China
China’s Xi Jinping doubles down on Greater Bay Area integration on Guangdong trip. Xi instructed Guangdong to deepen cooperation with Hong Kong and Macau on technology, infrastructure, and market regulation, align legislation, law enforcement, and judicial processes, and push fuller market integration. He urged pairing market and state efforts, stronger Belt and Road participation, inland industrial support, jobs stability, and anti-corruption. The region’s 2024 output hit 14.79 trillion yuan, with 70 unicorns. He Huifeng, South China Morning Post, November 8
EU claims agreement with China to unblock Nexperia chip flow. China will exempt Nexperia exports for civilian use from licensing, restarting chip shipments, Brussels said. Beijing confirmed exemptions and blamed Dutch moves ousting management. About 70% of Nexperia chips are processed in China; wafer supplies halted in late October. Robert Delaney, South China Morning Post, November 8
Cop30 China to join Brazil-led coalition seeking improved carbon trading rules. China will join Brazil’s Open Coalition to integrate carbon markets, alongside the EU and UK, aligning standards to ease cross-border trading and tighten shared emissions caps over time, with revenue recycling for adaptation. The voluntary partnership could unite economies producing nearly 40% of global emissions and seed a coordinated, transparent carbon-credit market. Igor Patrick, South China Morning Post, November 8
China quietly curbs abuse of detention procedure linked to suspect deaths. New guidelines leaked online tighten use of residential surveillance at a designated location: lawyer access within 48 hours without police, stricter approvals via legal departments, bans on interrogations at sites, sessions capped at eight hours, and guarantees of care and eight hours’ rest. China’s top prosecutor and Public Security Ministry issued the rules June 30, after deaths linked to RSDL. Phoebe Zhang, South China Morning Post, November 9
Japan
Controversial Japan political party leader arrested over alleged defamation. Police arrested NHK Party leader Takashi Tachibana on suspicion of defaming Hyogo assembly member Hideaki Takeuchi by repeatedly spreading false claims he was under police questioning and “scheduled to be arrested.” After police denied the claims, Tachibana apologized. Takeuchi resigned and died in January. Authorities cited risk of evidence tampering; Tachibana had planned to run for Ito mayor in December. Kyodo News, November 9
Takaichi: Military attack on Taiwan would justify SDF support. Takaichi said a Chinese use of force against Taiwan—such as a naval blockade amid active fighting—would likely meet Japan’s “survival-threatening situation” threshold for collective self-defense, though each case requires comprehensive assessment. She added civilian shipping lines alone would not qualify. The stance exceeds predecessors, aligns with 2015 security laws, and could heighten tensions with Beijing, and signals firmer coordination with allies. Yoshiyuki Komurata, Keishi Nishimura, and Nobuhiko Tajima, The Asahi Shimbun, November 8
Takaichi plans pay cuts for herself and her ministers. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will seek revisions to the public servant remuneration law to reduce Cabinet salaries and suspend additional allowances after a ministers’ meeting Tuesday. The move signals reform and aligns with the Japan Innovation Party’s drive to curb lawmakers’ privileges in the Diet. The Japan Times, November 8
South Korea
Ex-President Yoon refuses appearance for questioning by special counsel. Former President Yoon Suk Yeol skipped a Saturday summons over alleged interference in a Marine’s 2023 death probe; investigators re-notified him to appear Tuesday after a prior Oct. 23 no-show. He remains in custody over a failed December martial law bid and faces separate abuse-of-power allegations tied to ex-defense minister Lee Jong-sup. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, November 8
Presidential chief of staff to visit UAE this week for defense industry talks. Kang Hoon-sik will travel to the United Arab Emirates to discuss defense-industry cooperation, acting as special envoy for strategic economic ties. Meetings with senior officials follow President Lee Jae Myung’s Oct. 31 talk with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khalid at APEC. The UAE bought Cheongung II missiles in 2022. Kang recently visited Poland, Romania, and Norway to expand arms partnerships. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, November 10
North Korea
