Asia Daily: May 14, 2025
China
China reasserts India border claims with fresh list of ‘standard’ place names. China has issued a new list of 27 renamed locations in Arunachal Pradesh—15 mountains, five residential areas, four passes, two rivers, and one lake—despite recent efforts to ease border tensions with India. The Chinese government claims the region, which it calls Zangnan, as part of Tibet. India’s Ministry of External Affairs rejected the move as baseless. This marks the fifth such list China has released since 2017. Xinlu Liang, South China Morning Post, May 14
China to present new peacekeeping commitments to U.N., defence chief says. Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun informed U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres that China will submit new peacekeeping commitments and support reforms to the United Nations’ peacekeeping operations. Dong stated that China maintains a consistent role in U.N. missions and intends to increase its participation. Liz Lee, Reuters, May 13
China to adjust tariff rates on U.S. goods from May 14, says finance ministry. China will lower its tariffs on U.S. goods to 10% for 90 days starting May 14 at 12:01 p.m. local time. The move reduces the 34% duties imposed last month and cancels an additional 91% rate from subsequent rounds. The finance ministry said the decision aligns with producer and consumer expectations and will facilitate trade and economic activity between the two countries. Beijing Newsroom, Reuters, May 13
Japan
Gold investments booming in Japan as U.S. tariffs stir economic fears. Gold investment in Japan has surged as investors seek a safe haven amid concerns over global economic instability triggered by steep U.S. tariffs. Tokyo gold prices reached a record high in yen terms, rising 15% since January. Purchases of bullion, coins, and gold-linked investment trusts have sharply increased, particularly under the NISA tax-free savings program. Secondhand gold jewelry sales are also rising, driven by younger buyers. Kyodo News, May 13
Consumption tax set to dominate Upper House election debate. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party faces growing pressure from opposition groups to cut the consumption tax ahead of the July Upper House election. While the CDP and DPP propose reducing or suspending the food tax rate, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and party leaders argue for fiscal stability. Internal LDP divisions and coalition partner Komeito’s pro-cut stance add to tensions. The current tax accounts for 32% of revenue. Gabriele Ninivaggi, The Japan Times, May 13
South Korea
Ex-first lady says not to comply with prosecution summons this week: sources. Former South Korean first lady Kim Keon Hee has declined to appear before prosecutors this week, citing concerns that the investigation into her alleged influence-peddling could affect public opinion ahead of the June 3 presidential election. Her legal team submitted a letter to the Seoul Central District Prosecutors Office, referencing potential media speculation. She is accused of election law and political fund violations linked to the 2022 by-election. Kim Na-young, Yonhap News Agency, May 13
Presidential candidates clash in right-wing stronghold. South Korea’s leading presidential candidates campaigned in the conservative southeast, with Democratic Party’s Lee Jae-myung appealing to pragmatism over partisanship and proposing economic revitalization through renewable energy in Gumi. People Power Party’s Kim Moon-soo focused on legacy and regional loyalty, invoking Park Chung-hee’s industrial record. New Reform Party’s Lee Jun-seok targeted younger voters in Daegu. Son Ji-hyoung, The Korea Herald, May 13
Lee Jae-myung widens lead as Kim Moon-soo struggles to unite fractured conservatives. Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung leads the presidential race with 52.1% support, while People Power Party’s Kim Moon-soo trails at 31.1%, hindered by internal divisions and his ties to impeached former President Yoon Suk Yeol. Senior conservatives, including Han Duck-soo and Han Dong-hoon, have distanced themselves from Kim, who also faces rejection from Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok. Bahk Eun-ji, The Korea Times, May 13
North Korea
N. Korea recalls corrupt security agents from Russia, but punishment unlikely. North Korea has recalled state security agents from Russia amid corruption allegations, including extortion and misuse of foreign currency. Despite a Ministry of State Security directive threatening strict consequences, sources say the agents—linked to elite regime families—will likely avoid serious punishment. Officials criticized the government's inconsistency, noting similar past cases ended without accountability. Lee Ho Jin, Daily NK, May 14
