Asia Daily: May 30, 2025
China
China unveils world’s first AI nuke inspector. Chinese scientists have developed an AI system capable of distinguishing real nuclear warheads from decoys, marking a global first in arms control verification technology. Created by the China Institute of Atomic Energy, the system uses neutron flux data and a deep learning network, while shielding classified warhead designs with a polythene barrier. The tool aims to revive disarmament dialogue but faces skepticism over data security and verification trust. Stephen Chen, South China Morning Post, May 30
China pledges boost to law enforcement cooperation with Pacific Island nations. China committed to expanding climate resilience and law enforcement cooperation with Pacific Island countries during high-level talks in Xiamen. Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced US$2 million for climate projects and a pledge to conduct 100 small-scale infrastructure initiatives. While no security deals were disclosed, both sides agreed to hold another policing dialogue this year. Laura Zhou, South China Morning Post, May 29
Japan
Japan rules out defense deal in return for U.S. tariff easing. Japan’s Defense Minister Gen Nakatani stated the country will not purchase U.S. defense equipment as a concession in tariff negotiations, stressing that national security decisions must be based on strategic needs, not trade talks. His comments followed suggestions from Japan’s tariff chief that defense purchases could reduce the trade deficit. Nakatani is set to meet U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Kyodo News, May 30
South Korea
Early voting for presidential election heads for record turnout. South Korea’s early voting turnout reached 27.17% by 1 p.m. on May 30, marking the highest level since the system was introduced in 2014. Over 12 million voters have cast ballots ahead of the June 3 presidential election, following months of political unrest triggered by former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law attempt. Candidates Lee Jae-myung, Kim Moon-soo, and Lee Jun-seok intensified campaigning, with polls showing Lee leading at 49.2%. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, May 30
South Korean presidential frontrunner proposes revising constitution on martial law. Lee Jae-myung, the leading presidential candidate from South Korea’s Democratic Party, proposed a constitutional amendment to restrict the use of martial law, requiring parliamentary approval within 24 hours. The move follows former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s controversial martial law declaration in December. Ju-Min Park, Reuters, May 30
U.S. leave open possibility of troop drawdown in South Korea. U.S. officials signaled a potential reduction of the 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea as part of a broader strategy to reposition forces across the Indo-Pacific to counter China. While no decision has been finalized, future deployments will be calibrated to deter both North Korean threats and Chinese aggression. Tara Copp, Associated Press, May 29
North Korea
North Korea's Kim Jong Un leads meeting on strengthening military, inspects artillery drill. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un chaired a session of the 8th Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party, urging party organizations to play a stronger role in resolving military challenges. He also stressed holding frequent firing contests under realistic conditions to boost combat readiness. In May, Kim oversaw missile and air drills, visited arms factories, and criticized a failed warship launch as “criminal.” Joyce Lee, Reuters, May 29
Nepal
Nepal's royalists demand restoration of monarchy dumped 17 years ago. Thousands rallied in Kathmandu demanding the return of the constitutional monarchy abolished in 2008, citing dissatisfaction with elected governments' failure to improve living standards. Protesters, backed by the Rastriya Prajatantra Party, also called for Nepal’s return to Hindu statehood. Despite recent deadly protests, former King Gyanendra has remained silent. Gopal Sharma, Reuters, May 29
Myanmar
Chinese ventures crop up in northern Shan State town under Kokang administration. Following its capture by the Kokang Army in late 2023, the town of Hseni in northern Shan State has seen an influx of Chinese businesses, reportedly boosted by a Chinese-brokered ceasefire. Positioned on a key trade corridor linking Myanmar and China’s Yunnan Province, Hseni now operates under the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), a Kokang-led force involved in Operation 1027. Kyaw Zin Win, Myanmar Now, May 29
Bangladesh Recalls Ambassador to Myanmar. Bangladesh has recalled its ambassador from Yangon after Myanmar’s regime expelled its military attaché, Brigadier General Aftab Hossain, on May 13. Dhaka maintains communication with the Arakan Army, which controls most of Rakhine State, despite Myanmar’s objections. Bangladesh is pursuing a UN-backed humanitarian corridor to aid civilians and facilitate Rohingya repatriation. The Irrawaddy, May 29