North Korea threatens ‘offensive action,’ condemns U.S.–South Korea security talks. North Korea’s defense minister No Kwang Chol threatened “more offensive action,” denouncing U.S.–South Korea security talks and the U.S. carrier George Washington’s Busan visit a day after a ballistic missile launch. Seoul condemned the test. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said it posed no immediate threat. The warning followed new U.S. sanctions; Trump said he was willing to meet Kim Jong Un. Hyunjoo Jin, Reuters, November 8
Thailand
Party delays censure bid plan. Opposition People’s Party postponed a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, saying evidence of serious wrongdoing remains insufficient after his eight-point statement. Deputy leader Sirikanya Tansakun vowed intensified oversight and action if new misconduct emerges, even at risk to the pact with Bhumjaithai. Pheu Thai criticized the retreat, while the party cited progress against online scam networks. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, November 9
Vietnam
Numerous laws to be revised in 10th session of the 15th National Assembly. From Nov. 10–14, the National Assembly will debate draft laws on population, disease prevention, civil and criminal judgment enforcement, forensic examination, reception of citizens, complaints, denunciations, investment, drug prevention, pricing, and civil aviation; review security-related amendments; and vote on the 2026 socio-economic plan, state budget, and central allocations, plus ratification proposals and the Gia Binh International Airport investment policy. Vietnam News, November 9
Myanmar
Junta creates body to fast-track China’s BRI projects in Myanmar. The regime formed an Aug. 15 Leading Committee, chaired by Min Aung Hlaing, to coordinate CMEC and border zone projects, including Kyaukphyu port, amid war disruptions and Beijing’s pressure. Recent battlefield gains along key routes preceded the move; China backs elections in December–January, expecting implementation once a government is installed. Maung Kavi, The Irrawaddy, November 7
Cambodia
Cambodia reaffirms commitment to turning border with Thailand into zone of peace, friendship, and cooperation. Deputy Prime Minister Prak Sokhonn briefed diplomats on implementing the Oct. 26 Kuala Lumpur Joint Declaration as the basis for rebuilding trust and resolving disputes under international law. Priorities include releasing soldiers, withdrawing heavy weapons, demining, boundary settlement, tackling transnational crime, and restoring diplomatic ties. Khmer Times, November 9
Philippines
ICC issues arrest warrant for ally of Philippine ex-President Duterte over drug war, ombudsman says. The ombudsman said the ICC issued a warrant for Senator Ronald Dela Rosa over the Duterte-era crackdown; the justice ministry is verifying, and the ICC said no such warrant has been issued via official channels. The senator and Duterte have challenged cooperation with The Hague. Extradition rules would apply, officials said. Karen Lema and Toby Sterling, Reuters, November 8
China Urges PH to Stop ‘Provocation and Propaganda’ in South China Sea. Beijing’s Defense Ministry, via the Chinese Embassy in Manila, urged the Philippines to halt “infringement, provocation and propaganda” in the South China Sea, warning of consequences and blaming Manila’s cooperation with the U.S., Japan, and Australia. It cited commitment to dialogue. The DND and AFP rejected the claims, asserting sovereign decisions. Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, November 9
Indonesia
Indonesia President Prabowo’s approval steady at 78% despite challenges. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s approval stands at 78%, little changed from 80.9% in January, an Indikator Politik survey of 1,220 respondents found Oct. 20–27. Dissatisfaction was 20.8%. Respondents credited anti-corruption efforts, social aid, and the free-meals program, while views on the political situation were weakest. Slower Q3 growth at 5.04% and protests framed his first year. Security ratings were highest. Bernadette Christina, Reuters, November 8
Indonesia, U.K. sign climate cooperation pact at COP30 in Brazil. Indonesia and the U.K. signed an MoU in Belem to accelerate a just, low-carbon transition through joint projects, knowledge exchange, and technical training; align policies; and improve transparent carbon governance. The deal creates a Joint Steering Committee, supports energy transition and FOLU Net Sink 2030 goals, and embeds low-carbon planning across government levels. Heru Andriyanto, Jakarta Globe, November 9
