Asia Daily: May 9, 2025
China
Xi Says China, Russia to Shoulder Special Responsibility as Major Countries. During a state visit to Moscow on May 8, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin affirmed a deepening China-Russia strategic partnership, committing to uphold global fairness and resist unilateralism. Xi emphasized that both nations, as permanent UN Security Council members, bear a special responsibility to maintain global stability amid growing geopolitical tensions and "bullying" behavior. The leaders agreed to strengthen coordination on multilateral platforms like the UN, BRICS, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, while also expanding cooperation in trade, energy, technology, agriculture, and cultural exchanges. Xinhua, May 8
Japan
Ishiba Faces a Fresh Money Scandal. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has come under scrutiny following revelations that he received over ¥30 million from a supporter without disclosing the funds in political finance reports, according to a report by Shukan Bunshun. The supporter claimed to have purchased party fundraising tickets annually between 2003 and 2014 and provided additional campaign contributions during Ishiba’s bids for the Liberal Democratic Party presidency. The scandal has prompted opposition leader Yoshihiko Noda of the Constitutional Democratic Party to call for Ishiba’s appearance before the House of Representatives’ political ethics council to provide a full explanation. The Japan Times, May 8
Chilean President Gabriel Boric to Make First Visit to Japan. Chilean President Gabriel Boric is scheduled to make his first official visit to Japan since taking office in March 2022. During the trip, Boric will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and visit the World Exposition in Osaka, where he will attend Chile’s national day event on Monday. The Japan Times, May 7
South Korea
PPP Set to Conclude Opinion Polls on Favorability of Presidential Candidate Between Kim, Han. South Korea’s People Power Party (PPP) is concluding a two-day opinion poll to assess favorability between presidential candidate Kim Moon-soo and independent contender and former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo. With just 25 days until the June 3 presidential election, tensions within the conservative party have escalated as Kim resists pressure from party leadership to merge his campaign with Han’s. The latest round of talks between the two candidates ended without agreement. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, May 9
North Korea
N. Korea's Kim Oversees Missile Test, Emphasizes Combat Readiness of Nuclear Forces. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un supervised a joint strike drill involving long-range artillery and the Hwasongpho-11-Ka short-range tactical ballistic missile on May 8. According to state-run KCNA, the exercise aimed to improve military unit familiarity with weapon operations and validate the effectiveness of the nuclear command and mobilization system. The drill also tested the Haekbangashoe nuclear trigger system, introduced in 2023, designed to link launch orders directly to execution. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, May 9
Mongolia
Presidents of Mongolia and Russia Hold Official Meeting. President of Mongolia Khurelsukh Ukhnaa and Russian President Vladimir Putin met officially in Moscow on May 8, 2025, during commemorations marking the 80th anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War. Самбууням.М, MONTSAME, May 8
Thailand
EC Says No Plan to Summon 60 Senators Over Collusion. Thailand’s Election Commission (EC) chairman Ittiporn Boonpracong has denied media reports suggesting that the agency is preparing to summon around 60 senators in connection with collusion allegations from last year’s Senate election. He stated the claims were unfounded and that the investigation, currently in its early stages, involves a joint committee comprising EC and Department of Special Investigation (DSI) officials. Bangkok Post, May 8
Vietnam
PM Requests No Limits to Private Economic Sector Development. Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính emphasized that innovation and private sector development in Vietnam should face no constraints, aligning with national aspirations for prosperity, equity, and modernization. Speaking at a May 8 session with the Government’s policy advisory council, he reviewed a draft National Assembly resolution based on the Politburo’s Resolution No.68-NQ/TW, aimed at advancing the private economic sector. The draft policy framework is structured into three categories: immediate legal changes, necessary adjustments, and longer-term strategic plans. Vietnam News, May 8
Việt Nam's Top Leader Arrives in Moscow, Beginning Official Visit to Russia. General Secretary of the Communist Party of Việt Nam Central Committee Tô Lâm arrived in Moscow on May 8, commencing his official visit to Russia and participation in the 80th Victory Day anniversary celebrations. Accompanied by his wife and a high-level delegation, the visit marks his first to Russia since assuming the party leadership. The delegation was welcomed by senior Russian officials including Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko. Vietnam News, May 8
