Asia Daily: November 12, 2024
Philippines says China is pushing it to cede claims in South China Sea. Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro accused China of pressuring Manila to relinquish its territorial claims in the South China Sea during talks with Australia's defense chief in Canberra. The meeting reflects strengthening security ties as both nations counter China's aggressive maritime actions. Tensions have escalated following China’s new baselines around disputed areas, which the Philippines condemned as a violation of its sovereignty. In response, Manila is boosting defense partnerships and military capabilities. Peter Hobson and Lewis Jackson, Reuters, November 12
Bangladesh asks Interpol for help in arresting ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Bangladesh's special tribunal has requested Interpol to issue a red notice for Sheikh Hasina, who fled to India after being ousted in August amid mass protests. The new interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, accuses Hasina of responsibility for the deaths of hundreds of protesters. The tribunal, reconstituted under Yunus, aims to try Hasina and seek her extradition from India. Julhas Alam, AP News, November 12
Myanmar junta chief homes in on Chinese drones as resistance buster. Myanmar’s junta leader Min Aung Hlaing, during a visit to China, explored drone technologies with potential applications for the military’s ongoing campaigns against resistance groups. The regime has increasingly relied on Chinese-made drones for surveillance and offensive operations, particularly as resistance forces have utilized drones effectively in their counterattacks. The Myanmar military’s collaboration with Chinese manufacturers signals an expansion in its arsenal, leveraging both military and commercial drones to counter insurgencies. The Irrawaddy, November 12
S. Korea, U.S., Japan to hold 2nd trilateral Freedom Edge exercise this week. South Korea, the U.S., and Japan are set to conduct their second trilateral exercise, Freedom Edge, from Wednesday for three days in waters near Jeju Island. The drills will focus on air defense, anti-submarine warfare, and ballistic missile defense, using key naval assets like the USS George Washington. The exercise aims to counter North Korea's recent ICBM tests and deepen trilateral security cooperation amid increasing North Korea-Russia ties. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, November 13
Ratu Naiqama Lalabalavu sworn in as new Fiji president. Ratu Naiqama Lalabalavu, former Speaker of Parliament and a high chief of Cakaudrove, has been officially sworn in as Fiji's seventh president. Elected with 37 votes, he emphasized the importance of the military’s continued support for the nation’s rule of law and the welfare of its citizens. His inauguration was attended by Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka, opposition leaders, and diplomatic representatives. PINA, November 12
Uzbekistan and Saudi Arabia strengthen ties; $2.5 billion investment expected by year-end. Uzbekistan and Saudi Arabia are set to enhance economic cooperation with investments totaling $2.5 billion expected by the end of the year. This includes projects in green energy, healthcare, and infrastructure. During a meeting with Saudi officials, Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev emphasized collaboration in developing wind and solar energy projects, and expanding the partnership with ACWA Power for sustainable energy initiatives. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, November 12
Kazakhstan secures agreement for 11 billion cubic meters of water from neighboring countries by April 2025. Kazakhstan has reached an agreement with Central Asian neighbors to secure water supplies from the Syr Darya River to fill the Shardara reservoir by April 2025. This deal, finalized during a recent meeting in Turkmenistan, involves contributions from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan to support Kazakhstan’s agricultural irrigation needs. The accord aims to enhance water management cooperation in the region. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, November 12
Indonesian president meets Biden and speaks with Trump, pledges cooperation. During an official visit to Washington, President Prabowo Subianto met with U.S. President Joe Biden to discuss topics like climate change and regional security. He also congratulated President-elect Donald Trump via phone, expressing his desire to strengthen U.S.-Indonesia ties. Prabowo emphasized Indonesia’s non-aligned foreign policy amid its strategic relations with both the U.S. and China. The visit included discussions with American companies, encouraging investment in Indonesia’s mining and energy sectors. Stanley Widianto and Jeff Mason, Reuters, November 12