Prabowo Forms Police Reform Commission After Nationwide Protests. President Prabowo Subianto created a 10-member commission to reform the police after nationwide protests over the death of delivery driver Affan Kurniawan. Chaired by former constitutional court chief justice Jimly Asshiddiqie, the panel includes Mahfud MD, Yusril Ihza Mahendra, three former police chiefs, and incumbent Listyo Sigit Prabowo. Agnes Valentina Christa, Jakarta Globe, November 7
Taiwan
Taiwan VP Hsiao Bi-khim makes historic address at 2025 IPAC summit. Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim delivered the first address by a Taiwanese vice president to a European parliament at IPAC’s Brussels assembly, urging democratic solidarity, whole-of-society resilience, and preparedness. She stressed peace in the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan’s economic role. Lawmakers from over 50 countries attended. Taiwan participated as an IPAC member, with Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung present. Wu Bo-wei and Chao Yen-hsiang, Focus Taiwan, November 8
Lawmakers reject all 4 NCC nominees; commission unable to make policy. Taiwan’s legislature voted down four National Communications Commission nominees, 50–60 each, short of the 57 needed, leaving only three commissioners and no quorum to set policy—advisory meetings only. The DPP backed the picks; the KMT and TPP opposed, citing professionalism and bias concerns. Chiang chair, Cherng vice chair designate. Kuo Chien-shen and Lee Hsin-Yin, Focus Taiwan, November 7
Kazakhstan
Tokayev secures $17B in U.S. deals, Trump hints at Kazakhstan visit. Kazakhstan signed 29 agreements worth about $17 billion, including a critical minerals MoU and a $1.1 billion Tau-Ken Samruk–Cove Capital tungsten venture. Air Astana ordered up to 15 Boeing 787-9s, lifting Dreamliners to 18 ($7 billion). Trump signaled a possible visit, and cumulative U.S. investment reached $100 billion. Andrei Matveev, The Times of Central Asia, November 7
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyz authorities reject proposal to let wealthy pay for unlimited electricity amid winter deficit. Ahead of winter, the grid operator cut peak household caps from 5 kW to 3 kW and proposed an unlimited-use tariff; President Sadyr Japarov condemned and canceled it, ordering equitable access and disciplinary action. New curbs on government power use could save 40 million kWh monthly, as low Toktogul levels heighten shortages. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, November 7
East Asia
“We Must Depend Entirely on Ourselves”: Policy, Politics, and U.S.–China Relations at the Fourth Plenum. Xi Jinping projects external conciliation while doubling down at home on self-reliance, industrial capacity, and tighter political control. The plenum featured record discipline actions and post-Mao low participation, reflecting ongoing purges and consolidation. Proposed five-year plan priorities elevate industry ahead of innovation and stress supply-chain control, signaling intensified structural competition with the United States rather than market opening. Beijing frames this approach as insurance against shocks and as the basis for perceived parity with Washington. Neil Thomas and Lobsang Tsering, Asia Society Policy Institute, November 5
Kicking the Can Down the Road in U.S.-China Tensions. The first Trump–Xi meeting since 2019 centred on trade and technology, easing frictions without tackling security disputes. Beijing suspended implementation of its rare-earth export control regime, Washington paused certain export restrictions for one year, threatened 100% tariffs were withdrawn, and duties on fentanyl precursors were cut to 10%, lowering the overall U.S. tariff rate on China to 47%. China agreed to resume large soybean purchases and both sides paused reciprocal port fees. Taiwan, Ukraine, the South China Sea, and North Korea were left off the agenda. The encounter stabilized ties and set up reciprocal visits in 2026, buying time while deeper challenges persist. David Shambaugh, CHINA US Focus, November 3
Art of the deal meets great power politics: Trump 2.0’s approach to China. The administration prioritizes transactional gains on trade and technology over a coherent China strategy, with economic officials Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick and private-sector figures exerting notable influence, while human rights and Taiwan receive lower priority. Decision-making is personalized and issue-driven, raising coordination concerns across agencies. Beijing seeks an overarching framework and uses economic leverage to link issues and press for political concessions, aiming to recast relations as primarily cooperative. Without a strategic lens and allied alignment, Washington risks underestimating China’s broader ambitions.
