Asia Daily: May 5, 2025
China
China’s Xi Jinping to pay official visit to Russia, alongside Victory Day celebrations. Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Russia from May 7–10 at the invitation of President Vladimir Putin, coinciding with the Victory Day Parade in Moscow. The leaders will discuss strategic cooperation and sign bilateral agreements amid deepening ties shaped by Western sanctions and the Ukraine conflict. This marks Xi’s third visit since Russia invaded Ukraine. Associated Press, May 5
Xi urges youth to contribute to Chinese modernization. President Xi Jinping called on young Chinese to serve in the country’s modernization effort by working where they are most needed, particularly in remote and rural areas. In a letter to volunteer teachers in Xinjiang’s Karajol Township, Xi praised their role in advancing education, ethnic unity, and border stability. Marking Youth Day, he urged youth to uphold their ideals, deepen patriotism, and develop skills to support national development. Xinhua, May 3
China, Gabon pledge to advance cooperation. China and Gabon committed to strengthening their comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership during a meeting between Gabonese President Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema and Xi Jinping’s special envoy Mu Hong in Libreville. Mu conveyed Xi’s greetings and expressed China’s intent to deepen mutual trust and expand practical collaboration. Nguema reaffirmed Gabon’s support for the one-China principle and its aim to enhance bilateral ties across multiple sectors. Xinhua, May 4
Japan
Japan and China trade accusations of airspace violation near disputed islands. Japan and China exchanged diplomatic protests after a Chinese coast guard helicopter entered Japanese airspace near the disputed Senkaku Islands, prompting Japan to scramble fighter jets. Tokyo condemned the 15-minute incursion as a territorial violation, while Beijing countered that a Japanese civilian aircraft had infringed on its sovereignty. Mari Yamaguchi and Huizhong Wu, Associated Press, May 5
Japan's child population falls for 44th straight year to new record. Japan’s child population dropped to 13.66 million as of April 1, marking the 44th consecutive annual decline and setting a new record low. Children now make up just 11.1% of the population, the second-lowest ratio among 37 nations with over 40 million people, behind South Korea. Government efforts including expanded childcare support and flexible work policies have failed to reverse the trend. Kyodo News, May 5
Tariff talks with U.S. seen influencing Japan's Upper House election. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces mounting pressure as ongoing Japan–U.S. tariff negotiations under the Trump administration loom large over the upcoming Upper House election. Analysts say the outcome of the talks could significantly shape voter sentiment and determine the stability of Ishiba’s leadership. The issue has emerged as one of the most decisive political challenges for the government heading into the summer vote. The Japan Times, May 5
South Korea
DP presidential candidate Lee leads in 3-way race against PPP, minor party candidates: poll. Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung led a three-way presidential race with 46.6%, ahead of People Power Party nominee Kim Moon-soo at 27.8% and New Reform Party’s Lee Jun-seok at 7.5%, according to a Realmeter poll conducted before Kim’s nomination. A second scenario showed Lee leading former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo by 12.2 points. The election is set for June 3. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, May 5
S. Korea, U.S. agree to further cooperate to achieve shared security goals for Korean Peninsula, Indo-Pacific. South Korea and the United States agreed to deepen defense cooperation during the Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue held May 1–2 in Washington. The talks, the first under President Trump’s new term, focused on strengthening the alliance and aligning regional security strategies. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, May 3
Ex-PM Han proposes meeting with PPP presidential candidate Kim Monday. Former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo proposed a meeting with People Power Party presidential nominee Kim Moon-soo on Monday, amid speculation over a possible conservative unity bid ahead of the June 3 election. The proposal followed a brief encounter at a Buddha’s Birthday ceremony in Seoul, where Kim reportedly accepted. Han’s camp indicated it would defer to the PPP on the terms of any potential candidacy unification. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, May 5
North Korea
N. Korea pushes ahead with final phase of Pyongyang housing project. North Korea is accelerating efforts to complete the final phase of a five-year initiative to build 50,000 homes in Pyongyang by year’s end. Structural work on 10,000 units in Hwasong is underway, with military units and social security officials contributing to construction efficiency. The project, launched in 2021 by Kim Jong-un, has already delivered 40,000 homes in Songhwa and Hwasong through prior phases. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, May 5
