Asia Daily: May 29, 2025
China
U.S. says it will start revoking visas for Chinese students. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the State Department will begin aggressively revoking visas of Chinese students, especially those linked to the Chinese Communist Party or studying sensitive fields. The move, part of a broader immigration crackdown, may affect university revenues and talent pipelines. Visa criteria will be revised, intensifying scrutiny of future applications from China and Hong Kong. Jasper Ward, Costas Pitas and Michael Martina, Reuters, May 28
China flexes military muscle with East Asian naval activity, sources say. China has escalated naval operations in East Asian waters, deploying up to 70 vessels — including warships and coast guard boats—near Taiwan, Japan, and the South China Sea. Two aircraft carrier groups were mobilized, simulating attacks and asserting control over the first island chain. Regional governments have intensified surveillance, while China maintains its maneuvers are lawful. Yimou Lee and Ben Blanchard, Reuters, May 28
China's most advanced bombers seen on disputed South China Sea island. Satellite imagery confirmed China landed two H-6 long-range bombers on Woody Island in the Paracel Islands, marking their first deployment there since 2020. The aircraft, equipped with anti-ship and land attack cruise missiles, signal a show of force amid tensions with the Philippines and ahead of a major regional defense forum. Greg Torode, Reuters, May 28
Chinese defence oversight official latest figure snared in military corruption crackdown. Zhang Jianhua, former deputy head of the State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence (SASTIND), is under investigation for suspected corruption after turning himself in, according to China’s top anti-graft watchdog. Zhang is the latest in a widening crackdown that has targeted senior figures across China's defence and nuclear sectors. Yuanyue Dang, South China Morning Post, May 28
Japan
Japan gov't vows reserve rice supply to countryside amid price spike. Japan’s government pledged to distribute stockpiled rice more widely to rural consumers to combat soaring prices, halting orders from large retailers to prioritize smaller shops. Of the 300,000 tons offered under a new scheme, major retailers requested 200,000 tons before the cap. The remaining 100,000 tons will be allocated to smaller outlets, with the government covering transportation costs. Reserve rice will sell for about ¥1,800 per 5 kilograms. Kyodo News, May 28
Japan offers to buy 1 trillion yen in chips during U.S. tariff talks. Japan has proposed purchasing up to 1 trillion yen ($6.9 billion) worth of U.S. semiconductors, mainly from Nvidia, as a strategic move in ongoing tariff negotiations with Washington. The plan includes subsidies for domestic firms and support for U.S.-based manufacturing of chip components. Both countries aim to secure resilient supply chains and reduce the trade deficit before a summit between their leaders. Chinami Tajika, The Asahi Shimbun, May 28
South Korea
Early voting for presidential election kicks off. South Korea opened early voting for the June 3 presidential election at 3,568 polling stations nationwide, with turnout reaching a record 7% by 11 a.m. DP candidate Lee Jae-myung and PPP candidate Kim Moon-soo cast ballots in Seoul and Incheon, respectively. Lee urged citizens to counter the insurrection through voting, while Kim warned of losing freedom under DP leadership. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, May 29
North Korea
Vice ministers of N. Korea, Russia discuss closer cooperation. North Korea’s Vice Public Security Minister Ri Song-chol and Russia’s Vice Interior Minister Vitaly Shulika met in Pyongyang to discuss enhancing cooperation between their nations’ safety agencies. The talks, described by KCNA as held in a spirit of camaraderie and friendship, included senior officials from both ministries. The Russian delegation also met North Korea’s Public Security Minister and toured key sites in the capital. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, May 28
North Korean launches sweeping citizen registration verification effort. Authorities in South Pyongan province began a province-wide verification of citizen registrations on May 10, targeting individuals living outside their official addresses. The effort, carried out by a 40-member team including security officials and IT staff, aims to update and digitize data ahead of the Ninth Party Congress. Jeong Tae Joo, Daily NK, May 29
North Korea tests NFT sales for foreign currency in China. North Korea covertly tested NFT sales in Chinese cities from January to May, aiming to secure foreign currency by selling digital assets derived from state-owned content. Technical staff from the Korea Computer Center, disguised as trade representatives, accessed Southeast Asian marketplaces and operated under third-country corporate names. The final report, submitted May 19, confirmed technical feasibility but cited legal risks and high costs, deeming the strategy impractical for now. Jeong Tae Joo, Daily NK, May 28
Thailand
Thai PM presents $115 billion budget to parliament to support lacklustre economy. Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra proposed a 3.78 trillion baht ($115.5 billion) budget for fiscal 2026 to support economic recovery amid U.S. tariff threats. The plan includes a 0.7% spending increase and a deficit of 4.3% of GDP. The bill faces intra-coalition tensions but is expected to pass. Orathai Sriring, Thanadech Staporncharnchai, Panarat Thepgumpanat, Chayut Setboonsarng, Panu Wongcha-um, Reuters, May 28.
