Asia Daily: May 15, 2025
China
China to U.S. ocean cargo bookings surge after tariff pause, Vizion says. U.S. bookings for container transport from China jumped 277% following a 90-day suspension of punitive tariffs. Container-tracking firm Vizion reported bookings surged to 21,530 TEUs from 5,709 the previous week. Hapag-Lloyd also saw a 50% increase in China-U.S. traffic. The pause reduced U.S. tariffs from 145% to 30% and Chinese duties from 125% to 10%, prompting immediate trade recovery. Lisa Baertlein, Reuters, May 14
China hopes for ‘golden decade’ in relations with Latin America and Caribbean. China has projected a “golden decade” for its ties with Latin America and the Caribbean following a summit with the CELAC bloc in Beijing. The two sides committed to cooperation in multiple sectors and voiced support for free trade and a more democratic international order. The meeting occurred amid intensifying U.S.-China rivalry, with Chinese officials positioning the partnership as a pillar of Global South solidarity. Orange Wang, South China Morning Post, May 14
Chinese businesses view tariff pause with caution and uncertainty. Chinese companies have resumed U.S. orders following the 90-day tariff reduction deal but remain wary of policy reversals. Some manufacturers, like kitchen utensil and auto parts firms, have restarted production or reengaged with U.S. clients. However, businesses cite ongoing uncertainty, reduced order volumes, and hesitancy to invest. Huizhong Wu, Associated Press, May 14
Japan
Japan to seek 3rd round of trade talks next week, sources say. Japan’s top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa may travel to Washington next week for a third round of tariff negotiations, contingent on progress in staff-level talks. Japan is preparing a proposal package including more U.S. corn and soy imports, shipbuilding cooperation, and revised auto inspection rules. However, a major gap remains over Japan’s demand for exemptions from U.S. auto and parts tariffs. Yoshifumi Takemoto, Reuters, May 14
GSDF to conduct first domestic long-range missile drill. Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Force will conduct its first long-range missile drill on domestic soil from June 24 to 29 in Hokkaido, using Type 88 surface-to-ship missiles. Roughly 300 personnel will take part, firing non-explosive missiles at sea targets up to 40 kilometers offshore. Japan is also reviewing future drills on Minami-Torishima and testing newer Type 12 variants. Daisuke Yajima, The Asahi Shimbun, May 14
LDP approves pension reform legislation. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party has approved draft legislation to reform the pension system during a General Council meeting, with plans to adopt the bill at a Cabinet session and submit it to the Diet before June. LDP and Komeito leaders agreed to push for the bill’s enactment within the current parliamentary term. The Japan Times, May 14
South Korea
DP's Lee leads PPP's Kim 49% to 27%: poll. Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung holds a 22-point lead over People Power Party’s Kim Moon-soo, with 49% support compared to Kim’s 27%, according to a National Barometer Survey conducted May 12–14. New Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok trailed with 7%. The poll found 57% of respondents favor a DP-led regime change in the June 3 election, while 32% support continued PPP governance. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, May 15
South Korean conservative presidential candidate Kim Moon-soo’s loyalty to impeached president alienates moderates. People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo’s continued support for impeached former President Yoon Suk Yeol is repelling moderate voters and complicating his election strategy. Kim has refused to expel Yoon or disavow his legacy, despite public backlash and internal dissent. He recently issued a partial apology for Yoon’s martial law but then appointed a key Yoon ally to his campaign team. Lee Hyo-jin, The Korea Times, May 14
Thailand
Deputy speaker to face EC on May 19. Deputy Senate Speaker Kriangkrai Srirak confirmed he will appear before the Election Commission on May 19 to address allegations tied to last year’s allegedly rigged Senate election. He denied offering benefits for votes, a violation under Section 77(1) of the 2018 Senate election law, and dismissed calls to suspend his duties. The EC has reviewed 391 of 585 complaints so far, with 151 finalized and 12 referred to court. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, May 14
