Asia Daily: May 14, 2024
News
Russian president Putin to make a state visit to China this week. Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled for a two-day state visit to China, where he will meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The discussions will focus on deepening bilateral relations and addressing key regional and international issues. This visit reflects the strengthening ties between the two nations amidst their collective stance against the Western liberal order. It also coincides with significant global events, including the upcoming inauguration in Taiwan. AP News, May 14
South China Sea: Beijing should respond to ‘blatant provocation’ after US-Philippines joint military drills: report. A Beijing think tank has called for a strong response to the recent US-Philippines military drills in the South China Sea, describing them as a provocation. The drills, which expanded in scope this year to include the Taiwan Strait, are seen as increasing tensions and challenging regional stability. China views these actions as a coordination effort between the US and Philippines, escalating the situation. Hayley Wong, South China Morning Post, May 14
LDP unlikely to field candidate in Tokyo governor race in July. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may not field a candidate in the upcoming Tokyo gubernatorial race and might support the incumbent, Yuriko Koike, if she decides to run. This strategy comes after the LDP's recent electoral setbacks and aims to avoid further weakening Prime Minister Kishida Fumio’s position. Koike, previously aligned with the LDP, has not yet confirmed her candidacy for the election scheduled for July 7. Kyodo News, May 14
Marcos wants stronger Air Force. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has emphasized the need to enhance the capabilities of the Philippine Air Force to bolster national security. His administration's focus on military upgrades reflects ongoing efforts to address regional security challenges. Marcos highlighted these intentions during a command conference at the Philippine Air Force headquarters, aiming to ensure the country's preparedness and defense sovereignty. Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, May 14
India PM Modi files his nomination to run for a third term in general election. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has officially filed his nomination for reelection in Varanasi, marking a crucial moment in India's extensive six-week-long general election. Amidst a backdrop of significant support, Modi is seen as a pivotal figure for the Hindu majority, with his tenure influencing both India's economic landscape and its global standing. The election reflects a broader referendum on his decade-long leadership amid challenges from opposition parties. Rajesh Kumar Singh and Biswajeet Banerjee, AP News, May 14
Beijing ‘prepared for rainy days’ if Donald Trump is re-elected, academic says. Beijing is bracing for potential upheavals in US-China relations if Donald Trump is re-elected. According to Yang Jiemian of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, China must prepare for the worst while striving for the best, anticipating further trade and tech frictions. This proactive stance reflects Beijing's strategy to manage unpredictable shifts in US policy that could emerge with Trump's administration. Kawale Xie, South China Morning Post, May 14
IMF urges BOJ to hike short-term policy rate at “gradual pace.” The International Monetary Fund advises the Bank of Japan to continue raising its short-term policy rate gradually, following a rate increase in March—the first in 17 years. This recommendation aims to balance macro-financial stability during Japan's policy transition. The IMF also stressed the importance of clear communication from the BOJ regarding future rate adjustments and urged fiscal consolidation measures by the Japanese government. Kyodo News, May 14
EC sets date for Senate race applications. The Election Commission of Thailand has scheduled the application period for Senate candidates from May 20-24, following the recent expiration of the current senators' terms. The complex electoral process involves multiple stages, starting with intra-professional group elections on June 9, leading up to national-level voting on June 26. Concerns about low turnout and restrictive media rules are prompting the EC to engage with the press to ensure clarity and transparency. Chairith Yonpiam, Bangkok Post, May 14
Exclusive: U.S. and Taiwan navies quietly held Pacific drills in April. In April, the U.S. and Taiwan navies conducted secretive joint military drills in the Pacific, amid increasing military activities by China around Taiwan. These "unplanned sea encounters" involved various naval assets, focusing on basic operational skills like communications and refueling. This strategic cooperation remains unofficial due to the sensitive nature of U.S.-Taiwan relations and the absence of formal diplomatic ties. Reuters, May 14
Thai activist, hunger-striker dies in custody. Nethiporn "Bung" Sanesangkhom, a Thai democracy activist, died from cardiac arrest after a 100-day hunger strike in prison. Arrested in January on royal defamation charges, she demanded legal and judicial reforms. Despite resuming eating post-hospitalization, her condition worsened, leading to her demise. Concerns have been raised about the treatment of detainees and healthcare standards in Thai prisons following her death. Namfon Chanthavong, Laotian Times, May 14
PM hosts commander of Iran’s law enforcement force. Prime Minister of Vietnam Phạm Minh Chính met with Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Radan, commander of Iran’s Law Enforcement Command, to discuss enhancing bilateral relations across various sectors. Both parties agreed to foster cooperation in economy, trade, security, and other fields, and signed a memorandum of understanding. This meeting follows recent high-level visits and aims to implement prior agreements, with a focus on the upcoming intergovernmental committee session. Vietnam News, May 14