China delays truce monitoring as Myanmar junta’s grip on Lashio falters. Over a month after supervising Lashio’s handover to Myanmar’s regime, China has yet to open a promised ceasefire monitoring office in the northern Shan State capital. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), which captured Lashio during Operation 1027, remains active nearby and runs services from neighboring towns. The Irrawaddy, May 29
Laos
Govt convenes May session to review key achievements, plan ahead. Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone chaired a two-day cabinet meeting beginning May 29 to assess government initiatives and set priorities for June. Officials reviewed road repair progress, budget execution, and monetary plans for 2025. Discussions covered tourism success under the Visit Laos Year 2024, hydroelectric power policies, and draft decrees on startups, tourism, and national sports. Vientiane Times, May 30
Thongloun’s Tokyo visit seals new chapter in Laos–Japan Strategic Partnership. Lao President Thongloun Sisoulith met with Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru in Tokyo to mark 70 years of diplomatic relations and to deepen their newly elevated Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. The leaders agreed to boost collaboration in legal reform, energy, security, and climate initiatives under the Asia Zero Emission Community framework. Thongsavanh Souvannasane, The Laotian Times, May 30
Cambodia
Cambodian and Thai PMs commit to peaceful resolution following border clash. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra pledged to pursue peaceful solutions after a fatal border clash near the contested Mom Bei area, where a Cambodian soldier was killed. Each side blamed the other for initiating the incident. Ongoing military negotiations aim to defuse tensions while both leaders emphasized diplomacy over escalation. Taing Rinith, Khmer Times, May 30
Cambodian and Thai armies agree on four key points. Military leaders from Cambodia and Thailand reached a four-point agreement during a 45-minute meeting at the Chong Cham–O’Smach border, aiming to ease tensions following a fatal May 28 clash. Both sides committed to resolving disputes through existing bilateral mechanisms, maintaining the current ground situation, respecting sovereignty, and avoiding hostile acts. Khmer Times, May 30
Philippines
House gets notice of new date for reading of impeachment articles. The House of Representatives has received a formal letter from Senate President Francis Escudero informing Speaker Ferdinand Martin Romualdez that the presentation of impeachment articles against Vice President Sara Duterte will be moved to June 11 from the original June 2 date. The Senate postponed the schedule to prioritize key legislation before the 19th Congress adjourns. Gabriel Pabico Lalu, Philippine Daily Inquirer, May 30
PH, Japan strengthen partnership amid regional security concerns. Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo and Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya met in Tokyo to reinforce bilateral cooperation on maritime security and economic resilience. Their discussions advanced defense collaboration through the activation of the Reciprocal Access Agreement and the launch of talks for both the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement and an Information Security Agreement. Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, May 30
Singapore
47 countries to attend 22nd Shangri-La Dialogue in S’pore. Forty-seven countries will attend the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore from May 31 to June 2, with over 40 minister-level delegates confirmed. French President Emmanuel Macron will deliver the keynote speech, and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will also speak. China will not send its defense minister but will be represented by its National Defence University. Wong Pei Ting, The Straits Times, May 29
No top defense officials in China delegation at Shangri-La Dialogue. China confirmed that no senior defense leaders, including Defense Minister Dong Jun, will attend this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, breaking from past practice. Instead, a delegation from the People’s Liberation Army National Defense University will participate. Dong’s absence follows unconfirmed reports of a corruption investigation. Lutfil Jumadi, Channel News Asia, May 29
Taiwan
Trump aims to exceed first term's weapons sales to Taiwan, officials say. U.S. officials anticipate weapons sales to Taiwan under the Trump administration could surpass $18.3 billion from his first term, aiming to reinforce deterrence against China. Washington is urging Taiwan’s opposition parties to support increased defense spending, targeting 3% of GDP. New arms packages may include missiles, drones, and munitions. Michael Martina, Yimou Lee and Ben Blanchard, Reuters, May 30
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan wants to lead a middle-power rebalancing of global order. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev used the Astana International Forum to call for a stronger role for middle powers in shaping a multilateral global order. Without naming major powers, he urged structural UN reforms and an expanded Security Council. Tokayev said middle powers should gain influence and bear more responsibility. Eurasianet, May 29
