Asia Daily: May 8, 2024
News
Xi Jinping hails ‘new chapter’ for China’s relations with Serbia as Belgrade backs his global vision. During his European tour, Chinese President Xi Jinping celebrated the strengthening ties with Serbia, emphasizing a shared commitment to deepening their comprehensive strategic partnership. The leaders signed agreements boosting cooperation in various sectors, including economic relations and infrastructure. Xi's visit marks a significant step in Serbia aligning with China’s vision for global governance and mutual respect. Alyssa Chen and Orange Wang, South China Morning Post, May 8
Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s Serbia trip ‘timed to increase tensions’ with West, US envoy says. US envoy Gabriel Escobar criticized the timing of Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Serbia, aligning it with the 25th anniversary of the NATO bombing of China's embassy in Belgrade. The visit, deemed to exacerbate tensions with the West, coincided with Xi affirming strong ties and mutual support with Serbia, amid broader geopolitical gestures that challenge the Euro-Atlantic community's unity. Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, May 8
We are pro-Singapore: DPM Lawrence Wong on standing between the US and China. Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, in a May 6 interview with The Economist, emphasized Singapore's neutral stance in the evolving US-China dynamics, stating that the Republic is neither pro-China nor pro-America, but "pro-Singapore." The deputy prime minister underscored Singapore's adherence to the 'one China' policy amidst global shifts and stressed the importance of maintaining a rules-based multilateral order. Lim Yan Liang, The Straits Times, May 8
Filipinos want military action to resolve sea row. A recent OCTA Research survey reveals that 73% of Filipinos favor a strategy combining military action and diplomacy to address the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) disputes. The majority support increasing naval patrols and boosting troop presence, indicating a preference for more assertive responses compared to diplomatic negotiations alone. This shift reflects a strong public sentiment towards the modernization of the military and the reinforcement of the Philippines' territorial defenses. Red Mendoza, The Manila Times, May 8
Partnership upgrade shows Việt Nam-Australia long-term commitments: Official. Vietnamese Ambassador to Australia Phạm Hùng Tâm met with Australian Assistant Minister for Foreign Affairs Tim Watts to discuss the upgraded Việt Nam-Australia comprehensive strategic partnership. The upgrade reflects mutual strategic trust and long-term commitment, enhancing cooperation in trade, education, and healthcare. Watts emphasized dealing with common challenges and managing maritime spaces under international law. Ambassador Tâm proposed an action plan for 2024-2028 to further boost bilateral relations. Vietnam News, May 8
More high-level position changes in bid to improve governance. The Lao People’s Revolutionary Party has initiated further high-level administrative changes, appointing new acting provincial governors and ministers to enhance governance. Notably, Mr. Alounxay Sounnalath has replaced Dr. Vilayvong Bouddakham as the Acting Governor of Champassak. This reshuffle is part of ongoing adjustments across various government sectors aimed at aligning leadership roles with the specific skills of officials and the evolving requirements of their positions. Times Reporters, Vientiane Times, May 9
Calls for increased US-Cambodia cooperation, exchanges. Analysts emphasize the need for enhanced US-Cambodia relations through high-level exchanges and dialogues. Prime Minister Hun Manet and US ambassador W. Patrick Murphy discussed bolstering ties, focusing on sectors like education, health, and investment during their recent meeting. Analysts suggest such engagements can help overcome challenges like mistrust and promote mutual understanding and respect. Ry Sochan, The Phnom Penh Post, May 8
Albanese rejects China’s argument that Australia was at fault in dangerous aircraft encounter. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese dismissed claims that an Australian navy helicopter was at fault during a confrontation with a Chinese fighter jet over the Yellow Sea. The incident, involving flares dropped by the Chinese jet, prompted both nations to issue protests. Albanese affirmed the helicopter was in international airspace, upholding international law while enforcing U.N. sanctions against North Korea. Rod McGuirk, AP News, May 8