Vietnam
Dominica to soon open embassy in Vietnam. Vietnam and the Commonwealth of Dominica will boost diplomatic engagement as Dominica prepares to open its first embassy in Hanoi and appoint its inaugural ambassador. The two sides pledged mutual support at international forums and committed to peaceful dispute resolution and deeper ASEAN–CARICOM ties. Vietnam News, May 28
Cambodia
Cambodia says soldier killed in brief border skirmish with Thai troops. A Cambodian soldier was killed during a brief gunfire exchange with Thai troops at a disputed border near Preah Vihear and Ubon Ratchathani provinces. Cambodia’s defense ministry accused Thailand of initiating fire, while Thailand claimed its forces were provoked during negotiations. Both sides have stood down and committed to diplomacy. Panu Wongcha-um, Panarat Thepgumpanat and Lach Chantha, Reuters, May 28
PM urges calm, asserts control over border situation from abroad. Prime Minister Hun Manet reassured the public that he retains full command over military operations despite being in Japan during a border clash with Thai troops near Preah Vihear Province. Emphasizing that troop mobilizations require his approval, he called for calm and stressed that Cambodia does not seek conflict but will defend its territorial integrity if necessary. He urged citizens to avoid spreading panic and misinformation. Lhoyd, Khmer Times, May 29
Philippines
ICC judge recuses herself from disqualification case. ICC Judge Beit Hohler recused herself from the disqualification request in the case against former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte due to her prior role as a prosecution lawyer. The ICC Presidency accepted her recusal to avoid any appearance of bias. Judges Alapini-Gansou and Flores Liera declined to withdraw, stating previous rulings were procedural and do not indicate prejudice. A decision on ICC jurisdiction over the Philippines is still pending. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, May 29
Guo presents evidence in human trafficking case. Dismissed Bamban Mayor Alice Guo appeared in Pasig court to contest a qualified human trafficking charge linked to offshore gaming operations. Her lawyer confirmed evidence was submitted but withheld details. Guo faces additional charges including graft, misrepresentation, money laundering, and a citizenship-related petition. She remains detained, and the next hearing is set for early June. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, May 29
Indonesia
Indonesia open to ties with Israel if it recognizes Palestine, Prabowo says. President Prabowo Subianto announced Indonesia’s willingness to establish diplomatic relations with Israel, contingent on its recognition of Palestinian statehood. Speaking alongside French President Emmanuel Macron in Jakarta, Prabowo reaffirmed Indonesia’s commitment to a two-state solution and offered to send peacekeeping troops if conditions are met. Jayanty Nada Shofa, Jakarta Globe, May 28
France-Indonesia pact could lead to new Rafale jet orders, says Macron. France and Indonesia signed a preliminary defense agreement that could result in new orders for Rafale fighter jets, Scorpene submarines, and light frigates. President Macron and President Prabowo also discussed Gaza and bilateral ties. Over 20 MOUs worth at least $11 billion were signed, including a nickel-focused EV battery investment with Eramet and Indonesian wealth funds. Ananda Teresia, Stanley Widianto, Gus Trompiz and Sudip Kar-Gupta, Reuters, May 28
Taiwan
China being provocative, ignoring olive branches, top Taiwan policymaker says. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council Minister Chiu Chui-cheng accused China of applying “extreme pressure” and ignoring goodwill efforts, including offers for dialogue without political preconditions. He cited daily military threats and surveillance efforts, likening Beijing's tactics to the Cultural Revolution. China, meanwhile, maintained that Taiwan is part of its territory and dismissed prospects for talks due to alleged separatist actions. Ben Blanchard and Yimou Lee, Reuters, May 28
Kazakhstan
Energy, industry, and diplomacy: Kazakhstan-Italy relations reach new heights. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will visit Kazakhstan on May 30, coinciding with the first Central Asia-Italy summit. Ahead of the summit, a business forum highlighted a 25% rise in bilateral trade, totaling nearly $20 billion in 2024. Italy, now Kazakhstan’s third-largest trading partner, plans to sign new agreements in energy, industry, and environmental cooperation. Andrei Matveev, The Times of Central Asia, May 28
