Asia Daily: November 14, 2024
China hawk Rubio likely to take hard line on Hong Kong but Beijing well prepared: experts. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's pick for Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio, is expected to intensify policies against China, especially regarding Hong Kong. Known for his tough stance on competition with China, Rubio has backed sanctions and trade restrictions on Hong Kong officials and entities. Analysts predict he will push for tighter controls on Hong Kong’s trade to curb China’s influence. However, Hong Kong officials argue that Beijing is prepared for potential U.S. actions under the new administration. Natalie Wong and Willa Wu, South China Morning Post, November 14
In shadow of new Trump term, Japan and S. Korea join US in Asian naval drill. The U.S., Japan, and South Korea conducted joint naval exercises led by the USS George Washington in East Asian waters. This marks their final drill before President Biden leaves office, handing over his trilateral security initiative to Donald Trump. The exercises reflect strengthened military cooperation amid growing concerns over China and North Korea’s missile tests. Trump’s allies previously assured Tokyo and Seoul of continued support, despite uncertainty over his new administration’s regional strategy. Tim Kelly, Reuters, November 14
Xi Jinping arrives in Peru for Apec, poised to sign 30 bilateral agreements for China. Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Peru to attend the APEC summit, bringing a delegation of business leaders to advance China’s economic influence. Key highlights include the virtual inauguration of Peru's new $3.5 billion Chancay port, funded by China, and plans to sign 30 agreements, including an updated free-trade pact. The visit underscores Beijing's push for deeper ties with South America amid shifting global dynamics. Mark Magnier, South China Morning Post, November 14
Kazakhstan leads Central Asia in AI readiness. Kazakhstan ranks first among Central Asian nations in artificial intelligence (AI) readiness, securing 48th place globally with a score of 0.55, just behind Russia. The ranking, based on factors like digital infrastructure and human capital, highlights Kazakhstan’s use of AI for public services and rural development. Kyrgyzstan follows at 99th, while Uzbekistan and Tajikistan rank lower in the region. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, November 14
Russian defense official visits China’s premier military showcase in a sign of unity. Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s Security Council secretary, attended China’s military exhibition in Zhuhai, highlighting deepening ties between the two nations. The event showcased advanced Chinese aircraft, including J22 and J35A stealth fighters. The visit comes as Russia faces a stalemate in Ukraine and seeks military reinforcements. Although China has not directly supported Russia's war, it continues to supply dual-use technology and remains a major buyer of Russian energy. AP News, November 14
Japan, S. Korea, U.S. hold drills amid tensions, uncertainty. Japan, South Korea, and the United States launched joint military drills on November 13 in the East China Sea amid rising tensions with North Korea, China, and Russia. The Freedom Edge exercise, involving maritime, aerial, and cyber operations, focuses on countering regional threats, including North Korean missile capabilities. Concerns remain over the future of trilateral defense cooperation with Donald Trump’s return as U.S. president, which could shift strategies towards North Korea. Nobuhiko Tajima, The Asahi Shimbun, November 14
Japan, Britain to start economic security talks before Trump's return. Japan and Britain will initiate ministerial talks on economic security, modeled on their "two-plus-two" framework, to address potential challenges from President-elect Trump's protectionist trade policies. The new dialogue aims to strengthen free trade, technology collaboration, and supply chain resilience in areas like semiconductors and rare metals. Prime Ministers Ishiba and Starmer are set to finalize the plan at the upcoming G20 summit in Brazil. Kyodo News, November 14
Ex-PM sees no risk to Pheu Thai. Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra expressed confidence that the Pheu Thai-led coalition government will serve its full term despite facing multiple petitions accusing the party of being under his control. Thaksin addressed concerns about internal disputes among coalition parties, emphasizing that differences are normal and can be resolved. He also remains optimistic about the success of the government’s economic initiatives. The petitions have been filed by various opposition figures, but Thaksin downplayed their impact. Bangkok Post, November 15
Malaysia to protest to Philippines over its new maritime laws. Malaysia will issue a protest to the Philippines over its recently enacted maritime laws, which include the Maritime Zones Act and the Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act. According to Malaysia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Mohamad Alamin, these laws allegedly overlap with Malaysia’s territorial claims to Sabah on Borneo Island. The move comes after China also raised concerns about the Philippines' maritime legislation, aimed at reinforcing its territorial integrity. Danial Azhar and Mikhail Flores, Reuters, November 14
N. Korea's Kim orders mass production of suicide attack drones: KCNA. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has directed the rapid mass production of suicide drones following successful performance tests, as reported by state media KCNA. These drones are designed to strike ground and sea targets with precision. Emphasizing advancements in drone technology, Kim underscored integrating unmanned systems with military operations. He called for a full-scale production system to enhance North Korea's tactical capabilities in modern warfare. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, November 15
