Asia Daily: November 20, 2024
Xi Jinping meets with Brazilian president Lula, signing over 30 agreements. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva marked 50 years of diplomatic relations by signing over 30 agreements during a state visit in Brasilia. Key deals included China opening its market to Brazilian sorghum, sesame, and fresh grapes, addressing long-standing trade goals. A memorandum was also signed with Chinese firm SpaceSail to provide satellite internet services, reducing Brazil’s dependence on foreign providers like Starlink. Talks also covered expanded agricultural exports, though delays are expected until 2025 due to health protocol updates. Igor Patrick and Mark Magnier, South China Morning Post, November 20
Thaksin petition is dismissed by OAG. The Office of the Attorney General (OAG) has dismissed a petition accusing former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the Pheu Thai Party of seeking to overthrow the constitutional monarchy. Attorney General Phairach Pornsomboonsiri informed the Constitutional Court that the case lacked grounds for such charges. Despite the OAG’s dismissal, the court will continue reviewing the allegations. Wassayos Ngamkham, Bangkok Post, November 20
EBRD supports water infrastructure upgrades in northern Kyrgyzstan. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has committed up to €17 million to improve water infrastructure in Kemin, Shopokov, and Talas in northern Kyrgyzstan. The funding includes a €7.6 million loan and a matching grant to modernize water supply systems, upgrade pumping stations, install water meters, and rehabilitate wastewater and sewerage systems. Additionally, a €1.8 million technical cooperation grant will support project implementation and utility corporate development. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, November 20
Indonesia can reach net zero emissions before 2050, president says. President Prabowo Subianto announced that Indonesia aims to achieve net zero emissions before 2050, a decade earlier than its previous target. Speaking at a G20 forum, he outlined plans to retire all coal and fossil-fuel power plants within 15 years and build 75 GW of renewable energy capacity. Prabowo highlighted Indonesia’s abundant solar energy potential and other renewable sources. As one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters and a leading coal exporter, Indonesia is also home to vast rainforests that play a key role in carbon absorption. Stefanno Sulaiman, Reuters, November 20
North Korea supplies artillery to Russia, troops engage in combat, South Korea says. North Korea has sent artillery systems, including 170mm self-propelled guns and 240mm rocket launchers, to Russia, alongside thousands of troops, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) told lawmakers. The NIS also noted that North Korea likely dispatched personnel to train Russians on using the unfamiliar weaponry. This marks the latest expansion of military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow amid their confrontations with the U.S. and its allies. Hyung-jin Kim and Kim Tong-hyung, AP News, November 20
NA members request govt to resolve financial crisis. Laos' National Assembly (NA) members convened in Vientiane, urging the government to address pressing socio-economic issues. Members called for increased agricultural productivity to reduce imports and boost exports, with suggestions to expand commercial crops like lentils. Concerns were raised about lax discipline among civil servants and inadequate salary increases, with a proposed raise for 2025 deemed insufficient against the rising cost of living. Additional issues included inflation, the need for better education and healthcare. Vientiane Times, November 20
Myanmar junta boss says he promised Chinese, ASEAN leaders to hold ‘fair election’. Myanmar’s junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, pledged to hold a free and fair election with international observers during discussions with Chinese and ASEAN leaders in China. He stated that 63% of a national census has been completed, aiming for full completion by year-end, and announced plans to implement a proportional representation system. Despite similar promises since the 2021 coup, no specific election date has been confirmed, though the election is tentatively expected next year. Maung Kavi, The Irrawaddy, November 20
Democratic Party leader Lee indicted on embezzlement. South Korea’s Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung has been indicted for allegedly misusing 165.3 million won in public funds during his tenure as Gyeonggi Province governor. The charges include using an official vehicle for his wife and falsely documenting personal expenses, such as food and fruit, as official expenditures. This marks Lee’s sixth indictment, adding to four ongoing trials. Prosecutors proceeded after Lee ignored multiple summons, citing scheduling conflicts. Dong-Jun Heo, The Dong-A Ilbo, November 20
Prak Sokhonn reappointed as Cambodia’s foreign minister. Cambodia’s National Assembly unanimously approved Prak Sokhonn as foreign minister on Wednesday, succeeding Sok Chenda Sophea, who remains deputy prime minister. Prime Minister Hun Manet congratulated Prak Sokhonn, who previously held the roles of deputy prime minister and foreign minister from 2016 to 2023. AP News, November 20
LDP, Komeito, DPP compromise on economic stimulus package. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito reached an agreement with the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) on a stimulus package to boost income and ease living costs. Key measures include raising the income tax threshold from 1.03 million yen ($6,600), cutting gasoline taxes, and increasing take-home pay. This consensus paves the way for the supplementary budget’s passage in the upcoming extraordinary Diet session. Kenji Izawa, The Asahi Shimbun, November 20
Japan says it will watch China’s military activity after Beijing admits violating Japanese airspace. Japan is closely monitoring China’s military movements following an admission that a Chinese Y-9 reconnaissance plane unintentionally entered Japanese airspace on August 26 due to turbulence. The incursion near Kyushu prompted Japan to scramble fighter jets and lodge a formal protest. China assured Japan it would prevent further violations, though Japanese officials deemed the breach unacceptable and a serious violation of sovereignty. Mari Yamaguchi, AP News, November 20
S. Korea, U.S., Japan unveil secretariat establishment, decry N.K.-Russia decision to expand Ukraine war. Leaders of South Korea, the U.S., and Japan announced the creation of a trilateral secretariat to strengthen cooperation on security, technology, and economic initiatives. The secretariat, rotating presidency every two years, aims to coordinate shared commitments and address threats in the Indo-Pacific. The leaders reaffirmed their commitment to Korean Peninsula denuclearization and continued collaboration despite political transitions. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, November 20
Vietnam attends ASEAN-US Defence Ministers’ Informal Meeting. Vietnamese Defence Minister General Phan Van Giang attended the ASEAN-U.S. Defence Ministers’ Informal Meeting on November 20 in Vientiane, Laos. Co-chaired by Lao Deputy Prime Minister General Chansamone Chanyalath and U.S. Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin, the meeting focused on enhancing ASEAN-U.S. defence ties. Minister Giang reaffirmed Vietnam’s commitment to ASEAN-U.S. defence activities, particularly under the ADMM+ framework. Vietnam News, November 20.
