Asia Daily: November 15, 2024
Sri Lankan president's coalition wins big majority in general election. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s leftist coalition secured a decisive victory, winning 159 seats in the 225-member parliament, allowing him to pursue anti-poverty and anti-corruption reforms. However, plans to renegotiate IMF bailout terms have raised concerns among investors about potential economic policy shifts. The win provides Dissanayake the authority to push structural reforms and potentially abolish the executive presidency. Uditha Jayasinghe and Sudipto Ganguly, Reuters, November 15
Ishiba, Xi to reaffirm policy on ‘mutually beneficial’ ties. Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and China’s President Xi Jinping will reaffirm their commitment to a “strategic and mutually beneficial relationship” during their meeting on November 15 at the APEC summit in Lima. While emphasizing cooperation, Ishiba plans to express concerns over Chinese military activities and regional security, particularly around the Senkaku Islands. They are also expected to discuss reopening seafood imports and enhancing cultural and economic exchanges. The Asahi Shimbun, November 15
Democratic Party passes revised special prosecutor bill on first lady probe. South Korea’s Democratic Party passed a bill calling for a special prosecutor to investigate allegations involving First Lady Kim Keon Hee. The revised bill, opposed by the ruling People Power Party (PPP), focuses on stock manipulation and election interference. It includes a new mechanism for selecting a special prosecutor with input from the Supreme Court Chief Justice and opposition parties. In response, the PPP proposed appointing a special inspector instead. The Dong-A Ilbo, November 15
Chinese company builds cotton-textile cluster in South Kazakhstan. Xinjiang Lihua (Group) Co., Ltd. has initiated the development of a cotton-textile cluster in Kazakhstan’s Turkestan region, investing over $363 million. The project, located in the Turan Special Economic Zone, includes cotton processing plants, spinning and weaving mills, and a garment factory, and is set to create more than 4,000 jobs. The initiative is part of Kazakhstan’s effort to boost its light industry with government support. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, November 15
South Korean opposition leader gets a suspended jail term for violating election law. Lee Jae-myung, leader of South Korea's Democratic Party, received a suspended one-year prison sentence for making false statements during his 2022 presidential campaign. The ruling could cost him his legislative seat and block his presidential ambitions. Lee plans to appeal, denying any wrongdoing and accusing the government of a political vendetta. He faces multiple other trials over corruption allegations, with the next verdict expected on November 25. Kim Tong-hyung, AP News, November 15
China says Philippines sent supplies to disputed shoal. China confirmed that the Philippines conducted a supply mission to the Sierra Madre warship grounded on Second Thomas Shoal, a contested area in the South China Sea. China claims the mission proceeded with its "permission," though Manila did not acknowledge this. Tensions have been high as both nations assert their territorial claims, with recent actions including new maritime laws from the Philippines and China's increased military presence in the area. Joe Cash, Reuters, November 15
Leaders of S. Korea, U.S., Japan meet in Peru to discuss trilateral cooperation. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, U.S. President Joe Biden, and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba held a trilateral summit in Peru on the sidelines of the APEC summit. The leaders aimed to strengthen security cooperation in response to North Korea’s ties with Russia and potential changes under Trump's upcoming administration. This follows the 2023 Camp David summit agreement to enhance collaboration on shared security threats. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, November 16
Duterte vows to hang himself if bank accounts are really his. Former President Rodrigo Duterte fiercely denied allegations by ex-Senator Antonio Trillanes IV of holding hidden bank accounts tied to drug money. During a heated House hearing, Trillanes presented evidence claiming Duterte’s accounts held millions. Duterte challenged these claims, vowing to hang himself if proven true and pushing his children to resign if implicated. Despite agreeing to consider a bank waiver, Duterte demanded his opponents do the same. Red Mendoza, The Manila Times, November 15
Myanmar junta planning joint security firm with China. Myanmar's military regime is working to form a joint security company with China to safeguard Chinese projects in the country. The plan involves a memorandum of understanding for importing weapons and special equipment, as tensions rise due to attacks on Chinese-backed facilities by anti-regime groups. Analysts suggest Beijing aims to protect its investments independently, while the junta seeks China's security support amid sovereignty concerns. Maung Kavi, The Irrawaddy, November 15
Malaysia protests new Philippine maritime laws that it says infringe on its territory. Malaysia has formally objected to recently enacted Philippine maritime laws, claiming they encroach on Malaysian territory, particularly the state of Sabah. The protest came after Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed laws reaffirming Manila's maritime boundaries, which also challenge Chinese claims in the South China Sea. Sabah’s status has long been a point of contention between Malaysia and the Philippines, stemming from historical claims by the Sultanate of Sulu. AP News, November 15