First summit talks between Japan's Ishiba, China's Xi eyed for Nov. 15. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to hold their first summit on the sidelines of the APEC forum in Peru. The meeting aims to improve bilateral ties and discuss concerns, including China's military activities near Japan and seafood import bans. Ishiba previously met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in October. Arrangements are also underway for Ishiba to meet with U.S. President Biden and South Korean President Yoon in Peru. Kyodo News, November 12
Ukraine war: EU’s next top envoy says China must pay ‘higher cost’ for backing Russia. Kaja Kallas, poised to become the EU’s next top diplomat, emphasized that China should face higher costs for its support of Russia amid the Ukraine conflict. Speaking at her confirmation hearing, Kallas argued that without Beijing’s backing, Moscow would struggle to sustain its military campaign. She urged the EU to take a tougher stance on China and stressed the need for Europe to counter growing alliances between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, November 12
Malaysia economy likely lost some steam in Q3 - Reuters Poll. Malaysia's GDP growth slowed to 5.3% in Q3 2024 from 5.9% in Q2, driven by strong private consumption and construction activity despite declines in mining output. The services and electronics manufacturing sectors continued to expand. Economists predict that positive drivers will sustain growth into 2025, though challenges such as reduced demand from China and potential U.S. tariffs under President-elect Trump may weigh on exports. Pranoy Krishna, Reuters, November 12
Unification council official says N. Korea would not open dialogue with U.S. while being paid by Russia. Tae Yong-ho, South Korea’s Peaceful Unification Advisory Council secretary general, stated that North Korea will avoid talks with the U.S. as long as it receives payments from Russia for troop deployment and military cooperation. He emphasized that the U.S. should remain firm on denuclearization and seek China's support. Tae warned that if North Korean casualties rise in Ukraine, public backlash could intensify, complicating Kim Jong-un’s strategy. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, November 13
Court to decide on taking Thaksin case by Nov. 22. Thailand’s Constitutional Court will decide whether to proceed with a case against former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The case, initiated by a lawyer’s petition, accuses Thaksin of exerting influence over the Pheu Thai Party despite not being officially involved in politics, potentially violating the constitution. The Attorney General has presented supporting documents, but Thaksin has not provided testimony. Bangkok Post, November 13
Ishiba pledges political funding reforms at start of second term. Following his re-election on Nov. 11, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba vowed to tighten political funding rules after a scandal weakened his ruling coalition’s position. He proposed abolishing unreported policy expenses and increasing transparency in spending by lawmakers. Ishiba also called for the creation of an independent oversight body and a public database for funding reports. While seeking opposition support, he discussed economic reforms and tax policy adjustments to address public concerns over inflation and economic growth. Kohei Morioka, The Asahi Shimbun, November 12
Japanese embassy leads high-level meeting to tackle Laos’ illicit drug challenges. A high-level meeting was held in Vientiane to address the ongoing drug-related issues in Laos. Co-hosted by the Japanese Embassy, the Lao National Commission for Drug Control, and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, the discussions focused on implementing the National Agenda for Drug Control, which has been extended through 2025. Emphasizing law enforcement and sustainable development, the meeting included officials from multiple countries to enhance coordination efforts. Souliyasone Ngotsyoudom, The Laotian Times, November 12
Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and China establish joint cargo terminal in Baku. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and China have agreed to set up a new intermodal cargo terminal at the Port of Alat in Baku. The terminal aims to boost container traffic on the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, enhancing trade efficiency between China and Europe. The facility will include a universal cargo yard and a large container yard, with plans to scale up train traffic significantly by 2029. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, November 12
