China
Xi Jinping taps Hu Yaobang’s legacy to rally Communist Party to ‘crack hard nuts’. At a symposium for Hu’s 110th birthday, Xi called reform and opening the “magical instruments” of modernization and urged cadres to remove institutional obstacles, unleash productive forces and fight corruption. He lauded Hu’s integrity and role, aligning with plenum goals on economy, technology and defense. William Zheng, South China Morning Post, November 20
China says trade cooperation with Japan ‘severely damaged’ by Taiwan comments. China’s commerce ministry urged Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to retract remarks on Taiwan, warning consequences and citing “severely damaged” ties. China buys $125 billion of Japanese goods; steps included a 2023 seafood ban and a 2010 rare earth halt. Washington voiced support. Joe Cash and Tim Kelly, Reuters, November 20
China ran campaign to discredit French Rafale fighter after India-Pakistan conflict, U.S. commission says. A bipartisan U.S.-China commission said Beijing mounted a disinformation drive after India used Rafales in May, deploying fake accounts and AI- or game-generated images to damage the jet’s sales. China denied the findings. The report said only three Indian jets were reportedly downed, not all Rafales, and cited Chinese pressure that persuaded Indonesia to halt a Rafale purchase. Shivam Patel, Liz Lee, Reuters, November 20
Chinese research ships, U.S. military active in North Pacific, monitor shows. Five Chinese research vessels, including Yuanwang 7, operated near Kiribati as the U.S. increased exercises, a Guam-based monitor found. Two ships operated east of Guam near the Marshall Islands; nine drills ran August–November, ending with Malabar. The new monitor launched Thursday, tracking vessels in Micronesia. Kirsty Needham, Reuters, November 20
U.S. lawmakers target Chinese chipmaking equipment imports by CHIPS Act grant recipients. A bipartisan House bill would bar CHIPS Act grant recipients from buying Chinese chipmaking tools for 10 years, with a Senate companion planned in December. Waivers are allowed if no allied-made alternatives exist. The restriction covers U.S. imports only, not companies’ foreign operations. Max Cherney, Reuters, November 20
Japan
LDP to discuss 3 non-nuclear principles: policy chief. The LDP will discuss security policies, including non-nuclear principles, amid threats from China and North Korea, chief Takayuki Kobayashi said Thursday. The party, led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, will weigh defense spending scope and equipment transfer rules, compiling proposals by April, Itsunori Onodera said. Topics include unmanned systems, long-range missiles, and nuclear-powered submarines, as Nihon Hidankyo criticized the review. Kyodo News, November 20
Japan to raise visa fees for foreign residents next fiscal year. Japan will increase visa issuance fees for foreign residents, directing new revenue to multiculturalism policies. Fees to change status or reissue for one year or longer will rise by up to 40,000 yen from 6,000, while permanent residency may exceed 100,000 from 10,000, pending a legal cap revision. Foreign residents reached 3,956,619 in June. Kyodo News, November 20
South Korea
Lee proposes Middle East initiative for cooperation on peace, innovation and exchanges. President Lee Jae Myung unveiled the SHINE initiative—stability, harmony, innovation, network and education—to foster peace, deepen ties and expand exchanges. He pledged $10 million for Gaza through the Egyptian Red Crescent and pushed a CEPA with Egypt, spotlighting AI cooperation. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, November 21
Lee set to head for G20 in Johannesburg after wrapping up official visit to Egypt. President Lee Jae Myung will leave Cairo for Johannesburg to attend the G20, addressing inclusive growth and climate change while presenting South Korea’s economic and climate policies on Friday. He will meet MIKTA leaders and France and Germany, underscore cooperation with Africa, then travel to Turkey after a tour that included the UAE. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, November 21
Thailand
Anutin declares readiness for Dec. 12 dissolution, conceding the situation ‘can’t go on’. At a Bangkok seminar, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said a general election is inevitable next year and a minority government cannot function, admitting a no-confidence vote would fail. He is prepared to dissolve the House Dec. 12, accepting unfinished tasks, aiming for short-term public benefits over political gains. The Nation, November 20
Parole would help ‘stressed’ Thaksin, says daughter. Paetongtarn Shinawatra said her father is stressed and parole could aid health after recent setbacks: an appeal of a lese-majeste acquittal and a Supreme Court order to pay 17.6 billion baht over a 2006 share sale. She stepped from politics Aug. 29; he was jailed Sept. 9. Bangkok Post, November 20
Myanmar
Myanmar junta suffers heavy losses as Rakhine counteroffensive intensifies. Clashes surged around Kyaukphyu after election plans, as artillery strikes displaced thousands. After losing a hilltop camp, junta units reinforced with tanks and 1,000 troops but the Arakan Army retook Minpyin. Air raids killed three women and injured five; about 10,000 fled, totaling 50,000 IDPs. Lin Thit, The Irrawaddy, November 20
Myanmar shadow government’s crypto soars after MEXC exchange listing. Myanmar’s NUG listed Spring Development Bank tokens on MEXC on Nov. 14; the SDB price jumped 479.76% to $0.0072 in six days, lifting market cap to $724.7 million. CEO Kelvin T. cited demand and resistance funding near $30 million, while the junta reiterated a ban on crypto as it tests e-CNY and a CBDC. Myo Pyae, The Irrawaddy, November 20