N. Korean soldiers bribe commanders for coveted ‘work brigade’ assignments. North Korean soldiers are paying bribes to secure spots in military work brigades, which offer looser discipline and allow time outside barracks. A Seventh Corps officer in South Hamgyong Province is under investigation for accepting $500 from a soldier for such an assignment. Soldiers often ask families for money, viewing brigade duty as a reprieve from harsh conditions. Eun Seol, Daily NK, May 14
N. Korea's Kim supervises special operations' drills, urges full preparations for war. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un oversaw tactical drills involving special operations and tank units, emphasizing that war readiness is the military’s top priority. He described the anti-imperialist class front as the most important mission, referencing North Korea’s troop deployment to Russia as part of its mutual defense treaty with Moscow. Kim Soo-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, May 13
India
India disputes Trump’s claim that trade incentives led to the India-Pakistan ceasefire. India rejected U.S. President Donald Trump’s assertion that trade concessions prompted the ceasefire with Pakistan, stating that no trade discussions occurred during talks with U.S. officials. The ceasefire followed days of cross-border strikes over a militant attack in Kashmir. Trump claimed he offered trade benefits as leverage, but India reaffirmed that Kashmir matters are strictly bilateral. Pakistan, meanwhile, expelled an Indian diplomat over alleged misconduct. Rajesh Roy, Associated Press, May 13
India expels Pakistan diplomat as war of words simmers in place of fighting. India expelled a Pakistani diplomat on May 13 for alleged misconduct, intensifying post-ceasefire tensions following deadly cross-border strikes. While both countries have agreed to uphold the truce, skirmishes persist along the Line of Control. Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned of future retaliation against “terrorist hideouts,” prompting sharp criticism from Islamabad. Al Jazeera, May 13
Thailand
1,200 suspects in Senate probe: DSI. Thailand’s Department of Special Investigation is investigating around 1,200 individuals for suspected money laundering tied to vote-rigging in the 2024 Senate election. The probe, conducted with the Election Commission, targets financial transactions linked to an illegal organization. Six senators have already been summoned. Charges may include election law violations and offenses under the Anti-Money Laundering Act. Wassayos Ngamkham, Bangkok Post, May 13
Coalition still united, insists PM. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra dismissed speculation about a possible House dissolution and confirmed that the ruling coalition remains intact. She rejected claims that the Bhumjaithai Party may oppose the 2026 budget bill due to frustrations over the Senate vote-rigging investigation. Paetongtarn emphasized that budget drafting is a collective responsibility and denied reports of a rift involving her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, and Bhumjaithai’s Newin Chidchob. Mongkol Bangprapa, Bangkok Post, May 13
Vietnam
NA deputies continue to discuss amendments to Constitution on Wednesday. Vietnam’s National Assembly held a plenary session to review proposed amendments to the 2013 Constitution, including updates on the Vietnam Fatherland Front’s role, trade unions, and the administrative structure. Changes seek to redefine local governance and affirm worker representation in line with national reform goals. Vietnam News, May 13
Myanmar
Schools closed in resistance stronghold after deadly assault by Myanmar junta. All schools in Depayin Township, Sagaing Region, have shut down after a junta airstrike on May 12 killed at least 20 students and two teachers in Oe Htein Twin village. Victims were buried the same day, with many bodies disfigured beyond recognition. Local resistance officials confirmed the total death toll at 22, calling the attack one of the deadliest against civilians since the coup. Myanmar Now, May 13
Myanmar military retakes battalion base from resistance, Karen fighters in Bago Region. The Myanmar military recaptured the Light Infantry Battalion 598 base in Shwegyin Township on May 12, three days after it was seized by the Karen National Union and allied People’s Defence Forces. The junta deployed around 500 troops to reclaim the site, prompting resistance forces to withdraw after securing remaining equipment. Resistance units remain positioned in nearby areas amid continued hostilities. Saw Reh, Myanmar Now, May 13
Cambodia
