Asia Daily: November 19, 2024
A surge in mass attacks has killed dozens in China in recent months. A wave of mass attacks in China has left dozens dead and injured since September, with incidents involving vehicles plowing into crowds and knife attacks targeting random victims. On Nov. 19, a driver struck students at a primary school in Hunan province, causing non-life-threatening injuries. Days earlier, a knife attack at a vocational school in Yixing killed eight and injured 17. On Nov. 11, a car attack in Zhuhai killed 35, reportedly driven by a man angry over a divorce settlement. Authorities link these attacks to personal grievances, a recurring motive in such incidents, which have often targeted schools. AP News, November 19
U.S. advisory panel on China backs repeal of preferential trade status. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) has urged Congress to repeal China’s preferential trade status, citing practices like intellectual property theft and market manipulation. Revoking permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) could increase tariffs on Chinese goods and subject trade practices to annual review, leveraging national security exceptions under WTO rules. The commission also recommended reforms targeting Chinese e-commerce firms and increased scrutiny of U.S. investments in China. Bochen Han, South China Morning Post, November 19
Kazakhstan and Serbia strengthen ties despite different geopolitical paths. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev visited Serbia, meeting President Aleksandar Vučić to discuss trade and partnerships. The two nations signed agreements, including a 2025 military cooperation plan. Despite differing geopolitical affiliations, both countries back Ukraine’s territorial integrity while maintaining ties with Russia. Trade rose by 23% last year to $91 million, with growing Serbian investment in Kazakhstan. Nikola Mikovic, The Times of Central Asia, November 19
Taipei ready to work with the new Haiti government: MOFA. Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) has expressed readiness to collaborate with Haiti's new government, following the appointment of Alix Didier Fils-Aime as interim prime minister on November 10. Ambassador to Haiti Hu Cheng-hao attended the inauguration, affirming Taiwan's commitment to assist Haiti in restoring order amid ongoing gang-related violence. Despite recent security challenges, Taiwan's embassy in Port-au-Prince remains operational, maintaining close contact with local authorities and ensuring the safety of Taiwanese nationals. Lee I-chia, Taipei Times, November 20
Xi says China ready to continue financial cooperation with Argentina. Chinese President Xi Jinping met Argentine President Javier Milei at the G20 Summit, pledging to deepen financial cooperation and promote economic stability in Argentina. Xi proposed expanded collaboration in energy, mining, agriculture, and Belt and Road projects, emphasizing shared benefits and long-term partnership. Milei thanked China for its support, reaffirmed Argentina’s adherence to the one-China principle, and welcomed further Chinese investment under a stable business environment. Xinhua, November 20
Ukraine's Zelenskyy says North Korean troop contingent in Russia could grow to 100,000. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that the number of North Korean troops stationed in Russia could increase to 100,000, up from the current 11,000 near Ukraine’s borders. He accused Russia of relying on North Korean support, including troops and weaponry, for its invasion of Ukraine. South Korea's spy agency recently reported that North Korean soldiers had participated in combat against Ukrainian forces. Earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a strategic partnership treaty with North Korea, which includes a mutual defense clause. Max Hunder, Reuters, November 19
45 pro-democracy activists get jail time in Hong Kong’s biggest national security case. A total of 45 activists and ex-lawmakers were sentenced to four to 10 years in prison under Hong Kong's national security law for organizing a 2020 unofficial primary election. Prosecutors claimed the effort aimed to paralyze the government and force leadership changes. Legal scholar Benny Tai received the longest sentence of 10 years, while former student leader Joshua Wong was sentenced to over four years. Many activists had been detained for over three years prior to sentencing. Kanis Leung and Zen Soo, AP News, November 19
China puts leader of MNDAA under house arrest in Kunming. Chinese authorities have placed Peng Daxun, leader of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), under house arrest in Kunming to pressure his forces to withdraw from Lashio, a city seized from Myanmar’s military junta in August. Peng, confined after refusing Chinese demands, leads one of several ethnic armed groups resisting the junta in northern Myanmar. Beijing, concerned about instability along its border, has also pressured allied groups like the United Wa State Army to halt resource support for the MNDAA. The Irrawaddy, November 19
China says Myanmar rebel chief in Yunnan for medical care, contrary to detention reports. Beijing stated that Peng Deren, leader of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), is in Yunnan for medical treatment, refuting reports that he is under house arrest. Peng, also known as Peng Daxun, has reportedly remained in contact with commanders in Myanmar during his stay. The MNDAA, part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, has been engaged in conflict with Myanmar’s junta and recently claimed control of the Kokang region. Victoria Bela, South China Morning Post, November 19
Joint panel to thrash out differences on referendum. A House-Senate committee in Thailand is set to resolve disagreements over the referendum bill, particularly concerning the voting threshold required to pass a referendum. The Senate had reinstated the double majority rule, which mandates that over 50% of eligible voters participate and that a majority of those approve the referendum. In contrast, the House favored a simple majority of votes cast. Committee secretary Nikorn Chamnong proposed a "one and a half" majority as a compromise, aiming to find a middle ground. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, November 19
Philippines' Marcos says discussed alliance in call with Trump. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. described his call with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump as "very friendly," focused on strengthening U.S.-Philippines ties amid regional security challenges. Marcos, working to restore ties after his predecessor’s hostility, noted Trump asked about his mother, Imelda Marcos, during the conversation. Both leaders emphasized the importance of their alliance as tensions with China persist over territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Mikhail Flores and Karen Lema, Reuters, November 19
