Asia Daily: November 11, 2024
Japan PM Ishiba survives parliament vote as Trump looms large. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba narrowly secured his position after a run-off vote in parliament, following his coalition's loss of a majority in last month's election. Now leading a minority government, Ishiba faces challenges in passing a supplementary budget amid economic pressures and potential trade tensions with the incoming Trump administration. As part of his efforts to strengthen ties, Ishiba plans to meet Trump during his visit to the U.S. following the G20 summit in Brazil. John Geddie and Tim Kelly, Reuters, November 11
China delimits a contested South China Sea shoal in a dispute with Philippines. China released coordinates to demarcate its territorial waters around Scarborough Shoal, a contested area also claimed by the Philippines. This move follows recent clashes between Chinese and Philippine vessels. China argues that its actions align with international law, despite a 2016 arbitration ruling rejecting its claims. The move came just days after Philippine President Marcos signed laws defining the country’s maritime zones, which Beijing criticized as infringing on its sovereignty. AP News, November 10
Bipartisan parliamentary delegation to visit U.S. for meetings with Trump aides. South Korean lawmakers from both ruling and opposition parties will travel to Washington this week to engage with officials close to President-elect Donald Trump. The delegation, which includes former Foreign Minister Park Jin, aims to strengthen ties amid Trump's return to the White House. Planned activities include the ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum and meetings with figures like Mike Pompeo and Bill Hagerty. National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik also sent Trump a congratulatory letter. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, November 11
Marcos sees no change in Philippines-U.S. ties under Trump. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. expressed confidence that relations with the U.S. will remain stable following Donald Trump’s recent election win. Marcos, speaking at a reception in Pasay City, emphasized the deep, historical ties between the two countries. He conveyed his eagerness to collaborate with Trump on shared interests, reiterating that the Philippines’ longstanding partnership with the U.S. would continue to flourish. Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, November 11
Amnesty bills expected in December. Thailand’s ruling Pheu Thai Party plans to introduce an amnesty bill in parliament on December 12, alongside proposals from other parties. The bill aims to pardon political offenses but will exclude charges under the lese majeste law (Section 112) and other severe offenses. The move follows a prior House rejection of including lese majeste in amnesty. Discussions are ongoing regarding the referendum bill, with Pheu Thai advocating a simple majority vote requirement. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, November 12
Prabowo witnesses Indonesia-China business deals worth $10 billion inked. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto oversaw the signing of agreements between Indonesian and Chinese companies valued at over $10 billion during his state visit to Beijing. The deals cover sectors such as high-tech manufacturing, renewable energy, and food security. Prabowo emphasized the importance of collaboration for regional stability and economic growth, while committing to creating a favorable investment environment in Indonesia. Antara News, November 11
Turkey ready to buy Kazakh meat at twice the price offered by China. Kazakhstan's Ministry of Agriculture announced that Turkey is prepared to purchase Kazakh beef at nearly $11 per kilogram, significantly higher than China's offer of $5.5 per kilogram. The agreement follows recent diplomatic efforts to expand Kazakhstan's export markets. Turkey recently lifted longstanding import restrictions, enabling Kazakhstan to explore new trade opportunities. Dmitry Pokidaev, The Times of Central Asia, November 11
Party leader of Vietnam holds phone talks with President-elect of U.S. General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam To Lam spoke with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to congratulate him on his election. The two discussed strengthening the Vietnam-U.S. Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, particularly in areas like trade and investment. Lam emphasized Vietnam’s commitment to stable, long-term bilateral ties for mutual benefit. Trump expressed satisfaction with the progress in relations and accepted an invitation to visit Vietnam, while also inviting Lam to visit the U.S. Vietnam News, November 12
Myanmar junta media hail 'success' of regime boss's visit to China. Myanmar’s junta leader Min Aung Hlaing concluded a visit to China where he met with Premier Li Qiang and other regional leaders. The talks focused on economic cooperation, including the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor and infrastructure projects. Li reiterated support for Myanmar's sovereignty and the junta's planned elections, despite widespread criticism. The trip, hailed as a success by state media, comes amid Myanmar’s ongoing internal conflict and economic struggles. The Irrawaddy, November 11