Cambodia reaches over 95% of electricity coverage ahead of projections. Cambodia has surpassed World Bank projections by reaching 95.24% household electrification and 99.15% village access to electricity, driven by two decades of infrastructure development led by Electricité du Cambodge and government leadership. Minister Keo Rottanak credited peace and political continuity for the gains. However, critics note ongoing issues with reliability and affordability, especially in areas served by private operators. Hang Punreay, Khmer Times, May 12
Cambodia proposes Japanese SEZ investment. Cambodia has urged Japanese automotive supplier Yazaki Group to consider developing a special economic zone (SEZ) to boost Japanese investment. During a May 12 meeting, Cambodian Investment Board official Chea Vuthy encouraged Yazaki to expand beyond its existing operations in Koh Kong. Trade between Cambodia and Japan exceeded $832 million in early 2025, with Cambodia maintaining a surplus. Hin Pisei, The Phnom Penh Post, May 12
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan sends over 26 tons of free seed to Afghan farmers. Uzbekistan has delivered more than 26 tons of certified agricultural seeds to Afghanistan, including cotton, rice, mung beans, vegetables, and melons, as part of efforts to boost regional cooperation and food security. Trade between the two nations reached $1.1 billion in 2024, with over 550 Afghan-invested businesses operating in Uzbekistan. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, May 13
Uzbekistan–Kyrgyzstan: interparliamentary cooperation reaches new level. Uzbekistan’s Legislative Speaker Nuriddin Ismailov met with Kyrgyz Deputy Speaker Nurlanbek Azigaliyev on May 13 to advance interparliamentary ties amid deepening bilateral relations. The two sides praised President Mirziyoyev’s diplomacy and discussed legislative exchange, public diplomacy, and regional development. Uzbekistan Daily, May 13
Uzbekistan and China introduce visa-free regime from June 1, x2025. Uzbekistan and China will implement a mutual visa-free travel agreement starting June 1, 2025, allowing citizens to enter, exit, and transit each other’s territories for up to 30 days per trip and a maximum of 90 days within 180 days. The agreement excludes travel for employment, education, media, and other regulated activities, and does not apply to Hong Kong and Macau. Uzbekistan Daily, May 13
Tajikistan
Tajikistan and South Korea hold inter-MFA political consultations. Tajikistan and South Korea conducted inter-ministerial political consultations on May 13, led by senior officials from both countries’ foreign ministries. The discussions focused on expanding bilateral cooperation, strengthening legal frameworks and enhancing economic ties, and both sides explored collaboration under the “Central Asia–Republic of Korea” Cooperation Forum. AKIpress, May 13
Kyrgyzstan
President dismisses Avazbek Atakhanov from post of ambassador to Pakistan. President Sadyr Japarov has signed a decree dismissing Avazbek Atakhanov from his role as Kyrgyzstan’s ambassador to Pakistan. No reasons were given for the decision. Atakhanov was appointed in September 2024 after serving as deputy foreign minister and previously held diplomatic posts in Iran, Qatar, and Afghanistan. Aizhan Kerimova, 24KG, May 13
Northeast Asia
Japan’s UN Funding Cut Leaves Women’s Rights in the Lurch. Japan’s withdrawal of financial support from the UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women in January 2025 has spotlighted its strategic disengagement from global gender equality commitments. Triggered by a non-binding recommendation urging reform of Japan’s male-only imperial succession law, the decision reflects broader reluctance to submit to external scrutiny. Despite historical precedence for female emperors and strong domestic public support for gender-inclusive succession, Japan’s leadership remains resistant, invoking cultural tradition. Additional gender equity issues persist: Japan mandates shared surnames for married couples, imposes restrictive abortion laws, and refuses to ratify the Optional Protocol to the Convention, which would enable individual complaints and investigative authority. Though Japan has championed women’s empowerment globally under banners such as “womenomics” and the Women, Peace and Security agenda, these efforts serve symbolic and diplomatic ends rather than transformative domestic reform. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s emphasis on gender equality functioned more as soft power projection than substantive policy change. Japan’s conservative leadership now signals a broader global trend: treating gender rights as foreign impositions rather than integral to democratic accountability. With Japan ranking 118th in the 2024 Global Gender Gap Index (the lowest among G7 nations), the funding cut exemplifies a retreat from genuine reform. To maintain credibility as a global advocate of women’s rights, Japan must reconcile its international rhetoric with domestic realities. Ming Gao, East Asia Forum, May 14
