Asia Daily: November 18, 2024
Philippines, United States sign military intelligence-sharing deal. The Philippines and the United States signed the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) to enhance secure sharing of classified military information. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro also inaugurated a coordination center to boost real-time collaboration and interoperability. The agreement strengthens defense ties amid shared concerns over China's actions in the South China Sea and near Taiwan. Karen Lema, Reuters, November 18
Bangladesh tribunal tells investigators to finish probe against ousted premier Hasina by next month. A Bangladeshi tribunal has directed investigators to conclude their probe into ex-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her aides by December 17, following allegations of crimes against humanity during mass uprisings this summer. Hasina, in exile in India, faces arrest warrants alongside 45 others. The interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, is seeking Hasina’s extradition amid reports of hundreds killed in protests that ended her 15-year rule. Julhas Alam, AP News, November 18
Taiwan plans to spend US$2.2 billion on American weapons next year. Taiwan will allocate NT$70.6 billion (US$2.2 billion) in 2024 for U.S. weapons, including fighter jets, missiles, and radar upgrades, amid growing military threats from China. The spending is part of a broader NT$716.6 billion procurement plan through 2031. While President-elect Donald Trump has urged Taiwan to increase its defense budget to 10% of GDP, analysts warn such measures could strain other government spending. Delayed arms deliveries caused by the pandemic are accelerating, but Taiwan still awaits a backlog of US$20.5 billion in weapons. Lawrence Chung, South China Morning Post, November 18
Kazakhstan and EU address common security concerns. On November 14, officials from Kazakhstan and the European Union held a roundtable in Astana to discuss transnational threats such as terrorism, human trafficking, and cyberattacks. Kazakhstan’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Roman Vassilenko highlighted the global nature of these challenges and stressed his country’s commitment to international cooperation, having ratified all 19 UN counter-terrorism conventions. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, November 18
Party General Secretary To Lam to pay official visit to Malaysia. Vietnamese leader To Lam and his spouse will visit Malaysia from November 21-23 at the invitation of Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and his spouse. The visit comes after Malaysia filed a complaint with Vietnam over the alleged expansion of a South China Sea reef claimed by both nations. Malaysia reportedly sent the complaint to Vietnam’s foreign ministry in early October but has not yet received a reply. Prime Minister Anwar has affirmed Malaysia’s commitment to continue oil and gas exploration in contested waters despite objections from countries with conflicting claims. Vietnam News, November 18
Xi Jinping asks Yoon to visit China first. Chinese President Xi Jinping invited South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to visit China during their summit at the APEC meeting in Peru, breaking precedent as Xi has not yet visited South Korea despite prior expectations. Yoon reciprocated by inviting Xi to visit South Korea, especially for next year’s APEC meeting in Gyeongju. Yoon urged Xi to address North Korea-Russia military ties, but Xi emphasized dialogue for peaceful resolution. Xi’s remarks at APEC criticizing unilateralism and protectionism appeared directed at incoming U.S. President Donald Trump. Hyung-Jun Hwang, The Dong-A Ilbo, November 18
Bank of Japan chief signals further rate hikes to prevent sharp inflation. Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the importance of raising interest rates to manage inflation and sustain long-term economic growth. Speaking in Nagoya, Ueda indicated that the Bank of Japan would continue adjusting rates if the economy and prices meet expectations, with potential hikes as early as December. He warned that failing to act could lead to rapid inflation and more severe rate increases later. The weakening yen, influenced by President-elect Donald Trump’s inflationary policies, remains a concern for the BOJ. Kyodo News, November 18
People's Party announces candidates to lead 12 PAOs. The People's Party (PP) has unveiled candidates for the chair positions of 12 Provincial Administration Organisations (PAOs) in the upcoming local government elections, aiming to secure at least one PAO chair in each region. The announced candidates will contest in Chiang Mai, Lamphun, Mukdahan, Nong Khai, and several other locales. Nationwide PAO elections are scheduled for February 1, 2025, except in Surin and Udon Thani, where elections will occur in late November 2024. The PP plans to announce additional candidates by early next year. Bangkok Post, November 18
Yoon says S. Korea's relations with U.S., China not about choosing sides. President Yoon Suk Yeol stated that South Korea’s relationships with the United States and China are not about choosing sides, emphasizing the importance of constructive ties with both nations. While reaffirming the U.S.-South Korea alliance as central to diplomacy, Yoon highlighted the need to maintain dialogue with China for regional stability. Amid growing U.S.-China tensions and Donald Trump’s imminent return to office, Yoon expressed optimism about expanding strategic cooperation with the U.S. while managing relations with China as a key trading partner. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, November 18
Lao National Assembly opens 8th ordinary session to address key national challenges. The 9th-tenure National Assembly began its 8th ordinary session on November 18 in Vientiane, focusing on economic challenges, educational reforms, and constitutional updates. Lawmakers will address issues such as high inflation, debt resolution, and education concerns, including dropout rates and malnutrition among children. The government reported revenue growth but faces infrastructure and agricultural challenges. Leadership changes were also announced, with Thongsavanh Phomvihane appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs. Phonethida Sitthixay, Laotian Times, November 18