China angling to elbow Russia out of Kazakh nuclear power station contract. China National Nuclear Corp. is aggressively pitching its HPR-1000 reactors for Kazakhstan’s first nuclear plant, aiming to outbid Russia’s Rosatom. With a lower $5.5 billion estimate and integrated fuel cycle support, China's proposal is drawing interest amid rising costs for rival offers. Officials signal openness to consortium-led projects, with a final decision due in June. Eurasianet, May 28
Northeast Asia
Invasion of the Robots. China’s state media, under the directive of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Propaganda Department, recently staged the world’s first humanoid robot boxing event in a calculated move to blend entertainment with soft power projection. Broadcast by China Central Television, the event featured Unitree G1 robots and was designed to showcase Chinese technological capability in an engaging, viral format, supporting narratives of innovation and progress. This spectacle was widely circulated by international media and social platforms, gaining traction not as overt propaganda, but as futuristic amusement. In Taiwan, pan-blue media with ties to pro-China interests enthusiastically reported on the event, allowing Chinese state outlets to amplify this coverage as evidence of admiration across the strait. The campaign aligns with Xi Jinping’s 2021 directive to portray China as “lovable” and “respectable.” Despite China’s portrayal of tech supremacy, the contrast with Taiwan’s own robotics achievements, such as an elementary school team’s global competition win, underscores alternative narratives of innovation. The proliferation of robot-themed events in Chinese media indicates a sustained strategy to subtly promote China’s governance model and technological leadership through emotionally resonant, globally digestible content. David Bandurski, China Media Project, May 28
Charging Ahead or Falling Behind? Chinese EV Investments in the V4 States. Amid escalating economic nationalism and EU–China trade tensions, Chinese electric vehicle (EV) investments in the Visegrád Four (V4) states, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, highlight both opportunity and risk. The EU’s 2024 imposition of duties on Chinese battery electric vehicles (BEVs) shows fears over industrial overcapacity and unfair competition, especially as these CEE nations remain heavily reliant on auto manufacturing. While EV adoption aligns with EU climate targets, V4 countries face structural hurdles, with much of their auto sector employment tied to internal combustion engine components, making the transition uneven. Though Chinese investments promise job creation, they often prioritize low-value assembly operations and export orientation, limiting local integration and technology transfer. This exacerbates the V4’s “integrated periphery” status within Europe’s automotive industry. Slovakia, with deep exposure to SUV exports and a pro-Chinese government, illustrates the geopolitical vulnerabilities tied to Chinese supply chain dominance. Nonetheless, initiatives like InoBat’s joint venture with Gotion and ElevenEs’ battery breakthroughs show localized innovation potential. As global supply chain pressures mount, the EU must advance strategic autonomy through industrial policies that include content and tech-transfer requirements. Without cohesive action, V4 states risk remaining dependent outposts in the evolving EV economy. Dominika Remžová, China Observers, May 28
Western powerhouse: How Sichuan is shaping China’s energy future. Sichuan province is emerging as a critical force in China’s push toward carbon neutrality, leveraging abundant hydropower, growing solar and wind resources, and robust policy support to lead the national clean energy transition. As of 2023, over 85% of Sichuan’s electricity comes from renewable sources, with hydropower capacity exceeding 90 gigawatts and solar and wind combined reaching 18 GW. Its role is central to the “West-to-East Electricity Transmission Project,” supplying clean energy to major eastern provinces via ultra-high voltage lines. The transition has improved local air quality and created over 500,000 jobs, but challenges remain. Overdependence on hydropower, evident during a 2022 drought-induced energy crunch, exposes supply vulnerabilities. Additionally, Sichuan hosts high-emission industries producing chemicals, batteries, and metals, complicating emissions reduction. To address these, Sichuan is advancing energy efficiency plans, scaling new energy vehicles, and developing hydrogen and energy storage technologies. Initiatives aim to cut industrial energy use, expand green hydrogen capacity to 10 GW, and install 5 GW of storage to stabilize renewable output. Through diversified energy strategies and sectoral coordination, Sichuan is poised to drive China’s low-carbon future while mitigating regional and environmental risks. Chen Gang, ThinkChina, May 28
