China
Pentagon official's Beijing visit in doubt over $14 billion US arms package for Taiwan, FT reports. Beijing is withholding approval for Elbridge Colby’s proposed summer visit as it pressures Trump over a US$14 billion Taiwan weapons package. Trump has not decided whether to proceed after talks with Xi Jinping. He also said he would speak with Lai Ching-te, although no call had been scheduled. Reuters could not verify the report, and officials did not comment. Rishabh Jaiswal, Reuters, May 21
Japan
OpenAI to provide Japan gov't with advanced cybersecurity AI model. OpenAI said it will supply Japan’s government and select companies with GPT-5.5-Cyber, an AI model built for cybersecurity work. The limited-preview model aims to protect critical infrastructure and support specialized defensive workflows. Board member Paul Nakasone said Japanese officials showed strong interest in AI-driven cyberattacks, as concerns grow after Anthropic released Claude Mythos, which experts say could help find software flaws for attacks. Kyodo News, May 21
Japan mulls tapping 500 bil. yen for summer electricity, gas subsidies. Japan is considering using about 500 billion yen in reserve funds to subsidize household electricity and gas bills during summer demand. The plan would exceed last year’s household support as the Strait of Hormuz closure and Middle East crisis raise utility cost concerns. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi ordered coalition parties to design measures keeping bills below last summer’s levels, when subsidies cut average costs by around 1,000 yen. Kyodo News, May 21
South Korea
Producer price shock adds pressure on BOK for rate hike. Korea’s producer prices rose 2.5 percent in April from March, the fastest monthly increase since February 1998, and gained 6.9 percent from a year earlier. Fuel and raw material costs tied to the Middle East conflict drove the surge. Analysts expect the BOK to hold rates at 2.5 percent on May 28 while signaling a possible third-quarter hike as inflation pressure builds. Lee Hyo-jin, The Korea Times, May 21
Taiwan
Presidential Office remains optimistic on arms package. Taiwan’s Presidential Office said it remains optimistic about a US$14 billion weapons package as Beijing delays a proposed visit by US defense official Elbridge Colby. Pan Men-an said Taiwan has not received notice of a Trump-Lai call, while stressing that Taiwan-US communication remains smooth. Washington said its Taiwan policy remains unchanged and arms sale discussions would continue with Taipei, not Beijing. Author, Taipei Times, May 22
Thailand
Southeast Asia's second largest economy launches $5B package to ease living costs. Thailand approved the Thai Help Thai Plus program worth THB176 billion, or US$5.39 billion, to reduce living costs during an energy crisis. Officials said the plan will protect purchasing power as April inflation reached 2.9 percent and could rise to 5 percent. More than 43 million people will receive support, including added payments for state welfare card holders and digital upgrades for small shops through the Pao Tang application system. VnExpress International, May 21
Laos
Vietnam Breaks Ground on Expressway to Connect Vientiane. Vietnam began work on a 60-kilometer expressway section in Nghe An Province linking Vinh with the Laos border. The USD 910 million road is due in 2029 and forms part of the Vientiane-Hanoi corridor agreed in 2016. Laos has made over 30 percent progress on its Paksan-border segment. The full 700-kilometer route aims to expand trade, tourism, logistics, and seaport access across the Mekong region through cross-border transport development plans. Thongsavanh Souvannasane, Laotian Times, May 21
Indonesia
Eight Gold Prospectors Killed in Papua Amid Separatist Violence. Indonesia’s military said OPM killed eight civilians working as gold prospectors in Yahukimo Regency’s Korowai area. The military rejected OPM claims that the victims were security informants and sent troops with helicopter support to pursue the attackers and evacuate bodies. Kopitua Heluka claimed responsibility in a video, calling the shooting retaliation for two OPM members killed by Indonesian security forces last week. Patrols and monitoring would increase to protect communities. Jakarta Globe, May 21
India
India, Africa Union postpone New Delhi summit amid Ebola outbreak. India and the African Union postponed the fourth India-Africa Forum Summit, scheduled for May 28 to May 31 in New Delhi, because of an emerging public health situation in parts of Africa. The meeting was meant to deepen cooperation on trade, investment, innovation, development, digital technology, sustainability, and global governance. Congo is facing a rare Ebola strain outbreak, with 600 suspected cases and 139 suspected deaths recorded there so far. Tanvi Mehta, Reuters, May 21
Kyrgyzstan
EU Targets Kyrgyz Financial Sector Over Russia Sanctions Evasion. The EU is considering measures against Kyrgyz banks, oil companies, and cryptocurrency services as part of its 20th Russia sanctions package. Brussels says sharp growth in imports of machine tools and radio equipment points to transit of dual-use goods to Russia. Two Kyrgyz banks were added to EU sanctions lists in October 2025. Bishkek and EU representatives outlined technical cooperation and information exchange to address restrictions on targeted financial institutions. Vagit Ismailov, The Times Of Central Asia, February 27
