Asia Daily: May 8, 2025
China
China’s top negotiator strikes bullish tone on economy ahead of U.S. trade talks. Vice-Premier He Lifeng expressed optimism about China’s economic outlook ahead of the first formal trade talks with the U.S. since President Trump’s return to office. Beijing unveiled stimulus measures, including rate cuts and financial support for key sectors, to offset tariff impacts and strengthen its negotiating stance. Talks aim to ease tensions amid record-high duties imposed by both countries. Xiaofei Xu, South China Morning Post, May 8
China’s Xi Jinping arrives in Moscow hailing historic ties and true friendship. President Xi Jinping began a four-day state visit to Russia, underscoring deepening ties with President Vladimir Putin amid global tensions and ongoing sanctions. Xi emphasized their strategic partnership and shared wartime legacy while pledging stronger economic and geopolitical cooperation. The visit includes bilateral talks, a Red Square parade appearance, and discussions on issues like Ukraine, energy, and BRICS. Laura Zhou, South China Morning Post, May 8
U.S., China to hold ice-breaker trade talks in Geneva on Saturday. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet China’s He Lifeng in Geneva to explore de-escalation in a trade war marked by record-high tariffs. Talks will cover tariff reductions, export controls, and import exemptions. China has introduced monetary stimulus to offset economic strain, signaling openness to compromise. Andrea Shalal, David Lawder and Laurie Chen, Reuters, May 7
Japan
Ishiba faces a fresh money scandal. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has come under scrutiny after reports that he failed to disclose over ¥30 million in political contributions from a supporter, according to Shukan Bunshun. The supporter allegedly purchased fundraising tickets and gave cash donations over more than a decade. Ishiba’s office insists the funds were handled lawfully, but opposition leader Yoshihiko Noda has called for a formal explanation before the political ethics council. The Japan Times, May 8
Ex-PM Kishida and Malaysian leader affirm cooperation. Former Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in Putrajaya to reaffirm bilateral cooperation on decarbonization and energy transition. Kishida, acting as a special envoy for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, also delivered a letter from Ishiba and discussed U.S. tariff policies. The Japan Times, May 7
South Korea
DP candidate Lee widens lead in presidential election poll. Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung expanded his lead in the June 3 presidential race with 43% support, according to the latest National Barometer Survey. Independent candidate Han Duck-soo followed with 23%, while People Power Party’s Kim Moon-soo trailed at 12%. Kim has resisted calls to unify with Han despite internal party pressure. The poll surveyed 1,000 voters and carries a margin of error of ±3.1%. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, May 8
South Korean presidential candidate accuses party of pushing him out. Kim Moon-soo accused the conservative People Power Party of trying to replace him with former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo ahead of the June 3 snap election. Kim, selected through party primaries, rejected pressure to withdraw and proposed a public poll to unify the conservative ticket. Internal discord has distracted from policy issues, while rival Lee Jae-myung maintains a lead in national polls. Ju-Min Park, Reuters, May 8
Court delays Lee’s election law trial until after presidential vote. The Seoul High Court has postponed Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung’s remanded election law trial to June 18, citing the need to ensure equal campaign opportunity and judicial impartiality. The decision came shortly after Lee’s legal team requested a delay under constitutional and election law provisions. The original May 15 date was scrapped to avoid interference with the June 3 presidential election. The Dong-A Ilbo, May 8
North Korea
N. Korea fires multiple short-range ballistic missiles. North Korea launched several short-range ballistic missiles from Wonsan toward the East Sea on May 8, its first such test since March. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff confirmed the launches occurred around 8:10 a.m. and said coordination with the U.S. and Japan is ongoing. The test follows a period of restraint by Pyongyang amid deepening ties with Russia and US-led military drills in the region. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, May 8
