Asia Daily: November 1, 2024
Slovakia keen to join China-led group on Ukraine war, visiting leader tells Xi Jinping. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico expressed Slovakia’s intent to join the “Friends of Peace” group, initiated by China and Brazil at the United Nations to advocate a diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine conflict. During a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Fico lauded China’s “fair and objective” approach, aligning with nations like South Africa and Indonesia in supporting diplomatic engagement. Fico’s remarks, however, contrast with EU and NATO stances, which emphasize Ukraine’s central role in peace terms, potentially positioning Slovakia closer to Hungary in EU debates on the war. Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, November 1
Party official welcomes new Chinese Ambassador to Việt Nam. Secretary of the Party Central Committee Le Hoai Trung met with newly appointed Chinese Ambassador He Wei in Hanoi, emphasizing Vietnam's strategic priority on strengthening ties with China. Trung urged deeper cooperation and implementation of high-level agreements, aiming to build a shared future. Ambassador He expressed China’s commitment to supporting Party-to-Party relations and proposed collaborative efforts in areas like Party building and socialism. Both sides emphasized enhancing public understanding of the bilateral relationship’s significance. Vietnam News, November 1
North Korea will back Russia until victory in Ukraine, foreign minister says. North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui expressed Pyongyang’s support for Russia’s “sacred struggle” in Ukraine, stating that North Korea stands with Russia until victory. In talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow, Choe described their relationship as a “military comradeship,” supported by Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin. Lavrov highlighted strong military ties between the nations, while Choe accused the U.S. and South Korea of plotting a nuclear strike, reinforcing North Korea's stance on enhancing its nuclear readiness. Dmitry Antonov, Reuters, November 1
S. Korea, U.S. stage joint drone strike drills for 1st time. South Korea and the United States conducted their first joint drone strike drills on Friday, following North Korea’s recent launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile. The exercises involved South Korea’s RQ-4B Global Hawk surveillance drone and the U.S. MQ-9 Reaper attack drone, simulating a scenario to respond to an enemy provocation. The South Korean drone identified targets and relayed data to the U.S. Reaper, which then launched a precision GBU-38 munition strike. Officials publicized the drills to underscore allied military capabilities against North Korean threats. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, November 1
IFC increases investments in Central Asia. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) committed $1.04 billion to Central Asia in fiscal 2024, supporting renewable energy, financial inclusion, agriculture, and infrastructure. Investments include $228 million across 10 financial institutions, with significant funds directed to women entrepreneurs and rural areas. Key projects include a solar plant in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan’s first green bond. IFC aims to promote economic growth through sustainability and private-sector development to help Central Asia transition to net-zero emissions. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, November 1
Election Commission vows justice in Thaksin case. Thailand's Election Commission (EC) committed to an impartial review of petitions alleging that former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra improperly influenced the Pheu Thai Party. EC Chairman Ittiporn Boonpracong stated that complaints, including those by opposition figures, have been consolidated and are under investigation by a fact-finding panel, which may extend its 30-day deadline. Allegations center on meetings at Thaksin's home involving coalition leaders before selecting a prime minister. The EC's findings could result in Pheu Thai’s dissolution if proven to breach the Political Parties Act. Chairith Yonpiam, Bangkok Post, November 1
Japan and EU announce a security and defense partnership as regional tensions rise. Japan and the European Union formalized a security and defense partnership on Friday, marking the EU’s first such agreement with an Indo-Pacific country. Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell emphasized joint military exercises, defense industry exchanges, and potential intelligence sharing to address challenges from China, North Korea, and Russia. This partnership aligns with Japan’s expanded military strategy, including arms exports and cooperation with global allies, as both regions aim to address interconnected security concerns. Mari Yamaguchi, AP News, November 1
Nikkei sinks over 1,000 points on weak chip stocks ahead of U.S. data. Japan’s Nikkei index fell more than 1,000 points on Friday, led by a downturn in chip stocks amid cautious trading ahead of U.S. employment data and the upcoming presidential election. The Nikkei closed down 2.63% at 38,053.67, marking its largest drop since late September, while the Topix index declined by 1.90%. Analysts cited volatility concerns fueled by the close U.S. race and recent remarks by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda suggesting a potential rate hike, which also drove the yen higher. Kyodo News, November 1
Laos’ inflation rate drops to 20.7 percent in October. Laos saw a slight decrease in inflation to 20.7% in October, down from 21.7% in September, as reported by the National Statistics Bureau. Key price increases included accommodation, utilities, and food, while healthcare costs declined by 30.8%. Factors contributing to the decrease in inflation include easing exchange rate pressures and fluctuating global oil prices. Despite the reduction, rising living costs continue to affect households, with increases in essentials like food and utilities still significant.