East Asia
What’s the purpose of the Quad? The Quad faces drift as Trump moves from confrontation with China toward selective accommodation, weakening the grouping’s role in U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. No leaders summit has occurred since 2024, and Washington’s new strategy gives the Quad little attention. Cooperation on vaccines, technology, supply chains, and maritime awareness continues, but without shared purpose, the coalition risks becoming symbolic rather than a strategic bulwark against China. Brahma Chellaney, Nikkei Asia, May 21
Parsing the Results of the Xi-Trump Summit. The Beijing summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump stabilized U.S.-China relations through formal optics, senior delegations, and new trade and investment mechanisms. Concrete agreements remained limited, with discussion spanning students, agriculture, aviation, Iran, North Korea, artificial intelligence, fentanyl, military ties, and Taiwan. Trump’s Taiwan comments departed from U.S. practice, while planned meetings in Washington, Shenzhen, and Miami may sustain fragile strategic stability. David Shambaugh, CHINA US Focus, May 21
Can US-China economic ties regain stability despite rivalry? The U.S.-China summit advanced managed economic coexistence rather than reconciliation. New trade and investment councils could reduce uncertainty over tariffs, customs, entity listings, and reviews. Agriculture, aviation, critical minerals, and market access offer early anchors, while technology controls, investment distrust, and AI governance remain contested. Both sides seek stability because trade remains large, rivalry persists, and institutions can prevent commercial disputes from becoming shocks. Bo Chen, ThinkChina, May 21
Why Japan and China will struggle to end their feud. Japan’s feud with China centers on Taiwan, Takaichi Sanae’s security stance, tighter maritime activity, and Japan’s defense buildup. Diplomatic backchannels have weakened as pro-China intermediaries retire, Komeito leaves government, and Japanese public opinion hardens. China’s rare earth curbs, hostile media, and military pressure add strain. Warmer U.S.-China ties reduce Beijing’s incentive to repair relations with Tokyo, leaving reconciliation difficult. The Economist, May 21
Reserves alone will not guarantee Japan’s energy security. Japan’s oil reserves provide more than 200 days of supply, but dependence on crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz leaves the country exposed to Persian Gulf disruption. Stockpiles can calm markets and buy time, yet they cannot fix route risk or alliance pressure. Energy security requires supply diversification, maritime cooperation, renewable power, grid storage, transport electrification, demand reduction, and regional fuel partnerships rather than further reserve expansion alone. Yasuo Takao, East Asia Forum, May 21
Paving the Way for Hostile Coexistence? What North Korea’s Constitutional Revisions Mean for Inter-Korean Ties. North Korea’s revised constitution removes unification language, adds a territorial clause, and frames South Korea as a separate state, while avoiding terms such as primary foe or hostile state. Its defense provisions, border fortification plans, weapons tests, and Kim Jong Un’s rhetoric point toward hostile coexistence rather than peace. The revisions reduce prospects for reconciliation, raise risks near the southern border, and require analysis grounded in behavior over hopeful readings today. Rachel Minyoung Lee, 38 North, May 21
Southeast Asia
China may power Southeast Asia’s nuclear future. Southeast Asian states are weighing nuclear power as electricity demand, climate targets, and energy security concerns rise. China offers proven Hualong One reactors, state financing, supply chain depth, training, and fuel support, making it a strong contender beside France, Russia, South Korea, and the United States. Vendor choice creates decades of technical, fuel, and governance dependence, so governments must preserve flexibility while building domestic nuclear capacity. Zha Daojiong, ThinkChina, May 21
Johor’s Unelected State Representatives: Rhymes and Reasons. Johor’s BN government amended the state constitution to add five appointed assembly members, citing technical expertise and wider representation. Critics say the measure passed with limited debate, lacks safeguards for opposition or social groups, and may strengthen BN before a three-way election with PH and PN. The new seats require assembly approval and royal assent, which could expand palace influence and produce effects beyond election strategy. Francis E. Hutchinson, FULCRUM, May 21
South Asia
Marco Rubio Goes to India in Repair Mode. When Marco Rubio visits India on May 23–26, he will find an Indian foreign policy establishment and commentariat more wary of the United States than at any other time this century. Some of the reasons owing to India’s weariness include Donald Trump taking credit for the India-Pakistan ceasefire, hosting Pakistani general Asim Munir in the White House, imposing 50% tariffs on India, the perception within New Delhi that Trump is no longer interested in countering China or groupings such as the QUAD, and the impact the Iran war has had on India’s economy. Sadanand Dhume, Council on Foreign Relations, May 21
 | A guest post by
|