N. Korea holds economic talks with Belarus, hopes for 'vibrant' cooperation: KCNA. North Korea hosted Belarusian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Shuleiko in Pyongyang for the third intergovernmental meeting on trade and economic cooperation, the first since 2006. Talks focused on expanding sectoral collaboration and preparing a new bilateral protocol. North Korean Vice Premier Jong Myong-su expressed optimism for “vibrant” exchanges, while Shuleiko pledged to deepen ties. Kim Soo-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, May 8
N. Korea calls for full resource mobilization for rice planting amid unfavorable weather. North Korea has urged nationwide mobilization for spring rice planting, citing adverse weather and the need to meet agricultural goals during the final year of its five-year economic plan. An editorial in Rodong Sinmun called on all citizens, regardless of profession, to contribute labor. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, May 8
Thailand
EC to summon 60 senators over voting collusion charges within 2 weeks. Thailand’s Election Commission will summon about 60 senators over alleged collusion during the June 2024 senatorial election, with cases potentially advancing to the Supreme Court for nullification of results. The investigation, led by EC Deputy Secretary-General Chanin Noilek and supported by the DSI, involves violations of the 2018 Organic Law on Senate elections. The Nation, May 7
Senate to invite PM to explain casino-entertainment complex bill. A special Senate committee reviewing Thailand’s proposed casino-entertainment complex legislation may invite Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra to justify the bill at a future meeting, though no decision has been finalized. The government postponed the bill’s first reading to the July parliamentary session following opposition. The Senate panel will set a 180-day study framework and form sub-committees to assess economic and social impacts. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, May 8
Vietnam
Vietnam, Azerbaijan set up Strategic Partnership. Vietnam and Azerbaijan established a Strategic Partnership during General Secretary To Lam’s visit to Baku, marking a historic upgrade in bilateral ties. The leaders agreed to enhance cooperation in trade, energy, defense, education, and infrastructure. Both sides committed to expanding connectivity, increasing investment, and supporting multilateral coordination. Vietnam News, May 8
Vietnam, U.S. step up negotiations on economic, trade issues. Industry and Trade Minister Nguyen Hong Dien met with U.S. Ambassador Marc Knapper in Hanoi to push forward negotiations on a reciprocal trade agreement. Dien emphasized the need for balanced and sustainable economic ties that respect Vietnam’s international obligations. Knapper praised Vietnam’s engagement, saying the U.S. aims to expand trade while protecting economic security and workers, without disadvantaging its partners. Vietnam News, May 7
Myanmar
Myanmar junta extends quake truce while continuing airstrikes. The Myanmar military extended its ceasefire through May 31 to support earthquake recovery but continued launching airstrikes on resistance areas, killing civilians in Mandalay and bombing villages in Sagaing. Anti-regime groups and the civilian National Unity Government condemned the ongoing attacks, reporting 282 airstrikes since late March that killed 276 people. Critics call the truce a façade for continued military aggression. The Irrawaddy, May 7
Laos
Laos, China partner to establish mineral testing and research centre. Laos and China have signed an agreement to jointly develop a Minerals Testing and Research Centre in Vientiane, aimed at enhancing Laos’ mineral certification capacity and attracting investment. The five-year partnership involves training Lao staff and establishing international-standard testing facilities, including analysis of ultra-pure gold. Souksamai Boulom, Vientiane Times, May 8
Philippines
Duterte loses bid to oust ICC judges. The International Criminal Court has rejected former president Rodrigo Duterte’s request to remove two judges from ruling on jurisdictional matters in his crimes against humanity case. The court ruled the motion procedurally improper under the Rome Statute. The pretrial chamber will proceed to assess whether the ICC has authority to try Duterte. Prosecutors have disclosed 139 evidentiary items, and the confirmation of charges hearing is scheduled for September 23. Franco Jose C. Baroña and Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, May 8
Malaysia
Anwar: ASEAN must unite in medical research to cut costs, warns of ‘excessive profits’ by major companies. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim called for greater ASEAN collaboration in medical research to reduce drug costs and counter the outsized profits of major pharmaceutical firms. Speaking at the CRM Trial Connect 2025 conference, he urged partnerships with regional institutions and local universities to tailor research to Southeast Asia’s needs. Malay Mail, May 8