Oulayvanh Sisounonth, The Laotian Times, November 1
North Korea says record test was new Hwasong-19 intercontinental ballistic missile. North Korea conducted a record-breaking test of its Hwasong-19 ICBM, a large solid-fuel missile with advanced range capabilities, which Pyongyang claims as the “world’s strongest strategic missile.” The missile flew over 7,687 km high, sparking international condemnation, particularly from the U.S., South Korea, and Japan. Leader Kim Jong Un emphasized North Korea’s missile development as irreversible. The launch occurred amid Pyongyang's military alliance with Moscow, raising concerns over potential technology sharing between Russia and North Korea. Hyunsu Yim, Josh Smith and Hyun Young Yi, Reuters, November 1
Hindus in Muslim-majority Bangladesh rally to demand protection from attacks. Tens of thousands of Hindus gathered in Chattogram, Bangladesh, to demand protection from rising violence and the withdrawal of sedition charges against Hindu leaders. Following Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's ouster, Hindu groups report over 2,000 attacks since August, though Nobel laureate and interim leader Muhammad Yunus disputes this figure. The unrest has drawn international attention, with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. figures voicing concern. Hindu activists are pressing for legal protections, a ministry for minorities, and a tribunal to address oppression cases. Julhas Alam, AP News, November 1
China expands visa-free policy to 9 more countries including South Korea. China will allow citizens from nine countries to enter without a visa for stays up to 15 days starting November 8, 2024. This new policy, effective through December 31, 2025, includes South Korea, Norway, Finland, Slovakia, Denmark, Iceland, Andorra, Monaco, and Liechtenstein, enabling visitors entry for business, tourism, family visits, and transit. The foreign ministry states this measure aims to simplify cross-border travel for ordinary passport holders from these countries. Ethan Wang and Ryan Woo, Reuters, November 1
S. Korea not considering troop dispatch to Ukraine: nat'l security adviser. South Korea’s National Security Adviser Shin Won-sik confirmed Friday that the country has no plans to send troops to Ukraine, despite reports of North Korean forces potentially aiding Russia. During a parliamentary audit, Shin emphasized the importance of deploying South Korean observers and analysts to monitor developments. He warned that North Korean troops could gain advanced combat knowledge, including drone tactics, which might strengthen North Korea’s military. Shin stated that North Korea’s missile and nuclear advancements have only reinforced South Korea’s security alliances with the U.S. and Japan. Kang Yoon-seung, Yonhap News Agency, November 1
TNLA fights Myanmar junta for key road junction. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) clashed with Myanmar junta forces over a key road junction in Nawnghkio, Shan State. Fighting erupted after junta troops launched raids, supported by airstrikes and artillery, near the Mandalay-Lashio road. Although TNLA forces briefly withdrew, they have since encircled junta positions. Over 2,000 residents have fled the violence. The strategic road links several critical areas, and control over it remains contested, highlighting escalating resistance activity in northern Myanmar. The Irrawaddy, November 1
Nippon Ishin likely to hold election as Baba comes under fire. The Japan Innovation Party (Nippon Ishin) is expected to hold a presidential election after criticism of leader Nobuyuki Baba following the party's losses in the recent Lower House election. The party’s executive board met on October 31 and agreed to an online vote among members to determine the need for a leadership election, with results expected by November 6. Baba acknowledged the party’s defeat and indicated he may not run if a leadership election is seen as a no-confidence vote. Some senior party members have voiced support for new leadership. Kei Kobayashi and Yuichi Nobira, The Asahi Shimbun, November 1
Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim poised for third China trip in 2 years. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will embark on his third visit to China next week, underscoring Malaysia’s commitment to close ties with Beijing amid ongoing South China Sea disputes. During the four-day visit, Anwar will meet with China’s top leaders in Beijing and Shanghai, with an agenda likely focusing on economic issues. Malaysia, China’s second-largest ASEAN trading partner, saw bilateral trade reach $190.24 billion in 2023. Alyssa Chen, South China Morning Post, November 1
Kazakhstan seeks to form consortium with Korea for $10 bil. nuclear power plant project. Kazakhstan is advancing plans for its first nuclear power plant, valued between $10 billion and $12 billion, and is considering a multinational consortium with partners such as South Korea, France, China, and Russia. Deputy Foreign Minister Alibek Kuantyrov emphasized Kazakhstan’s uranium resources and strong public support, following a referendum with 71.12% approval. Talks with South Korean firm Doosan Enerbility are underway, with a recent memorandum to support Kazakhstan’s energy modernization efforts as the country targets carbon neutrality by 2060. Kim Hyun-bin, The Korea Times, November 1
U.S. sanctions Uzbek companies supplying Russia with equipment. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned Uzbek companies Uzstanex and The Elite Investment Group for supplying critical technology and equipment to Russia. Uzstanex, part of StanexGroup, supplied machine tools to Russia via Shanghai Winsun in China, while The Elite Investment Group provided $190,000 in high-priority goods, including transformers, through GUCLU GLOBAL. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo emphasized these actions to hinder Russia's military capabilities in Ukraine. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, November 1