N. Korea’s Kim inspects tank factory, emphasizes tank modernization. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visited a tank factory to review production progress and pushed for rapid modernization of the country’s armored forces. He stressed replacing outdated equipment with advanced tanks and self-propelled guns, calling it critical for military development. Kim praised the upgraded structural design and firepower systems of new models, and instructed efforts to expand production capacity and refine core tank technologies. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, May 4
Thailand
PM invites parties to discuss casino bill. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra plans to convene coalition partners before July’s parliamentary session to advance the controversial casino-entertainment complex bill. Tourism Minister Sorawong Thienthong said public feedback has been largely positive, with proponents arguing the project would attract investment and global events. The bill, which allocates only 10% of space to casinos, was postponed after resistance to its fast-track reading in April. Chairith Yonpiam, Bangkok Post, May 4
PM slams critics of casinos. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra accused political opponents of misrepresenting the government’s proposed casino-entertainment complex to stir public confusion. Speaking on national television, she defended the project as a privately funded development modeled on international standards, including strict entry controls and regulatory safeguards. Chairith Yonpiam, Bangkok Post, May 4
Vietnam
15th National Assembly convenes 9th session, focus on Constitution amendments, admin units restructuring. Vietnam’s 15th National Assembly opened its 9th session in Hanoi on May 6, with discussions focused on constitutional amendments and administrative unit restructuring. The session will proceed in two phases through late June. Lawmakers are expected to address issues including revisions to streamline the government apparatus, improve decentralization, and support local development. Vietnam News, May 5
Myanmar
Myanmar junta will weaponize nuclear power, warns UN envoy. Myanmar’s UN ambassador U Kyaw Moe Tun warned that the military regime intends to misuse nuclear technology for military purposes under the pretext of peaceful development. Speaking at a non-proliferation meeting, he said the junta’s deal with Russia’s Rosatom to build a reactor in Naypyitaw poses serious risks, especially as the regime has refused cooperation with international nuclear oversight. The Irrawaddy, May 3
Myanmar junta bombs TNLA territory after peace talks fail. The Myanmar military launched airstrikes on Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) positions in northern Shan State and Mandalay Region following the breakdown of Chinese-brokered peace talks. The junta targeted civilian areas, killing one and injuring another in Mogoke, after TNLA refused to retreat from five towns it controls. Despite a Brotherhood Alliance ceasefire for earthquake relief, the regime escalated attacks. The Irrawaddy, May 3
Cambodia
PM urges journos to highlight shortcomings of govt officials. Prime Minister Hun Manet called on Cambodian journalists to report critically on government shortcomings and combat fake news, particularly misinformation from opposition figures. The Information Ministry is updating laws and implementing tools to verify news sources, including a new QR code system, amid growing media sector reforms. Torn Vibol, Khmer Times, May 5
Cambodia, Thailand agree on troop pullback at disputed temple. Cambodian and Thai defense ministers reached an agreement to withdraw troops from the contested Ta Moan Thom temple site during a General Border Committee meeting in Bangkok. The move, aimed at reducing tensions following a February altercation, also included renewed commitments to joint border security, anti-cybercrime operations, and demining cooperation. Taing Rinith, Khmer Times, May 5
Philippines
Speaker: 19th Congress focused on jobs, food security. House Speaker Martin Romualdez reaffirmed the legislature’s commitment to job creation and food security, citing a recent SWS survey showing 93% of Filipinos support candidates prioritizing these issues. He highlighted several key laws passed by the 19th Congress, including the Trabaho para sa Bayan Act, the PPP Code, the Internet Transactions Act, and the One Town, One Product Philippines Act. Jeannette I. Andrade, Philippine Daily Inquirer, May 5
ICC legal fight enters critical phase. The legal battle over the International Criminal Court’s jurisdiction in trying former president Rodrigo Duterte for crimes against humanity has entered a decisive phase. Duterte’s defense team is attempting to dismiss the case on procedural grounds, arguing that the Philippines’ 2019 withdrawal from the Rome Statute negates the court’s authority. Victims’ representatives and legal experts counter that jurisdiction is preserved for crimes committed while the country was still a member, citing prior court rulings. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, May 5
Indonesia
Anwar, Prabowo discuss bilateral ties, regional issues in phone call. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto spoke by phone on May 3 to discuss strengthening bilateral cooperation and addressing regional challenges. They affirmed support for ASEAN unity ahead of the bloc’s summit in Kuala Lumpur and exchanged views on U.S. tariffs and the Myanmar crisis. ANTARA News, May 4
Singapore
