Asia Daily: May 23, 2025
Japan
Japan PM Sacks Farm Minister Over Controversial Gifted Rice Gaffe. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba dismissed Agriculture Minister Taku Eto following public backlash over a remark that he receives so much rice from supporters he no longer buys it. The comment, made during a fundraising event amid record-high rice prices, was condemned as insensitive and out of touch. Eto's resignation marked the first Cabinet departure under Ishiba and comes as the government faces pressure ahead of a key election. Former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi was appointed as his replacement, pledging to rebuild trust and address rice affordability. Noriyuki Suzuki, Kyodo News, May 21
Minister to Sell Rice Stockpiles at Lower Price, Drop Bidding System. In response to soaring rice prices, Japan’s new Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi announced plans to end the current bidding system and instead sell government rice reserves directly to wholesalers. The move seeks to stabilize retail prices, which have surged to over 4,200 yen for a five-kilogram bag—more than double last year’s average. The government may release more than 610,000 tons, or 60% of its emergency reserves, and aims to target a price of around 3,000 yen. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba discussed consumer affordability as a policy priority. Shinya Tokushima, The Asahi Shimbun, May 22
Japan, U.S. Agree Dollar-Yen Rate Mirrors Economic Fundamentals. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent affirmed that the current dollar-yen exchange rate reflects underlying economic fundamentals, effectively removing it from bilateral tariff negotiations. Meeting on the sidelines of a G7 summit, both parties reiterated support for market-determined rates and avoided setting target exchange levels. While Tokyo remains opposed to U.S. tariffs, particularly those affecting the auto sector, officials have signaled flexibility in pursuing a partial reduction rather than complete removal. The U.S. maintains a 10% base tariff, with Japan facing an additional 14% levy. Takuya Karube, Kyodo News, May 22
Japan's Rice Crisis: Prices Soar, Supplies Dwindle and a Minister Resigns. Japan faces a deepening rice crisis as prices have doubled and supermarket shelves remain understocked, prompting the resignation of Agriculture Minister Taku Eto over insensitive remarks about receiving free rice. Panic buying after a megaquake warning, a poor 2023 harvest, and rising demand from increased tourism and wheat substitutes have fueled the shortage. Only 10% of released reserves have reached the market, leading to criticism of delayed government action. New minister Shinjiro Koizumi pledged reforms, while retailers like Aeon plan to sell imported Calrose rice to stabilize supply. Mari Yamaguchi, AP News, May 22
South Korea
U.S. Considers Withdrawing Thousands of Troops from S. Korea. The Trump administration is weighing the withdrawal of approximately 4,500 U.S. troops from South Korea, part of a broader reassessment of force deployment in the Indo-Pacific, according to unnamed defense officials. This would move personnel to locations such as Guam and is linked to calls for increased burden-sharing and strategic flexibility amid growing tensions with China. Top military officials, including Adm. Samuel Paparo and Gen. Xavier Brunson, have warned that the drawdown could embolden North Korea and diminish deterrence. The proposal is part of an informal policy review and has not yet resulted in official changes. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, May 22
Travel Ban Imposed on Unification Church Leader Amid Probe into Ex-First Lady Scandal. South Korean prosecutors have imposed a travel ban on Unification Church leader Han Hak-ja amid an investigation into allegations that former First Lady Kim Keon Hee received luxury gifts linked to the church. The probe centers on claims that a church official gifted Kim a diamond necklace worth 60 million won and two Chanel bags via shaman Jeon Seong-bae after President Yoon’s 2022 election. While the church denies institutional involvement, prosecutors suspect Han’s knowledge or approval. The whereabouts of the necklace remain unknown, though the bags were allegedly exchanged by Kim’s staff. Oh Seok-min, Yonhap News Agency, May 22
North Korea