Constitutional Court orders Tawee to step aside amid allegations of DSI abuse. Thailand’s Constitutional Court has ordered Justice Minister Tawee Sodsong to temporarily step down from overseeing the Department of Special Investigation while it reviews claims of misconduct tied to the 2024 Senate election probe. The court found sufficient grounds to question his role but did not suspend Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai. The Nation, May 14
Vietnam
NA to discuss mechanisms, policies for private economic development on May 15. Vietnam’s National Assembly is set to review a draft resolution aimed at fostering private sector growth by improving the business climate, expanding access to land and finance, and supporting science, digital transformation, and workforce development. Lawmakers will also consider revisions to laws on atomic energy, administrative violations, and legislative processes, along with a proposed law on participation in UN peacekeeping operations. Vietnam News, May 15
NA reviews draft law on participation in U.N. peacekeeping operations. Vietnam’s National Assembly reviewed a draft law composed of four chapters and 26 articles to establish a legal framework for its participation in U.N. peacekeeping operations. Chairman of the NA Committee for National Defence, Security, and External Affairs, Le Tan Toi, said the measure enhances Vietnam’s armed forces by enabling them to operate under complex geopolitical conditions while supporting national sovereignty and global cooperation. Vietnam News, May 15
Laos
Laos, United States celebrate groundbreaking of new Lao customs headquarters, training facility. Construction has begun on a new $8 million headquarters and training center for the Lao Customs Department in Vientiane, funded by the United States and implemented by the U.N. Office for Project Services. The facility will bolster Laos’s capacity to combat transnational crimes such as drug trafficking, wildlife smuggling, and money laundering. Kheuakham Chanlivong, The Laotian Times, May 15
Cambodia
Cambodia hosts China for their latest and largest joint military exercise. Cambodia and China began their largest-ever Golden Dragon joint military exercise on May 14, featuring land, sea, and air operations, including drones and robot dogs. The drills follow China’s expanded investment in Cambodia, including at Ream Naval Base, where a Chinese warship arrived Monday. Cambodian officials said the theme is counter-terrorism and humanitarian relief and denied any exclusive military access for China. Sopheng Cheang, Associated Press, May 14
Cambodia and China kick off Golden Dragon 2025 military drills. Cambodia and China launched their Golden Dragon 2025 joint military exercise on May 14, with operations across land, sea, and air at training sites in Kampong Chhnang and Preah Sihanouk provinces. The drills involve over 2,000 troops and focus on counter-terrorism and humanitarian relief. Equipment includes robot dogs, reconnaissance drones, AI tools, and warships. Hang Punreay, Khmer Times, May 14
Philippines
Germany, Philippines sign defence agreement. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro signed a defence cooperation arrangement in Berlin covering cybersecurity, logistics, defence armament, and UN peacekeeping. The agreement expands Manila’s defence partnerships beyond the U.S., following recent pacts with New Zealand and Japan. Mikhail Flores, Reuters, May 14
Senators gearing up for Sara's impeach trial. The Philippine Senate is preparing for Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial following the May 12 midterm elections. Senator Joel Villanueva confirmed the process will begin with setting the impeachment rules. Newly elected senators from the “Magic 12” will serve as senator judges, while outgoing senators, including Grace Poe and Nancy Binay, will exit the chamber. Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, May 15
PPCRV reports 80% voter turnout. The Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting reported an 80.32% turnout for the Philippines’ 2025 midterm elections, slightly below the 83% from the 2022 presidential race. PPCRV spokesperson Ana Singson called the figure significant for a non-presidential election, noting unusually early queues at polling stations. As of May 14, the PPCRV had received election returns from 97.34% of precincts. Aric John Sy Cua, The Manila Times, May 15
Indonesia
Prabowo urges Islamic unity, calls for concrete action on Palestine at PUIC summit. President Prabowo Subianto addressed delegates at the 19th Parliamentary Union of the OIC Member States conference in Jakarta, calling for unified efforts among Islamic nations to confront global challenges and provide tangible support for Palestine. He stated symbolic gestures are insufficient and urged member states to pursue real solutions. Celvin Moniaga Sipahutar and Alfida Rizky Febrianna, Jakarta Globe, May 14