Uzbekistan aims to export 10-15 billion kWh of electricity to Europe by 2030. Uzbekistan plans to begin exporting electricity to Europe by 2030, leveraging joint projects with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, including laying a high-voltage cable under the Caspian Sea. The initiative focuses on utilizing the country's growing renewable energy capacity, which is expected to exceed 20 GW by the end of the decade. The project will involve a feasibility study and substantial infrastructure investment, estimated to cost over $2 billion. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, November 14
South Korean court finds former lawmaker guilty of misusing funds meant for sexual slavery victims. The Supreme Court of South Korea upheld a suspended 18-month prison sentence for Yoon Meehyang, a former lawmaker found guilty of embezzling funds from a group supporting survivors of Japan’s wartime sexual slavery. Yoon was also convicted of fraudulently obtaining government subsidies and unlawfully collecting donations. She denied wrongdoing, calling the verdict unjust. The case began in 2020 following accusations by a former victim, sparking controversy over the group's financial management. Kim Tong-hyung, AP News, November 14
Former Taiwan president Tsai to visit Canada next week, sources say. Former Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen plans to visit Canada next week, where she is expected to speak at the Halifax International Security Forum. The visit underscores Taiwan’s ongoing efforts to strengthen international ties despite Beijing's opposition. China's foreign ministry urged Canada to adhere to its one-China policy. Tsai's previous trips to Europe and the U.S. have drawn strong reactions from Beijing, which views Taiwan as part of its territory. Yimou Lee and Ben Blanchard, Reuters, November 14
U.S. lawmaker introduces legislation to revoke China’s trade status. U.S. Representative John Moolenaar has proposed a bill to end China’s permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status, imposing tariffs up to 100% on Chinese imports. The bill aligns with a similar Senate proposal by Senators Marco Rubio and Tom Cotton, aiming to decouple economic ties due to concerns over job losses and unfair competition. The proposed legislation faces challenges as the current congressional session ends soon, and any changes could provoke retaliatory actions from Beijing. Robert Delaney, South China Morning Post, November 14
China sought ex-military intelligence officials' views on foreign spies in Myanmar: report. China reportedly consulted former Myanmar military intelligence officials on the presence of foreign spies, including CIA and Taiwanese operatives, ahead of junta leader Min Aung Hlaing's visit to Beijing. The meetings, held in October, involved figures like ex-Brigadier General Thein Swe and ex-Colonel Hla Min, and aimed to address counter-espionage concerns amidst deepening China-Myanmar ties. Analysts suggest Beijing is wary of Western intelligence activities in Myanmar. The Irrawaddy, November 14
Japan extra Diet session eyed for Nov. 28 to pass budget. An extraordinary parliamentary session is expected on November 28 to deliberate on a supplementary budget for inflation relief measures proposed by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. The plan includes cash handouts to low-income households and child-rearing families, as well as subsidies to reduce energy costs. The ruling coalition, lacking a House majority, must negotiate with opposition parties, who are demanding accountability on past scandals before approving the budget. Kyodo News, November 14
Investigation into Chinese hacking reveals ‘broad and significant’ spying effort, FBI says. The FBI and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency revealed that Chinese hackers have compromised U.S. telecommunications networks to access call records and private communications of individuals involved in government or politics. The cyberespionage campaign also targeted data from U.S. surveillance programs like FISA. This follows previous operations, including the large-scale “Flax Typhoon” botnet. Authorities are collaborating with telecom companies to enhance cybersecurity measures. David Klepper, AP News, November 13
S. Korea to take 'effective, phased' measures as N. Korean troops enter combat in Russia's Kursk. South Korea announced plans for phased measures after confirming North Korean troops are fighting for Russia in Ukraine's Kursk region. The National Intelligence Service, alongside U.S. intelligence, verified the deployment. An anonymous unification ministry official criticized the North for sending soldiers into an "unjustifiable" war. This comes after a recent defense pact between Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin, deepening military cooperation between North Korea and Russia. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, November 14
China makes a statement at the Zhuhai air show. China’s 15th International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition in Zhuhai showcased advancements in its military aviation capabilities. The J-35A, China’s second stealth fighter, demonstrates China’s intent to match U.S. military capabilities, making China the only other nation with two stealth fighters in its arsenal. Additionally, China introduced the J-20S, the world’s first two-seat stealth fighter, designed for complex missions involving unmanned vehicles and electronic warfare. While the carrier-borne J-35 variant is still in development, the J-15T is now operational on Chinese carriers, improving China’s “counter-intervention” capabilities in the Pacific. Notably absent were the H-20 stealth bomber and Y-20B tanker, both expected to increase China’s reach across the Indo-Pacific. These developments highlight China’s emphasis on regional influence, particularly in relation to Taiwan, while posing a potential long-term strategic challenge. David Vallance, Lowy Institute, November 15
