China
Trump arrives in China with tech titans and top aides for high-stakes Xi summit. U.S. President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing with senior aides and business leaders including Jensen Huang, Elon Musk and Tim Cook for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The visit began with a high-protocol airport welcome and comes amid disputes over tariffs, export controls, AI, Taiwan and security issues. Trade is expected to dominate, with both sides seeking stability and concessions. Josephine Ma and Orange Wang, South China Morning Post, May 13
U.S. Senate warns of China’s nuclear capabilities hours before Xi-Trump summit. A U.S. Senate hearing warned that China is rapidly expanding its nuclear capabilities shortly before President Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Senator Roger Wicker said Beijing had built missile silos, expanded mobile and submarine missile forces and invested in long-range bombers. China has rejected joining U.S.-Russia arms control, saying its arsenal remains smaller. Yuanyue Dang, South China Morning Post, May 13
Trump, Xi to weigh tariff cuts on $30 billion of imports in managed trade push. The U.S. and China are expected to consider a managed trade mechanism covering about $30 billion in non-sensitive goods on each side. The plan would reduce tariffs and trade barriers without requiring China to alter its economic model, while national security-related export controls and broader tariffs remain in place. Energy and agriculture are likely areas of focus. David Lawder, Reuters, May 13
Japan
CRA accepts proposals on imperial family membership revision. The opposition Centrist Reform Alliance accepted two government expert panel proposals aimed at maintaining enough imperial family members. The party backed allowing female imperial family members to retain status after marriage and accepted, with conditions, the adoption of male descendants from former imperial branches. The decision clears the way for fuller parliamentary talks on revising the Imperial House Law. The Japan Times, May 13
Draft emergency clause presented for constitutional amendment. The Lower House secretariat presented draft constitutional provisions that would allow Diet members’ terms to be extended when large disasters, epidemics, civil unrest or armed attacks make national elections difficult. The draft would let the Cabinet declare an election difficulty situation with Diet approval and issue emergency orders if lawmaking cannot wait, though opposition parties remain wary. Hayato Jinno and Ryutaro Abe, The Asahi Shimbun, May 13
South Korea
FM Cho Hyun hosts Chinese, Japanese ambassadors to boost trilateral cooperation. Foreign Minister Cho Hyun met Chinese Ambassador Dai Bing, Japanese Ambassador Koichi Mizushima and senior Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat officials to promote closer Seoul-Beijing-Tokyo cooperation. Cho said the secretariat remained an important framework for regional peace, stability and practical national interests, and reaffirmed South Korea’s support for its work. Woo Jae-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, May 13
Seoul mulling possible role in U.S. freedom of navigation initiative in Hormuz: security adviser. South Korea is reviewing a possible role in the U.S.-led Maritime Freedom Construct to help restore navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac said Seoul is studying phased participation after an apparent attack on the HMM Namu, while leaving open various levels of military involvement and saying no perpetrator has been identified. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, May 13
Lee meets Bessent, Chinese vice premier ahead of U.S.-China summit. President Lee Jae Myung held separate talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng before the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing. Lee discussed critical minerals, supply chains and foreign exchange markets with Bessent, and asked He to expand South Korea-China cooperation in the economy, industry, trade and culture. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, May 13
North Korea
Vietnamese FM visits N. Korea as special envoy for country’s leader. Vietnamese Foreign Minister Le Hoai Trung arrived in North Korea as a special envoy for Vietnam’s leader To Lam. KCNA did not disclose the visit’s purpose, but Trung is expected to brief officials on Vietnam’s recent political developments. The trip follows To Lam’s visit to Pyongyang last year and comes after South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s visit to Vietnam. Chang Dong-woo, Yonhap News Agency, May 13
N. Korea’s Kim calls for strengthening mortar, howitzer capabilities. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called for strengthening mortar and howitzer forces during inspections of key munitions factories. KCNA said Kim reviewed first-half production plans and ordered work on high-precision multipurpose bullets, a specialized artillery production complex and a small-arms factory. The inspection aligns with North Korea’s five-year defense development plan set at a February party congress. Kim Soo-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, May 12
Thailand