Power plays: China’s hydropower diplomacy in Latin America. China is leveraging hydropower diplomacy to deepen its influence in Latin America, aligning energy investment with its broader geopolitical goals. At the 2025 China–CELAC Forum, Beijing unveiled a US$9.18 billion package and over 100 joint projects, reinforcing ties with two-thirds of CELAC nations now part of the Belt and Road Initiative. Hydropower, which provides 45% of Latin America's electricity, is central to this strategy. Chinese state firms have financed or acquired major assets in Peru, Chile, Brazil, Honduras, Ecuador, and Bolivia, often gaining control over power generation, transmission, and distribution. These efforts position China as a dominant energy actor, but not without controversy. Projects like Ecuador’s Coca Codo Sinclair and Chile’s Rucalhue dam have raised concerns about labor abuses, environmental harm, and lack of transparency. Some initiatives have sparked public backlash and regulatory scrutiny, particularly over ecological damage and foreign labor use. While China’s hydropower investments meet critical infrastructure needs and extend economic cooperation, their long-term sustainability hinges on local governance, community engagement, and environmental safeguards. As China solidifies its energy presence, Latin American states face the challenge of balancing development benefits with the potential social and environmental costs of deepening dependency. Amit Ranjan and Genevieve Donnellon-May, ThinkChina, May 28
Southeast Asia
Grand promises meet hard realities in Prabowo's Indonesia. President Prabowo Subianto’s ambitious economic agenda faces mounting challenges, as financial volatility, hasty policy changes, and governance concerns undermine his administration’s credibility. His goal of achieving 8% annual GDP growth collides with a deteriorating investment climate; Indonesia’s stock market has slumped nearly 15% over the past year, foreign capital is fleeing, and Finance Minister Sri Mulyani’s rumored resignation added to investor anxiety. Populist messaging has failed to reassure markets or address structural issues. Sweeping mining law reforms, passed with minimal deliberation, signal a prioritization of economic expedience over environmental and regulatory safeguards. At the same time, the US$28 billion free meal program has sparked concerns about corruption, operational feasibility, and sustainability, diverting funds from essential ministries while struggling to reach remote areas. Efficiency measures have resulted in budget cuts of up to 70% for numerous agencies, while initial exemptions for defence spending triggered public backlash. Without a strategic recalibration, Prabowo’s government risks squandering its political capital and deepening national economic instability. Geo Dzakwan Arshali and Muhammad Izzuddin Al Haq, East Asia Forum, May 29
Thailand Should Not Rush to Be a Service-based Economy. Amid wide global economic instability and turmoil, Thailand is exploring a pivot toward a service-based economy, but analysts caution against abandoning its strong manufacturing foundation. With manufacturing accounting for 25% of GDP and key sectors like electronics, automobiles, and food processing deeply integrated into global value chains, a premature shift risks halting industrial progress and inducing “premature de-industrialisation.” Programs like Thailand 4.0 and the Paetongtarn administration’s push for entertainment-led services show a growing policy tilt, yet services often complement, not replace, manufacturing. For instance, Thailand’s automotive sector—employing nearly a million people across manufacturing and related services—demonstrates how services like logistics and maintenance thrive on an active industrial base. In semiconductors, Thailand still handles back-end tasks like chip packaging but has the capacity to move up the value chain with targeted state support. Rather than fully transitioning, the country should modernize manufacturing and build service capabilities around it. Integrated strategies that strengthen industry-linked services and avoid overreliance on soft power or entertainment sectors will ensure sustainable growth. A balanced approach, focusing on enhancing production capabilities while leveraging service synergies, offers a more resilient pathway in the changing global economic landscape. Wannaphong Durongkaveroj, FULCRUM, May 29