George Yin, MERICS, November 7
China’s Accommodation of Taliban 2.0 Beijing deepens engagement with Afghanistan’s new rulers to manage cross-border security risks and protect regional economic interests, adopting a pragmatic, flexible posture short of formal recognition. By exchanging ambassadors and maintaining an active mission in Kabul, it achieves de facto recognition while retaining legal room to maneuver. The approach blends multilateral inclusion and selective economic outreach—inviting officials to high-level forums, tying Afghanistan into regional security and Belt and Road processes, and pressing the regime to constrain Uyghur militant activity. Investments and aid remain limited, short-horizon, and conditioned on local security, avoiding large deployments or major capital commitments. The strategy normalizes relations, tracks internal power dynamics, and minimizes exposure, aiming chiefly to prevent anti-Chinese threats while steering clear of deep entanglement or overt alignment with Afghan factions. M. Ramin Mansoori, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 7
Japan’s strategic game in African venture capital Tokyo pivots from aid to private investment by mobilizing venture capital for fintech, climate technology, mobility and logistics, while pledging a US$5.5 billion financial package and US$1.5 billion in impact investment at TICAD 9. The plan includes training 300,000 people (30,000 in AI), upgrading health and education infrastructure, and promoting trade partnerships. Japanese firms such as Samurai Incubate Africa, Kepple Africa Ventures, and Uncovered Fund expand portfolios, and the new Uncovered Monex Africa Investment Partnership targets early-stage financing with equity and low-interest debt. Policy tools such as bilateral investment treaties, a proposed Indian Ocean–Africa economic initiative, and the Japan Business Council for Africa aim to reduce risk and integrate start-ups with Japanese corporates. Persistent gaps in early funding, data, and capacity remain, requiring longer horizons and local knowledge. Samir Bhattacharya, East Asia Forum, November 8
Southeast Asia
Rhetoric vs. Reality: The Philippines, ASEAN, and the South China Sea. As 2026 chair, Manila will highlight a Code of Conduct while pragmatically building “minilateral” security ties to address coercion at sea. A new U.S. “Task Force Philippines” with roughly 60 permanent staff led by a one-star flag officer expands operational coordination and contingency response. Recent agreements and access arrangements with Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Germany, India, France, and South Korea illustrate a parallel network outside ASEAN mechanisms, aimed at deterrence and capacity-building. The chairmanship offers symbolism and a platform, outcomes will hinge on this broader coalition. Monica Sato, CSIS, November 7
South Asia
Competition in the Ocean: China’s Vertical Expansion and India’s Horizontal Dominance. Beijing is building a layered maritime footprint across the Indian Ocean through ports, corridors, and dual-use facilities from Gwadar and Hambantota to Chittagong and the Coco Islands, designed to ease the Malacca chokepoint and support sustained presence. New Delhi counters with a wide arc of partnerships and naval activity from the Gulf to Southeast Asia, aiming to entrench regional primacy while deepening cooperation with the United States and Japan. Energy security and logistics drive both tracks: China’s seaborne oil lifelines and India’s import dependence shape infrastructure choices, exercises, and access deals. The contest pairs China’s “vertical” southward build-out with India’s “horizontal” networked reach.
Mohammadreza Mohammadi, Sino-Southeast Initiative, November 7