Thai growth likely to top 3% over next 1-2 years on new investments, minister says. Thailand’s finance minister said economic growth is likely to exceed 3% over the next one to two years, supported by new investments. First-quarter investments rose 18% annually to 260 billion baht, while applications reached 1 trillion baht. The central bank said it was not rushing to raise rates and viewed the current policy rate as appropriate for recovery. Orathai Sriring and Chayut Setboonsarng, Reuters, May 13
Myanmar
Myanmar’s 100-day blockade of Chinese imports sparks fresh chaos. Myanmar’s military-backed regime has intensified seizures of Chinese imports under its “100-day plan,” disrupting trade along the Muse-Mandalay highway. Checkpoints are confiscating consumer goods, foodstuffs, appliances and construction materials that pass through border zones controlled by the MNDAA. Traders warn the restrictions are causing shortages, higher prices, black-market activity and pressure on domestic production. The Irrawaddy, May 13
Cambodia
Cambodia refutes Thai media claim of border gunfire. Cambodia’s Ministry of National Defence rejected a Thai media report alleging Cambodian troops fired 11 shots near the O’Smach International Border Checkpoint. Spokesperson Lt. Gen. Maly Socheata called the claim false and misleading. The Thai report also acknowledged Thai soldiers fired warning shots to deter a Western national near the checkpoint. Cambodianess, May 13
Philippines
Gunshots fired in standoff at Philippine Senate over ICC suspect. Gunshots broke out at the Philippine Senate after Sen. Ronald dela Rosa, wanted by the International Criminal Court, urged supporters to block his arrest and transfer to The Hague. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr called for calm and said no government personnel were involved. Dela Rosa remained under Senate protection and challenged the ICC’s jurisdiction. Nestor Corrales, Karen Lema, Eloisa Lopez, Mikhail Flores and Martin Petty, Reuters, May 13
Dela Rosa rejects surrender, appeals to military for help. Sen. Ronald Dela Rosa rejected calls to surrender and appealed to fellow uniformed personnel and Philippine Military Academy classmates for peaceful support against possible transfer to the ICC. He remained holed up in the Senate after its leadership blocked efforts to serve an ICC arrest warrant tied to Rodrigo Duterte’s drug war. The new Senate leadership said arrest would require a Philippine court order. Javier Joe Ismael, Catherine S. Valente and Red Mendoza, The Manila Times, May 13
VP Sara’s husband sues impeachment complainants, Madriaga. Lawyer Manases Carpio filed a P7.3 million civil suit against several people behind an impeachment complaint against his wife, Vice President Sara Duterte, including Ramil Madriaga. Carpio alleged perjurious statements damaged his legal practice and reputation and formed part of a coordinated black propaganda campaign meant to weaken Duterte politically before the 2028 presidential election. Red Mendoza, The Manila Times, May 13
Indonesia
Prabowo pushes for regulatory reform to create jobs. President Prabowo Subianto called for regulatory reform and faster business licensing to support job creation and strengthen Indonesia’s economy. He ordered a deregulation task force to simplify overlapping rules after receiving business complaints about permit delays. Prabowo said compliant entrepreneurs should receive government support, while officials should improve efficiency across ministries and institutions. ANTARA News, May 13
Taiwan
U.S. affirms commitments amid Trump's remarks on Taiwan arms sales. The U.S. State Department reiterated Washington’s commitments to Taiwan after President Donald Trump said he would discuss U.S. arms sales with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The issue raised questions about the Six Assurances, which include a U.S. pledge not to consult Beijing on Taiwan arms sales. Taiwan officials said they were not concerned about a U.S. policy change. Elaine Hou and Joseph Yeh, Focus Taiwan, May 13
Ahead of Trump-Xi summit, China warns on U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. China renewed its opposition to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan ahead of President Donald Trump’s summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Beijing said Taiwan was the “core of China’s core interests,” while Taipei warned China could use Taiwan’s reduced defence budget to pressure Trump to limit U.S. support. Taiwan’s government rejected China’s sovereignty claims. Joe Cash, Ben Blanchard, Yimou Lee and Ann Wang, Reuters, May 13
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan having more problems with Rosatom. Kazatomprom filed a complaint against Rosatom-linked Stepnogorsk Mining and Chemical Combine, alleging it failed to meet obligations under the Budenovskoye uranium mining joint venture. The claims include missed financial contributions to an environmental remediation fund and failure to meet a 2024 extraction quota. SGCC disputes the complaint, while the joint venture remains profitable despite liabilities exceeding assets. Eurasianet, May 13