Passenger rail service linking Russia to N. Korea set to resume: official. Passenger train services between Vladivostok, Russia, and Rason, North Korea, are scheduled to restart after being suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The announcement by Oleg Kozhemyako, governor of Primorsky Krai, follows resumed cargo services last November. Concerns arise about potential violations of U.N. sanctions if North Korea sends workers to Russia’s Far East amid labor shortages exacerbated by the Ukraine conflict. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, May 14
Golden Dragon drills no threat to regional security, say RCAF. The Royal Cambodian Armed Forces (RCAF) spokesperson confirmed that the upcoming China-Cambodia 'Golden Dragon' military exercises are strictly for counter-terrorism and humanitarian purposes. The drills, involving 2,075 personnel and various military hardware, will run from May 16-30 in Kampong Chhnang and Preah Sihanouk provinces. The exercises aim to bolster security cooperation and will be observed by other ASEAN members, emphasizing their non-threatening nature to regional stability. Phak Seangly, Phnom Penh Post, May 13
YouTube to block Hong Kong protest anthem videos after court order. YouTube will block 32 videos featuring the protest anthem "Glory to Hong Kong" after a Hong Kong court's decision, reflecting concerns about free expression online. The company expressed disappointment, citing potential impacts on Hong Kong's digital economy reputation, and is considering an appeal to promote information access. The geoblocking will also affect video visibility on Google Search in Hong Kong. Jeffrey Dastin, Reuters, May 14
Kazakhstan: Former minister found guilty in high-profile murder case. Former Kazakh minister Kuandyk Bishimbayev has been sentenced to 24 years in prison after being found guilty of murdering his common-law wife. This verdict comes as part of a high-profile case that has tested the Kazakh justice system's capacity to handle cases of domestic violence with a high degree of public and media scrutiny. The sentencing reflects recent legislative reforms aimed at increasing penalties for domestic violence in Kazakhstan. Almaz Kumenov, Eurasianet, May 13
Yoon pledges support to Ukraine in phone talk with Zelenskyy. President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea pledged continued support and cooperation to Ukraine in a conversation with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The discussion emphasized South Korea's commitment to global efforts for peace and reconstruction in Ukraine. Zelenskyy invited Yoon to a peace summit in Switzerland and expressed hopes for ongoing cooperation. The leaders agreed to maintain communication to promote peace and end the conflict. Kang Yoon-seung, Yonhap News Agency, May 14
Long Form
China’s NATO Anxiety. China perceives NATO's increasing engagement in the Indo-Pacific as a strategic threat, viewing it as part of a U.S.-led effort to counter China's rise. This perspective intensifies as NATO incorporates concerns about China into its strategic framework, fostering deeper ties with Pacific nations and enhancing military-technological cooperation. The inclusion of Asian states in recent summits underscores NATO’s shifting focus, which Beijing criticizes as an extension of U.S. influence in the region. Matti Puranen, The Diplomat, May 15
Italy’s Foreign Policy: China and G-7 Leadership. Italy is adjusting its foreign policy under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, navigating its stance between the U.S. and China amidst its G-7 presidency. Italy, having stepped back from China's Belt and Road Initiative due to unbalanced economic benefits, remains committed to engaging with China on trade and economic matters. This diplomatic balancing act involves fostering European unity on China while avoiding a complete economic decoupling, amidst broader strategic competitions involving the U.S. Mercy A. Kuo, The Diplomat, May 13
An India-China thaw may be on the horizon if Modi is re-elected. As India's general elections unfold, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's potential third term could redefine India-China relations, historically marked by both cooperation and intense stand-offs. Past engagements like the informal summits in Wuhan and Mamallapuram under Modi have sought to stabilize ties despite ongoing border disputes and strategic tensions in the Indo-Pacific. Modi's re-election might drive a pragmatic approach towards resolving long-standing issues with China. Syed Munir Khasru, South China Morning Post, May 14
Is Uzbekistan really wiping out poverty? Uzbekistan's efforts to reduce poverty are underway with significant reforms, yet challenges persist, especially with rising income inequality. The country has recently improved its poverty measurement standards, revealing deeper insights into economic disparities. Geographical inequality remains stark, notably in remote areas like Karakalpakstan. While the government reports progress, the reality of poverty and inequality is complex, exacerbated by economic policies that disproportionately benefit the wealthy. Peter Leonard, Havli, May 13
China’s growth hindered by cyclical and structural factors. China's economy faces both cyclical and structural challenges that impact its growth projections and employment targets. Despite the downturn due to a property crash and global crises, China aims for about 5% GDP growth and creating over 12 million jobs. The shift towards a service-oriented economy and the effects of international tensions and internal policies complicate these goals. Strategic fiscal and moderate monetary policies are being deployed to counter these difficulties and reach economic objectives. Linda Yueh, East Asia Forum, May 15
Lifetime Employment Continues to Give Way to the Gig Economy in Japan. In Japan, known for its tradition of lifetime employment, an increasing number of major public companies are relying on non-permanent employees such as part-time and gig workers. The 2023 ranking reveals that the reliance and total number of such workers are rising. This shift, driven by economic flexibility and cost-saving measures, coincides with broader demographic and economic challenges, including a significant shift in labor market dynamics. Mark Kennedy, Real Gaijin, May 15