Is Southeast Asia ready for a regional power grid? Southeast Asia is exploring the potential of a regional power grid to address its increasing energy needs and advance decarbonization. Singapore’s recent plans to import renewable energy show regional grid discussions, particularly through the ASEAN Power Grid, which could reduce transition costs. However, challenges persist, including policy alignment, certification of renewable sources, and cross-border project financing. Australia is positioned to partner with ASEAN on these efforts, while multilateral institutions like the Asian Development Bank are proposing financial support to aid regional interconnectivity. Hannah Lord, Lowy Institute, November 15
Avoiding Entanglement: G20 Responses in a Taiwan Crisis. In a potential Taiwan crisis, G20 nations like Brazil, South Korea, and Indonesia will have to navigate pressures from both U.S. and Chinese economic statecraft. Brazil, with strong ties to China and a BRICS affiliation, is expected to maintain neutrality, minimizing legal entanglements. South Korea’s alignment with the G7 increases the likelihood of facing Chinese economic countermeasures due to its intertwined supply chains with China. Indonesia, adhering to nonalignment, is likely to avoid direct punitive measures while prioritizing stable economic ties. Overall, China is expected to pursue diplomatic rather than punitive strategies to avoid disrupting trade with these G20 nations. Matthew Mingey, Laura Gormley, Logan Wright, Rhodium Group, November 13
South Korea best off balancing deterrence and diplomacy with the North. With North Korea increasingly oriented towards a “two Koreas” policy and expanding its nuclear capabilities, South Korea’s most pragmatic strategy involves balancing strong deterrence with selective diplomatic outreach. President Yoon Suk-yeol’s emphasis on inter-Korean dialogue reflects this approach, though Pyongyang remains unreceptive. To manage these tensions effectively, Seoul is advised to strengthen its defense systems and alliances, particularly with the United States and Japan, while reducing rhetoric that North Korea perceives as antagonistic. Such a strategy aims to maintain peace, keep open channels for future diplomacy, and better position South Korea to engage constructively if conditions shift. Rachel Minyoung Lee, East Asia Forum, November 14
Employment relations in South Korea are going back to the future. South Korean companies’ anti-union strategies, exemplified by Samsung, feature extensive union-busting tactics, including forming loyalist unions, surveillance, and retaliation against unionization efforts. Despite unionization at Samsung Electronics since 2021, following Vice Chair Lee Jae-yong's release from prison for corruption and union-busting, employee relations remain challenging, as shown by the July 2024 strike over wage demands and workplace conditions. South Korea’s single bargaining channel system allows only one union to represent workers in negotiations, which some companies leverage to delay or avoid collective bargaining, often supporting company-friendly unions. As South Korea’s demographic changes lead to a labor shortage, increased pressure is anticipated on employers to address labor relations issues. Proposals include creating an independent arbitration body to mediate labor disputes, as the nation faces a transition from traditional manufacturing to a service- and knowledge-based economy. Chris Rowley, East Asia Forum, November 15
Myanmar Civil War: New Season, New Breakthroughs? As Myanmar’s pro-democracy resistance forces advance toward major urban centers like Mandalay, they encounter challenges posed by the Tatmadaw's air superiority and recent conscription efforts. The arrival of the dry season, which brings clearer skies, further aids the Tatmadaw by improving airstrike accuracy and easing troop movements. Despite these difficulties, resistance fighters benefit from expanded territorial control and increased access to drones, which help offset the Tatmadaw’s traditional advantages. The conflict’s urban shift presents new tactical demands, as many resistance members lack combat experience in dense, fortified environments. Antonio Graceffo, Geopolitical Monitor, November 14
China’s Commodification of Minorities. Under President Xi Jinping, the Chinese government has increasingly commodified ethnic minority cultures for tourism, presenting them in staged, sanitized formats aimed at Han Chinese tourists. Policies promoting "cultural preservation" often suppress authentic minority expression, replacing it with controlled performances, theme parks, and heritage displays that fit state-sanctioned narratives. Instances like the Yunnan Minorities Village and the "Dynamic Yunnan" show exemplify how minority cultures are reshaped into spectacles that emphasize exoticism or simplicity, masking the diversity and reality of these communities. Heightened surveillance and restrictions further limit genuine cultural expressions and isolate minorities. Natasha L. Mikles, The Diplomat, November 14
So Near Yet So Far: The Philippines’ Lower-Middle-Income Country Trap. Despite strong GDP growth reports, the Philippines remains caught in the "lower-middle-income trap" for over three decades, lagging behind ASEAN peers like Vietnam. Economic challenges, including limited industrial growth and premature deindustrialization, hinder upward mobility. While Vietnam's export-driven industrialization has spurred wages and job creation, the Philippines struggles with low-value exports and stagnant foreign investments, partly due to high labor costs and poor infrastructure. Analysts argue that a renewed focus on attracting export-oriented manufacturing could unlock growth potential, but proactive policy changes are essential to break out of economic stagnation. JC Punongbayan, Fulcrum, November 14