Beijing, Shanghai announce tax breaks to boost ailing property markets. Beijing and Shanghai introduced tax incentives to revive China’s struggling property sector, including exemptions from value-added tax on homes held for over two years and higher deed tax thresholds for larger properties. These measures follow recent nationwide efforts, including lower down payment ratios and relaxed purchase restrictions, as policymakers seek to stabilize a sector that once drove a quarter of economic activity. Liangping Gao and Joe Cash, Reuters, November 19
Kazakhstan: Officials resorting to press gangs to curb draft evasion. Kazakhstan is employing press gangs to address widespread draft evasion, a response to persistent hazing and abuse within its military. Over the past three years, 270 servicemen have died during service, with 86 suicides since 2020, often linked to the Soviet-era practice of dedovshchina, where senior soldiers bully new conscripts. Despite efforts to eradicate hazing, incidents continue, leading many young Kazakhs to avoid conscription. In response, authorities have intensified conscription efforts, including forcibly enlisting individuals in public spaces. Almaz Kumenov, Eurasianet, November 19
Political Change in Mauritius Carries Regional Importance – Especially for India. The electoral defeat of Mauritius’s Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth, following his triumph in the Chagos Islands sovereignty dispute, shows the widespread discontent over economic challenges, political scandals, and a growing narco-economy. Opposition leader Navin Ramgoolam’s landslide victory signals political change in the Indian Ocean nation, raising questions about its relations with India amid the latter's ties with regional neighbors like the Maldives and Sri Lanka. While Mauritius has deepened ties with China through trade agreements, its relationship with India remains critical, bolstered by recent infrastructure projects on Agalega Island under India’s "Security and Growth for All" policy. Despite leadership changes, India’s role as a strategic maritime partner positions it to sustain strong bilateral ties with Mauritius. Samir Bhattacharya, Lowy Institute, November 19
Would U.S. Tariffs Shift Beijing's Focus to Consumption? The imposition of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods is unlikely to prompt Beijing to pivot its economic strategy toward domestic consumption. China's economic model has long been export-driven, with substantial investments in manufacturing and infrastructure. Transitioning to a consumption-led economy would necessitate significant structural reforms, including improving social safety nets and reducing income inequality. However, such changes are complex and may not align with the Chinese government's immediate objectives. Therefore, while U.S. tariffs may impact trade dynamics, they are not expected to fundamentally alter China's economic focus. Michael Pettis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 18
A 10 Trillion RMB Accounting Exercise. China's recent announcement of a 10 trillion RMB stimulus package, initially perceived as a large economic boost, has been revealed as primarily an accounting maneuver with limited fiscal impact. The government's strategy focuses on addressing local government debt, which has escalated to over 60 trillion RMB by the end of 2023, accounting for nearly 50% of GDP. When including additional liabilities from local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), total local debt ranges between 75% and 111% of GDP. Instead of injecting new funds into the economy, the plan reallocates existing resources to manage this debt, potentially reducing local government spending and exerting further downward pressure on economic activity. This approach suggests a continued reliance on exports for growth, rather than implementing demand-side measures to stimulate the domestic economy. Victor Shih, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 18
Biden's Legacy on China. President Joe Biden's administration has effectively countered China's regional ambitions through strategic alliances and partnerships. Domestically, investments totaling $2 trillion have been directed toward infrastructure, high technology, and climate initiatives, aiming to enhance U.S. competitiveness. Internationally, the administration has strengthened bilateral alliances by increasing interoperability and conducting joint exercises, and has established new frameworks such as the Japan-South Korea-U.S. and AUKUS trilaterals. The institutionalization of the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S.) and the elevation of partnerships with nations like Vietnam and Indonesia to comprehensive strategic levels have further solidified regional ties. Despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, the U.S. maintained its focus on China and Asia, integrating NATO and the G-7 into its Indo-Pacific strategy. This has positioned the U.S. to effectively address China's challenges and ambitions. Robert Sutter, The Diplomat, November 19
Japan's Nuclear Future: Caught Between Climate Goals and Reality. Since the 2011 Fukushima disaster, Japan's nuclear energy contribution has declined to approximately 8% of its total electricity supply, falling short of the 20-22% target set for 2030. This shortfall has led to increased reliance on fossil fuels, complicating efforts to meet carbon reduction commitments. The government is now considering extending the operational lifespan of existing reactors and constructing new ones to bridge this gap. However, challenges such as public opposition, regulatory hurdles, and the high costs associated with nuclear energy persist. Balancing the need for a stable energy supply with environmental objectives remains a complex issue for Japan's energy policy. Parul Bakshi, The Japan Times, November 19
Black Myth: Wukong — When a Chinese Icon Skips National Borders. The Chinese role-playing game Black Myth: Wukong, released in August 2024, achieved a record-breaking 2.2 million concurrent users on Steam within its first 24 hours. This success has revitalized global interest in the 16th-century Chinese novel Journey to the West, upon which the game's characters are based. In Indonesia, the game has garnered attention, with local YouTuber Windah Basudara's gameplay videos amassing over 10 million views in two months. Reviewers have praised the game's cultural and philosophical depth, offering fresh insights into Chinese mythology and history. The character Sun Wukong, known locally as Sun Go Kong or Kera Sakti, has been a familiar figure in Indonesian culture since the 1890s, introduced by Chinese immigrants. His story has been adapted into Malay translations, comics, and television series, making him a shared cultural symbol. In Indonesia, Wukong is admired for his invincibility, whereas in China, his rebellious spirit as "The Great Sage, Heaven’s Equal" holds greater significance. This divergence highlights how cultural symbols can transcend national borders and acquire varied meanings in different contexts. Xue Song, FULCRUM, November 19