Asia Daily: May 12, 2025
China
China, US make substantive progress in Geneva trade talks; ‘meeting injects stability to world economy.’ China and the United States achieved significant progress during high-level economic and trade talks in Geneva, reaching multiple key consensuses and agreeing to establish a formal consultation mechanism to manage bilateral economic issues. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng characterized the discussions as candid and constructive, underscoring their role in easing tensions and laying the groundwork for deeper cooperation. Global Times, May 12
US and China make 'progress' in trade deal talk. U.S. and Chinese officials concluded two days of trade negotiations in Geneva, reporting "substantial progress" amid escalating tariff tensions initiated by President Donald Trump. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated a potential agreement was reached but withheld details pending a Monday briefing. China described the talks as "candid, in-depth, and constructive," with both sides agreeing to form a consultation mechanism for future dialogue. Jamey Keaten, Christopher Bodeen, Will Weissert, Associated Press, May 11
PLA Air Force refutes false information claiming Y-20 transport aircraft sending supplies to Pakistan. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force has denied recent online claims alleging that China's Y-20 strategic transport aircraft delivered relief supplies to Pakistan. In a statement issued on Sunday, the PLA labeled the circulating information as false and emphasized that fabricating and spreading military-related rumors carries legal consequences. Global Times, May 11
South Korea
Official campaign starts for June 3 presidential election. Official campaigning has begun for South Korea’s June 3 presidential election, with Democratic Party (DP) candidate Lee Jae-myung leading the race according to recent polls. The election was triggered by the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk Yeol in December after a failed martial law bid. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, May 12
Ex-President Yoon attends trial via open entrance for first time. Former South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol attended the third hearing of his insurrection trial on May 12, using the court's main entrance for the first time. Previous appearances were made through an underground route, but the court denied further use of that entrance despite requests from the Presidential Security Service. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, May 12
Czech court delays nuclear deal with S. Korea, but industry prospects remain bright. A Czech regional court has temporarily halted a multibillion-dollar nuclear power deal between South Korea and the Czech Republic, just before its planned signing. The injunction, initiated by French firm EDF, a losing bidder, has delayed a contract led by Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co. (KHNP) to build two reactors at the Dukovany plant. Kim Han-joo, Yonhap News Agency, May 12
North Korea
Satellites show North Korean wheat, barley cultivation up 22% under Kim’s orders. Satellite analysis indicates a 22.3% increase in spring wheat and barley cultivation across three major North Korean regions—Turu Island in Pyongyang, Kaechon in South Pyongan, and Sariwon in North Hwanghae—following Kim Jong Un’s 2021 directive to shift grain production from corn to address food shortages. Bruce Songhak Chung, Daily NK, May 12
N. Korean students question Kim’s gifts, alarming parents and teachers. Students in North Korea have openly questioned a state-promoted narrative about leader Kim Jong Un’s donation of musical instruments to schools in flood-affected areas, causing alarm among educators and parents. During a state-mandated ideology session in Anju, where students were taught to express gratitude for Kim's generosity, several children asked why they should be happy if their school received nothing. Seon Hwa, Daily NK, May 12
Mongolia
President of Mongolia Attends the Victory Day Parade. President Khurelsukh Ukhnaa of Mongolia participated in the Victory Day Parade in Moscow on May 9, 2025, commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War, at the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The parade featured over 11,000 Russian troops and 1,500 military personnel from 13 countries, including Mongolia, China, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Egypt, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar. Самбууням.М, Montsame, May 10
Taiwan
Former president Tsai adds UK to Europe trip. Former Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen has expanded her current European itinerary to include the United Kingdom, in addition to previously announced visits to Lithuania and Denmark. Tsai departed Taiwan on Friday, with plans to meet political leaders and Taiwanese professionals, as well as visit academic and research institutions in the UK. Taipei Times, May 12
Thailand
Thailand launches aviation hub plan, eyes Suvarnabhumi for MRO. Thailand has launched a strategic initiative to establish Suvarnabhumi Airport as a global aviation hub, focusing on the development of a state-of-the-art Maintenance, Repair, and Operations (MRO) center. Air Chief Marshal Manat Chavanaprayoon confirmed the plan would proceed as a public-private partnership, with strong interest from major international firms like Airbus, Boeing, and ST Engineering. The Nation Thailand, May 11