Green Hydrogen in Southeast Asia: Connecting National Strategies with Public Support. As Southeast Asia’s energy demand grows rapidly, green hydrogen is gaining prominence as a potential solution for decarbonization and energy security. While the region remains highly dependent on fossil fuels, rising interest in hydrogen aligns with national strategies from Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam, each tailoring their hydrogen roadmaps to domestic capabilities and export goals. Public support is also increasing, with the 2024 Southeast Asia Climate Outlook Survey revealing notable growth in approval for green hydrogen, especially in countries with published strategies. Green hydrogen remains an emerging technology, yet its clean credentials and perceived economic benefits, such as job creation and revenue generation, resonate strongly with working-age populations. However, large-scale commercial production has yet to materialize in the region. Barriers include high production costs, underdeveloped infrastructure, regulatory gaps, and competition from more mature low-carbon alternatives. Export ambitions also face stiff global competition, making regional cooperation critical. Public perceptions are shaped by government messaging and media, but sustained support depends on delivering tangible outcomes. Without visible progress, high costs or safety concerns could reverse public enthusiasm, delaying the hydrogen transition. Coordinated policies and realistic expectations are essential to ensure hydrogen efforts complement broader decarbonisation goals. Christopher Len, FULCRUM, May 28
Oceania
Australia–South Korea: The case for a new maritime focus. Australia and South Korea have made notable progress in naval cooperation over the past decade, marked by regular joint exercises and a focus on maritime security. Despite this, the relationship has plateaued, especially in the area of technical interoperability. Both nations now regard maritime security as critical to national defense, as seen in recent strategic policy changes, with South Korea espousing the protection of sea lines of communication and Australia pivoting to a maritime-focused defence posture. Each navy is undergoing modernization efforts, including South Korea’s “Smart Fleet” initiative and Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines under AUKUS. The two countries already share foundational capabilities, such as US-derived Aegis combat systems. Yet, a structured framework is needed to convert existing cooperation into a true operational partnership. Establishing a working group on interoperability, with a roadmap and regular reporting, is proposed to institutionalize collaboration. Industrial synergies, such as Hanwha’s investment in Austal and opportunities for co-production of naval assets, further reinforce the strategic logic for deeper ties. Formalizing this alignment through measurable, phased integration could elevate the bilateral relationship and enhance security across the Indo-Pacific. Jennifer Parker, Lowy Institute, May 28
From transit hub to drug market: Criminal syndicates transform Pacific threats. The Pacific region is confronting a surge in transnational crime as local drug markets emerge alongside longstanding trafficking routes. A recent methamphetamine seizure in Fiji exposed deep corruption within national enforcement agencies, with members of the Counter Narcotics Bureau and Fiji Revenue and Customs Services implicated. This signals a broader change: Pacific nations are no longer mere transit zones but are becoming end-markets for narcotics, driven by economic disparity and institutional fragility. Syndicates leverage insider threats, using bribery, coercion, and familial pressure to compromise law enforcement and judicial systems. These networks, increasingly sophisticated and embedded in legitimate businesses, link the Pacific with larger criminal ecosystems in Asia and the Americas. The result is a systemic challenge requiring coordinated regional responses. Law enforcement alone cannot solve this; collaboration across governments, international partners, and civil society is essential. Strategies must focus on anti-corruption measures, intelligence-sharing frameworks, and trust-building within and between agencies. The current crisis underscores the urgent need for a Pacific-led, partner-supported security initiative to rebuild resilience and accountability within regional institutions and prevent further erosion by organised crime. Jose Sousa-Santos, Lowy Institute, May 28