Asia Daily: November 13, 2024
Philippines says it will cooperate if ICC seeks Duterte’s custody over drug killings. The Philippine government affirmed it will cooperate with the International Criminal Court (ICC) if former President Rodrigo Duterte is sought for custody over alleged crimes against humanity related to his anti-drug campaign. Duterte, who has dismissed fears of the ICC, expressed mixed responses on whether he would submit to the court’s investigation. Despite the country’s withdrawal from the ICC in 2019, jurisdiction remains for alleged crimes committed while the Philippines was a member. Jim Gomez, AP News, November 13
Malaysia challenges late sultan's heirs to try to lease part of the country. Malaysia's law minister, Azalina Othman Said, rejected claims from the heirs of the last Sultan of Sulu, who suggested leasing disputed lands to other countries after losing a $14.9 billion arbitration claim in France. The dispute originates from a colonial-era agreement, with Malaysia halting payments to the heirs in 2013 after an incursion linked to their claims. Malaysia asserts its sovereignty, dismissing the heirs' assertions as legally baseless. Danial Azhar, Reuters, November 13
Kyrgyzstan secures pavilion in Uzbek-Afghan border trade center. Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Economy has secured a pavilion at the Termez International Trade Center, located near the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan border. This strategic acquisition aims to bolster Kyrgyzstan’s exports and enhance trade relations, particularly in agricultural and industrial sectors, with neighboring countries. The center, opened in August, is designed to facilitate trade flows in the region and allows Afghan traders up to 15 days of visa-free access. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, November 13
U.S. defense chief Austin heads to Indo-Pacific, marking historic first visit to Fiji in push for regional security. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is visiting Australia, the Philippines, Laos, and Fiji to strengthen security alliances. His trip, which includes attending the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting in Laos, marks the first-ever visit by a U.S. defense chief to Fiji. The visit aims to deepen bilateral defense ties and enhance cooperation in the Indo-Pacific amid rising geopolitical tensions. PINA, November 13
Japan PM receives 2nd medical checkup in 5 days amid health concern. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba underwent a second medical checkup within a week after appearing to doze off during a parliamentary session. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi downplayed concerns, stating Ishiba, 67, remains in good health. The examination was reportedly a routine check scheduled before Ishiba’s upcoming visit to South America for APEC and G20 summits. Hayashi attributed the earlier incident to cold medicine rather than health issues. Kyodo News, November 13
Biden and Xi will meet in Peru as US-China relations tested again by Trump’s return. President Joe Biden is scheduled to meet with China’s Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Lima, focusing on stability amid concerns over Donald Trump’s upcoming administration. Key topics include Chinese support for Russia, fentanyl production, cybersecurity, and Taiwan. Biden aims to sustain dialogue, especially after recent tensions over spy balloons and sanctions against Chinese firms aiding Russia. Trump’s tariff threats and Xi’s call for managing U.S.-China ties add to the geopolitical pressure. Aamer Madhani, AP News, November 13
N. Korea stays silent on Trump's win for 1 week. North Korea has yet to officially acknowledge Donald Trump’s reelection, despite the potential implications for leader Kim Jong-un. The regime's silence follows a historical pattern of delayed responses to U.S. elections. Experts speculate that Pyongyang may be waiting for Trump’s new foreign policy team, including hawkish figures like Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio, to outline their stance on North Korea before issuing a response. The North's cautious approach could also reflect tensions over its military cooperation with Russia. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, November 13
Kyrgyzstan makes arrests over suspected coup attempt ahead of local elections. Authorities in Kyrgyzstan detained seven people accused of planning mass riots to overthrow the government ahead of the November 17 local elections. The suspects allegedly used national sports events in Bishkek to incite unrest and promote unconstitutional actions. Russia, which maintains a military base near Bishkek, confirmed ongoing communication with Kyrgyz authorities regarding the situation. The country has a history of political instability, with two presidents ousted in the 21st century. Aigerim Turgunbaeva and Lucy Papachristou, Reuters, November 13
Rights groups condemn Bangladesh for canceling accreditation of 167 journalists. Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, has revoked the press credentials of 167 journalists between late October and early November, sparking backlash from rights organizations. The Editors’ Council criticized the move as censorship, urging the government to restore the accreditations and uphold press freedoms. This action comes after the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who was accused of suppressing media rights. The cancellation hampers journalists' access to official events. AP News, November 13