Foreign investors reconsider their commitment to China. Foreign investors are increasingly reassessing their presence in China as competition, regulatory changes, and local market pressures intensify. Analysis of foreign direct investment from 2013 to 2019 reveals three main patterns: erosion of first-mover advantages due to rapid gains by local competitors, challenges adapting to government regulatory shifts, and cultural barriers preventing foreign brands from establishing niche markets. For instance, foreign automakers like Volkswagen and Ford have faced declining sales as local firms lead in electric vehicle innovations. Policy shifts, such as the National Centralized Drug Procurement scheme, have forced pharmaceutical companies to lower prices, reducing profit margins and driving some to exit the market. Efforts to introduce foreign cultural products, like Diageo’s Scotch whisky, have also struggled against established local preferences. Qiuling Gao, Lin Cui, Sihong Wu, Yoona Choi, and Di Fan, East Asia Forum, November 13
South Korea’s military manufacturing hub needs revitalisation. Changwon, the core of South Korea’s defense manufacturing industry, is critical to the success of the “K-Defence” strategy but faces challenges requiring urgent revitalization. Established in the 1970s as South Korea’s planned defense production hub, Changwon has long been central to arms exports and the development of land, air, and maritime systems. However, economic competition, an aging workforce, and outdated infrastructure are eroding its competitiveness. Changwon's defense exports in 2022 contributed $10.8 billion, largely through exports to countries including Poland, Romania, and Egypt. Despite these gains, issues like the exodus of skilled workers and aging infrastructure threaten its global position, especially amid South Korea’s push to rank among the world’s top four arms exporters by 2027. Government efforts, such as Defense Innovation 4.0, emphasize AI, robotics, and other advanced technologies; however, Changwon’s revitalization must integrate these advances with its existing manufacturing base. Modernizing Changwon could enable it to bridge foundational and cutting-edge technologies, ensuring South Korea’s continued industrial and defense strength. Peter Banseok Kwon, East Asia Forum, November 13.
Life in Ladakh Along the Disputed Sino-Indian Border. The 2020 Sino-Indian clashes in Ladakh's Chushul region have greatly impacted the local Changpa community, particularly its women. Traditionally engaged in pastoralism, these women have faced disruptions due to increased military presence and restricted access to grazing lands. The conflict has also accelerated shifts in gender roles, with women taking on more responsibilities in community leadership and economic activities. Despite these challenges, the Changpa women have demonstrated resilience, adapting to new socio-economic realities while striving to preserve their cultural heritage. Meha Dixit, The Diplomat, November 12
Rubio brings China Realism to the State Department. Senator Marco Rubio is set to become the next U.S. Secretary of State. While recognized as a China hawk, Rubio's recent report, "The World China Made," offers a detailed analysis of China's economic achievements, suggesting a potential for a strategic approach akin to Nixon's 1972 engagement with China. This perspective contrasts with more confrontational views, acknowledging China's advancements in high-tech industries and global trade. Rubio's understanding of China's economic strategies may inform a balanced U.S. foreign policy that combines realism with strategic engagement. David P Goldman, Asia Times, November 12
Trump 2.0 Presidency: What Is in Store for Southeast Asia? The re-election of Donald Trump is anticipated to bring changes to U.S. foreign policy, with Southeast Asia likely experiencing reduced engagement. During his first term, Trump attended only the 2017 ASEAN summit and often neglected multilateral institutions, a trend expected to continue. His "America First" approach may lead to decreased U.S. involvement in regional initiatives and a retreat from global leadership on issues like climate change and public health. Southeast Asian nations may need to adapt to a more transactional U.S. foreign policy, focusing on bilateral relations and navigating the complexities of U.S.-China competition. Hoang Thi Ha and William Choong, FULCRUM, November 12
Does the Arakan Army have the Capacity to Govern Rakhine? The Arakan Army (AA) has significantly expanded its control in Myanmar's Rakhine State, seizing over two-thirds of the territory, including areas near the state capital, Sittwe, and the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone. Despite these military successes, the AA faces challenges in governance due to limited resources and infrastructure. The region's dependence on central Myanmar for essential services, coupled with potential conflicts involving Rohingya militants, complicates the AA's administrative ambitions. While the AA has grown from 26 members in 2009 to approximately 40,000 troops, establishing effective governance requires addressing socio-economic needs and fostering regional stability. Kyaw Hsan Hlaing, FULCRUM, November 12