Malaysia
Anwar extends East Asia Summit invite to Putin, calls potential visit a regional diplomatic breakthrough. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim extended an invitation to President Vladimir Putin to attend the East Asia Summit in October, calling the potential visit a milestone for Malaysia-Russia ties and regional diplomacy. Speaking in Moscow, Anwar reiterated Malaysia’s support for multilateralism, opposed unilateral actions, and outlined expanded cooperation in education, food security, energy, defence, and cybersecurity. Malay Mail, May 15
Russia eyes joint energy projects with Malaysia, including gas and nuclear cooperation. President Vladimir Putin announced plans for expanded joint ventures with Malaysia in natural gas and nuclear energy, highlighting existing partnerships between Petronas, Rosneft, and Gazprom. He noted Russia’s growing supply of oil, coal, and fertilizers to Malaysia, as well as collaboration in synthetic rubber production and halal meat exports. Malay Mail, May 15
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan and France eye deepening strategic partnership and expanding ties. Kazakhstan and France held talks to advance cooperation in political, economic, cultural, and educational spheres, building on agreements made during President Tokayev’s 2024 state visit to Paris. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to expanding the strategic partnership and strengthening ties between Astana and Paris. Zhanna Nurmaganbetova, Kazinform, May 14
Kazakhstan, China eye investments in grain, livestock, infrastructure. Kazakhstan and China are advancing a $1.1 billion grain processing project focused on starch sugar production, with a capacity of 700,000 tons annually. During meetings in Astana, officials also discussed livestock farming initiatives and CITIC’s potential role in reconstructing the Center-West highway under the Trans-Caspian Transport Route. Saniya Sakenova, The Astana Times, May 14
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan aims to finalize WTO membership process in 2025. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has instructed that Uzbekistan complete bilateral negotiations with the nine remaining countries and finalize the Working Party Report by year-end, aiming to conclude its WTO accession in 2025. Since 2023, the process has accelerated under his oversight, with four Working Party meetings and market access deals reached with 24 of 33 negotiating countries. Kun Uz, May 14
Tajikistan
Tajikistan decriminalises ‘liking’ social media posts deemed extremist. President Emomali Rakhmon has signed a law removing criminal penalties for “liking” or reacting to social media content labeled as extremist, including posts supporting terrorism or serious crimes. Over 1,500 people had been jailed under the 2018 law that penalized such online activity with sentences of up to 15 years. The legal change follows Rakhmon’s previous public criticism of the prosecutions. Mariya Gordeyeva and Lucy Papachristou, Reuters, May 14
Northeast Asia
Ghosts of FDI Past: Rethinking Poland’s China Strategy. Poland’s attitude toward Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) has shifted from early enthusiasm to growing suspicion amid rising geopolitical tensions and security concerns. Once a strong supporter of China’s “Go Global” initiative, Poland now scrutinizes Chinese capital, especially in sectors linked to critical infrastructure, technology, and national defense. The Hutchison Ports case in Gdynia illustrates how external pressure, particularly from the United States, has prompted Warsaw to reassess its economic vulnerabilities. Events like the 2024 military docking incident and Huawei’s dominance in telecommunications have highlighted Poland’s reactive and fragmented policy response. Despite limited overall Chinese investment, security warnings regarding firms such as Huawei and Nuctech reveal gaps in institutional oversight. Meanwhile, strategic ambiguity continues over whether Chinese investment in emerging sectors like battery manufacturing should be welcomed or restricted. With its EU Council presidency offering a platform for leadership, Poland is urged to build robust mechanisms for investment screening and strategic clarity, lest it remain dependent on foreign initiatives to address internal economic and security challenges. Joanna Nawrotkiewicz, Merics, May 14