BOJ chief flags risk of weak yen swaying prices, hints at rate hike. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that the yen's depreciation could further influence inflation and hinted at a potential early interest rate hike if necessary. During a recent speech, Ueda highlighted the impact of the weak yen on increasing import costs and its potential to disrupt economic stability. He underscored the BOJ's readiness to adjust policy proactively in response to these challenges to maintain financial stability. Kyodo News, May 8
Central Asian leaders gather in Moscow for economic meeting, WWII anniversary. Central Asian leaders convened in Moscow for a strategic economic meeting and the 79th WWII victory anniversary. Hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the gathering aimed to strengthen regional trade relationships amidst ongoing Western sanctions. Leaders from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan participated, highlighting enduring ties despite geopolitical shifts. Times of Central Asia, The Times of Central Asia, May 8
Rakhine ethnic armed organisation closer to taking control of Myanmar-Bangladesh border. The Arakan Army has made significant military advances and is nearing full control over key towns along the Myanmar-Bangladesh border, specifically Maungdaw and Buthidaung. These strategic locations in northern Rakhine State are critical for controlling border access and influencing regional stability. This development marks a significant shift in control, impacting both Myanmar’s internal dynamics and its relations with neighboring Bangladesh. Raung Ni, Myanmar Now, May 8
N. Korean leader congratulates Putin on inauguration. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un congratulated Russian President Vladimir Putin on starting his fifth term, amid increasing military cooperation between the two nations. Kim's message, delivered via the Russian Embassy in Pyongyang, expressed wishes for Putin's success. This correspondence aligns with deepening DPRK-Russia ties, particularly after their recent summit which spurred discussions on arms transfers and strategic alignments. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, May 8
US weighs upgrade for Vietnam to 'market economy' status. The US is considering reclassifying Vietnam as a "market economy," which would ease anti-dumping duties on its imports. Advocates, including former US Ambassador Ted Osius, argue Vietnam meets necessary economic criteria. Opponents, citing labor and land ownership issues, fear it could undermine US manufacturing and aid Chinese firms in circumventing tariffs. A decision is expected by late July, amidst broader US efforts to strengthen ties with Vietnam as a strategic counter to China. David Lawder and David Brunnstrom, Reuters, May 8
Consultative meeting held between the foreign ministries of Mongolia and Uzbekistan. The sixth consultative meeting between the foreign ministries of Mongolia and Uzbekistan took place in Ulaanbaatar, co-chaired by deputy foreign ministers from both nations. They discussed enhancing bilateral ties, focusing on sectors like infrastructure and agriculture, and preparing for upcoming high-level visits. The meeting also covered potential cooperation in various strategic areas, reflecting both countries' interests in strengthening their partnership. Самбууням.М, Montsame, May 8
Long Form
AUKUS Faces Mounting Challenges. Australia Must Address Them. Canberra faces numerous hurdles in maintaining political unity, engaging the public, and strategizing effectively under the AUKUS defense agreement. The initiative, linking Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, involves substantial commitments, including a major plan to develop Australian nuclear-powered submarine capabilities. With a projected expense of A$368 billion over several decades, the success of AUKUS is crucial for Australia to navigate its primarily maritime strategic environment effectively. The agreement's challenges include ensuring cohesive political support, crafting compelling public messages, and making astute strategic decisions that incorporate feasible alternatives. Nishank Motwani, The Diplomat, May 8
Europe faces up to China's EV dominance as carbon-zero targets loom. As Europe aims to ban combustion engines by 2035, it finds itself increasingly reliant on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). During Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent tour across Europe, discussions focused on trade relations and potential collaborations with Chinese automakers like Envision Group, SAIC Motor, and Xpeng Motors. These talks occur amidst a backdrop of Europe's stringent carbon neutrality goals and the competitive pricing of Chinese EVs, which challenge local manufacturers. The visit was a crucial juncture for European automakers, who must decide whether to compete with or partner with Chinese firms to meet environmental targets. Mailys Pene-Lassus, Rhyannon Bartlett-Imadegawa and Kyra Jaeger, Nikkei Asia, May 8