As PAP triumphs again in Singapore, Workers' Party emerges as main opposition. Singapore’s ruling People’s Action Party secured a 14th consecutive election victory, winning 87 of 97 seats and increasing its vote share to 65% under Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s leadership. The Workers’ Party claimed the remaining 10 seats, affirming its role as the primary opposition force. Rae Wee, Xinghui Kok, Jun Yuan Yong and Bing Hong Lok, Reuters, May 4
Northeast Asia
U.S. Won’t Win Global Tariff War. Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff initiative introduces sweeping levies across global imports, including a base 10% tariff on all countries and much higher tariffs targeting nations with large trade surpluses with the U.S., such as China (145%), Vietnam (46%), and the EU (20%). This policy undermines WTO principles and has elevated the U.S. average tariff rate to 25.9%, exceeding even historical highs from the 1930s. Despite aiming to restore domestic manufacturing, the strategy risks backfiring due to high domestic dependence on imported intermediate goods and the inability of tariffs to prompt reshoring effectively. China's limited dependency on the U.S. market, diversified trade relations, and comprehensive manufacturing capacity help buffer against tariff impacts. Meanwhile, American consumers and businesses bear the cost burden, as higher import prices fail to meaningfully boost domestic production. The U.S.'s role as a reliable trade partner is further eroded by erratic tariff policy shifts, prompting allies and rivals to reorient trade away from the U.S. The policy's long-term effects are likely to exacerbate global “de-Americanization” trends rather than achieve strategic economic gains. Zhang Monan, China-US Focus, May 2
The Unification Church dissolution and Japan’s evolving religious governance On March 25, 2025, the Tokyo District Court ordered the dissolution of the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification, formerly the Unification Church, marking a pivotal moment in Japan’s legal approach to religious organizations. The Church, long linked with conservative politicians in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, came under intensified scrutiny after the 2022 assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, which exposed its deep political connections. Although the Church has faced allegations of exploitative practices for decades, strong constitutional protections for religious freedom had previously deterred government intervention. This changed in the wake of Aum Shinrikyo’s 1995 sarin gas attack, which shifted public sentiment towards increased oversight. The dissolution lawsuit, filed by Japan’s Ministry of Education, was pursued under civil rather than criminal law, making it the first such case initiated without criminal charges. While the ruling revokes the Church's legal privileges, it does not ban its operations entirely. Religious freedom activists have raised concerns about the implications for constitutional rights, but the government argues that the action aligns with legal provisions allowing dissolution when public welfare is harmed. The Church plans to appeal, and its future legal status remains uncertain. However, its political entanglements continue to pose challenges for the LDP. Ernils Larsson, East Asia Forum, May 3
Japan faces the bitter harvest of agricultural neglect. Japan’s rice prices surged 94 percent year-on-year by March 2025, revealing a crisis born from policy failure rather than external shocks. Despite a sharp drop in rice consumption over decades, the government continued to suppress production through outdated policies like the gentan program, designed to protect small-scale farmers by limiting rice acreage. Though officially ended in 2018, the practice persists, supported by the Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA) and the Ministry of Agriculture. Institutional inaction following a poor harvest in 2024 further worsened shortages, despite ample government stockpiles. Japan’s current rice output is half of its production potential, exposing the country’s food security to increasing global instability. Strategic competition has weaponized food in global conflicts, with Japan’s low food self-sufficiency, just 38 percent in 2023, rendering it especially vulnerable. While JA has grown into a financial powerhouse, its structure perpetuates high rice prices and disincentivizes reform. Meanwhile, consumers face record inflation, empty shelves, and reliance on imported rice. Government policies, including the failure to adjust amid Trump-era pressure to open Japan’s agricultural markets, have prioritized financial institutions over fundamental food security. Japan must reassess its strategic priorities to protect its population’s access to essential staples. Seohee Park, East Asia Forum, May 2
Southeast Asia