Ten killed in India's Manipur after firefight with security forces. Ten armed men were killed in a clash with security forces in Manipur on Monday following an attack on a police station. The state has been divided by ethnic conflict between the Meitei majority and the tribal Kuki community since last year, with tensions flaring after a court ruling on economic benefits. Authorities described the attackers as militants, while a tribal group claimed they were village volunteers killed in a planned assault. The ongoing violence has resulted in over 250 deaths and 60,000 displaced. Tora Agarwala, Reuters, November 11
Singapore’s PM Wong and China’s Vice-Premier Ding reaffirm ‘positive momentum’ in ties. During a two-day visit to Singapore, China’s Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang met with Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, where they reaffirmed strong bilateral relations and explored cooperation in areas like trade, digital technologies, and sustainable development. The talks, part of the Joint Council for Bilateral Cooperation, focused on enhancing strategic partnerships, including projects like the Suzhou Industrial Park and the Tianjin Eco-city. The meeting also touched on regional economic challenges and plans to celebrate 35 years of diplomatic ties next year. Kimberly Lim, South China Morning Post, November 11
North Korea ratifies mutual defence treaty with Russia. North Korea has officially ratified a mutual defense pact with Russia, obligating both nations to provide military aid if attacked. The agreement, signed by Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin in June, strengthens their military ties amid ongoing international concerns. Reports indicate that over 10,000 North Korean troops are already in Russia, supporting its war efforts in Ukraine, with some engaging in combat near the border. The treaty is seen as a move to elevate their relationship to an alliance. Hyonhee Shin, Reuters, November 11
Yoon calls for proactive efforts to ease income, education inequality. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol urged for measures to address income and education inequality as he begins the second half of his presidency. During a meeting with senior aides, Yoon emphasized the need to combat social polarization while focusing on supporting small businesses and curbing inflation. He outlined a shift away from direct cash handouts towards providing opportunities for the underprivileged. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, November 11
Laos, Russia team up on unexploded ordnance clearance in Houaphanh Province. The Laotian and Russian governments have launched a joint initiative to clear unexploded ordnance (UXO) in Houaphanh Province, specifically in Viengxay and Sam Nuea districts. This project, running until 2025, focuses on removing UXOs from areas near schools, government offices, and agricultural sites, enhancing local safety. The collaboration, led by Laos’s Deputy Defense Minister Pasith Thiengtham and Russia’s Ambassador Vladimir Kalinin, supports sustainable development in the affected regions. Phonethida Sitthixay, The Laotian Times, November 11
Deported Tajik opposition activist Ikromov sentenced to 23 years in prison. Tajik opposition figure Farrukh Ikromov, who sought asylum in Europe, was deported from Poland to Tajikistan and sentenced to 23 years in prison. Ikromov, previously involved in protests against President Rahmon, was accused of anti-state activities. His deportation has drawn criticism from rights groups, who fear harsh treatment. Reports indicate his sentencing occurred in Dushanbe in October after his transfer from a pre-trial detention center. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, November 11
Thai Foreign Policy in the Twilight Zone. Thailand’s foreign policy in 2024 reflects ongoing domestic political instability, limiting its influence within ASEAN and Southeast Asia. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, viewed as a proxy for her father Thaksin, faces precarious support from a royalist-military coalition, risking swift removal. Paetongtarn’s early focus on Thailand's "soft power" has leaned toward tourism branding rather than substantive diplomatic initiatives. Relations with Myanmar illustrate the constraints: while migration from Myanmar increases, Thailand maintains a diplomatic stance supportive of the Myanmar junta, eschewing ASEAN’s consensus approach. Former foreign ministry officials and progressive politicians have criticized this stance, pressing for deeper engagement with ASEAN unity and human rights protection. Current Foreign Minister Maris Saisamponga, appointed due to connections rather than expertise, faces challenges in directing foreign policy effectively, especially on Myanmar and Mekong sub-regional matters. Thailand’s experienced diplomats are capable, yet political disunity undermines Thailand’s potential influence. Susannah Patton, Lowy Institute, November 12
Has Indonesia Fallen into China's Nine-Dash Line Trap? Indonesia’s recent joint statement with China suggests a change in its South China Sea policy, indicating potential recognition of China’s controversial nine-dash line claim. This undermines Indonesia’s longstanding rejection of overlapping claims in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) as upheld by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry later attempted to clarify that the country does not officially recognize the nine-dash line, but the joint statement with China has raised concerns about Indonesia's commitment to its own maritime claims and regional stability. This policy shift also risks alienating ASEAN allies and undermines the unified stance necessary for negotiating an ASEAN-China Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. Aristyo Rizka Darmawan, Lowy Institute, November 12