Laos
Laos Sets Sights on Becoming Asia's Gold Trading Powerhouse. Laos has announced a strategic goal to become Asia’s primary hub for gold trading and processing by 2030. During a key meeting on May 2, Chanthone Sitthixay, CEO of the Lao Bullion Bank (LBB), presented the nation’s long-term vision, which includes bolstering financial and economic stability through the establishment of a regional center for precious metals. Laos currently ranks third in gold production among ASEAN countries and sixth in Asia, with untapped reserves estimated between 500 to 1,000 metric tons—potentially valued at USD 50 to 76 billion. Thongsavanh Souvannasane, Laotian Times, May 8
Cambodia
CDC Reassure US Delegation of Cambodian Efforts to Combat Origin Fraud. The Council for the Development of Cambodia (CDC) reaffirmed the country’s dedication to preventing origin fraud and ensuring transparency in export practices during a May 8 meeting with the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC), led by Reva Price. CDC First Vice-President Sun Chanthol highlighted Cambodia’s legal reforms, including recent inter-ministerial proclamations aimed at strengthening compliance and regulating the issuance of certificates of origin. These initiatives follow growing US concerns over trans-shipment and fraudulent origin claims, which have led to proposed tariffs of up to 3,000% on Cambodian-manufactured solar products and a delayed 49% tariff on other exports. Hin Pisei, Phnom Penh Post, May 8
Indonesia
Prabowo Forms Task Force to Expedite 80,000 Co-ops Plan. President Prabowo Subianto has established a special task force to accelerate the creation of 80,000 Red and White Village Cooperatives across Indonesia. Coordinating Minister for Food Zulkifli Hasan, appointed as task force chair, stated that the initiative will involve deputy ministers as coordinators, with Ferry Juliantono named among them. The program, governed by Presidential Instruction Number 9 of 2025, seeks to promote food self-sufficiency, economic equity, and village independence in alignment with the Golden Indonesia 2045 vision. These cooperatives are intended to serve as community economic hubs, offering services such as savings, loans, and clinics. Andi Firdaus, Raka Adji, ANTARA News, May 8
Indonesia Takes Down Over 1.3 Mln Items of Online Gambling Content. Indonesia’s Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs has removed approximately 1.335 million pieces of online gambling content since October 21, 2024. Minister Meutya Hafid stated that over 1.2 million of these were hosted on gambling websites, while around 132,000 were found on social media platforms. Livia K, Rio F, Raka Adji, ANTARA News, May 8
India - Pakistan
India Says Military Stations Attacked by Pakistan Drones and Missiles. Blasts echoed across Jammu as Indian authorities reported that military installations in Jammu, Pathankot, and Udhampur were targeted by drones and missiles of Pakistani origin during an overnight attack, part of escalating hostilities between the two nuclear-armed nations. Pakistan denied involvement, labeling the claims as baseless and politically driven, while asserting its readiness to defend its sovereignty. Meanwhile, India retaliated by striking what it called nine terrorist infrastructure sites in Pakistan, a claim Islamabad dismissed. Both countries reported downed drones and aircraft from the other side, though details remained contested. Channel News Asia, May 8
Pakistan's US Ambassador Says India, Pakistan Have Contact at National Security Level. Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States, Rizwan Saeed Sheikh, confirmed that India and Pakistan have maintained contact at the level of their respective National Security Councils amid heightened military tensions. In a CNN interview, Sheikh stated that while communication exists, responsibility for de-escalation rests with India, adding that Pakistan reserves the right to respond due to public pressure. Channel News Asia, May 8
Northeast Asia
Trump failing to grasp China’s long-game trade war tactics. As U.S. and Chinese officials prepare for renewed trade negotiations in Switzerland, Beijing has signaled a strategic change by referencing Mao Zedong’s 1938 essay On Protracted War in state media, suggesting a long-term approach to the U.S.-China trade conflict. The piece emphasizes attrition and endurance over quick victories, a strategy reminiscent of Mao’s wartime philosophy against Japan and consistent with China’s historical narrative. In contrast, the Trump administration has approached the trade war with short-term tactics and public spectacle, expecting swift resolution and political gain. Beijing has prepared its population for prolonged hardship, banking on its people’s ability to “eat bitterness,” while highlighting institutional alternatives to U.S.-led systems like the IMF and World Bank. This reflects China’s broader geopolitical strategy of building influence through organizations like the Belt and Road Initiative and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The divergence between the two nations’ expectations shows the U.S. administration’s miscalculation of China’s resolve and ideological framework. The belief that Beijing would swiftly yield to American pressure has not materialized, as the trade war evolves into a war of attrition rooted in Maoist strategic tradition. Tom Harper, Asia Times, May 8
