Asia Daily: May 7, 2024
News
India votes in third phase of national elections as Modi escalates his rhetoric against Muslims. During India's ongoing national elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has intensified divisive rhetoric targeting the Muslim minority, accusing them and the opposition Indian National Congress of conspiracies against Hindus. The rhetoric coincides with key election phases in states like Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh, as Modi shifts his campaign focus from economic progress to Hindu nationalism. Modi's strategy includes claims that could potentially increase religious tensions in India. Krutika Pathi and Sheikh Saaliq, AP News, May 7
China property: Shenzhen, Wuhan are the latest cities to ease housing market restrictions to stir demand. Shenzhen and Wuhan have eased housing market restrictions to stimulate sales and support the slumping property sector. These changes include lowering the income tax and social insurance payment thresholds for buyers in Shenzhen and offering mortgage rate reductions and subsidies in Wuhan. These measures are part of broader efforts by major Chinese cities to revive the real estate market following central government directives. Yuke Xie, South China Morning Post, May 7
Hun Sen requests video meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi. Cambodian leader Hun Sen has officially requested a video meeting with Myanmar's detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi through mediation with Myanmar's military authority. This request underscores Hun Sen's initiative to engage diplomatically with Myanmar to facilitate peace talks amidst ongoing political turmoil. This diplomatic effort highlights ASEAN's continued involvement in seeking resolution and stability in the region. Ry Sochan, Phnom Penh Post, May 7
Australian PM Albanese says China military air incident unacceptable. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese criticized a recent incident where a Chinese fighter jet endangered an Australian military helicopter over the Yellow Sea. This confrontation occurred during a mission enforcing U.N. sanctions on North Korea. Albanese highlighted the unacceptable risk posed to Australian forces operating in international airspace and waters, stressing the need for China to address and explain the incident. Kirsty Needham, Reuters, May 7
N. Korean minister says Pyongyang ready to cooperate with Iranian carmaker Saipa. Yun Jong-ho, North Korea's External Economic Relations Minister, stated during a Tehran trade show that North Korea is prepared to collaborate with Iran's Saipa Automotive Group in the automotive sector. This potential cooperation aligns with favorable political ties between the two nations. Despite North Korea's current focus on military vehicle production, this partnership could signal a new direction in its economic activities, though it may face complications from international sanctions. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, May 7
Germany sends two warships to Indo-Pacific amid China and Taiwan tensions. In a significant military move, Germany dispatched two warships, the supply ship Frankfurt am Main and the frigate Baden-Wuerttemberg, to the Indo-Pacific to address rising tensions between China and Taiwan, and issues in the South China Sea. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius articulated the move as essential for maintaining freedom of navigation and upholding the international rules-based order, given that 40% of Europe's foreign trade traverses the South China Sea. The journey includes a rendezvous at sea, with potential plans to navigate the Taiwan Strait. Sabine Siebold, Reuters, May 7
Citizens of Turkmenistan being prevented from flying abroad. Turkmenistan authorities are increasingly preventing citizens from traveling abroad, with incidents of passengers being removed from flights just before departure. Those affected are reportedly often questioned and coerced into promising not to criticize the government. The restrictions include long delays in issuing biometric passports and bureaucratic obstacles for visa and ticket acquisition. These travel bans have been reported without official comment from migration authorities. The Times of Central Asia, May 6
No Cabinet-level official in Marcos govt agreed to Chinese proposal in WPS—DFA. The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs has stated that no cabinet-level official in President Marcos' administration has agreed to any Chinese proposals regarding the Ayungin Shoal in the West Philippine Sea. This statement contradicts claims from the Chinese Embassy in Manila, which alleged that Philippine military officials had consented to a "new model" of arrangement during discussions, purportedly documented in "records" or "minutes." The authority for such international agreements belongs exclusively to the President. Bernadette E. Tamayo, The Manila Times, May 7
Japan completes 5th round of Fukushima treated water discharge. Japan has finished the fifth release of treated radioactive water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, discharging about 7,800 tons in this round and planning around 54,600 tons for the entire year. This procedure is part of ongoing efforts to manage the aftermath of the 2011 nuclear disaster, with all released water treated to remove radionuclides except tritium, which remains below international safety limits. Kyodo News, May 7