No winners in trade war, experts say at Astana International Forum. Experts at the Astana International Forum warned that rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions are fragmenting the global economy. Daniel Runde cited trade as a geopolitical weapon, referencing the Jackson-Vanik amendment and Russia’s energy leverage. Lars-Hendrik Röller said trade policy is shifting from market-opening to protectionism. Aibarshyn Akhmetkali, The Astana Times, May 29
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan and Italy strengthen strategic partnership. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni signed a Joint Declaration in Samarkand to deepen Uzbekistan–Italy relations. Agreements cover investment protection, critical raw materials, migration, sustainability, and academic exchange. New partnerships involve Italian institutions like Sogesid, Ansaldo, and multiple universities. Uzbekistan Daily, May 29
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan ups judicial transparency amid spate of closed-door hearings. President Sadyr Japarov has signed a law mandating audio and video recordings of trials, allowing defendants to request livestreams. The reform follows a wave of closed hearings targeting opposition figures and journalists, raising concerns over democratic backsliding. While seen as a step toward transparency and digitalization, implementation will be key. Eurasianet, May 29
Northeast Asia
The wrong time for a collective defence pact in Asia. A proposed US-led collective defence pact with Japan, Australia, and the Philippines is ill-timed and built on flawed assumptions about both American consistency and regional interests. The Trump administration’s transactional foreign policy, scepticism of multilateral commitments, and economic protectionism have weakened US credibility, undermining the attractiveness of deeper security partnerships. Meanwhile, China has leveraged this unpredictability to position itself as a more stable regional actor. The proposal also ignores the historic failure of regional multilateral alliances such as SEATO and the success of bilateral agreements that allow strategic autonomy. Many Southeast Asian countries are wary of entrenching great power rivalry and would resist alignment in an overtly anti-China bloc. Ratner’s vision also overlooks the nuanced positions of regional players like Australia, which is simultaneously deepening US defence ties and stabilising relations with China. Furthermore, tying alliance commitments to a volatile US politics risks forcing premature strategic clarity, especially concerning Taiwan, which could escalate tensions. Flexible, interest-based arrangements like Reciprocal Access Agreements offer a more viable path for regional security than rigid, US-centric pacts. Focusing on autonomy over dependence provides Asia with a more resilient framework in an era of intensifying strategic competition. Bec Strating, Lowy Institute, May 29
Memorandum on Reducing the Risk of U.S.-China Conflict in Maritime East Asia. China’s strategy in maritime East Asia centers on weakening the U.S.-led alliance system by using gray zone tactics to coerce American allies while avoiding direct conflict. These actions exploit asymmetries in interest and commitment, with the United States reluctant to risk war over disputed features like the Senkakus or Scarborough Shoal. Beijing’s salami-slicing advances undermine allied confidence, prompting unilateral responses from Tokyo and Manila that risk triggering escalation. U.S. deterrence is complicated by conflicting objectives: discouraging Chinese aggression while restraining allies from provocation. The memorandum urges Washington to define clear national interests, such as chokepoint denial and protection of trade routes, and to communicate conditional, calibrated commitments. It advises against setting rigid red lines and discusses the need for strategic ambiguity, joint crisis-prevention plans, and exercises with allies to deter island seizures. Taiwan’s case is especially volatile, with the U.S. focused on high-end warfighting while underestimating gray zone threats like blockades. Effective deterrence requires adversaries to believe in U.S. willingness to act while ensuring allies understand that support is not unconditional. To prevent crisis escalation, American strategy must prioritize coordinated signaling, ally restraint, and avoidance of automatic interventions. Isaac B. Kardon, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 29