China Slides Open Economic and Diplomatic Doors with Visa-Free Travel. China’s visa-free travel policies, introduced in late 2023, have fueled a substantial increase in tourism, with 17.254 million visitors in the first half of 2024—a 129.9% rise from the previous year. These policies, which include mutual exemptions, unilateral waivers, and 144-hour transit options, aim to boost China’s slowing economy and serve as diplomatic outreach by inviting international visitors. Increased foreign tourism stimulates spending across hospitality, transport, and services, supporting job creation amid high youth unemployment. The approach also improves China’s image abroad, countering Western narratives through influencers and firsthand visitor accounts. However, rising tourism strains infrastructure in major destinations, with cities like Chongqing urging residents to avoid popular sites during peak periods. Authorities must balance economic gains with local residents' needs to avoid overtourism issues and ensure sustained, harmonious growth. Songshan (Sam) Huang, East Asia Forum, November 11
Intelligence Sharing as an Alternative to ‘Asian NATO’. Proposals for an “Asian NATO” risk escalating tensions in the Asia Pacific, whereas intelligence sharing presents a viable path to improve security without forcing nations into polarized alliances. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s recent suggestion for an Asian military alliance has faced criticism from China and concerns from the U.S. and Southeast Asian nations, who fear heightened regional friction. In contrast, frameworks like the Quad are already advancing security collaboration in areas such as maritime monitoring and cybersecurity. Intelligence sharing initiatives, including ASEAN’s “Our Eyes” for counterterrorism and the U.S.-Philippines partnership, provide models for regional cooperation without militarization. Expanding these networks to share geospatial and cyber intelligence could strengthen collective security while avoiding a Cold War-style alliance model. However, challenges include varied security infrastructure across Asia and vulnerabilities exposed by recent cyberattacks, highlighting the need for technical support and capacity-building. By deepening intelligence-sharing frameworks with secure protocols and wider partner inclusion, Asia Pacific nations could foster regional security without aggravating tensions. Asher Ellis, East Asia Forum, November 12
New Season, New Opportunities in Myanmar’s Civil War. As Myanmar’s dry season begins, pro-democracy fighters are advancing toward Mandalay, moving the civil war from rural regions to urban areas, which poses both risks and opportunities. While the Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military) still dominates the skies with drones and airstrikes, improved road access and captured resources have improved the resistance’s logistical support. The Tatmadaw remains well-entrenched in urban centers, benefitting from fortified defenses and new conscripts. However, shifting dynamics, including the resistance’s expanded drone capabilities and more accessible resupply routes, suggest this season may not deliver the same advantage to the Tatmadaw as in prior years. Antonio Graceffo, Geopolitical Monitor, November 11
Africa-India Ties: The Continent’s Next Big Relationship or Over-Hyped? Despite expectations following India's advocacy for the African Union’s G-20 seat in 2023, India-Africa relations remain limited by practical challenges. While Indian investments and diplomatic efforts in Africa have grown, with trade recovering to $97.8 billion in 2022 and expanded embassy presence, inconsistencies hinder progress. India has not hosted an India-Africa Forum Summit since 2015, a gap that contrasts with other powers’ outreach. Focused on South Asia, China relations, and Western partnerships, India’s foreign ministry faces constraints in sustaining African ties. This capacity shortfall affects India’s development financing, diminishing the impact of its programs. Barnaby Joseph Dye and Punkhuri Kumar, The Diplomat, November 11
Naquib Al-Attas’ Royal Professorship: Whither an Inclusive ‘Madani’ Malaysia? The recent conferral of the prestigious Royal Professorship upon Syed Muhammad Naquib Al-Attas may signal renewed influence for his ideas within Malaysia, especially regarding the “Islamisation of knowledge.” This honor, awarded in October 2024, ties back to Al-Attas’ longstanding relationship with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and shared history with the Muslim Youth Movement of Malaysia (ABIM), which Anwar once led. While Al-Attas’ scholarship has shaped Malaysia's intellectual landscape, his influence has sometimes promoted exclusivist positions on Islam and culture, such as restricting non-Muslim use of "Allah." Given Anwar’s more inclusive Madani vision for Malaysia, there are questions about how Al-Attas’ views will align with or challenge this agenda. Mohd Faizal Musa, Fulcrum, November 11