Malaysian military personnel training in India, Pakistan unaffected by conflict, says Mohamed Khaled. Defence Minister Mohamed Khaled Nordin confirmed that 21 Malaysian Armed Forces personnel training in India and Pakistan are safe and not located in conflict zones. Eighteen are stationed in India and three in Pakistan, with most expected to complete their training by year-end. His remarks followed recent cross-border hostilities between the two nations. Yee Xiang Yun, The Star, May 8
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan and France keen to expand cooperation in energy and critical raw materials. Kazakhstan and France reaffirmed their commitment to deepen ties in nuclear and renewable energy, rare earths, healthcare, and education, following up on agreements from President Tokayev’s 2024 visit to Paris. Both sides also planned upcoming events, including a bilateral forum tied to the Astana International Forum. Zhanna Nurmaganbetova, Kazinform, May 7
Kazakhstan signals early review of oil production sharing agreements. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has called for the early renegotiation of Kazakhstan’s oil production sharing agreements with foreign firms, citing outdated terms and low national profit shares. A $160 billion arbitration dispute with the North Caspian Operating Company has intensified public scrutiny, especially over Kazakhstan’s 2% revenue share from the Kashagan field. Andrei Matveev, The Times of Central Asia, May 7
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan to unveil new air defense systems at military parade. Kyrgyzstan will present Tor-M2KM, Pechora-2BM, and S-300PS missile systems for the first time at its May 8 Victory Day parade in Bishkek, reflecting recent acquisitions funded by the national budget and transfers from Russia. The event will involve over 120 military vehicles and 8,000 personnel, with aerial flyovers by Kyrgyz and Russian aircraft. The inclusion of these systems increases Kyrgyzstan’s ability to counter aircraft, drones, and missiles. Anton Chipegin, The Times of Central Asia, May 7
Northeast Asia
China-Russia Alignment – A Shared Vision, Without Fully Seeing Eye to Eye. Despite increased cooperation since their 2022 “no-limits partnership” declaration, China and Russia maintain distinct geopolitical interests that constrain full alignment. Economic ties have deepened, with bilateral trade reaching USD 245 billion in 2024 and a sharp increase in Chinese exports of dual-use goods to Russia. Political engagement has increased, marked by frequent leader-level exchanges and expanded border infrastructure. However, divergences are evident in diplomatic arenas such as the United Nations, where alignment in voting has declined, particularly on Ukraine-related resolutions, with China increasingly abstaining rather than supporting Russia. These differences show Beijing's cautious strategy to balance its anti-Western stance with adherence to international norms. Chinese officials have publicly reinterpreted the “no-limits” rhetoric to emphasize national interests and global legal frameworks. Despite such distinctions, China continues to view Russia as a vital strategic partner in challenging Western dominance and drawing lessons from Moscow’s navigation of sanctions. The partnership remains useful to both powers as they pursue overlapping yet not identical visions of an alternative global order. Claus Soong, MERICS, May 7
China-Russia Trade: Asymmetrical, Yet Indispensable. The China-Russia trade relationship is structurally imbalanced but strategically essential for both nations. Russia depends heavily on China as a market for its energy exports and a source of industrial goods, especially in light of Western sanctions. China benefits economically from discounted commodities and strategically from maintaining secure supply chains with a politically aligned partner. The trade structure highlights asymmetry—Russia supplies raw materials, while China exports high-value manufactured goods. Fluctuations in global energy prices and Western sanctions enforcement amplify this imbalance. Although Russia seeks to expand exports, growth is constrained by China’s domestic energy strategy and diversification goals. Negotiations over infrastructure projects like the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline have stalled, a reflection of China’s dominant negotiating position. Nevertheless, China remains Moscow’s most vital trade partner, offering economic lifelines and stability amid geopolitical isolation. Trade is also a conduit for Russia to access dual-use technologies critical to its military efforts. Despite the imbalance, both nations view the partnership as mutually beneficial and crucial to their shared ambition of challenging Western global influence. A breakdown in trade relations appears unlikely, barring major political shifts, and even a reduction in sanctions would not significantly alter the fundamental dynamics of the relationship. Filip Rudnik, MERICS, May 7