Vanuatu president dissolves Pacific nation's parliament. President Nikenike Vurobaravu dissolved Vanuatu’s parliament on Monday as both he and Prime Minister Charlot Salwai faced no-confidence votes. The Pacific nation, a focal point of strategic rivalry between China and Western powers, has faced political instability with three prime ministers in 18 months. Vanuatu’s deepening ties with Beijing, including significant infrastructure loans, have drawn scrutiny, while recent backlash over a defense pact with Australia has added to domestic tensions. Kirsty Needham, Reuters, November 18
Saudi Arabia to build electricity storage systems in Uzbekistan. Saudi company ACWA Power has signed an agreement with Uzbekistan to construct electricity storage systems totaling 2,000 MWh, formalized during the COP-29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan. The project, estimated at $1.1 billion, aims to enhance Uzbekistan's energy infrastructure and is expected to create over 1,000 jobs. This initiative aligns with Uzbekistan's plan to expand its energy storage capacity to 4.2 GW by 2030, supporting the integration of renewable energy sources. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, November 18
Sri Lanka’s Marxist-leaning president appoints Cabinet after election win. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake formed a 22-member Cabinet after his party's decisive parliamentary victory, enabling reforms without opposition support. Retaining key roles, including defense and finance, Dissanayake reappointed Harini Amarasuriya as prime minister and promised to address corruption while managing IMF bailout terms. The win reflects public frustration with traditional parties blamed for Sri Lanka's economic collapse. Bharatha Mallawarachi, AP News, November 18
Failed Trump meeting deals blow to Ishiba’s diplomatic hopes. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's efforts to secure an early meeting with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump were unsuccessful, marking a significant diplomatic setback for Japan’s leader. Despite initial optimism following a brief phone call where Trump appeared open to a meeting, scheduling conflicts tied to Trump’s Cabinet formation derailed plans. Critics in Ishiba’s party have called the attempt overly optimistic and reflective of weak diplomatic judgment. Shino Matsuyama and Taro Kotegawa, The Asahi Shimbun, November 18
S. Korea given prior notice by U.S. on decision to let Ukraine use long-range missiles against Russia: presidential office. The United States informed South Korea in advance of its decision to permit Ukraine to use Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike targets inside Russia, according to a South Korean presidential official. President Yoon Suk Yeol has suggested that South Korea may reconsider its stance on supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine, contingent on the level of military cooperation between North Korea and Russia. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, November 19
Kazakhstan's Caspian Sea ports increase cargo transportation. Kazakhstan's Caspian Sea ports transported 6.2 million tons of cargo from January to October 2024, a 3% increase year-on-year. Transit cargo shipments grew by 18%, while container transport through Aktau port rose by 84%, reaching 27,000 containers on the East-West route. A new grain terminal with a capacity of 1 million tons annually was launched at Kuryk port in October. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, November 18
Why the Philippines Made a Dramatic Turnaround on the Question of Archipelagos in the Law of the Sea. The Philippines’ enactment of the Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act (ASLA) and Maritime Zones Act (MZA) in November 2024 is a significant change in its maritime governance, limiting foreign vessel passage to three designated routes and aligning domestic laws with UNCLOS provisions. These measures aim to address national security issues and governance while addressing China’s increasing presence in Philippine waters. China condemned the laws, claiming they violate international law and include disputed territories such as the Scarborough Shoal and Spratlys. The Philippines’ stance contrasts with its pre-UNCLOS position, where it treated all archipelagic waters as internal, and now seeks to uphold international law to counter China’s maritime claims based on the discredited "nine-dash line." Alex P. Dela Cruz, Lowy Institute, November 18
Why Getting Pyongyang Back to the Negotiating Table Will Be Harder in Trump’s Second Term. Donald Trump’s second term faces greater challenges in engaging North Korea, which now has stronger geopolitical leverage through a defense pact with Russia and diminished international sanctions. Pyongyang’s alignment with Moscow, including deploying troops to Ukraine and engaging in arms trade, showcases its confidence and reduced reliance on Beijing. Additionally, North Korea has intensified its hostility toward South Korea and rejected diplomacy with Washington, citing denuclearization demands as a "hostile policy." With heightened tensions and its bolstered military capabilities, Pyongyang holds more leverage than during Trump’s first term, making renewed negotiations significantly more difficult. Gabriela Bernal, Lowy Institute, November 18
Pacific Education: Backsliding Outcomes and a Financing Freefall. Education in the Pacific is deteriorating, with falling participation, declining academic performance, and reduced funding from both international donors and Pacific governments. The 2024 Lowy Institute Pacific Aid Map reveals that external education aid remains below pre-pandemic levels, as geopolitical forces prioritize infrastructure over education. Domestic spending is also declining, with Vanuatu’s per capita education funding nearly halved since the early 2010s. Combined with a significant “youth bulge,” where over half the population is under 23, the region faces rising youth unemployment and social instability. Without immediate action, the Pacific risks losing a generation vital to its future development. Riley Duke and Nasirra Ahsan, Lowy Institute, November 18