Japan reaps the consequences of flawed rice policies. Japan’s rice price surge in early 2025, despite a production surplus, exposes longstanding structural inefficiencies in its rice policy framework. A panic sparked by extreme heat and a major earthquake warning in August 2024 led to a consumer rush and speculative trading, driving prices up despite a 180,000-tonne production increase from the previous year. The mismatch stems from rigidities in Japan’s rice allocation system, where feed rice, often identical to eating rice, is subsidised and thus diverted away from human consumption. Although aimed at increasing food self-sufficiency, such policies can paradoxically cause eating rice shortages. Japan’s rice market remains insulated by a high import tariff, limiting the moderating influence of international supply. The reintroduced rice futures market, lacking mandatory physical delivery, may amplify rather than cushion volatility. Current challenges show flaws in Japan’s emergency preparedness and the need for flexible, market-driven mechanisms to manage supply and pricing. Structural reforms, including revisiting import barriers and subsidy design, could create a more resilient rice economy and reduce reliance on last-minute government interventions during perceived crises. Yoshihisa Godo, East Asia Forum, May 29
Africanising Chinese surveillance technology. Chinese surveillance systems are proliferating across Africa due to their affordability and financial accessibility, especially in countries with constrained resources and developmental needs. These technologies, often subsidised by Beijing, raise concerns about democratic backsliding and state overreach, particularly when deployed in environments lacking strong regulatory oversight. While China does not impose its governance model, it adapts to local contexts, supporting state actors in ways that may enable intrusive surveillance. Kenya’s Safe City project, for instance, integrates facial recognition and biometric data to combat crime, yet lacks robust legal safeguards to prevent abuse. Though over half of African nations have enacted data protection laws, enforcement remains weak, and ratification of the African Union Convention on Cybersecurity and Personal Data Protection lags. The risk is heightened in authoritarian states like Zimbabwe and Ethiopia, but even democracies such as Kenya face dangers when power tilts too far toward the state without adequate accountability. Sustainable solutions require not just policy reform, but significant investment in technical capacity to govern digital systems responsibly and protect civil liberties in the face of expanding digital infrastructure. Bulelani Jili, East Asia Forum, May 30
Adding Turbulence to the Turbulent Region: Cooperation Between Western Balkans, China, and Taiwan. China’s growing presence in the Western Balkans, led by investments through the Belt and Road Initiative and partnerships like Serbia’s “Community with a Shared Future,” has positioned it as a key economic actor. Infrastructure loans, energy projects, and green technology ventures have deepened ties, but raised concerns over transparency, dependency, and alignment with EU standards. In contrast, Taiwan’s engagement remains informal due to One-China policy constraints but includes cultural, academic, and limited commercial exchanges. Taiwan’s strengths in solar photovoltaics, smart grid systems, and semiconductors present potential for diversified cooperation, especially in clean energy and technology. While China’s turn to green investments has catalyzed major projects in Serbia and Montenegro, their turnkey nature risks technological lock-in and weak governance. Taiwan offers high-tech alternatives aligned with democratic values and Western standards. Though operating at a smaller scale, Taiwan’s involvement could help the region balance strategic dependencies and strengthen resilience amid great power competition. Strategic diversification, rather than exclusivity, is presented as the optimal path forward for Western Balkan nations navigating complex geopolitical and energy transitions. Stefan Vladisavljev and Damir Dizdarević, China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe, May 29
Why Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun won’t attend the Shangri-La Dialogue. Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun will not attend the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, reflecting Beijing’s strategic calculation to avoid direct confrontation with U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth amid tense bilateral relations. Instead, China will send a lower-level delegation from the PLA National Defense University, continuing a pattern of adjusting its representation based on geopolitical circumstances. Although Dong remains active, recently visiting Berlin and meeting regional counterparts, his absence signals China’s disinterest in a forum it views as a Western-dominated stage prone to antagonistic rhetoric. Officials in Beijing reportedly seek to avoid scenes of public disagreement or unintended signals of conciliation with Washington, especially under the Trump administration. Hegseth’s controversial profile, including involvement in internal scandals, further reduces Beijing’s incentive for engagement. While U.S.-China tensions have eased marginally since the Geneva talks, Beijing remains wary of U.S. containment efforts and has shifted focus toward cultivating partnerships with non-Western countries and enhancing regional trade ties. Premier Li Qiang’s participation in the ASEAN-China-GCC Summit exemplifies this strategic redirection. Given these dynamics, China’s decision to forgo high-level attendance at the Dialogue is consistent with its broader diplomatic posture of cautious disengagement from U.S.-centric security forums.