Indonesian bankers say growth, inflows could be hit by Trump's policies. Indonesia’s economic growth and investment inflows might be affected if President-elect Donald Trump enacts protectionist trade policies, according to executives from top state-run banks. Concerns center on a potential U.S.-China trade war that could reduce Indonesia’s growth forecast and affect global commodity prices, crucial for Indonesia’s exports. Bank leaders also warned that Trump’s proposed tariffs could complicate monetary policy, limiting Indonesia’s ability to cut rates amid inflation risks. Stefanno Sulaiman, Reuters, November 13
Myanmar junta airstrikes kill 20 in TNLA territory. Airstrikes by Myanmar’s military on Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) territory in northern Shan State have reportedly left 20 dead, including civilians. The attacks targeted Mogoke and Nawnghkio, destroying homes and a crowded tea shop. TNLA accused the junta of targeting civilians despite offering peace talks, while pro-junta sources claimed the strikes targeted rebels. The escalation follows junta chief Min Aung Hlaing’s recent visit to China amid growing tensions with ethnic armed groups. The Irrawaddy, November 13
ADB to help Kazakhstan move away from coal power generation. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has signed a memorandum with Kazakhstan to phase out coal power under its Energy Transition Mechanism. The agreement includes a feasibility study to identify coal plants for early retirement and replace them with renewable energy sources. The initiative aligns with Kazakhstan's goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. The transition is expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which currently make up over 80% of the country’s emissions. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, November 13
China holds combat drills at a disputed shoal west of the Philippines. China conducted air and sea drills near Scarborough Shoal on Wednesday, intensifying tensions with the Philippines over territorial claims in the South China Sea. This follows China’s recent publication of new baselines for the shoal, which Manila views as an infringement on its sovereignty. In response, the Philippines summoned the Chinese ambassador to protest the baselines, citing international law violations. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has made reaffirming his country’s maritime rights a priority for his administration. AP News, November 13
Clash looms between ruling, main opposition parties over first lady controversy. Tensions are rising in South Korea's National Assembly as the Democratic Party (DP) pushes for a special counsel probe into alleged stock manipulation and election interference involving first lady Kim Keon Hee. In response, the ruling People Power Party (PPP) is considering appointing a special inspector to investigate potential corruption within the president’s family. The two parties remain divided ahead of a crucial plenary session vote. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, November 13
NA approves resolution on state budget allocation plan for 2025. Vietnam’s National Assembly passed a resolution to allocate the 2025 state budget, with over VNĐ1.02 quadrillion set for central budget revenue and VNĐ946.67 trillion for local revenue. The plan includes allocating VNĐ60 trillion for wage reforms and transferring VNĐ50.6 trillion from local budget surpluses. The government is directed to ensure efficient allocation and financial discipline, with penalties for delays in disbursement. Vietnam News, November 13
House speaker agrees to discuss charter. Thai House Speaker Wan Muhammad Noor Matha will meet with a parliamentary committee on November 27 to discuss potential constitutional amendments, following a request from the People’s Party MP Parit Wacharasindhu. The discussions will include streamlining the referendum process for proposed changes. The goal is to draft a new constitution ahead of the 2027 elections, with plans to reduce the required referendums from three to two. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, November 13
Check, but not check-mate: Indonesia’s nine-dash line mistake. Earlier this week, China appeared to gain an advantage in its territorial dispute with Indonesia over the South China Sea by releasing a joint statement indicating cooperation on "overlapping claims" in disputed waters. The Indonesian government later clarified that this statement does not imply recognition of China's nine-dash line claim, which lacks international legal support. However, the Mandarin version of the statement references the North Natuna Sea as overlapping territory. Although Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto seeks to balance relations with China, he has maintained Indonesia’s stance that the nine-dash line is invalid. Ristian Supriyanto, Lowy Institute, Nov 14