Joint Military Exercises Signal Deepening Russia-China Strategic Alignment. Russia and China have expanded their military cooperation since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with a sharp increase in joint exercises across land, air, and especially naval domains. Since 2003, the two countries have held over 90 joint drills, nearly a third of which occurred after February 2022. In 2024 alone, they conducted 11 joint exercises, surpassing all previous years, including high-profile operations in geopolitically sensitive areas such as the South China Sea and the Arctic. Cooperation has intensified institutionally as well, encompassing joint development and production of military technologies and coordination in fields like AI, quantum tech, space, and nuclear energy. However, the power dynamic is evolving: China’s military strength is rising, while Russia’s capabilities have weakened due to the war in Ukraine, increasing Moscow’s dependence on Chinese supplies. Simultaneously, China has reduced its reliance on Russian arms, with imports falling despite Russia still accounting for 76 percent of Chinese arms imports in 2023. Key questions going forward include the trajectory of joint exercises, the impact of China’s growing defence capabilities, and how China may leverage its position to extract concessions from Russia, potentially including support in a Taiwan conflict. These developments reflect a strategic alignment aimed at projecting power and deterring Western influence, even as the military imbalance grows in China’s favor. Hugo von Essen, MERICS, May 7
Pursuing Stable Coexistence: A Reorientation of U.S. Policy Toward North Korea. The United States is urged to abandon its rigid focus on North Korea’s denuclearization in favor of a strategy centered on stable coexistence, recognizing that the current path has fueled tensions and nuclear advancement without reducing risks. The report argues that pressure-based tactics have consistently failed to deter North Korea or create diplomatic opportunities, while recent developments such as Pyongyang’s deepening ties with Russia and aggressive nuclear posturing make a diplomatic reset urgent. A move toward sustained engagement, confidence-building, and reduced military hostility could begin with unilateral U.S. steps, such as declaring an end to the Korean War, scaling back military exercises, suspending strategic deployments, and expanding humanitarian cooperation. This approach, while maintaining deterrence, accepts North Korea’s de facto nuclear status and aims to minimize the threat of war through reciprocal measures and engagement. The strategy would also support broader U.S. goals by curbing North Korea’s destabilizing global role and alleviating pressures on U.S. military commitments in Asia. The key to success is sustained alliance coordination, especially with South Korea, and a readiness to offer incremental sanctions relief, reframe nuclear deterrence strategies, and promote people-to-people exchanges. Frank Aum and Ankit Panda, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 7
China’s Beleaguered Work Culture Bends Towards Brussels. China is initiating reforms to its notorious overwork culture under domestic and international pressure, aligning more closely with European labor standards as part of a broader effort to stabilize trade ties and respond to EU regulatory changes. Xi Jinping reaffirmed commitments to reduce excessive workplace competition, backed by new policies like the Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption, which promotes workers’ rights to rest and vacation. These changes respond to the EU’s 2024 forced labour regulation, which prohibits any labor performed under coercion, including excessive hours. Compliance with these standards is vital for Chinese exporters, particularly as EU–China trade reached $785.8 billion in 2024. However, enforcement remains inconsistent across regions, and smaller firms may struggle to adjust without resorting to informal work practices. Adjustments to labor practices are essential for maintaining market access, particularly in high-value sectors like electric vehicles and solar products, which dominate Chinese exports to Europe. Simultaneously, China’s changeup could help revive the frozen Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, despite ongoing political frictions. The recalibration also reflects Beijing’s effort to buffer against U.S. tariffs and consolidate industrial partnerships in Europe amid growing Western protectionism. Hao Nan, East Asia Forum, May 8