The Beiping Model: How China Could Absorb Taiwan Without a War. China may seek to integrate Taiwan not through military invasion but by applying a strategy of gradual coercion and psychological resignation, inspired by its 1949 peaceful takeover of Beiping. This approach relies on political, economic, and social pressure to erode Taiwan’s resistance and present unification as inevitable rather than just. Tactics include grey-zone activities such as cyberattacks, disinformation, and economic entanglement aimed at normalizing tension and encouraging elite accommodation over confrontation. Key Taiwanese business and political actors already maintain deep cross-Strait ties, fostering an environment where strategic ambiguity and quiet compromise prevail. For Beijing, this method avoids the risks of military conflict, reduces international backlash, and upholds its narrative as a unifying force. Control over the information environment is central, enabling any political concession to be framed not as defeat but as pragmatic resolution. For allies like the United States and Australia, this scenario presents a unique challenge: how to deter or respond to political absorption rather than armed aggression. The Beiping model, subtle and prolonged, may not provoke a decisive international response but could still achieve Beijing’s objectives, making it a strategy that deserves close scrutiny. Vincent So, Lowy Institute, May 14
Assessing North Korea’s Wage Reform: 18 Months Later, Has It Improved Lives or Reinforced State Control? Eighteen months after North Korea’s landmark wage reform, which raised salaries tenfold, the overall impact has been negligible for most citizens, with inflation effectively nullifying any real gains. While elite government workers benefit from higher incomes, many laborers, particularly in rural and provincial areas, face wage delays and price hikes, exacerbating inequality. Initial public optimism has faded into cynicism, with many viewing the policy as a state maneuver to regain control over the expanding market economy. Despite wage hikes, the regime’s push to redirect consumption to state-run stores has faltered due to poor inventory and quality, further eroding public trust. The reforms are seen as part of an attempt to reassert a planned socialist economy and normalize state prices, but their uneven implementation, left to individual enterprises under the banner of “self-reliance,” has deepened disparities and social tension. Although framed as experimental, the policy exposes structural flaws such as supply shortages and price distortions. Ultimately, North Korea’s wage reform has failed to substantively improve livelihoods while reinforcing centralized control and highlighting the regime’s limited capacity to enact equitable economic change. Sang Yong Lee, 38 North, May 14
China’s Digital Silk Road in the Western Balkans: Threat or Opportunity? China’s Digital Silk Road (DSR) in the Western Balkans has generated divergent responses across the region, reflecting a complex balance between digital modernization and geopolitical risk. Serbia, China’s closest regional partner, has embraced Huawei-backed smart city and surveillance projects, sparking serious concerns over privacy, state surveillance, and sovereignty. In contrast, Albania, Kosovo, and North Macedonia have aligned with the US-led Clean Network Initiative, prioritizing security and Western integration over short-term Chinese investment. Kosovo stands out for its total rejection of DSR participation, favoring Western-backed infrastructure to avoid entanglement with Beijing. Montenegro, burdened by Chinese debt from an earlier infrastructure project, now treads cautiously in digital partnerships, seeking to align with EU cybersecurity standards. Bosnia and Herzegovina illustrates internal fragmentation: while Republika Srpska deepens ties with China, the Federation favors EU alignment, complicating a unified national policy. The region faces a strategic crossroads, whether to prioritize technological development or safeguard digital sovereignty. While Chinese investments offer rapid digital upgrades, the risks to democratic norms, data security, and geopolitical alignment are profound. Long-term stability, depends on choosing trusted partners, improving legal and cybersecurity frameworks, and avoiding dependency on unaccountable vendors. Arta Haxhixhemajli, China Observers, May 15
Southeast Asia