Rice and Corn Prices Drop in North Korea. Grain prices in North Korea have declined after weeks of increases, driven by a combination of spring farming mobilizations and rising cross-border imports. Rice prices in Pyongyang fell 5.3% to 9,000 won per kilogram as of May 10, while corn dropped 16.3% to 3,600 won. Similar trends were observed in Sinuiju and Hyesan. Reduced market demand is linked to workplace food distributions and decreased market activity during the farming season. Although imports have increased, experts warn the decline may be temporary due to persistent structural food shortages. Seulkee Jang, Daily NK, May 22
Pyongyang Schools Demand Parents Pay for New Desk Mandate. Parents in Pyongyang are being required to fund the replacement of school desks following a government directive mandating a change from shared to single-student furniture. Surprise inspections began on May 10 across elementary and middle schools to assess compliance, sparking frustration as the financial burden falls entirely on families. At one school in Sadong District, students were asked to pay 50,000 won, equivalent to 6–8 kg of rice, for a new desk. Parents voiced concerns over affordability and increased maintenance duties, criticizing the lack of state support for the initiative. Eun Seol, Daily NK, May 22
Thailand
Coup Risk Remains, Warns Phumtham. Defence Minister Phumtham Wechayachai cautioned that military coups in Thailand cannot be completely ruled out, even a decade after the 2014 NCPO takeover. While acknowledging a move toward more progressive military leadership, he emphasized the importance of strengthening democratic institutions and avoiding undemocratic shortcuts. He urged respect for differing views, maintenance of checks and balances, and peaceful problem-solving. Phumtham highlighted that democracy requires time to mature. Meanwhile, MP Parit Wacharasindhu identified systemic issues, including Senate election fraud, as barriers to democratic progress under the 2017 constitution. Bangkok Post, May 22
Myanmar
An Urban Guerrilla Group in Myanmar Claims Responsibility for Assassinating a Retired Army Officer. A retired Myanmar military major general, Cho Tun Aung, was assassinated in Yangon by a group called the Golden Valley Warriors, marking the latest in a series of killings targeting figures aligned with the junta. The group said Cho was targeted for teaching counterterrorism and internal security at the National Defense College and for his role in supporting army-affiliated militias through the War Veterans Organization. His death adds to the rising toll of military, government, and business figures killed since the 2021 coup that plunged Myanmar into ongoing armed conflict. Grant Peck, AP News, May 22
Philippines
Philippines Condemns Chinese Coast Guard's Use of Water Cannon on a Research Vessel. Philippine officials denounced the Chinese coast guard for using a water cannon and sideswiping a fishing research vessel near Sandy Cay in the disputed South China Sea. The incident, which damaged the vessel and endangered its crew, occurred during routine marine research between Philippine-held Thitu Island and China’s Subi Reef base. China claims the vessels entered its waters illegally, while the Philippines maintains the area is within its territorial sea. The U.S. condemned China's actions as reckless and reaffirmed its defense commitments under a Mutual Defense Treaty. Jim Gomez, AP News, May 2
Malaysia
US Tariff Hikes, Myanmar War and Sea Disputes Will Top ASEAN Summit Agenda. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim confirmed that the upcoming ASEAN summit will focus on U.S. tariff increases, the Myanmar civil war, and South China Sea territorial disputes. ASEAN nations are grappling with U.S. tariffs of 10–49%, prompting accelerated trade talks with Washington. Anwar emphasized economic resilience through deeper ties with China, India, and the EU. He also addressed efforts to engage both Myanmar’s military and opposition in peace talks. Despite tensions, ASEAN aims to maintain balance between U.S. and Chinese interests. AP News, May 22
Uzbekistan
M360 Eurasia Opens in Tashkent with Emphasis on Digital Growth. The GSMA M360 Eurasia conference debuted in Tashkent on May 21, focusing on the economic potential of mobile technologies in the region. Mobile services contributed $220 billion to Eurasia’s 2024 GDP, projected to reach $270 billion by 2030. Topics included 5G deployment, AI applications, and digital inclusion. Despite wide coverage, 80 million people remain offline due to affordability and digital literacy barriers. Uzbekistan's Digital 2030 strategy was praised for expanding access and supporting tech growth. Innovations like the Kaz-LLM language model and satellite-based connectivity were also showcased. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, May 22
Northeast Asia