Han Yong Hong, ThinkChina, May 29
Southeast Asia
The Asian Art of Hedging in the Time of Donald Trump. Amid escalating uncertainty under Donald Trump's second presidency, Asian states are reinforcing strategic hedging as a means to maintain regional balance between the United States and China. Despite reassurances from Washington, Trump’s transactional diplomacy, tariff impositions, and rejection of multilateralism have disrupted trust and predictability. Countries like Singapore have historically used quid pro quo strategies, supporting US presence while increasing American imports, to maintain goodwill. Yet, reliance on reciprocity is increasingly precarious due to the erratic nature of Trump-era policymaking, heavily influenced by his MAGA base. In response, Asian states are engaging with alternative partners such as India, Japan, Australia, and the EU to diversify risk and preserve autonomy. Hedging enables smaller powers to retain strategic space without overt alignment, although it carries risks of backlash. With Trump sidelining liberal values and institutional leadership, Asia’s pragmatic centrism now requires deliberate commitment to upholding a rules-based order. Rejecting fatalism, the region must proactively safeguard its own stability, security, and prosperity, using diplomatic agility and strategic discretion. The challenge is not merely to navigate between power poles, but to shape a viable order in an increasingly anarchic global environment. Tan See Seng, RSIS, May 29
A Crisis of Trust: The SAC’s Failure in Post-Disaster Strategic Communications. Following the devastating 7.7 magnitude earthquake in central Myanmar on March 28, the State Administration Council (SAC) failed to implement effective strategic communication, deepening public mistrust amid ongoing conflict. Despite extensive aftershocks and displacement in Mandalay, Naypyidaw, and Sagaing, the SAC relied on propaganda-driven messaging through inaccessible or underused platforms, neglecting real-time public engagement. Electricity outages made television updates irrelevant, while selective footage and censored broadcasts replaced urgent information. Social media filled the gap, spreading both misinformation and verified updates, while grassroots networks and independent media stepped in to provide accurate reports. The junta responded to disinformation with arrests rather than clear messaging, and failed to warn the public about scams exploiting disaster relief. The regime continued military operations, including airstrikes, while advancing its election agenda, sidelining humanitarian needs. Public trust eroded further as SAC-affiliated channels showed minimal reach compared to Myanmar’s 33.4 million internet users. Interviews with affected residents revealed overwhelming rejection of state-run media, though they appreciated efforts from civil servants and NGOs. The regime’s prioritization of power consolidation over transparent communication and aid has transformed a natural disaster into a political and governance crisis. Su Mon Thazin Aung, FULCRUM, May 30
Malaysia’s ASEAN Chairmanship: Laying the Groundwork for Vision 2045. Malaysia’s 2025 ASEAN chairmanship launched the ASEAN Community Vision 2045. Under the theme “Inclusivity and Sustainability,” the vision departs from earlier integration-focused agendas to address geopolitical rivalry, economic disruption, and internal cohesion. The Political-Security Community Plan calls for rapid crisis responses and clearer political messaging, while Myanmar remains a critical challenge, with Malaysia proposing a permanent special envoy and leading discreet engagement initiatives. On economic fronts, ASEAN concluded upgrades to the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area and the Trade in Goods Agreement, demonstrating efforts to boost intra-regional integration amid Trump-era trade volatility. A Geoeconomic Task Force was also established to navigate economic nationalism and safeguard future-oriented industries. The ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community pillar addresses long-term regional megatrends, including ageing, climate change, AI ethics, and urban disparities. However, ASEAN’s consensus-based model, limited citizen participation, and under-resourced institutions remain constraints. Vision 2045 aspires to elevate ASEAN’s strategic relevance globally, but its success will depend on bridging the ambition-delivery gap with political will, institutional agility, and deeper public engagement. Joanne Lin, Melinda Martinus, Kristina Fong Siew Leng, FULCRUM, May 29