. This status allows individuals to work without needing a domicile registration or work permit while enabling them to obtain a personal identification number, open bank accounts, and engage in entrepreneurial activities. Similar efforts are underway in Kazakhstan, which offers a digital nomad visa requiring a verified monthly income of $3,000. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, November 21
KIA seizes Chinese border town from Myanmar junta. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has taken control of Kanpiketi, a town on Myanmar's border with China, despite Chinese pressure to cease hostilities. China has closed border gates to Kachin State and urged the KIA to halt attacks on the Myanmar regime. Reports indicate that KIA forces launched an assault on Kanpiketi on Wednesday morning, securing the town by evening. In discussions with Chinese officials, KIA representatives affirmed their commitment to continue fighting until military rule in Myanmar is dismantled. The Irrawaddy, November 21
Vietnamese, Malaysian navies seek stronger cooperation. Rear Admiral Nguyen Dinh Hung, Deputy Commander of the Vietnam People's Navy, met with Admiral Datuk Zulhelmy Ithnain, Chief of the Royal Malaysian Navy, in Kuala Lumpur to discuss enhancing naval cooperation. The leaders agreed to establish joint maritime patrols and communication channels to maintain regional peace and address non-traditional security challenges. They also committed to sharing information and coordinating on incidents involving fishing vessels to combat illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing. Vietnam News, November 21
Cambodia's flagship canal in hot water as China funding dries up. Cambodia's $1.7 billion Funan Techo Canal project, aimed at linking the Mekong River to the Gulf of Thailand, faces uncertainty as Chinese funding remains unconfirmed. Although China initially pledged to fund 49% of the project, sources reveal Beijing has expressed misgivings over its viability. Experts cite concerns about environmental impacts, financial feasibility, and China's reduced overseas investments amid its domestic economic struggles. Chinese-backed projects in Cambodia. The canal's future and Cambodia's reliance on China remain in question. Francesco Guarascio, Reuters, November 21
AI facial recognition system being tested in two cities in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is testing a national video monitoring system using AI to enhance public safety. Developed by multiple government agencies, the system can recognize faces, detect abandoned objects, and identify vehicles by make, model, and color. During the World Nomad Games, the technology located missing persons and detained 46 wanted individuals in Astana and 30 in Almaty. While advocates highlight its crime prevention benefits, concerns about privacy remain. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, November 21
Non-Thai nationals in Laos to apply for e-visa only starting from January 2025. Effective January 1, 2025, non-Thai nationals in Laos must apply for all types of Thai visas exclusively through the e-visa system, with payments made in Thai Baht at the Royal Thai Embassy's Consular Section. The processing time is approximately 10 to 15 working days from the date of fee payment. The embassy will accept on-site visa applications until November 20, 2024, and will not process any applications from December 21 to 31, 2024, to prepare for the transition. Oulayvanh Sisounonth, The Laotian Times, November 21
Fiji to enter negotiations for Status of Forces Agreement with U.S. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III is concluding his Indo-Pacific tour with a historic visit to Fiji, marking the first by a U.S. defense secretary. During his stay, Austin will meet with Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka and Pacific Islands Forum Secretary General Baron Waqa. The discussions are set to initiate negotiations for a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between the U.S. and Fiji, aiming to enhance military cooperation and facilitate quicker logistical support during emergencies. PINA, November 21
Japan, Britain, Italy eye Saudi Arabia in fighter jet project. Japan, Britain, and Italy are considering Saudi Arabia's inclusion in the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), a joint initiative to develop a sixth-generation stealth fighter by 2035. Discussions took place during the Nov. 19 G20 summit, where British and Italian leaders showed support, while Japan expressed caution, citing potential delays and concerns over confidentiality. Saudi Arabia, which has ties with the U.S., China, and Russia, has already engaged in working-level talks with GCAP members and may join as a partner outside the treaty framework. Shino Matsuyama and Nobuhiko Tajima, The Asahi Shimbun, November 21
New MERICS Index: How Internationally Integrated Is China's Economy? Despite growth in international exchanges, China's economy remains less integrated globally compared to the United States and Japan. China's integration has been primarily driven by tangible economic activities such as trade and foreign direct investment, with less emphasis on financial markets. This reflects Beijing's strategy of advancing economic integration when it aligns with national interests, particularly in securing commodities, investment, and talent. Recent changes toward national security have slowed China's economic globalization, suggesting that it may not achieve the same level of global integration as the U.S. in the near future. While formal policy changes have occurred, actual cross-border exchanges have plateaued since around 2016, indicating that both domestic and international political climates have influenced this trend. François Chimits, MERICS, November 21