South Korea’s Democracy Remains Vulnerable. President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment over his attempted martial law declaration exposed both the strengths and vulnerabilities of South Korea’s democratic system. Democratic institutions ultimately upheld the rule of law, with the Constitutional Court unanimously ruling for Yoon’s removal. However, the episode highlighted deep ideological divisions, inconsistent legal interpretations, and political weaponization that continue to threaten democratic resilience. Conservatives criticized procedural flaws and the actions of a legislature dominated by progressives, while progressives accused Yoon of authoritarianism and insurrection. Public protests, legal ambiguity, and accusations of bias within investigative and judicial bodies fueled further instability. Despite legal adherence in removing Yoon, the political climate remains polarized, and institutional weaknesses persist. As South Koreans prepare to elect a new president, the future of their democracy hangs on whether lessons from this crisis will lead to reforms and more robust democratic norms. Duyeon Kim, Council on Foreign Relations, May 22
South Korea’s Presidential Frontrunner Calls Himself a Pragmatist. Skeptics Aren’t Convinced. Leading the polls at 51 percent, Lee Jae-myung has repositioned himself as a centrist pragmatist, emphasizing economic resilience, industrial competitiveness, and strategic flexibility in foreign affairs. This marks a departure from his traditional progressive ideology, reflecting both electoral calculation and broader geopolitical anxieties. While Lee touts a “special alliance” with the U.S., he insists on interest-based diplomacy and has appointed figures like Kim Hyun-jong to underline economic statecraft. His “right-click” strategy has raised support in conservative strongholds, though doubts persist about the sincerity and durability of his platform. Critics argue that Lee’s adaptable messaging lacks a coherent vision and warn of voter apprehension about concentrated political power. Though his recalibration has expanded appeal, its long-term credibility remains uncertain. His candidacy is viewed as a test of whether South Korean progressives can evolve without losing legitimacy amid rising international competition. Darcie Draudt-Véjares, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 21
Trump Tariff Threats a Second-Best Path to Domestic Reform in Asia. President Trump’s 2025 reciprocal tariff strategy has increased global trade uncertainty, harming both U.S. partners and its own economy. However, the resulting pressure could spur Asian nations to confront entrenched domestic interests and enact overdue structural reforms. If used strategically, the threat of tariffs may enable countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and India to reduce non-tariff barriers and liberalize protected sectors such as agriculture, automobiles, and services. Recent negotiations with China and India hint at the possibility of reduced tariffs and expanded free trade agreements, potentially transforming crisis into reform momentum. Still, outcomes depend heavily on how negotiations are structured and whether they foster genuine liberalization or distortive purchase commitments. Long-term gains require multilateralization of tariff reductions and policy consistency from the U.S., whose erratic trade behavior has undermined trust. If reforms follow, Trump’s protectionism may paradoxically catalyze regional liberalization. Jayant Menon, East Asia Forum, May 22
Sparrow Returns to the Peninsula: Observations on North Korea’s May 15 Air Drills. North Korea’s May 15 air drills showcased an effort to modernize its air force through the display and testing of air-to-air missiles and guided bombs. A new medium-range radar-guided missile resembling the U.S. AIM-120 and Chinese PL-12 was presented, though likely non-operational, as indicated by apparent image manipulation. A separate, less advanced missile similar to the AIM-7 Sparrow appears to be under active development, signaling North Korea’s parallel approach to missile modernization. Additionally, non-operational precision glide bombs were exhibited, hinting at aspirations for improved strike capabilities. Despite these developments, North Korea's aging air fleet remains insufficient against the superior air forces of South Korea and the United States. Instead, these technologies may bolster land-based air defenses, with potential applications resembling China’s HQ-6A or the RIM-7 SeaSparrow systems. The drills reflect Pyongyang’s prioritization of air defense in nuclear deterrence rather than the pursuit of air superiority. Tianran Xu, 38 North, May 22