Marcos urged to cooperate with ICC. The Nagkaisa Labor Coalition appealed to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to permit the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate alleged human rights abuses during Rodrigo Duterte's drug war. Citing Philippine law allowing international tribunal cooperation, Nagkaisa Chairman Sonny Matula emphasized accountability for widespread violence. Duterte recently admitted to inciting police action against suspects, raising questions about self-defense claims. The ICC retains jurisdiction over alleged crimes before the Philippines’ 2018 ICC withdrawal, as confirmed by the Supreme Court. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, November 2
What a Trump Re-election Would Mean for Taiwan. Taiwan may face intensified pressure to increase defense spending if Donald Trump wins re-election, as his stance combines a transactional approach with strategic support for Taiwan amid US-China tensions. While Trump’s policies could seek financial commitments from Taiwan, security experts believe US support will continue. Trump's previous administration solidified US-Taiwan relations through arms sales and high-level visits, a trend likely to persist as Taiwan’s strategic role grows in the context of countering China. Claus Soong, MERICS, November 1
Lost in Translation: China’s Elite-Centric Approach in Cambodia. China’s investments in Cambodia often target elite networks, sidelining grassroots involvement and fueling skepticism among ordinary Cambodians. Although Beijing's initiatives, particularly the Belt and Road projects, have reshaped Cambodia’s infrastructure, they have also raised concerns over environmental impact, crime, and economic disparity. To counter negative public perceptions and build lasting goodwill, China may need to engage more inclusively with Cambodia’s broader population, especially its youth, ensuring that development aligns with local aspirations. Chhay Lim, Lowy Institute, November 1
Will the EU Agree to Use Economic Sanctions Against China? The EU faces pressure from the U.S. to adopt economic sanctions against China, including export and investment controls, yet Germany and other member states worry about potential economic retaliation. For consensus, the EU must address concerns over economic fallout, particularly for industries heavily tied to China. A unified stance may involve compensation mechanisms for affected businesses, improving alignment with U.S. policy goals. Laura von Daniels, Brookings, November 1
Promises and Perils of the Future Made in Australia Act. The Future Made in Australia Act aims to bolster domestic manufacturing and sustainable industries, positioning Australia competitively in clean energy and advanced technology. However, experts caution that the ambitious framework faces challenges, including funding needs, regulatory barriers, and risks of insufficient coordination across sectors. The Act could improve Australia’s economic resilience, but its success depends on clear implementation strategies and alignment with global market trends. Marina Yue Zhang, Roy Green, and Mark Dodgson, East Asia Forum, November 1
Trouble Among the Chin of Myanmar. Internal tensions within Myanmar’s Chin resistance movement have led to clashes between the Chinland Council and the Chin Brotherhood Alliance (CBA), both vying for control in Chin State. Disagreements over governance, territory, and alliances, particularly regarding Paletwa Township, fuel these divisions. The conflict reflects broader tribal and generational divides, complicating unified resistance efforts against Myanmar's junta. Michael F. Martin, CSIS, November 1
The Death of Reformasi: Anwar Ibrahim, UMNO, and the Betrayal of a Movement. Anwar Ibrahim’s alignment with UMNO, a former adversary, has changed his reformist identity, raising concerns that Malaysia’s Reformasi movement is effectively dead. Once promising to combat corruption and improve democracy, Anwar's concessions for political stability appear to undermine these ideals, aligning instead with entrenched elites and corporate interests. This pragmatism, critics argue, erodes the Reformasi ethos, leaving little hope for genuine systemic change. Sophie Lemière, CSIS, November 1
The State – and Fate – of America’s Indo-Pacific Alliances. The evolving U.S. alliance network in the Indo-Pacific, including ties with Japan, Australia, the Philippines, and South Korea, largely responds to China’s assertive regional actions rather than U.S. domestic politics. Both major U.S. presidential candidates are expected to maintain a stable Indo-Pacific policy focused on countering China. The strategic importance of these alliances is showcased by ongoing security threats, including North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and maritime disputes in the South China Sea. Derek Grossman, The Diplomat, October 16
The ‘Strong Leader’ Online Influence Operations and Filipinos’ Desire for Effective Government. In the Philippines, online influence campaigns capitalize on a popular desire for a decisive, "strong leader." These operations, often aligned with political dynasties like the Marcoses and Dutertes, leverage social media to shape public perception, especially in advance of critical elections. This shows both a democratic ambivalence and a call for leadership that genuinely addresses people’s needs, highlighting complex voter motivations beyond authoritarianism. Jason Vincent A. Cabañes and Jozon A. Lorenzana, Fulcrum, November 1.
Pheu Thai: Between a Rock and a Hard Place. Thailand's Pheu Thai (PT) party struggles to balance its reformist goals with its conservative coalition, facing challenges in appealing to both its traditional base and broader voters. Although recent successes and alliances have temporarily strengthened PT’s position, its reliance on conservative allies, who often block progressive reforms, complicates sustained support. The tension risks alienating younger, reform-minded voters, making PT’s political future uncertain. Eugene Mark, Fulcrum, November 1