Understanding the China-North Korea Relationship. China and North Korea have maintained a complex and evolving relationship since establishing diplomatic ties in 1949. China is North Korea's largest trading partner and has historically provided significant economic and political support. Beijing's primary interest lies in maintaining stability on the Korean Peninsula, viewing North Korea as a strategic buffer against U.S. military presence in South Korea. However, China's stance has been ambivalent regarding North Korea's nuclear ambitions, supporting United Nations sanctions while advocating for diplomatic engagement. In recent years, North Korea has sought to diversify its alliances, notably strengthening ties with Russia, which could potentially diminish China's influence over Pyongyang. This poses challenges for Beijing, as it advances its role in regional stability. Clara Fong, Council on Foreign Relations, November 21
Japan Braces for Trump 2.0. Japan is preparing for potential changes in U.S. foreign policy with Donald Trump's return to the presidency. During his first term, Trump's "America First" approach led to increased tariffs and questioned security commitments, causing concern among Japanese policymakers. The re-election raises questions about the future of the U.S.-Japan alliance, particularly regarding trade agreements and defense cooperation. Japan may need to reassess its strategies to maintain stability and economic growth amid these uncertainties. Matthew P. Goodman, Council on Foreign Relations, November 21
Manila and Beijing Clarify Select South China Sea Claims. The Philippines and China have recently taken steps to clarify their respective claims in the South China Sea, focusing on specific areas of contention. This aims to reduce tensions regarding territorial and maritime disputes. Both nations have engaged in dialogues to delineate their positions, particularly concerning fishing rights and the development of natural resources. These discussions are part of broader efforts to manage conflicts and promote stability in the region, acknowledging the difficulties of overlapping claims and the importance of cooperative mechanisms. Harrison Prétat and Gregory B. Poling, Center for Strategic and International Studies, November 21
Kyrgyzstan-US Relations: 10 Years After the Closure of Manas Air Base. A decade after the closure of the Manas Air Base, Kyrgyzstan's relationship with the United States has evolved. The base, operational from 2001 to 2014, served as a critical logistical hub for U.S. military operations in Afghanistan, facilitating the transport of over 5.3 million soldiers and conducting 33,000 aerial refueling missions. During its operation, Kyrgyzstan's economy experienced substantial growth, with GDP increasing from $1.5 billion to $7.5 billion. However, the base's presence also led to political tensions, including allegations of corruption involving fuel supply contracts linked to the Bakiyev family. Since the base's closure, Kyrgyzstan has sought to balance its foreign relations, maintaining ties with the U.S. while deepening connections with Russia and China. The closure marked a diminishing of U.S. influence in the region, prompting Kyrgyzstan to address a more multipolar foreign policy landscape. Joe Luc Barnes, The Diplomat, November 21
Ishiba Aggravates His Own Political Failures with Diplomatic Faux Pas.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, after assuming office on October 1, has faced criticism for breaking several campaign promises and hastily calling a snap election that resulted in losses for the Liberal Democratic Party. In an attempt to secure his position, he convened a brief special Diet session, leading to the opposition gaining control of eight major committee chairs. This has delayed critical legislation, including a cybersecurity bill deemed vital for national security, now postponed until next year. Additionally, Ishiba's diplomatic conduct at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Lima drew backlash, as he remained seated while meeting several world leaders, a gesture perceived as a diplomatic misstep. These actions have compounded his political challenges, raising concerns about his leadership and Japan's legislative agenda. Edo Naito, The Japan Times, November 20
Should Southeast Asia Try to Pick Up the Pieces On IPEF? The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), initiated by the United States, faces potential dissolution due to changing U.S. interests. Despite this, Southeast Asian nations have the opportunity to advance the framework independently. By leveraging existing regional trade agreements and fostering intra-ASEAN cooperation, these countries can continue to pursue the economic and strategic objectives initially envisioned by the IPEF. This approach would not only sustain momentum in regional integration but also mitigate the impact of external political uncertainties on Southeast Asia's economic landscape. Stephen Olson, FULCRUM, November 21