AI Can Sow the Seeds for ASEAN’s Food Security Future. Artificial intelligence offers ASEAN a vital opportunity to transform agriculture by increasing productivity, optimizing supply chains, and building climate resilience. With Southeast Asia vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and environmental threats, AI integration is essential to achieving regional food security. AI could increase global crop yields by up to 67 percent and reduce food prices nearly 50 percent by 2050. While initiatives like Thailand’s HandySense B-Farm and Vietnam’s AI Plant Doctor show progress, efforts remain fragmented and uneven across the region. Existing food security frameworks have yet to fully incorporate AI, despite its proven potential. Collaborative projects with China and South Korea point toward a growing recognition of AI’s value, but ASEAN still lacks a coordinated regional strategy. To address this, ASEAN should establish an AI agri-food working group, develop harmonized data platforms, and expand partnerships with governments, international bodies, and private sector innovators. Challenges remain in rural digital access, infrastructure costs, and digital literacy, particularly for smallholder farmers. Addressing these gaps will require inclusive, human-centered AI strategies backed by robust governance and education. A united approach to AI adoption can help bridge the digital divide, modernize agriculture, and strengthen regional resilience against future food crises. Mae Chow, East Asia Forum, May 15
Will Vietnam’s Governance Reforms Push It Towards Federalism? Vietnam is undertaking the most comprehensive governance overhaul since its economic reforms of the 1980s, focusing on streamlining government structures, decentralizing authority, and establishing a two-tier local administration. Though the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) does not explicitly aim to create a federalist state, the reforms display characteristics of federalism: a strong central government, layered local governance, and devolved power. The first phase has reduced ministries from 22 to 17 and merged key functions. The second phase, approved in April 2025, restructures Vietnam’s 63 provinces and 10,000 communes into 34 provinces and approximately 2,000 commune-level units, eliminating mid-tier administration. The final phase aims to increase autonomy for local governments, granting them greater control over policy, budgeting, infrastructure, and public services. Leaders such as General Secretary To Lam and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh have vocally supported this, urging central agencies to relinquish micro-management in favor of strategic-level oversight. While these changes improve efficiency and local responsiveness, they also risk enabling unchecked local corruption without corresponding institutional safeguards. Although reforms are framed as decentralization under one-party rule, they may inadvertently lay the groundwork for a quasi-federal structure, marking a profound shift in Vietnam’s statecraft. Hai Hong Nguyen, East Asia Forum, May 14
Opposing Autocracy in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia. Pro-democracy movements in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Thailand, and Myanmar are portrayed as interlinked stages in a broader regional struggle against authoritarianism, with activists metaphorically passing a baton in a relay of resistance. The 2014 Umbrella Movement in Hong Kong drew inspiration from Taiwan’s Sunflower Movement, with both protesting Beijing’s encroachments on local autonomy. Connections forged between activists at the time have endured, reflecting a shared commitment to democratic ideals. Hong Kong’s 2019 protests, marked by the use of umbrellas, symbolic songs, and defiant slogans, found echoes in Thailand’s and Myanmar’s subsequent uprisings, where youth mobilized with similar imagery and language. The essay draws parallels with global resistance traditions, referencing works by Timothy Garton Ash and Rebecca Solnit, and discusses the role of small publishing efforts like Thailand’s Sam Yan Press in disseminating ideas of resistance. Aki Elborzi, SOAS China Institute, May 14
Hajiji’s Dilemma and Anwar’s Gamble: The Political Fallout from Sabah’s Mining Scandal. Although Sabah Chief Minister Hajiji Noor has been cleared of direct involvement in a high-profile mining corruption scandal, lingering suspicions against members of his Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition could undermine their standing ahead of state elections. The controversy, triggered by video exposés alleging bribes to lawmakers, has tarnished GRS’s image and complicated Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s anti-corruption narrative. The scandal offers Anwar a political opening to expand Parti Keadilan Rakyat’s (PKR) presence in Sabah, potentially by fielding Deputy Minister Mustapha Sakmud as a chief minister candidate. Hajiji, reliant on federal backing, is expected to maintain alignment with Anwar’s Unity Government and may remove politically vulnerable GRS members implicated in the scandal. Meanwhile, a potential alliance with Barisan Nasional (BN) is being explored to fortify electoral prospects. The broader implications include heightened scrutiny over Sabah’s political autonomy, questions of selective prosecution, and the recalibration of federal-state relations. For Anwar, the scandal poses both a challenge to his reformist image and an opportunity to consolidate influence in Sabah’s fragmented political landscape. Arnold Puyok, FULCRUM, May 15