Understanding the Temporary De-Escalation of the U.S.–China Trade War. On May 12, 2025, the Trump administration announced a mutual rollback of punitive trade measures with China, reducing U.S. tariffs from 145 to 30 percent and Chinese tariffs from 125 to 10 percent. Additionally, China relaxed its critical minerals export restrictions. While this development may ease inflation and support investment in the short term, it fails to reverse the broader damage caused by prolonged tariff impositions, namely, disrupted supply chains, economic uncertainty, and diminished U.S. global credibility. Despite the reduction, tariffs remain above optimal levels, particularly those affecting intermediate goods, which continue to inflate domestic production costs without advancing strategic aims. The agreement also includes only a temporary 90-day pause, leaving firms uncertain and cautious about long-term planning. Broader implications of this erratic trade posture include: alienated allies, adversaries are advantaged, and supply chains being restructured away from the U.S. due to unpredictability. Furthermore, recent reversals raise doubts about the administration’s ability to maintain credible deterrence. Though the rollback may signal renewed attention to consumer welfare, the overarching policy remains politically driven, with high economic and reputational costs. The temporary reprieve demonstrates the growing burden of trade policy volatility on U.S. resilience, investment, and leadership. Philip A. Luck, CSIS, May 12
Southeast Asia
A Critical Mineral Match for Australia and Indonesia. Indonesia aims to position critical mineral cooperation at the forefront of its evolving economic relationship with Australia. As the world’s leading nickel supplier, Indonesia’s downstreaming strategy, focused on expanding domestic mineral processing and battery manufacturing, is central to its goal of achieving high-income status by 2045. Australia, the top global producer of lithium, shares complementary resources with Indonesia, creating natural synergies in electric vehicle supply chains. In response, the Albanese government initiated a collaborative framework in 2023, supporting joint research on EV infrastructure and battery recycling, and aligning with subnational agreements with Indonesian authorities. Despite optimism, challenges persist. Australia faces limitations in technology, skilled labor, and foreign investment compared to China’s robust role in Indonesia’s nickel development. Conversely, Indonesia lacks advanced processing technology and a skilled workforce but can contribute financing, as demonstrated by over A$3 billion in Australian mining acquisitions since 2016. Joint ventures, akin to those in Indonesia’s nickel sector, could offer a model for cooperation in lithium. However, depressed commodity prices and concerns about foreign investment tied to Chinese supply chains necessitate caution. While expectations should remain measured, Indonesia’s strong policy push and Australia’s resource base suggest a path forward, particularly in lithium, provided mutual capacities and limitations are clearly understood. Robert Walker and Hilman Palaon, Lowy Institute, May 13
A Reinvigorated BIMSTEC Hopes to Avoid Regional Pitfalls. The 6th BIMSTEC summit held in Bangkok on April 4, 2025 marked a renewed effort to advance regional cooperation among its seven members—Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. After a seven-year hiatus, the summit adopted key institutional reforms, including the Agreement on Maritime Transport Cooperation, the Bangkok Vision 2030, and a new rules-based framework for BIMSTEC operations. Leaders endorsed a roadmap aimed at improving connectivity, trade, and human security across the Bay of Bengal. With SAARC effectively paralyzed, BIMSTEC is emerging as India’s preferred multilateral platform, aligning with its 'Neighbourhood First,' 'Act East,' and 'SAGAR' policies. Prime Minister Narendra Modi proposed a 21-point action plan, which includes digital payment integration through India’s UPI system. Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra revived calls for a BIMSTEC free trade agreement, long stalled since 2004. Yet major hurdles persist. Delays in infrastructure projects like the India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway show BIMSTEC's chronic execution problems, worsened by instability in Myanmar. Bangladesh’s new chairmanship also faces challenges, including political unrest and rising diplomatic friction with India. BIMSTEC's future hinges on overcoming internal political discord and accelerating economic integration. While positioned as a less encumbered alternative to SAARC, it remains uncertain whether the grouping can fully realize its ambitions or succumb to the same regional fault lines. Nazia Hussain, East Asia Forum, May 13