From Extraction to Innovation: The EU and Taiwan in the Critical Minerals Value Chain. As the EU intensifies its green transition, reducing dependence on China-dominated critical mineral supply chains has become vital. The EU’s 2023 Critical Raw Materials Act sets targets for domestic mining, processing, and recycling, while promoting strategic partnerships. Taiwan, though lacking raw material reserves, plays a pivotal role in downstream sectors such as semiconductor manufacturing and rare earth-dependent technologies. Its regulatory alignment with EU standards, investment in circular economy R&D, and high-tech industrial base position it as a valuable collaborator. EU-Taiwan cooperation could focus on processing innovations, traceability, battery recycling, and joint research on sustainable materials. Bilateral platforms already exist to facilitate these efforts, with potential expansion into co-funded R&D via Horizon Europe. This partnership exemplifies the EU’s “de-risking” strategy—increasing resilience through industrial complementarity rather than decoupling. Taiwan’s technological strengths and shared values support a mutually beneficial path to more secure and sustainable critical mineral supply chains. Blanca Marabini San Martín, China Observers, May 22
How Guizhou’s Big Data Dream Became a Corruption Playground. Guizhou’s ambition to become China’s big data hub has collapsed into a corruption scandal, engulfing multiple high-ranking officials and exposing systemic governance failures. Once hailed for pioneering digital development, Guizhou invested heavily in big data infrastructure, particularly in Guiyang and the Guian New Area. However, the initiative yielded little economic output while creating widespread graft. Successive officials, including four Guiyang mayors, senior BDDA leaders, and executives of state-owned enterprises, have been investigated or purged. Touted as a model by Xi Jinping in 2015, the sector’s decline became symbolically evident when Xi’s 2025 inspection tour excluded big data projects entirely. Critics argue that Guizhou’s underdeveloped economy and the influx of unchecked investment created fertile ground for misuse of funds, political favoritism, and unfinished mega-projects. The scandal has not only discredited local leadership but also tarnished the legacy of Politburo member Chen Min’er, who championed the initiative during his tenure. Edwin Ong, ThinkChina, May 22
Taiwan’s Risky Gamble: Relying on US Protection While Divided at Home. As US–China tensions escalate, Taiwan faces heightened uncertainty over Washington’s commitment to its defense under President Trump’s second term. Despite President Lai Ching-te’s assertive stance on sovereignty and efforts to counter Chinese infiltration, public trust in US protection is waning amid Trump’s ambiguous signals and lack of strategic clarity. While Congress and the State Department have reaffirmed support through legislation, Trump’s unpredictability and transactional approach raise fears of abandonment. Domestically, political deadlock and Lai’s minority administration hinder consensus on defense, exacerbating US skepticism and emboldening Beijing’s grey-zone tactics. Beijing may wait until post-Trump 2029 for bolder moves. Meanwhile, strategies such as “leave China, go north” reflect Taiwan’s push to reduce economic reliance on the mainland and deepen ties with democratic allies. However, internal division and overreliance on external defense commitments leave Taiwan vulnerable in a tumultuous geopolitical landscape. Miao Zong-Han, ThinkChina, May 22
Southeast Asia
ASEAN Needs Synthesised Navigation of the Economics-Security Nexus. As geopolitical tensions deepen, ASEAN faces mounting pressure to bridge its traditional divide between economic and security policymaking. The compartmentalised structure that previously enabled ASEAN’s stability now risks ineffectiveness amid growing overlap between trade and strategic interests, exemplified by the U.S.–China rivalry and EU investment screening. ASEAN’s response, including the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific and the newly formed Geoeconomic Task Force, aims to reinforce regional resilience. However, these efforts require increased integration across its three community pillars and more strategic external coordination. Concrete steps include upgrading trade agreements, accelerating digital economy talks, and expanding diversified partnerships to mitigate great power dependencies. To maintain centrality and influence, ASEAN must clearly communicate its unified strategy and reform its external engagement to reflect the economic-security convergence. The 46th ASEAN Summit presents a vital moment for the bloc to assert its relevance in a fragile global order. Julia Tijaja, East Asia Forum, May 23