Nuclear Power in the Philippines: The Need to Address Institutional Gaps. As the Philippines renews efforts to integrate nuclear power into its energy mix, institutional, legal, and public trust challenges persist. The Philippine Development Plan 2023–2028 outlines nuclear capacity targets reaching 4,800 MW by 2050. However, decades of mistrust stemming from the controversial Bataan Nuclear Power Plant, never activated due to safety and corruption concerns, continue to hinder public support. The Marcos Jr. administration must confront unresolved regulatory, waste management, and safety issues. The Philippine Nuclear Research Institute lacks the mandate and resources to act as a fully capable nuclear regulator. Moreover, there is no comprehensive law addressing nuclear energy, nor has the country ratified key international nuclear safety conventions. The Electric Power Industry Reform Act of 2001 restricts direct state involvement in power generation, suggesting that incentivizing private sector investment is the most viable path forward. Without a robust legislative and regulatory framework, public trust will remain low. Despite these obstacles, private firms like Meralco are exploring scalable nuclear solutions, including small modular reactors. As other Southeast Asian countries also show renewed interest in nuclear energy, the Philippines’ experience shows the critical need for long-term commitment, legal reform, and communication to build a viable and trusted nuclear power program. Adoracion Navarro, FULCRUM, May 14
How Indonesia Became a Hotbed for Conglomerates – And What It Means for the Future of the Country. Indonesia’s economy is dominated by a handful of conglomerates whose roots trace back to the authoritarian Suharto era, when political patronage and deregulation enabled a small elite to amass extraordinary wealth and control across sectors. Families like the Hartonos, Salims, and Soerjadjajas built vertically integrated empires spanning banking, retail, manufacturing, mining, and e-commerce. Policies like the 1988 PAKTO deregulation facilitated insider lending and monopolistic behavior, consolidating market power through mechanisms that persist today. The dominance of these conglomerates has resulted in oligopolistic structures across key industries, suppressing competition, distorting credit markets, and contributing to deep structural inequality. Indonesia’s Competition Supervisory Commission (KPPU) operates reactively, lacking the authority or legal framework to proactively prevent mergers or regulate multi-sector corporate expansion. As President Prabowo Subianto’s administration considers further deregulation in response to international trade pressures, concerns are mounting that conglomerate power will be further entrenched. Without strong antitrust reforms or more robust economic regulation, Indonesia risks long-term inefficiency, higher consumer prices, and deepening inequality. While divestiture is politically sensitive, the current trajectory is unsustainable and that meaningful reforms are essential to restoring competitive balance and inclusive economic development. Rafa Tjipta, Sino-Southeast Initiative, May 14
Oceania
Pacific Health Systems: Breaking the Aid Dependency Cycle
Pacific nations are facing a health crisis compounded by chronic underfunding, overreliance on foreign aid, and poor local accountability. Recent cuts to US aid, including critical HIV/AIDS programs in Fiji and Papua New Guinea, have exposed the fragility of externally dependent health systems. While Australia has redirected $119 million in emergency support, long-term solutions require a strategic shift. Many Pacific countries suffer some of the world’s worst health outcomes, with non-communicable diseases responsible for up to 75% of deaths and maternal care deteriorating. Health spending remains significantly below global averages, leaving countries unprepared for crises like Covid-19, which severely hampered recovery due to delays in vaccine and treatment access. To achieve sustainability, experts urge a move from short-term projects to systemic reforms, including stronger governance, local workforce training, and robust information infrastructure. Crucially, co-developed donor exit strategies and health sovereignty are emphasized as pillars for long-term resilience. Samoa and Tonga are already piloting post-aid planning, offering models for regional replication. Without a structural overhaul, Pacific health systems risk continuing cycles of dependency and vulnerability. Pala Leka, Lowy Institute, May 14