Understanding Experiences of Chinese Graduate Students in the United States. Chinese graduate students play a large role in U.S.-China relations, contributing to the U.S. economy, research, and higher education while dealing with challenges such as stringent visa processes, campus safety concerns, and limited institutional support. Many face annual visa renewals, which create uncertainty about completing their programs or attending conferences and visiting family. Interviews reveal that students often struggle with health care access, English proficiency, and limited preparation for U.S. life and work despite expressing strong interest in staying post-graduation due to a favorable U.S. job market. Addressing these concerns through policy reforms and improved university support is key to attracting and retaining this critical talent. Richard Yarrow and Victoria Li, Council on Foreign Relations, November 18
South Asia Warily Eyes the Second Trump Administration. Under a second Trump presidency, South Asia faces mixed prospects. India is likely to benefit from strengthened ties with the U.S., as Trump’s alignment with Prime Minister Modi and India’s growing role in Indo-Pacific strategies suggest continuity in their relationship, despite past tariff disputes. Conversely, smaller South Asian states face uncertainty. Sri Lanka’s leftist government, with its radical mandate, diverges from Trump’s worldview and risks being sidelined. Bangladesh could face punitive actions due to Trump’s criticism of communal violence and its ties to the Biden administration, potentially harming its garment exports. Pakistan, with its close ties to China, is expected to encounter strained relations due to hawkish Trump appointees critical of its regional role. Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations, November 18
China’s Gaming Industry Comes of Age. The release of Black Myth: Wukong by Chinese-owned Game Science in August 2024 marks a turning point in China’s rise as a global game developer, transitioning from quick-profit mobile games to high-quality PC titles. Praised for its visuals and cultural depth, the game has created a international cultural exchange while boosting domestic PC sales and cultural tourism to Shanxi province. Aligned with China’s soft power agenda under President Xi Jinping, Wukong promotes Chinese traditions but has drawn criticism for its nationalistic undertones and adherence to censorship guidelines, raising concerns about propaganda and intercultural tensions. The game’s success also highlights misogyny in the Chinese gaming industry, reflecting global issues of gender exclusion. While Wukong showcases China's creative potential, its role in fostering mutual understanding versus polarization remains in question. Tingting Liu and Yuting Yang, East Asia Forum, November 18
Trump 2.0 and the Future of the Taiwan Strait Conflict. Donald Trump's return to the White House is expected to impact U.S.-China relations concerning Taiwan significantly. His administration's transactional foreign policy approach, coupled with the appointment of China hawks, suggests a potential shift from a values-based defense of democracy to a more strategic, business-driven stance. This change may lead to increased militarization in the region and the possibility of a proxy conflict over Taiwan. Beijing anticipates such developments and is likely to intensify its preparations for potential conflict, viewing the "Make America Great Again" agenda as a precursor to heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Juan Alberto Ruiz Casado, The Diplomat, November 18
Can Trump’s Tariffs Slow Down China’s Push to Lead High-tech Supply Chains? President-elect Donald Trump has proposed imposing a 60 percent tariff on Chinese products and a 20 percent tariff on all imported goods to bolster domestic manufacturing competitiveness. Despite previous U.S. measures such as high tariffs and export controls aimed at limiting China's access to advanced technologies, China has achieved global leadership in key sectors including drones, solar panels, graphene, lithium batteries, and high-speed rail. These restrictive measures have not only failed to contain China's technological advancement but have also increased costs for U.S. companies, shifted trade deficits to other countries, and encouraged Chinese firms to strengthen domestic supply chains, potentially leading to a permanent loss of U.S. business operations in China. Yingfan Chen and Dingding Chen, The Diplomat, November 18
Has China Changed its Policy Towards Chinese Overseas? In March 2024, Liu Jianchao, head of the International Department of the Chinese Communist Party, visited Singapore and addressed the distinct identities of Southeast Asian Chinese. He acknowledged that while their political loyalty lies with their countries of citizenship, their cultural ties remain connected to China. Despite this recognition, Beijing's longstanding policy of blurring the distinction between Chinese nationals abroad (Huaqiao) and foreign citizens of Chinese descent (Huaren) remains unchanged. This approach continues to influence China's engagement with overseas Chinese communities, focusing on cultural connections while navigating political affiliations' complexities. Leo Suryadinata, FULCRUM, November 18
Tug of Wealth: Malaysian States Seek a Fairer Deal in Oil and Gas. In September 2024, Sarawak demanded that Petronas, Malaysia's national oil company, transfer all rights over the distribution and sale of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to its state-owned company, Petros, by October 1. This move demonstrates ongoing tensions between Malaysian states and the federal government regarding control and revenue from oil and gas resources. Historically, states like Kelantan and Terengganu have faced challenges in receiving agreed-upon oil royalties, often requiring negotiations with the federal government. The Petroleum Development Act 1974 grants Petronas a monopoly over oil and gas exploration, but production-sharing contracts outline revenue-sharing formulas, including royalties to state governments. Sarawak's assertive stance may influence other states to seek greater autonomy over their natural resources, potentially reshaping Malaysia's approach to resource management and federal-state relations. Tricia Yeoh, FULCRUM, November 18