The Return to Strategic Ambiguity: Assessing Trump’s Taiwan Stance
Under President Trump’s renewed tenure, the United States has returned firmly to a policy of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan, refraining from making any explicit commitment to defend the island against potential Chinese aggression. While past administrations have fluctuated in their approach, Trump has echoed traditional ambiguity by refusing to answer direct questions about a defense guarantee. His public comments on Taiwan focus largely on trade and defense spending, criticizing the island for “stealing” semiconductor manufacturing and demanding that it increase defense expenditures to 10% of GDP. This rhetoric has unsettled Taipei, especially amid massive investments by TSMC in the U.S., raising concerns that America's incentive to defend Taiwan could decline. Despite surrounding himself with pro-Taiwan officials, Trump’s view that Taiwan should “pay us for defense” and his invocation of the “madman theory” add unpredictability to U.S. policy. Compared to predecessors like George W. Bush and Joe Biden, who offered greater clarity on defending Taiwan, Trump maintains the longstanding but uncertain status quo. His stance signals a move away from strategic clarity and back to calculated vagueness, leaving the future of U.S. involvement in a Taiwan contingency ambiguous and dependent on evolving political dynamics. Thomas J. Shattuck, Foreign Policy Research Institute, May 7
Southeast Asia
Thailand’s unwinnable war on scammers. Thailand's February 2025 crackdown on transnational scam operations, particularly Chinese-run syndicates in mainland Southeast Asia, yielded only limited and temporary success. Despite rescuing thousands from scam dens in Myanmar and introducing stricter penalties for data misuse, the adaptable nature of scam networks, along with regional instability and internal political rifts, undermine long-term gains. High-profile actions like utility cuts in Myanmar border towns disrupted services for thousands, including hospitals, provoking backlash. The Thai government has also issued arrest warrants for leaders of the Karen National Army, which profits from scam hotspots, but enforcement remains unlikely. As operations shift toward Cambodia and Laos and adopt decentralized cell structures, Thailand's slow and divided response has allowed networks to evolve. Meanwhile, tensions rise over increased Chinese involvement, including a controversial deportation of Uyghurs and growing unease about sovereignty after uncoordinated actions by Chinese officials. The Thai administration’s desire to maintain regional stability and its aging population's reliance on migrant labor further complicate the situation. Without sustained international cooperation and internal political coherence, Thailand’s campaign is likely to falter, and scams will persist. Tita Sanglee, East Asia Forum, May 9
Indonesian Muslims Divided over Prabowo’s Gaza Plan. President Prabowo Subianto’s proposal to temporarily shelter 1,000 injured Palestinians in Indonesia has sparked controversy among the country’s Muslim leaders, with critics accusing him of inadvertently supporting a U.S.-Israeli agenda to depopulate Gaza. While the leaders of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and Muhammadiyah endorsed the plan, several prominent members from both organizations voiced concerns about its timing, lack of clarity, and geopolitical implications. Critics from the Indonesian Ulema Council and civil society warn that Prabowo’s initiative may align with U.S. President Trump’s and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s alleged intent to clear Gaza for redevelopment. Analysts question whether Prabowo consulted the foreign ministry and highlight the absence of detailed planning. Despite the backlash, government preparations for hosting evacuees have begun, and key Muslim political parties in Prabowo’s coalition support the move. Some observers suspect a quid pro quo, as NU and Muhammadiyah were granted mining concessions. With opposition from Türkiye and Saudi Arabia and fears of long-term refugee resettlement, the plan risks damaging Indonesia’s Islamic credibility and domestic cohesion if not managed carefully. Ary Hermawan, FULCRUM, May 8