Crosscurrents in Manila: 2025 Midterms and the New Geopolitical Order. The May 12, 2025 Philippine midterm elections serve as a critical referendum on President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration and reflect deeper geopolitical and economic changes. The elections show a rift between Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte, whose protectionist platform stands in contrast to Marcos’ liberalizing agenda. While Marcos’ coalition pushes forward investment-driven reforms and infrastructure development, exemplified by the Maharlika Investment Fund, Duterte’s bloc emphasizes state control over strategic sectors. Economic concerns, including inflation and food security, weigh heavily on voters, especially following the administration’s controversial rice subsidy initiative that reduced prices but squeezed local farmers through import tariff cuts and delayed input support. Internationally, the Philippines remains less exposed to recent U.S. tariffs than regional peers, benefiting from exemptions on semiconductor and electronics exports due to its longstanding U.S. alignment. However, China remains an essential trade partner, complicating Manila’s position. Marcos’ hawkish stance on the South China Sea contrasts with Duterte’s relative silence, framing the election as a choice between continuity with the U.S. or a recalibration toward China. With remittances comprising 9% of GDP and over 1.7 million Filipinos employed in the outsourcing sector, voters are also weighing pragmatic economic ties. The midterms thus not only shape domestic policy but also the Philippines’ strategic direction amid the U.S.-China rivalry. Zeynep Selen Akpinar, Sino-Southeast Initiative, May 13
South Asia
Abnormal States: Kashmir Between Empire, Insurgency, and Intrigue. Major General Sir Walter Joseph Cawthorn's legacy looms large in the entwined history of Kashmir and South Asian intelligence operations. After playing a pivotal role in British Indian, Pakistani, and Australian intelligence, Cawthorn was instrumental in forming Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in 1948. His role symbolizes the deep-rooted entanglement between colonial legacy and modern regional strife. The ISI’s strategic use of jihad has persisted across decades, targeting Indian Kashmir and beyond, influenced by shifts like Zia-ul-Haq’s Islamisation of the military and Cold War dynamics. Internally, India’s missteps—rigged elections, suppression, and neglect—fueled indigenous resistance that the ISI later shaped into Islamist militancy. The enduring conflict reflects Pakistan’s strategic commitment to keep Kashmir unstable and India’s struggle to balance repression with integration. Despite intermittent peace efforts, events like the Pahalgam massacre and retaliatory airstrikes indicate a continuing cycle of violence. While Delhi’s current strategy focuses on economic development and youth engagement in Kashmir, enduring regional grievances and the ISI’s continued operations ensure that Kashmir remains a flashpoint. Abhijnan Rej, Lowy Institute, May 13
India–Pakistan Ceasefire Remains Shaky, With Relations Unlikely to Return to Status Quo. The recent ceasefire between India and Pakistan, declared on May 10 after four days of escalating military conflict, fails to address underlying tensions and remains fragile. Though brokered with reported involvement from multiple nations, including the US, UK, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, both India and Pakistan offered differing narratives on the mediation process. Ceasefire violations have already occurred, while punitive measures such as suspended visa services, trade bans, and the halted Indus Waters Treaty remain unresolved. Talks between military officials took place on May 12, but significant political dialogue has not materialized. India insists on focusing on terrorism and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, while Pakistan seeks to revive the Indus Waters Treaty and discuss Indian-administered Kashmir. Both nations have hardened their military postures and adopted escalatory tactics, such as targeting infrastructure beyond Kashmir and deploying advanced foreign military hardware. Unconfirmed reports of nuclear tensions underscore the volatile situation, further exacerbated by propaganda battles and strategic distrust. While the US maintains economic and diplomatic leverage over both nations, the involvement of foreign actors has not produced lasting stability. The conflict marks the most significant military exchange since the 1971 war, and the extension of Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir’s term, coupled with his Islamist credentials, diminishes prospects for reconciliation. With both governments entrenched in mutual hostility and deterrence reassessments underway, the potential for renewed confrontation remains high. Dr. Chietigj Bajpaee, Chatham House, May 12