Thai PM to visit Vietnam this week. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra will visit Vietnam from May 15–16 to elevate Thai-Vietnamese relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, the highest diplomatic level offered by Vietnam. The visit will include the 4th Thailand-Vietnam Joint Cabinet Retreat, during which both leaders will formalize cooperation focused on peace, growth, and sustainability. Anucha Charoenpo, Bangkok Post, May 11
Vietnam
Vietnam, Russia agree to quickly sign nuclear power plant deal. Vietnam and Russia have agreed to swiftly negotiate and finalize agreements for constructing nuclear power plants in Vietnam. This decision was confirmed in a joint statement following Vietnamese leader To Lam’s visit to Moscow, where both nations emphasized the use of advanced technologies adhering to strict safety standards to support Vietnam’s socio-economic development. Channel News Asia, May 11
Party chief calls for closer friendship between Việt Nam, Belarus. During his state visit to Belarus, Vietnamese Party General Secretary Tô Lâm discussed strengthening the traditional friendship and cooperation between Việt Nam and Belarus. Meeting in Minsk with representatives of the Belarusian Society of Friendship and Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries and the Belarus-Việt Nam Friendship Association, Lâm expressed appreciation for Belarus’s historical support and reaffirmed Việt Nam’s commitment to expanding bilateral ties across sectors such as education, culture, trade, and investment. Việt Nam News, May 11
Myanmar
Myanmar Junta Chief Meets China's Xi for First Time: State Media. Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Moscow during Russia's Victory Day celebrations, marking their first meeting since the 2021 military coup. The Irrawaddy, May 10
Airstrike on monastery in Kachin State’s Bhamo Township kills 15. The Myanmar military launched airstrikes on a monastery in Bhamo Township, Kachin State, killing 15 people. The Taung Lay Lone monastery, located in the Nyaung Pin ward and sheltering over 400 internally displaced persons (IDPs), was targeted during an evacuation operation conducted by anti-junta forces. Myanmar Now, May 11
Laos
Laos records inflation rate of 11.1 percent for April. Laos recorded an inflation rate of 11.1 percent in April, marking a slight decline from 11.2 percent in March, according to the Lao Statistics Bureau. Key contributors to year-on-year inflation include housing, utilities, and cooking fuel at 25.2 percent; healthcare and pharmaceuticals at 20.5 percent; and household goods at 18.2 percent. Vientiane Times, May 12
Indonesia
TKDN reform not caused by pressure from other countries: minister. Indonesia’s Industry Minister Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita clarified that the reform of the Domestic Component Level (TKDN) policy is not a reaction to external pressure but part of a long-term government strategy initiated in February 2025. The reform aims to strengthen national industry by encouraging the use of local products and increasing the competitiveness of domestic manufacturing. Ahmad Muzdaffar, Raka Adji, ANTARA News, May 11
Phillippines
Detained ex-President Duterte is among the candidates in Philippines midterms. Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, currently detained in The Hague awaiting trial at the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity linked to his anti-drug campaign, is running for mayor of Davao in the country’s midterm elections. Philippine law permits candidates facing criminal charges to run unless convicted and appeals are exhausted. Teresa Cerojano, Associated Press, May 11
Bangledesh
Bangladesh’s former ruling party slams government decision to ban all its activities. Bangladesh’s Awami League party condemned the interim government’s move to ban its activities, accusing it of undermining democracy and deepening societal divisions. The ban, announced Saturday under the Anti-Terrorism Act, prohibits the party's presence both online and in public. Julhas Alam, Associated Press, May 11
India - Pakistan
India claims its strikes inside Pakistan territory last week killed over 100 militants. India’s military announced it had killed over 100 militants in cross-border strikes on Pakistan-controlled Kashmir and Pakistan territory earlier in the week, including members of Lashkar-e-Taiba. Lt. Gen. Rajiv Ghai said India targeted nine militant sites in a surprise operation, prompting retaliatory Pakistani attacks on 26 Indian installations. Munir Ahmed, Aijaz Hussain, Sheikh Saaliq, Associated Press, May 11
Southeast Asia
The China-Laos Railway and the Price of Connectivity: Unequal Partners in a “Win-Win” Project. Framed as a transformative Belt and Road Initiative success, the China–Laos Railway has deepened Laos’ dependence on Beijing, exposing the asymmetry behind its "win-win" narrative. While touted for linking Kunming to Vientiane and facilitating over 43 million passengers and 48 million tons of cargo since its 2021 launch, the project has displaced more than 4,400 families, entrenched debt through Chinese-financed loans, and exploited both Laotian and Chinese workers with chronic wage delays and poor labor conditions. Laos’ 30% stake came at the cost of over $465 million in Chinese loans, tightening Beijing’s influence over national infrastructure. Propagated through media campaigns and diplomatic rhetoric, the project promises modernization and prosperity but obscures the material toll in land dispossession and debt entrapment. Laborers, subcontracted through opaque networks, face systemic exploitation, and protests in 2023 underscored growing local resistance. With limited access to Western financing and policy reforms stifled by authoritarian governance, Laos is increasingly locked into China's orbit. The railway thus serves as a case study in how infrastructure can become a conduit for strategic leverage, cloaked in developmental language. Calleigh Pan, Sino-Southeast Initiative, May 12