Portacabins and Swivel Chairs: the Friendly Face of Chinese Help for Myanmar Junta. In the aftermath of a devastating earthquake on March 28, China has dispatched hundreds of prefabricated portacabins and office furniture to Myanmar’s military regime to help restore administrative functions in Naypyitaw. The first shipment of 340 units arrived on May 2, followed by another 108 units, with ministries ordered to resume operations by the end of May. China has also pledged structural experts and continued support, portraying the aid as a symbol of “Pauk-Phaw” friendship. However, Beijing’s involvement extends beyond humanitarian aid; it has backed the junta militarily, helping reclaim territories like Lashio from ethnic armed groups such as the MNDAA. China is also pressuring the Ta’ang National Liberation Army to cede key towns on a major trade route linking China to Mandalay. While portacabins may represent visible support, analysts warn of China’s deeper geopolitical agenda, including shoring up the junta’s control over contested regions under the guise of earthquake recovery. Maung Kavi, The Irrawaddy, May 8
Central Asia
Victory Day Diplomacy: Central Asia’s Balancing Act and Putin’s Diminished Spotlight. Central Asian leaders’ attendance at Russia’s Victory Day parade in Moscow demonstrates a strategic diplomatic balancing act. While the event pays homage to shared Soviet-era history, it also reflects regional pragmatism in navigating relationships with competing global powers. With Russia’s influence weakened by sanctions, war-related disruptions, and economic decline, Central Asia is increasingly aligning with other powers, including China, the European Union, and the United States. Despite appearances of solidarity, leaders like Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev have openly supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity, signaling resistance to Moscow’s geopolitical agenda. The rising assertiveness of Central Asian states was further exemplified by Uzbekistan’s summoning of Russia’s ambassador over provocative comments. For Russia, the symbolic presence of 29 world leaders, including Xi Jinping, helps counter isolation narratives. Yet, for Central Asia, participation is more about preserving autonomy and pursuing a multi-vector foreign policy. Victory Day has thus become a stage for subtle diplomacy, revealing both Russia’s waning influence and the region’s growing confidence on the world stage. Stephen M. Bland, The Times of Central Asia, May 8
South Asia
India loses top fighter jet – bad news for its future air combat. India has lost three of its Rafale EH fighter jets in a recent confrontation with Pakistan, along with one Sukhoi, one MIG, and an Israeli reconnaissance drone. The Rafale, a multirole combat aircraft acquired in a fleet of 34 by India, was outfitted with SCALP cruise missiles and MICA air-to-air missiles during the engagement. One downed Rafale, identified as BS-001, marked the first delivered to the Indian Air Force. The clash occurred over Pakistani airspace, where Pakistani J-10 jets fired PL-15 missiles, a long-range system superior in range and speed to France’s MICA and even the U.S. AMRAAM. Debris from the PL-15, including AESA radar components, was recovered on Indian soil. The encounter demonstrates a growing technological edge in beyond-visual-range (BVR) combat by China and its allies. The broader implications raise concerns for NATO and the U.S., whose AMRAAM missiles are also being outclassed. The U.S. is developing a successor, the AIM-260 JATM, which remains in low-rate production and has yet to enter operational service. Stephen Bryen, Asia Times, May 8
Hindu nationalism threatens India’s secular foundations. Since the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) assumed power in 2014, India’s secular foundations have been increasingly undermined by policies and rhetoric aligned with Hindutva ideology, promoted by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). Key developments include the 2019 Citizenship Amendment Act, which excludes Muslims from fast-track citizenship, and the proposed National Register of Citizens, raising fears of statelessness. Rising anti-Muslim and anti-Christian violence, including a 400% increase in attacks on Christians since 2014, reflects growing religious intolerance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2024 campaign rhetoric frequently invoked Islamophobic themes, with divisive messaging taking precedence over civic issues. Institutional independence has also weakened, with decisions like the Supreme Court’s Ayodhya verdict and the revocation of Kashmir’s autonomy seen as aligning with majoritarian interests. Recent legislation, such as the Uniform Civil Code proposal and the Waqf (Amendment) Act, further centralizes state control over Muslim religious and legal affairs, exacerbating community marginalization. While the BJP claims to promote national unity and economic growth, its strategies have polarized public discourse and threatened the pluralistic ideals enshrined in the constitution. The future of India’s democracy may hinge on whether secular principles can be restored and upheld against the rise of Hindu nationalism. Molla Mehedi Hasan, East Asia Forum, May 8