Kazakhstan aims to increase non-commodity exports by more than a quarter by 2030. Kazakhstan plans to raise non-commodity exports to $52 billion by 2030, up from about $41 billion in 2025. Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov said the target is tied to trade policy, free trade agreements, the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route and efforts to improve investment appeal. Foreign direct investment rose 14.4% to $20.5 billion. Dmitry Pokidaev, The Times of Central Asia, May 13
Turkic states to focus on artificial intelligence at Kazakhstan summit. Kazakhstan will host an informal Organization of Turkic States summit in Turkistan focused on AI, digital development and economic cooperation. Leaders are expected to discuss digital innovation for growth, public services and regional connectivity, along with Turkic digital platforms. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is also expected to visit Astana for bilateral talks and a business forum. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, May 13
Trump - Xi Meeting
Trump and Xi Should Tackle a Previously Impossible AI Conversation. U.S.-China AI diplomacy should focus on shared extreme risks rather than chip concessions or broad détente. Frontier models can expose cybersecurity flaws and may enable cross-border harm as Chinese systems improve. Dialogue should prioritize testing standards, red-team practices, and safeguards while protecting sensitive methods, dual-use knowledge, intellectual property, and security information. Cooperation between governments and frontier developers can support a foundation for wider AI risk management. Scott Singer, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 13
Xi and Trump set for a second-best outcome in Beijing. Xi and Trump are expected to seek stability, not breakthroughs, at their Beijing summit, with Taiwan, trade, Iran, arms sales, tariffs, export controls, AI, and Jimmy Lai on the agenda. Analysts expect no grand bargain, but a second-best outcome in which neither side rejects the other’s demands. A future Xi visit to the United States could create guardrails and shape expectations for a tense bilateral year of rivalry management. Sim Tze Wei, ThinkChina, May 13
The Trump-Xi summit will expose a dysfunctional duo. U.S.-China relations are defined by mutual vulnerability rather than leadership, with trade, rare earths, technology sanctions, Taiwan, Iran, AI, climate, and pandemic risks all exposed. The Beijing summit is expected to produce limited results because both leaders view cooperation as weakness and dominance as the goal. Predictable trade rules, continued Taiwan support, and dialogue on global risks would help, but suspicion is set to define the G2 dynamic. The Economist, May 7
The Promise and Peril of U.S.-China Summitry. Xi approaches summitry through long preparation, historical memory, party discipline, and suspicion of U.S. leverage. Trump’s unpredictability raises risks if understandings are not written with care. Iran, Taiwan, trade imbalances, critical minerals, sanctions, fentanyl, and AI may shape the talks. Limited stabilization is possible, but unclear wording, competing interpretations, or inflated claims of progress could worsen a multidecade contest between two powers. Robert D. Hormats, Foreign Affairs, May 13
Both Trump and Xi Overestimate Themselves. Trump and Xi meet amid myths about national strength that obscure weakness in both systems. Washington retains advantages in AI, finance, space, and computing, yet Trump’s politics have damaged alliances, institutions, and U.S. soft power. China has expanded military and industrial capacity, yet corruption, subsidies, slower growth, and lower incomes expose limits. Both powers risk misreading a fragmenting world where middle powers and demographics are shifting influence beyond their control. Howard W. French, Foreign Policy, May 13
Trump in Beijing: Why the game stays the same for Europe. Europeans should not expect Trump’s Beijing summit to clarify U.S.-China strategy or produce a grand bargain. Washington is caught between Trump’s dealmaking instincts and China hawks, creating wary détente after rare earth pressure blunted the trade war. Europe should avoid deal anxiety, limit hopes for transatlantic coordination, and focus on Chinese export pressure, dependencies, coercion risks, and industrial vulnerability as trade data signal a worsening China shock for Europe itself. Ayse Batur, European Council on Foreign Relations, May 13
East Asia
America Has Lost Its Leverage Over China. Washington’s diplomacy has moved leverage toward Beijing by accepting Chinese influence over export controls, prioritizing summit optics, and separating China talks from alliance strategy. The Busan deal traded relief from rare earth controls for U.S. restraint across security tools. Ambiguous signals on Taiwan and regional commitments may invite Chinese tests, raise escalation risks, and weaken U.S. capacity to defend strategic interests on its own terms in future crises and bargains. Henrietta Levin, Foreign Affairs, May 13