Kazakhstan's First NPP: Economics and Geopolitics. Kazakhstan has moved forward with plans for its first nuclear power plant (NPP) after over 71% of voters supported the project in a recent referendum. This NPP, supported by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, aims to meet growing energy demands while reducing reliance on Russian electricity imports. Key players vying for the project include Russia's Rosatom, China’s CNNC, Korea’s KEPCO, and France's EDF, though Russia and China are considered front-runners due to economic and geopolitical ties. Concerns among local experts focus on nuclear safety, environmental risks, and dependency on foreign partners, which may impact Kazakhstan's sovereignty and energy autonomy. Sergey Sukhankin, Caucasus Analytical Digest, Nov 13
RCEP provides a path to regional trade cooperation. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), signed by ASEAN's 10 member states and five trade partners in November 2020, aims to deepen regional value chains and strengthen the ASEAN Plus One agreements. Entering into force in January 2022, RCEP covers around 30% of global GDP and 28% of world trade, though initial data suggests its benefits have been underutilized, with China, Japan, and South Korea seeing the most advantage so far. RCEP faces obstacles from geopolitical tensions, the pandemic's impact on trade, and ongoing conflicts. However, the "ASEAN way" of flexible, consensus-based negotiation was pivotal in finalizing RCEP and could inform future trade diplomacy efforts with other regions. Iman Pambagyo and Donna Gultom, East Asia Forum, Nov 14
Sri Lanka’s political elite fails to gatekeep change. The election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake in Sri Lanka’s 2024 presidential race reflects a national and global change, as non-elite figures challenge entrenched political structures and pursue reform. Dissanayake’s National People’s Power (NPP) party, emerging from the rebranded Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), capitalized on public discontent with longstanding political elites, pledging to end corruption, nepotism, and authoritarian practices. Rooted in anti-incumbency sentiment and fueled by the 2022 Aragalaya protests, the NPP’s success disrupts Sri Lanka’s traditional two-party dominance, positioning itself as a democratic, inclusive alternative. Despite efforts by established elites to undermine the NPP through misinformation, the party has gained support by addressing the erosion of civil liberties, economic instability, and social division. With upcoming parliamentary elections on the horizon, the NPP faces the dual challenge of sustaining reforms and overcoming skepticism regarding its ability to govern, as critics emphasize its lack of political experience and the JVP’s insurgent past. Roshni Kapur, East Asia Forum, Nov 13
Locked in Unrest: Southern Thailand’s Insurgency 20 Years On. Twenty years after the resurgence of a separatist insurgency in Thailand’s Deep South, the region remains mired in violence despite intermittent peace negotiations. Sparked by a series of deadly clashes in 2004, including the Tak Bai Massacre, the conflict pits Malay-Muslim insurgent groups against the Thai state, with the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) as the primary group leading the movement. Recent peace efforts, including a Joint Comprehensive Plan Toward Peace signed in February 2024, offer glimmers of hope. However, persistent violence—such as car bombings and insurgent attacks—alongside internal divisions within BRN hinder sustained progress. The insurgency's ethno-nationalist roots distinguish it from global jihadist movements, though some BRN factions invoke religious rhetoric to galvanize support, with martyrdom celebrations fueling local tensions. Nurrisha Ismail, The Diplomat, Nov 13
Middle East Conflicts Will Impact Security in Asia. Conflicts in the Middle East, spurred by the October 2023 Hamas-Israel confrontation, are impacting Southeast Asian public sentiment, especially in Muslim-majority countries, and changing regional security dynamics. Rising anti-U.S. sentiment in Southeast Asia, particularly in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei, reflects growing resentment towards American support for Israel. As the U.S. redirects military resources to the Middle East, its capacity to address Asia-Pacific tensions—such as in the Taiwan Strait and Korean Peninsula—may be stretched, potentially creating a security vacuum. This “strategic overstretch” complicates U.S. commitments in Asia as China strengthens its influence in the region. Daljit Singh, Fulcrum, Nov 14
China’s Increased Investment in Vietnam: Opportunities and Challenges. China’s investment in Vietnam has surged in recent years, spurred by U.S.-China trade tensions and Chinese firms seeking to diversify production outside of China. Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Vietnam rose sharply, making China the sixth-largest investor by the end of 2023. Chinese investors see Vietnam’s strategic location, low labor costs, and access to global markets as key advantages, especially in industries like solar panel manufacturing. However, challenges arise as Chinese firms increasingly use Vietnam to bypass U.S. tariffs, which could strain Vietnam-U.S. trade relations. Hanoi may need to adopt a cautious approach by selectively approving Chinese projects, especially in high-tech sectors, to balance economic benefits with potential geopolitical risks. Le Hong Hiep, Fulcrum, Nov 13