A Blueprint for Japan’s Gaza Refugee Program. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans to accept Gazan refugees as students, drawing on the Japan Initiative for the Future of Syrian Refugees (JISR) as a model. Launched in 2016, JISR has supported 144 Syrian students with education and integration in Japan. While Japan has a history of limited refugee intake, recent improvements include new protections and systems for asylum seekers, such as complementary protection status introduced in 2023. Yet refugee recognition rates remain low, with only 303 of 13,823 applications approved in 2023. The proposed Gaza program must overcome the destruction of Gaza’s education infrastructure and include expanded language training, employment support, and social integration to be viable. Japan’s aging population and need for skilled labor make such programs strategically beneficial. Public resistance remains, with most social media posts reacting negatively to the initiative. To succeed, the government must invest in career pathways, industry partnerships, and public communication, framing refugee support as beneficial to national interests. Takuro Kikkawa and Hiroko Shiraishi, East Asia Forum, May 7
Quick Take: Progress on New Rail Spur at Sohae Satellite Launching Station. Satellite imagery from May 2025 reveals continued construction at North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station, with significant progress on a new railway spur intended to support launch infrastructure. Soil is being added to stabilize the rail bed, which leads toward a new assembly building designed to facilitate the transportation of rocket components. Concrete pavers are being installed near the building with allowances made for the railway’s integration, suggesting trains will maneuver via the west tunnel and reverse into the facility. Additionally, excavation near the east tunnel entrance indicates possible plans for a secondary tunnel or access route. Martyn Williams, 38 North, May 7
Quick Take: Buildings Take Shape at New Chinese Crossing. Construction is advancing on what appears to be a customs and immigration center on the North Korean side of the long-unused New Yalu River Bridge, signaling movement toward opening a new international trade crossing with China. Satellite imagery from May 2025 shows building foundations emerging at the site, which had been dormant since initial work began in 2020 and then halted. Activity resumed in March 2025 with the appearance of construction huts and structural work. On the Chinese side, additional inspection facilities have been added, suggesting coordination between the two nations. Despite this progress, no formal opening date for the crossing has been announced. The bridge, significantly larger than the existing Sino-Korean Friendship Bridge, has the potential to greatly expand trade capacity between the two countries. Martyn Williams, 38 North, May 7
Breaking Beijing’s Script. Following a deadly boat capsizing incident in Guizhou on May 4 that killed 10 and injured dozens, Chinese central and provincial authorities maintained strict narrative control through state media. Official coverage, dominated by Xinhua News Agency, focused on top-down directives from Xi Jinping and excluded independent investigation or human-focused reporting. Local and national media repeated the official releases verbatim, minimizing discussion of possible negligence, such as the failure to act on an orange weather alert issued before the tragedy. This reflects the longstanding strategy of "public opinion channeling" introduced in 2008, whereby local and commercial media are sidelined while central authorities control breaking news narratives. Yet cracks in this uniformity emerged with the Shanghai Observer publishing a rare, nuanced account based on survivor testimony and pointing to ignored warnings. Online commentators also challenged the official narrative, showing that despite increasing technological control, the Party's narrative discipline faces limits. These voices stress the importance of investigative journalism to uncover safety failures that official messaging seeks to suppress. Dalia Parete, China Media Project, May 7
Southeast Asia
Is the United States Really Planning a Proxy War in Myanmar? Claims circulating in South Asia suggest the United States is orchestrating a proxy war in Myanmar to dismantle the country’s military regime and block China’s access to the Indian Ocean. These reports allege U.S. coordination with Bangladesh, involvement of insurgent groups like the Arakan Army, and the establishment of arms supply bases, drone operations, and even no-fly zones. The narrative includes purported deployments of Western mercenaries and the goal of establishing buffer states near Chinese economic corridors. However, no verifiable evidence supports these allegations. Key actors named in these reports have not confirmed involvement, and the purported activities defy logical strategic reasoning given the immense military and political risks. Myanmar’s history of attracting conspiratorial narratives, coupled with the lack of reliable information and sensationalism by certain outlets, has fueled misinformation. In reality, Western involvement in Myanmar since the 2021 coup has remained limited to diplomatic backing and non-lethal humanitarian aid. The alleged covert operations, arms supplies, or military campaigns lack substantiation and appear to be speculative or fabricated exaggerations. Andrew Selth, Lowy Institute, May 7