Cambodia
Cambodia urges UN to take note of Thai border violence, rights abuses. Cambodia’s ambassador in Geneva urged UN scrutiny over Thai incursions, encirclements, and refusal to repatriate 18 soldiers, called landmine case legacy mines, cited Nov. 12 killing and Nov. 15 assault. He sought accountability, protection of civilians, and action under international law mechanisms. Men Kiri, Khmer Times, November 20
Philippines
ICC sets Nov. 28 for ruling on Duterte appeal for interim release. The ICC Appeals Chamber scheduled a Nov. 28 open-court announcement on former President Rodrigo Duterte’s bid for interim release, set 10:30 a.m. in The Hague (5:30 p.m. Manila). The appeal challenges a Sept. 26 Pre-Trial Chamber denial under Rome Statute Article 83(4) and Rule 158(2). Duterte remains detained in the Netherlands. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, November 20
Raps related to flood control mess now underway. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said cases against ex-Speaker Martin Romualdez and ex-Rep. Zaldy Co are being referred to the Ombudsman over alleged irregularities in flood control projects. Possible charges include plunder, graft and indirect bribery. Prosecutors filed cases over a P289.4-million Oriental Mindoro dike project. Luisa Cabato, Philippine Daily Inquirer, November 21
Taiwan
Taiwan prosecutors investigate ex-TSMC executive on chip security concerns. Taiwan is investigating retired TSMC executive Wei-Jen Lo, now at Intel, over allegations he took advanced chip data. Prosecutors opened a case after media reports; no charges filed. Economy Minister Kung Ming-hsin cited national security and pledged cooperation while reviewing controls and industry impact. Intel has not announced Lo’s hire; a source said he reports to CEO Lip-Bu Tan. Wen-Yee Lee, Reuters, November 20
President Lai wades into China-Japan seafood spat with sushi post. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te posted sushi photos featuring Kagoshima and Hokkaido seafood after NHK reported China halted Japanese imports to assess Fukushima water monitoring. Post followed Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung’s call to support Japan; Beijing asserted Taiwan remains China’s territory, Global Times said. Sophia Yeh and Hsiao Hsu-chen, Focus Taiwan, November 20
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan projects 5.4% GDP growth in 2026 as government unveils budget framework. The plan targets average 5.3% growth through 2028 and inflation easing to 5–7%. Revenues are projected at 19.2 trillion tenge in 2026, spending at 27.7 trillion, without additional National Fund transfers. The fiscal deficit is set to narrow to 0.9% of GDP by 2028, while government debt declines to 19.6%. Fatima Kemelova, The Astana Times, November 20
Kazakh diplomas to be recognized in China, Japan, South Korea. Kazakhstan ratified the UNESCO Asia-Pacific recognition convention on Nov. 19, enabling degree recognition in China, Japan, South Korea and other members. The Tokyo Convention requires national information centers, streamlines evaluations, and permits refusals when substantial differences exist. Kazakhstan reserved on nontraditional or incomplete programs. Membership now totals 12 states. Fatima Kemelova, The Astana Times, November 20
Uzbekistan
New York mayor Eric Adams discusses expanding economic ties during visit to Uzbekistan. Adams met Uzbekistan’s Chamber of Commerce on Nov. 19 to pursue trade and investment links with New York. Proposals included NYSE collaboration, schools and accelerators with U.S. universities, a vocational college in Tashkent, and a partnership with Tashkent’s mayor. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, November 20
Uzbek foreign minister meets with China’s foreign minister in Tashkent. Bakhtiyor Saidov met Wang Yi in Tashkent to discuss cooperation and toured the Center of Islamic Civilization, stressing preservation of regional scholarly heritage and deeper cultural and scientific links. The Nov. 20 visit underscored ongoing exchanges and alignment with broader bilateral priorities and economic cooperation. Uzbekistan Daily, November 20
East Asia
The New Soft-Power Imbalance: China’s Cautious Response to America’s Retreat. U.S. soft power has eroded under President Trump as aid programs shrink, visas tighten, and alliances fray, creating perceptions of an American “soft power suicide.” China’s relative appeal rises by contrast, built on trade, infrastructure, training and easier access for visitors, especially in parts of the global South, yet Beijing is cutting development lending, revising the Belt and Road toward smaller projects and only selectively replacing USAID-style assistance. Chinese diplomacy stresses noninterference, multipolarity and contrasts with Western “hegemony” rather than offering a detailed governance model. Polls show modest gains for China but deep regional variation and persistent distrust of its leadership and debt risks, leaving Beijing a cautious, passive beneficiary of U.S. retreat. Maria Repnikova, Foreign Affairs, November 20
China leverages paperwork to ration rare earths. China uses newly intensified export licensing and customs procedures to ration rare earths and related technologies, disrupting global supply chains and advancing geopolitical aims. April 2025 rules for seven rare earths and magnets created severe licensing backlogs and drove magnet exports to Japan and South Korea down over 90 per cent, while a “one batch, one licence” requirement and intrusive inspections stretched delays to months. Expanded October measures extend controls to additional rare earths, semiconductor inputs, military end-uses and foreign re-exports containing even small shares of Chinese-origin materials, giving Beijing detailed visibility into firms’ operations. Manufacturers face persistent uncertainty, rising compliance costs and pressure to diversify, even as alternative supply chains in the United States and Australia develop slowly. Kevin Thow, East Asia Forum, November 20