Reinterpreting Kazakhstan as a "Middle Power". Kazakhstan is leveraging its strategic location, economic potential, and diplomatic approach to establish itself as a middle power in Eurasia. At the 2024 Astana Economic Freedom Conference, experts highlighted three key developments shaping this ambition: adopting Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), expanding transportation corridors, and deepening global economic integration. A CBDC could modernize Kazakhstan’s financial systems, reduce reliance on foreign currencies, and attract investments in emerging sectors like green energy and technology. Strengthened Eurasian transport links, such as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, improve Kazakhstan’s role as a logistics hub connecting East and West. Efforts to diversify its economy, integrate into global value chains, and address vulnerabilities tied to natural resource dependence are vital to dealing with global disruptions. These strategies position Kazakhstan to influence regional and global economic dynamics while reinforcing its middle-power aspirations. Rafis Abazov, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, November 20.
China's Role in the G20 and Beyond. China's engagement in the G20 has evolved since the first Leaders' Summit in 2008, with its economy growing from $5 trillion to nearly $14 trillion by 2019. This rapid expansion has positioned China as a central figure in global economic discussions, particularly within the G20 framework. The G20's strength lies in accommodating diverse pathways toward consensual policy goals, a principle that has facilitated China's active participation. As the global economy becomes more complex, China's role in the G20 is expected to continue expanding, influencing international economic policies and improving multilateral cooperation. Sourabh Gupta, Institute for China-America Studies, November 20
Pakistan’s Security Challenges Threaten to Undermine Its Relationship with China. The longstanding alliance between China and Pakistan faces strain due to escalating security threats targeting Chinese nationals and projects within Pakistan, particularly those associated with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Despite Pakistan's efforts to improve security, persistent attacks by groups like the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have raised concerns about Islamabad's capacity to safeguard Chinese interests. China has increasingly expressed frustration, publicly demanding more robust security measures and hinting at deploying its own security personnel to protect its nationals. The continuation of such security challenges risks damaging bilateral relations and could jeopardize future Chinese investments in Pakistan. Osama Ahmad, South Asian Voices, November 20
Indonesia’s Economic Relationship with China Needs a Course Correction. Indonesia’s economic ties with China face increasing scrutiny due to a persistent trade deficit and rising competition from Chinese imports. While Chinese investments, primarily in the mining sector, boost exports and meet China’s demand for raw materials, they overshadow struggling domestic industries like textiles, electronics, and petrochemicals. Public concerns about Indonesia’s reliance on China have intensified following protective measures such as proposals for steep tariffs and the blocking of Chinese e-commerce platforms. Critics highlight structural issues, including declining manufacturing competitiveness, deflation, and job losses. Policymakers are urged to adopt a balanced strategy that diversifies investments, strengthens vulnerable sectors, and integrates Indonesia into global supply chains without retreating from international trade norms. Mochammad Faisal Karim, East Asia Forum, November 20
ASEAN’s Elusive Code of Conduct for the South China Sea. ASEAN’s efforts to address disputes in the South China Sea have been incremental, shaped by regional tensions and China’s increasing assertiveness. The 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties marked a key step, increasing cooperation despite distrust and laying groundwork for a legally binding code of conduct. However, unresolved issues like geographical scope, binding provisions, and external power involvement have stalled progress. China’s expansive claims, military activities, and resistance to external partnerships contrast with ASEAN’s calls for adherence to international law and freedom of navigation. Delays in finalizing the code benefit China’s strategic position, while ASEAN grapples with internal divisions and geopolitical complexities. Jaime Naval, East Asia Forum, November 21
Is China Ready for the Trump Trade War 2.0? China faces the prospect of a renewed trade war as U.S. President Donald Trump proposes a 60% tariff on Chinese imports. This move could be a tactic to negotiate concessions or part of a broader strategy to decouple the U.S. economy from China. Potential U.S. demands include reducing Chinese exports, increasing imports of U.S. agricultural products, and exerting influence over nations like Russia and North Korea. China's response may involve retaliatory tariffs, diversifying trade partnerships, and bolstering domestic consumption to mitigate the impact on its economy. Yan Liang, The Diplomat, November 20
Indonesia’s PLN and the Clean Energy Conundrum. Indonesia’s state-owned utility, PLN, reported a 2023 profit of $1.4 billion, supported by $9 billion in government subsidies to bridge production costs and consumer prices. Independent developers added over 17,500 MW of generating capacity between 2015 and 2023, reducing PLN’s share of electricity generation from 75% to 60%. However, PLN faces challenges in integrating renewable energy sources like solar due to infrastructure and regulatory limitations designed for traditional energy. James Guild, The Diplomat, November 20