ACFTA at a Crossroads: Balancing Growth and Dependency in ASEAN-China Trade Relations. The ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), recently upgraded to version 3.0, shows China’s deepening economic dominance in Southeast Asia, raising concerns over trade asymmetries, industrial erosion, and long-term dependency. While ASEAN-China trade exceeded $911.7 billion in 2023, the benefits have been unevenly distributed. Countries like Vietnam and Malaysia have integrated into China’s supply chains, but others—especially Indonesia and the Philippines—suffer from widened trade deficits and overwhelmed local industries. The influx of cheap, subsidized Chinese exports has hurt ASEAN manufacturing sectors, notably in steel and automobiles. ACFTA 3.0 introduces reforms on digital trade and green investment, but critics argue these changes fail to address structural imbalances or limit China’s economic leverage. China’s dominance is also reinforced through foreign direct investment tied to strategic infrastructure under the Belt and Road Initiative, often increasing debt and limiting sovereignty. While some ASEAN states have pursued trade diversification via the CPTPP and EU partnerships, China’s entrenched position remains formidable. The future of ACFTA will depend on ASEAN’s ability to assert greater autonomy, diversify economic relations, and rebalance the terms of engagement in a more equitable direction. James Wang, Sino-Southeast Initiative, May 11
Marcos Jr Versus Duterte: Betrayal and Loyalty in the 2025 Philippine Midterm Elections. The 2025 Philippine midterm elections have become a battleground of political betrayal and loyalty, revealing a fractured alliance between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and Vice President Sara Duterte. Once united as the “UniTeam,” their relationship has devolved into open conflict, with both endorsing rival senatorial slates. The fallout is rooted in personal animosities, diverging policy stances, and escalating power struggles, culminating in Duterte’s resignation from the cabinet and her vocal criticism of Marcos Jr. The impeachment of Sara Duterte and the ICC arrest of her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte, intensified the divide, mobilizing emotionally driven loyalties among the electorate. Approval ratings shifted dramatically, Marcos Jr’s dropped 17 percent, while Sara Duterte’s rose seven percent. The split has further polarized political supporters and reshaped alliances, as even Imee Marcos and Camille Villar appeared in campaign materials alongside Sara. With emotional narratives overtaking policy discourse, the midterms have transformed into a referendum on elite loyalty rather than governance. Aaron Mallari and Aries A. Arugay, FULCRUM, May 9
South Asia
India Courts the World while Losing the Neighborhood. India’s rise as a global power is contrasted by deteriorating regional relations, as its international image diverges from its strained neighborhood diplomacy. While embraced by Western powers as a democratic counterweight to China, India faces persistent tensions with Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bhutan, failing to cultivate regional cohesion. “Operation Sindoor,” a May 2025 military strike in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, further exemplified India’s reliance on unilateral security measures over diplomatic engagement, undermining its credibility. The symbolism surrounding the strike also exposed internal contradictions, particularly in gender rights, as feminist rhetoric masked ongoing domestic inequalities. Regionally, China’s Belt and Road Initiative has filled gaps left by India’s faltering “Neighbourhood First” policy, expanding Beijing’s influence across South Asia. Despite India’s active participation in global forums like the G20 and BRICS, its exclusion from major Asian trade agreements underscores a disconnect between its global ambitions and regional integration. Western democracies should engage India not merely as a counterweight to China but as a democratic partner accountable to regional and domestic responsibilities. Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa, CHINA US Focus, May 9
Oceania
China’s “friendly neighbourhood diplomacy” has consequences for Australia. China has launched a renewed diplomatic push to strengthen ties with regional neighbours through high-level visits and cooperation agreements, positioning itself as a stable and appealing partner amid global power shifts. A central foreign policy conference in Beijing was followed by Xi Jinping’s visits to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia, where he signed numerous agreements focused on strategic dialogue, infrastructure, and economic cooperation. China's rhetoric focuses on Asian unity, mutual development, and resistance to unilateralism—implicitly contrasting itself with the United States under the Trump administration. This charm offensive includes state-sponsored development projects and appeals to “Asian values,” aiming to cultivate regional solidarity. For Australia, the implications are twofold: it must maintain balanced engagement between major powers and proactively deepen regional ties to safeguard its economic and strategic interests as China expands its influence. Carolin Kautz, Lowy Institute, May 11