Phantom forces at work in China's bull market rally. China's stock market appears to be in a bullish phase, with the MSCI China Index rising 25.2% from its low. However, the surge is met with skepticism due to past market crashes and ongoing economic challenges. Beijing is under pressure to prove its economic stability, particularly in the real estate sector, which remains precarious despite recent government initiatives. The current market rally may be driven by short-term governmental interventions rather than fundamental economic improvements, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth. William Pesek, Nikkei Asia, May 8
New Japanese demands could be key to getting North Korea to talk. Japan's approach to re-engaging North Korea involves new demands that might open dialogue avenues beyond the well-trodden abduction issue. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is considering leveraging the "Paradise on Earth" program—a historical initiative that led thousands from Japan to North Korea under false promises—as a new bargaining chip. This could not only enhance diplomatic engagement but also spotlight human rights abuses, aligning with broader international efforts to address injustices in North Korea. As Japan positions itself uniquely among U.S. and South Korean allies, these new demands could facilitate a breakthrough in relations with North Korea. Jiwon Kim, Nikkei Asia, May 8
South Korea hopes for a rock-solid critical minerals partnership with Mongolia. South Korea aims to diversify its critical minerals supply chain through a new partnership with Mongolia, a move driven by Seoul's increasing vulnerability due to its heavy reliance on China for rare earth metals. Official development assistance (ODA) is being provided by South Korea to enhance Mongolia's mining capabilities, fostering a relationship that not only helps Seoul secure essential materials for its high-tech industries but also aids Mongolia in developing its economy beyond just resource extraction. This strategy is part of a broader effort to reduce geopolitical risks associated with critical material supplies, while simultaneously aiming to maintain good relations with China. Anthony V Rinna, East Asia Forum, May 8
India’s regional challenges. India's efforts to maintain influence in South Asia are challenged by both internal policy decisions and external geopolitical factors. Historically, India's strategies have ranged from cooperative treaties to military interventions, a blend of realism and idealism aimed at securing its regional dominance. However, contemporary issues, such as the increasing influence of China, have complicated these relationships. Recent Indian policies under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, like the 'Neighbourhood First' initiative, have sought to improve ties through economic and cultural links, yet suspicions about India's intentions persist among its neighbors. This shows the delicate balance New Delhi must maintain to navigate its regional aspirations amidst rising challenges and competition, especially from Beijing. Amit Ranjan, East Asia Forum, May 8
Asean must calm South China Sea waters or risk ‘Asia’s Ukraine’. The South China Sea is teetering on the brink of becoming a geopolitical hotspot akin to Ukraine, driven by rising tensions and the involvement of external powers. ASEAN's role in maintaining regional stability is increasingly critical as the Philippines seeks support from allies beyond Southeast Asia to counteract Chinese dominance in the area. This shift towards aligning with countries like the US and Japan risks ASEAN's central position and could escalate conflicts into open warfare, making the region a battleground for global powers. ASEAN must prioritize de-escalation and enforce a cooperative approach to safeguard its collective interests and prevent the South China Sea from spiraling into a conflict zone. Peter T.C. Chang, South China Morning Post, May 8
What a second Trump term could mean for Southeast Asia. The potential reelection of Donald Trump could alter Southeast Asia's geopolitical landscape, compelling nations in the region to abandon their current strategy of balancing between the U.S. and China. Trump’s administration might intensify the regional dynamics, forcing Southeast Asian countries to pick sides more definitively, given his aggressive policies toward China and economic nationalism. This approach could undermine the delicate balance that countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia have maintained, potentially leading to increased regional tensions and reduced autonomy in navigating their foreign policies. Joshua Kurlantzick, The Japan Times, May 8