Starting Latin America trip, Xi Jinping opens huge port in Peru funded by China. Chinese President Xi Jinping began his South American tour by inaugurating the $1.3 billion Chancay deep-water port in Peru, a key part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The port, constructed by Cosco Shipping, aims to boost trade efficiency between Asia and South America, especially for exports like Brazilian soybeans. While Xi promotes it as a trade hub, the U.S. has raised concerns over its potential military use. Eduardo Baptista, Marco Aquino, and Lucinda Elliott, Reuters, November 15
Economic challenges, state budgetary plans scheduled for upcoming NA session. The Lao National Assembly's 8th Ordinary Session will take place from November 18 to December 11, focusing on socio-economic development, budget plans, and legislative updates. Key topics include a strategic agricultural land management plan, budget allocations for 2025, and education system reforms. The assembly will also review four laws and discuss progress on constitutional amendments. A total of 20 resolutions are expected to be approved during the session. Vientiane Times, November 15
Armenian NA President to pay official visit to Vietnam. Alen Simonyan, President of Armenia’s National Assembly, will visit Vietnam from November 17 to 23 at the invitation of Vietnamese NA Chairman Tran Thanh Man. The visit aims to strengthen bilateral relations and enhance cooperation between the two countries in various fields. Vietnam News, November 15
Japan's GDP grows 0.9% in July-Sept. on solid consumption. Japan's economy expanded by an annualized 0.9% in Q3 2024, driven by consumer spending bolstered by tax cuts and summer bonuses, though growth slowed from the previous quarter's 2.2%. Private consumption increased, supported by higher auto sales and emergency food stockpiling. However, concerns over sustainability remain as capital investment declined and imports rose, partly due to a weaker yen. Analysts are cautious about the impact of President-elect Trump's policies on Japan's economic outlook. Kyodo News, November 15
ASEAN has everything it needs for regional decarbonisation. Most ASEAN countries are set for a rapid transition to solar and wind energy to meet growing energy demands and decarbonization targets. Solar and wind dominate global markets for new power generation due to their low costs and scalability. ASEAN’s vast solar and wind resources offer opportunities for deployment on rooftops, defunct mining sites, and offshore areas, with regional interconnections reducing storage needs. Halting new fossil-fuel projects and encouraging private investments in renewables are key to progress. Learning from leaders like Australia can help accelerate ASEAN’s renewable energy adoption. Andrew Blakers, East Asia Forum, November 15
Sulu’s exclusion sullies Bangsamoro peace process. The Philippine Supreme Court's decision to consider excluding Sulu from the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) threatens the unity and stability of the Bangsamoro peace process. The Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL), designed to transform clan-based politics into a parliamentary system, faces opposition from Sulu’s Governor Tan, whose region represents about one-fifth of the BARMM population. Exclusion risks fracturing the Bangsamoro identity, disrupting essential services, and reducing access to resources. With the 2025 parliamentary elections approaching, tensions between the MILF-led United Bangsamoro Justice Party and Sulu-backed BARMM Grand Coalition are escalating. Addressing grievances through institutional mechanisms and safeguarding services during the transition are critical to avoiding instability and preserving the peace process. Miyoko Taniguchi, East Asia Forum, November 16
Is Thailand’s Power Grid a Gas Guzzler? Thailand's recent surge in liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports has significantly impacted the national budget. The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) faces substantial financial strain after subsidizing electricity prices, a situation exacerbated by global events such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Traditionally, Thailand's power grid has relied on domestic gas reserves and pipeline imports from Myanmar, with approximately 53% of electricity generated from gas-fired plants. However, declining domestic gas production and political instability in Myanmar have necessitated increased LNG imports. In response to these challenges, Thailand is adopting a more cautious approach to LNG imports and exploring alternative energy sources to enhance energy security and financial stability. Sribala Subramanian, The Diplomat, November 15
So Near Yet So Far: The Philippines’ Lower-Middle-Income Country Trap. Despite reported economic growth, the Philippines remains entrenched in a lower-middle-income status, lagging behind ASEAN counterparts. The 2020 pandemic-induced recession, with a nearly 10% GDP decline, inflicted lasting economic damage, necessitating over 10% annual growth to realign with pre-pandemic trajectories. Notably, Vietnam has surpassed the Philippines in per capita income. Since 1989, the Philippines has been classified as a lower-middle-income country, with unfulfilled governmental promises of elevation to upper-middle-income status. The nation's premature de-industrialization, marked by a declining industry share in GDP since 1981, contrasts with its service-driven economy. Addressing this stagnation requires structural economic reforms, including revitalizing the industrial sector and enhancing productivity, to break free from the lower-middle-income trap. JC Punongbayan, FULCRUM, November 14