A Veteran of Conflict, Vietnam Now Fights for Trade Balance. Fifty years after the fall of Saigon, Vietnam faces new battles, this time over trade imbalances and tariff pressures. The U.S. has imposed a 46% tariff on Vietnamese goods, affecting key exports like shrimp and catfish, and prompting domestic changes such as crop diversification and compliance upgrades in labor and customs. Once a major beneficiary of U.S.–China trade decoupling, Vietnam now finds itself penalized under the same friend-shoring policy that fueled its rise. Washington has raised concerns over transshipped Chinese goods, currency practices, and labor standards, while Hanoi is quietly addressing them to maintain U.S. market access. Bilateral talks have intensified under the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement, with Vietnam pledging to increase U.S. imports and align fiscal governance. Though trade tensions threaten economic and diplomatic gains, Vietnam’s reformist response and strategic balance between openness and autonomy position it to emerge as a resilient regional player. James Borton, Geopolitical Monitor, May 23
Vietnam’s Response to Controversial Mekong Projects in China, Laos, and Cambodia. Vietnam faces escalating risks to its Mekong Delta due to upstream hydropower dams and the China-backed Funan Techo Canal, which threaten water flow, sediment supply, and regional stability. China’s unilateral dam-building and investments in Laos and Cambodia have altered river dynamics, increasing erosion and saltwater intrusion in Vietnam’s delta. Vietnam’s approach, balancing diplomacy with China and quiet mitigation efforts with Laos and Cambodia, has preserved neighborly ties but failed to curb exploitation. Hanoi works through multilateral platforms like the MRC and LMC, and supports partnerships with the US, Japan, and Australia to counterbalance Beijing. However, weak Mekong governance structures, Vietnam’s own hydropower actions, and regional geopolitical tensions limit its influence. Vietnam should promote renewable energy in Laos and Cambodia, reform Mekong governance with binding mechanisms, and lead by example in sustainable dam management to safeguard its food and water security while maintaining diplomatic equilibrium. Phan Xuan Dung, FULCRUM, May 22
Prime Minister Anwar’s Visit to Russia: Long on Pomp, Short on Outcomes. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s four-day visit to Russia, marked by ceremonial honors and high-level meetings, failed to produce concrete economic agreements. Aimed at boosting trade, affirming Malaysia’s non-alignment, and strengthening ties with Russia’s Muslim population, the trip occurred amid the International Civil Aviation Organization’s ruling holding Russia responsible for the 2014 MH17 tragedy. Anwar reportedly raised MH17 with Putin but avoided public confrontation, maintaining Malaysia’s pragmatic diplomacy. Despite overtures for trade expansion and Anwar’s call for Putin to visit ASEAN, no progress was made on a free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union, and trade remains modest at US$3.2 billion. In Kazan, Anwar promoted halal cooperation and his Madani governance framework. His rhetoric echoed Malaysia’s strategic diversification, but the visit offered little tangible benefit, reinforcing perceptions of symbolic diplomacy over substantive gain. Ian Storey, FULCRUM, May 22
Oceania
Australia’s AI Ambitions Hinge on Collaboration with China. Australia’s artificial intelligence aspirations face significant constraints amid the US–China tech rivalry. While the U.S. alliance exerts pressure to decouple from Chinese partnerships, Australia’s AI research has historically benefited more from Chinese collaboration, contributing to high-impact outcomes. Canberra’s AI ecosystem struggles with limited infrastructure, funding shortfalls, talent shortages, and fragmented policy. Geopolitical tensions threaten to undermine academic freedom and research innovation by forcing alignment with U.S. security protocols and curbing ties with Chinese scholars. A binary choice between Washington and Beijing risks isolating Australia, reducing its competitiveness, and global standing. Instead, Australia must pursue strategic differentiation—segmenting sensitive projects under national security oversight while maintaining open, transparent collaboration in non-sensitive fields. Investment in domestic cloud infrastructure, talent retention, and co-leadership in global AI governance is essential to balancing sovereignty with integration. This dual-engagement strategy could secure Australia’s relevance in a rapidly evolving AI landscape. Marina Yue Zhang, East Asia Forum, May 23