US tariffs are a wake-up call for Indonesia to diversify and reform. The imposition of a 32 percent tariff on Indonesian exports to the United States as part of Donald Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” trade measures has exposed vulnerabilities in Indonesia’s economic strategy. With the U.S. being Indonesia’s second-largest export market, especially for textiles, electronics, and footwear, the sudden shock threatens further job losses and deepens existing industry declines. Indonesia has pledged to purchase US$18 billion in American goods, hoping to ease trade tensions, but historical precedent suggests such gestures may not avert long-term tariff impositions. The situation presents an opportunity for Indonesia to deepen regional integration, particularly through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and to expand into alternative markets such as China, Japan, and South Korea. Simultaneously, domestic reforms—like reducing local content requirements and simplifying business regulations—are crucial for enhancing global competitiveness. President Prabowo’s swift call for deregulation reflects a broader recognition that structural reforms are overdue. Though negotiations continue, the tariffs highlight the fragility of Indonesia’s export-dependent model and serve as a catalyst for long-term strategic diversification. Arrizal Jaknanihan and Lukas Singarimbun, East Asia Forum, May 3
Myanmar’s Earthquake Threatens a Lasting Economic Scar. The 28 March earthquake that struck central Myanmar caused over 3,600 deaths, injured more than 5,000 people, and destroyed thousands of buildings in the Mandalay and Sagaing regions and Naypyidaw. The destruction of critical infrastructure, including roads, bridges, and industrial zones, threatens to cripple the region’s economy, particularly its agricultural supply chains. Mandalay, as a major economic hub, saw damage to businesses vital for both domestic productivity and exports. Delays in public services and trade certifications are expected due to the loss of government facilities and personnel in Naypyidaw. With inflation already high and tax revenues declining, the regime’s capacity to finance reconstruction is limited. Insurance payouts will be minimal due to low coverage rates, and international assistance is unlikely to match the scale of the damage. The State Administration Council may resort to inflationary financing, further worsening macroeconomic conditions. Strained foreign exchange reserves and restrictive import and trade policies compound the risk. Reinvestment is also discouraged under the regime’s current economic controls, including licensing barriers and multiple exchange rates. Without significant reforms, Myanmar faces the prospect of entrenched poverty and reduced productive capacity, with central regions potentially locked into long-term economic stagnation. Jared Bissinger, Fulcrum, May 5
Thai State Audit Office Has Only Itself to Blame For Tragic Collapse of Building. The collapse of a 30-storey building under construction in Bangkok on 28 March, following tremors from Myanmar’s earthquake, killed at least 63 people and left 31 missing. Uniquely, it was the only high-rise in the city to collapse, and it was intended to serve as the new headquarters of the State Audit Office (SAO), Thailand’s top anti-corruption agency. Investigations revealed serious design irregularities, including a suspicious reduction in core wall thickness and forged signatures on change documents. The construction joint venture involved Italian-Thai Development (ITD) and China Railway Number 10 (Thailand) (CR10T), which may have concealed its foreign ownership to win government bids. CR10T is now under investigation for violating the Alien Business Act and faces dissolution, with implications for its involvement in over 20 other projects, including the Thai-Chinese high-speed railway. The collapse also exposed the use of sub-standard steel produced by Xin Ke Yuan Steel (XKY), a Chinese firm using banned induction furnace (IF) methods. The Industry Ministry has demanded records of XKY’s steel sales, though the company denies supplying materials for the project. While ITD and CR10T insist all materials were certified, test samples proved otherwise. The SAO’s oversight is under scrutiny, particularly its failure to thoroughly vet partners or monitor construction. Thailand’s declining corruption perception ranking raises further concerns about systemic governance failures. Termsak Chalermpalanupap, Fulcrum, May 2
Oceania
Can a Labor majority government fix Australia’s major domestic and international problems? Following one of the largest electoral victories in modern Australian history, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's Labor government has secured a substantial parliamentary majority. The defeat of opposition leader Peter Dutton, who lost both his party’s momentum and his own seat, was driven by ineffective campaign strategies and policies, including unpopular stances on nuclear power and remote work. Despite the majority in the House, Labor faces legislative challenges due to an unchanged Senate composition, necessitating continued cooperation with independents and minor parties. Australia confronts structural issues: real wages have stagnated for over a decade, productivity growth has weakened, and public finances are strained by expanding deficits and off-budget commitments. Key public services such as disability support, aged care, and universities are under stress from rising costs, workforce shortages, and reduced international student funding. Internationally, the re-emergence of Donald Trump and his tariff regime has damaged U.S.–Australia relations, with public trust in the U.S. plummeting from 83% in the Obama era to 36% today. Albanese now seeks to manage alliance tensions through critical minerals diplomacy while reducing dependence on the U.S. With the opposition in disarray, Albanese has a political opening to deliver on his 2022 promise to pursue serious reform in his second term. Adam Triggs, East Asia Forum, May 4