Kazakhstan offers to host platform for Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Kazakhstan is actively proposing to mediate talks between Russia and Ukraine, reflecting its diplomatic strategy to enhance regional stability. The country's ambassador to Russia highlighted Kazakhstan’s readiness to provide a neutral setting for these crucial discussions, emphasizing its ongoing engagement in resolving international conflicts. This initiative aligns with Kazakhstan’s broader goal of serving as a key diplomatic hub in Eurasia. The Times of Central Asia, May 6
War inches closer to Pyin Oo Lwin, a military haven. The town of Pyin Oo Lwin, significant for its military establishments and historical value as a colonial retreat, is now close to the escalating conflicts in Myanmar. The region, pivotal for its military academies and training facilities, is witnessing a marked increase in military activity as nationwide tensions grow following the recent political upheavals. This development raises concerns about the security and stability of a key strategic location within the country. Myanmar Now, May 7
Foreign minister comfy with Thaksin's intervention in Myanmar. Thailand's Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa supports former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's independent mediation efforts in Myanmar, emphasizing that while Thaksin's actions are personal, they align with Thailand’s broader interest in stabilizing Myanmar. This stance is due to the potential regional implications of Myanmar's ongoing conflicts. Thaksin has been engaging with Myanmar's resistance groups to foster dialogue and peace, actions that Thailand views as beneficial to regional security. Wassana Nanuam, Bangkok Post, May 7
Điện Biên Phủ victory opens new stage for revolution of Việt Nam, Laos, Cambodia: Lao official. Lao Minister Boviengkham Vongdara highlighted the Điện Biên Phủ Victory as pivotal for the revolutionary paths of Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. The victory not only facilitated national independence movements but also fostered deeper military collaborations among these nations. Celebrating the 70th anniversary, Vongdara reflected on the enduring significance of the victory in strengthening regional alliances and ongoing cooperative efforts. Vietnam News, May 7
Japan, Germany may hold 1st joint land force exercise next year. Japan and Germany are planning their first joint land force exercise, likely to occur next year, aimed at strengthening military ties amidst China's assertive stance in the Indo-Pacific. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius highlighted this as part of efforts to support the rules-based international order, with concerns over China's territorial claims in the region. This move follows the recent defense pact between the two nations, enhancing their strategic cooperation. Kyodo News, May 6
Probe finds power abuse allegations against ambassador to China not serious enough for disciplinary action. South Korea's Foreign Ministry concluded that allegations of power abuse against Ambassador Chung Jae-ho were not severe enough to merit disciplinary action. The internal probe found that Chung's remarks to embassy staff were inappropriate but did not justify penalties. The inquiry also dismissed concerns over potential graft law violations related to embassy event expenses, deciding only to issue a verbal notice to Chung for caution. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, May 7
Long Form
The Historic Fixing of Central Asia’s Unfixable Borders Problem. Central Asia is witnessing a significant shift in border politics, with countries like Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan making headway in resolving their long-standing border disputes. Recent diplomatic efforts have led to formal agreements that delineate borders more clearly, aiming to reduce regional tensions and foster economic cooperation. These agreements have facilitated trade and mobility, suggesting a future where these newly demarcated borders might enhance rather than hinder regional interactions. The ongoing dialogue is a move towards greater stability and economic integration in Central Asia, marking a departure from decades of contention and mistrust. Peter Leonard,
, May 7Will India’s Hindi Heartland Propel Modi to Power Once More? The Hindi heartland, historically a bastion of Hindu nationalism, has consistently supported Narendra Modi. However, in this year's elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears uncertain of its continued dominance. At a rally in Forbesganj, Bihar, amidst the intense heat, thousands came to hear Modi, signaling a crucial phase in the ongoing seven-part national elections scheduled for May 7. The BJP's strategy involves leveraging Modi's image alongside Hindu nationalist symbols to galvanize support, although the region's unwavering backing amidst political challenges remains to be seen. Snigdhendu Bhattacharya, The Diplomat, May 7
Politburo Proposals Spark Optimism in China’s Troubled Property Market. Recent strategies from Beijing aimed at revitalizing the stagnant property sector have sparked optimism, despite existing challenges. A key Politburo meeting unveiled plans to alleviate housing oversupply by encouraging local authorities to transform unsold units into social housing. This policy might include a "trade-in" scheme allowing residents to swap older homes for vouchers toward new ones. These moves, paired with the anticipated fiscal and tax reforms at the upcoming Third Plenum, have led to a surge in developer shares, pushing the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index to a significant yearly high. Lizzi C. Lee, The Diplomat, May 7