ASEAN Faces a Tougher Balancing Act in US and China Trade Relations. The Trump administration’s return has intensified trade pressures on ASEAN, complicating the bloc’s balancing act between the United States and China. Amid stalled trade negotiations and a 90-day tariff pause, Washington is targeting Southeast Asian nations accused of enabling Chinese goods to bypass tariffs, exemplified by proposed anti-dumping duties on solar panels from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Simultaneously, China is deepening ties through high-profile visits and numerous memoranda of understanding, while cautioning against closer US alignments that might restrict trade with Beijing. In response, ASEAN members are implementing tighter export-origin controls, such as Vietnam’s directive on import monitoring and Malaysia’s restrictions on certificates of origin, to avoid becoming collateral in the escalating trade rivalry. While countries with high-value exports like Malaysia’s semiconductors retain some leverage, less diversified economies like Cambodia and Laos are more vulnerable. ASEAN is pursuing a dual strategy: engaging bilaterally with Washington to resolve specific issues and collectively emphasizing non-retaliation and openness through regional frameworks like TIFA. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of this approach remains uncertain given the unpredictable US stance. The broader context reflects Southeast Asia’s increasingly limited strategic room as it navigates a disruptive geopolitical landscape defined by competing superpower interests. Kristina Fong Siew Leng, FULCRUM, May 8
Fear of Military Interference in Politics Runs Deep in Indonesia. Ongoing protests and political commentary in Indonesia reflect widespread unease over a perceived resurgence of military influence, especially among civil society, academics, and students. These concerns stem from the New Order era (1965–1998), when the Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) held formal political power under the dual-function (dwifungsi) doctrine. Although that role was officially renounced after Suharto’s fall, impunity for past abuses and the return of key military figures to power continue to stoke public anxiety. The election of Prabowo Subianto—linked to human rights violations in the 1990s—as president in 2024 has reignited fears, particularly given his history with the now-defunct ‘Rose Team’ accused of abductions and torture. Recent revisions to the TNI law, expanding military roles in civilian sectors, and passed through closed parliamentary sessions, have further fueled suspicion. Demonstrations increased after reports of TNI officers appearing on university campuses to monitor or question protest organizers, despite denials of political intent by the government. The sentiment encapsulated in the “Indonesia Gelap” (Dark Indonesia) movement shows how deeply rooted distrust of the military remains, suggesting that without accountability for past abuses, fears of a political comeback will persist. Max Lane, FULCRUM, May 7
Will Malaysia Gravitate Further Towards China After President Xi’s Visit? President Xi Jinping’s April visit to Malaysia marked a deepening of bilateral relations, characterized by the signing of 31 new MoUs, agreements, and notes of cooperation spanning infrastructure, digital technology, logistics, and education. These follow a series of similar commitments from previous high-level engagements, indicating a consistent trajectory toward tighter integration. Notable agreements include an extension of reciprocal visa exemptions, plans to expand rail and air connectivity, and the launch of collaborative research initiatives in AI, blockchain, and renewable energy. The establishment of joint AI laboratories and a mutually recognized digital ID system further cements digital cooperation. Increased logistics via a “twin hub” model between Kuala Lumpur and Zhengzhou will strengthen supply chains in electronics. The warm reception of Chinese involvement in Malaysia’s 5G infrastructure, satellite technology, and industrial parks reinforces China’s growing footprint. These developments align with Malaysia’s strategic positioning in the supply chain bifurcation stemming from the US-China trade and tech rivalry. While Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has emphasized neutrality, the breadth of economic and technological cooperation with China signals a tilt that will be increasingly difficult to balance, especially as US trade barriers tighten. Cassey Lee, FULCRUM, May 7