A U.S. Campaign to Exploit Beijing’s Weaknesses. U.S. competition with China should use an offensive hybrid warfare campaign that exploits CCP weaknesses, including narrative control, corruption, Xi Jinping’s personal rule, paranoia about U.S. intentions, and weak partnerships. Operations could expose hypocrisy, release factual data, target illicit activity, and exploit predictable responses. Success would require risk tolerance, coordination across government and partners, flexible programs, measurable goals, and scale tied to long-term national security outcomes against Beijing’s regional ambitions. Nicholas Harrington, CSIS, May 13
A dual-track approach to critical minerals can’t overcome coercion concerns. Western reliance on Chinese critical minerals cannot be resolved through separate security and green supply tracks because most minerals serve both civilian and defense uses. Chinese processing dominance gives Beijing leverage over allied industries, while cheap green inputs weaken non-Chinese refiners. Managed decoupling, higher costs, binding targets, and investment in allied midstream capacity are presented as necessary to reduce coercion risks and strategic vulnerability. Alvin Camba, East Asia Forum, May 13
Beijing’s Quest for Uniformity May Be Its Achilles’ Heel. Beijing’s drive for cultural uniformity weakens the soft power it needs for global leadership. New ethnic unity laws, Mandarin schooling, religious Sinicization, and Tibetan boarding schools seek to reshape minority identity around CCP control. Tibetans, Uyghurs, Mongolians, and religious communities face pressure on language, belief, and culture. Such coercion may deepen resistance, erode legitimacy, and limit China’s appeal beyond markets, supply chains, and infrastructure as a model for power projection. Lobsang Sangay, Foreign Policy, May 13
China may be the biggest winner from UAE’s OPEC exit. UAE’s departure from OPEC reflects rivalry with Saudi Arabia, idle production capacity, wartime costs, and a push to monetize oil before demand peaks. Higher output could aid China through cheaper crude, yet Hormuz constraints limit near-term flows. The larger opportunity lies in RMB settlement for Murban contracts, but Beijing must balance Abu Dhabi’s agility with Riyadh’s scale and regional weight during a volatile Gulf energy transition and rivalry cycle. Jing Lin, ThinkChina, May 13
China's demographic decline is not the disaster many fear. China’s shrinking population is framed as a managed transition, not an existential crisis. Internal migration is concentrating workers in coastal hubs while rural decline may support larger farms and productivity gains. A more educated workforce, stronger technology, and Belt and Road ties with younger economies give Beijing tools for adaptation. Fertility timing still matters because late recovery would raise pressure on workers and fiscal resources. Lauren Johnston, Nikkei Asia, May 13
Tracing Russian Linkages in North Korea’s Expanding Nuclear Complex. North Korea’s nuclear expansion is linked to deeper military cooperation with Russia, including possible submarine propulsion transfers, uranium support, and scientific training. The Ursa Major case, Akula class reactor compatibility, and Russian geology programs indicate channels for technical aid. Russian backing could shorten naval nuclear timelines, expand enrichment needs, and complicate Asia Pacific security. Coordinated pressure on Moscow and engagement with Pyongyang are framed as paths to broader regional stability. Anton Ponomarenko, 38 North, May 13
Southeast Asia
ASEAN central banks need new tools for new risks. ASEAN faces connected shocks from energy disruption, floods, food pressures, and climate risks that threaten inflation control, fiscal capacity, and financial stability. The Philippines’ chairship should use the ASEAN Finance Track to advance central bank refinancing for ASEAN Power Grid projects and regional systemic risk buffers. These tools would mobilize private capital, protect lending during compound crises, and support energy security, climate resilience, and welfare across Southeast Asian economies systems. Julia Bingler, Matthew Poggi, East Asia Forum, May 13
Nuclear Energy Renaissance in Southeast Asia: A Role for China? Southeast Asia is weighing nuclear power as demand rises from industry, data centres, AI, energy insecurity, and climate goals. China offers proven Hualong One reactors, state financing, domestic supply chains, training, fuel support, and experience from its reactor buildout. Its thorium progress adds appeal for developing states. Partner choices will shape decades of dependence, so ASEAN must balance Chinese capacity with strategic flexibility and indigenous expertise across future energy systems. Zha Daojiong, FULCRUM, May 13
South Asia
Pakistan’s New Logic of Limited War May Not Keep War Limited. Pakistan is adapting after the 2025 India crisis and 2026 Iran war by building conventional strike options, multi-domain integration, joint command structures, and broader crisis management. New rocket forces aim to control escalation below the nuclear threshold, yet usable precision tools may make limited war more likely. Energy shocks, maritime risks, western border pressures, and third-party effects complicate deterrence, raising doubts about keeping future conflicts contained. Muhammad Faisal, Sahar Khan, and Haleema Saadia, War on the Rocks, May 13
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