Uzbek Farmers Battle to Save Cotton, Wheat Crops from Mortal Enemy: Salt. Uzbekistan's agricultural sector faces a critical threat from increasing soil salinity, which is drastically reducing the arable land for cotton and wheat production. Decades of inadequate irrigation practices and salt accumulation have led to severe salinization, impacting the livelihoods of many farmers. Diyor Juraev, a local farmer and deputy director at the Southern Agricultural Research Institute, highlighted that salinity could reduce harvest levels by 15% to 20%. Despite government policies aiming to combat this issue, the lack of direct support and training for farmers means many are struggling to adapt to the worsening conditions. This crisis not only affects local economies but also international markets, as evidenced by a significant drop in cotton exports to Bangladesh. Rachel Parsons, Nikkei Asia, May 7
New Singapore PM Wong Will Bring in a Greater Degree of Openness. Lawrence Wong, the incoming Prime Minister of Singapore, is set to bring a fresh approach characterized by a greater openness to criticism and dialogue, a shift from the past administration's more defensive stance. As a conservative leader, Wong's policies are anticipated to maintain a balance between traditional values and the need for progressive governance, especially in the context of Singapore's post-economic stagnation recovery and evolving societal norms. Donald Low, Nikkei Asia, May 7
India Moves from Straddling Fences to Standing Tall. India is redefining its foreign policy with a proactive stance, aligning with like-minded nations to foster a free and open Indo-Pacific. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, expected to secure a third term, India is targeting major goals: becoming the third largest economy by 2030, establishing strong deterrence capabilities, and leading the Global South using a blend of hard and soft power. India's involvement in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and strengthening ties with ASEAN, the Middle East, and Europe further accentuate its rising global influence. Despite maintaining a nominal partnership with Russia, India is decreasing its reliance on Russian defense and energy, showing its strategic autonomy and growing alignment with Western nations. Kaush Arha, East Asia Forum, May 7
Revitalising US Innovation Through Immigration Policy Reform. The U.S. needs to revise its immigration policy to maintain technological leadership by attracting top international scientists, especially from China. Current restrictions on Chinese researchers may undermine the U.S. innovation landscape by driving these talents to more welcoming countries. A balanced approach to national security that supports high-skilled immigration is crucial for sustaining American innovation and economic competitiveness. Philip Hou, East Asia Forum, May 7
Why Chinese Green Tech Firms Can Be Transformative for the Global South. Chinese green tech firms are expanding globally, particularly into the Global South, potentially transforming these regions through significant economic and infrastructural development. This shift towards establishing manufacturing hubs in countries with free trade agreements like Mexico and Morocco aligns with strategic geopolitical interests and fosters a transition to a green economy. By setting up operations abroad, these companies not only navigate trade barriers but also contribute to local economies, enhancing their global production capacity and sustainability efforts along the way. Winston Mok, South China Morning Post, May 7
Unlike 10 Years Ago, Japan's New Security Bill Sparks Little Debate. Japan's latest economic security legislation, expanding background checks to private citizens, has encountered minimal opposition, reflecting a significant shift in national security awareness. This new "security-clearance" bill aims to protect classified economic information and enhance Japan's global reliability in security capabilities. Despite concerns over privacy and constitutional rights, major political parties have shown subdued resistance, focusing instead on the economic implications of the bill. The absence of widespread public debate or media coverage contrasts sharply with the reactions to similar legislation a decade ago, indicating a changing perspective on Japan's security policies amid evolving geopolitical tensions. Gabriele Ninivaggi, The Japan Times, May 7
All Investor Eyes on Xi in Europe. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to France, Serbia, and Hungary is crucial amidst trade tensions with the European Union, focusing global investor attention. His tour could influence EU-China trade relations significantly, affecting global markets and investor strategies. Investors anticipate potential easing of trade barriers or further disputes, which could impact market stability and investment risk. This visit also highlights China's strategic interests in Europe, possibly affecting Belt and Road Initiative projects and broader geopolitical dynamics. Nigel Green, Asia Times, May 7