China’s long road from property speculation to psychological security. China has contained the immediate financial risks of its property bust, but a protracted housing slump now weighs heavily on growth, local finances, and household psychology. Unsold inventories are soaring, new construction has stalled, and shrinking real estate investment is projected to shave at least 0.25 percentage points from annual GDP through 2030, with broader knock-on effects. Xi Jinping’s drive for “common prosperity” favors affordable, quality housing over speculative bubbles, yet falling prices erode household wealth and curb consumption. With equities unable to replace real estate as a trusted store of value, restoring confidence in a post-property era remains crucial and difficult. David Tingxuan Zhang, Nikkei Asia, November 20
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan: The five years that could rewrite US-China power. The blueprint for China’s 15th Five-Year Plan is framed as a potential turning point in long-anticipated “catch-up” with the United States, targeting economic scale, technological autonomy and military near-equality. Despite a nominal GDP gap, China already leads in manufacturing output and many industrial indicators and could reach over 80 per cent of U.S. GDP by 2030. The plan consolidates a parallel high-tech ecosystem after Made in China 2025, deepening domestic supply chains and dual-use innovation under U.S. export pressure. Militarily, accelerated naval building, new carriers, hypersonic and unmanned systems aim at deterrence equivalence inside the first island chain. If these trajectories hold, the global order could evolve into a dual power centre, challenging Western complacency. Deng Yuwen, ThinkChina, November 20
China Is Worried About AI Job Losses. China’s slowing economy, high youth unemployment, and fragile low-skilled labor market intersect with an ambitious “AI+” strategy that targets near-universal AI adoption by 2030. Beijing views AI as essential for addressing domestic challenges and long-term growth but recognizes that automation threatens graduates and migrant workers already pushed into precarious gig work. Authorities under Xi Jinping, emphasizing “common prosperity,” have shown willingness to restrain powerful sectors and algorithmic systems to mitigate social harm. Early signals, including AI+ references to protecting employment and proposals for tax incentives, reskilling and limits on job-displacing uses, suggest a calibrated rollout prioritizing stability over headline AI dominance. Marianne Lu, Foreign Policy, November 20
Nigeria Is Turning Into a U.S.-China Battleground. Trump’s threats of military action against Nigeria over violence against Christians intensify U.S.-China rivalry in Africa’s most populous state. Beijing publicly rejects using religion and human rights to justify coercion and offers security assistance, appealing to Abuja’s preference for noninterference even as China protects major trade, mining, and timber interests. Nigerian analysts warn that both powers pursue their own strategic and economic goals, while foreign competition may fuel insecurity around resources. Many Nigerians resent exploitative Chinese mining, yet some welcome U.S. pressure to confront religiously targeted attacks, highlighting deep domestic divisions and fears of becoming a pawn in great-power politics. Patrick Egwu, Foreign Policy, November 20
Golden Dome for America: Assessing Chinese and Russian Reactions. The Trump administration’s Golden Dome order envisages a layered U.S. missile defense able to counter not only “rogue states” but also Chinese and Russian strategic forces, prompting fears of eroded second-strike capability and a destabilizing U.S. quest for “absolute security.” Chinese and Russian officials condemn prospective space-based interceptors as violating the Outer Space Treaty and accelerating an arms race, even as both countries pursue their own contentious orbital systems. Analysts in Beijing and Moscow doubt Golden Dome’s technical, industrial and fiscal feasibility and its durability beyond Trump, yet expect it to spur asymmetric countermeasures, including Chinese nuclear buildup, hypersonic and orbital systems and Russia’s novel delivery platforms and antisatellite assets, while both powers seek to politically delegitimize U.S. defenses. Raymond Wang and Lachlan MacKenzie, Center for Strategic and International Studies, November 20
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asian Countries Engaging in Export Circumvention: Not So Fast. U.S. threats of an additional 40 per cent tariff on suspected transshipped goods have pushed export circumvention to the forefront of Southeast Asian trade policy debates. Export circumvention typically involves Chinese goods imported into Cambodia, Thailand, or Vietnam and quickly re-exported to the United States under unchanged product classifications, generating larger trade deficits with China and surpluses with the US. Aggregate figures show such patterns, but disaggregated data reveal strong correlations only in textiles for Cambodia and Vietnam and weak ones in Thai machinery, where substantial local processing and multinational production networks dominate. Policymakers therefore need case-by-case, product-level investigations rather than broad tariff surcharges. Archanun Kohpaiboon and Ratchanon Ketramrit, FULCRUM, November 20