China
China, U.S. to Hold Economic, Trade Consultations in ROK on May 12-13. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to the Republic of Korea for economic and trade consultations with the United States from May 12 to 13. The Ministry of Commerce said both sides agreed to the meeting, which will follow the consensus reached by the two heads of state in Busan and past calls on issues of mutual concern. Xinhua, May 10
Japan
Japan PM Eyes South Korea Visit Around May 19-20 for Summit Talks: Sources. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering a two-day visit to South Korea from May 19 for talks with President Lee Jae Myung in Andong. The leaders are expected to address energy security after Middle East supply disruptions, critical mineral supply chains, economic security, and security cooperation involving North Korea, China, and the United States under renewed shuttle diplomacy. Kyodo News, May 8
South Korea
Defense Minister Stresses No Major Issue in Speeding Up Wartime OPCON Transfer with U.S. Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back said South Korea and the United States have made progress on conditions for wartime operational control transfer and face no major obstacle to acceleration. Before talks with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Ahn said target timing would be discussed. He also said nuclear-powered submarine cooperation should move forward if Washington provides fuel-related support. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, May 10
Thailand
Chinese Embassy Pledges Support for Thai Police in Transnational Crime Crackdown. The Chinese Embassy in Thailand said Beijing is investigating reports involving a Chinese national suspected of illegal firearms possession. The embassy stated that Chinese citizens abroad must follow host-country laws and that offenders will not receive protection from Beijing. It also pledged stronger law enforcement and policing cooperation with Thailand to combat transnational crime and maintain conditions for stable bilateral relations. The Nation Thailand, May 10
Laos
ASEAN Pushes Shared Fuel Reserve as Laos Emerges Central to Regional Energy Plans. ASEAN leaders are discussing a shared fuel reserve after Middle East-linked oil disruptions and recent shortages across Southeast Asia. The plan would support members during crises, while parallel efforts seek faster ASEAN Power Grid implementation. Laos holds a central role because hydropower dominates its energy supply and exports already reach neighboring states, including Singapore through a multilateral trading project set to expand. Namfon Chanthavong, Laotian Times, May 9
Indonesia
Indonesia Police Arrest 321 Foreigners Over Online Gambling. Indonesian police arrested 321 foreign nationals in Jakarta over alleged links to an international online gambling network. Authorities said the suspects operated digital platforms across borders, using structured electronic systems and tactics to avoid blocking. Those detained included citizens from China, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Thailand. Police seized passports, devices, cash, safes, and identified about 75 domains tied to gambling activity. Agatha Olivia, Resinta Sulistiyandari, ANTARA News, May 9
Taiwan
Taiwan's Legislative Speaker Leads Delegation to France, U.K. Legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu led a multi-party delegation to France and the United Kingdom to strengthen parliamentary diplomacy. The group includes lawmakers from the DPP, KMT, and TPP, with meetings tied to the French Senate’s Taiwan Friendship Group and the ETCC. Han said Taiwan would present strengths in semiconductors, healthcare, small businesses, public safety, and democratic society during the visit. Yeh Chen and Evelyn Kao, Focus Taiwan, May 10
Paraguay President Santiago Peña Meets Tsai Ing-wen, Wraps Up Taiwan Visit. Paraguayan President Santiago Peña met former President Tsai Ing-wen during his state visit, renewing ties between Paraguay and Taiwan. Peña also visited technology sites in Tainan and left for the Philippines after meetings with Taiwanese officials. His visit included agreements on mutual legal assistance, cybersecurity cooperation, and sovereign AI infrastructure, along with business delegation meetings meant to expand investment and supply chain links. Joseph Yeh, Focus Taiwan, May 10.
Pakistan
Death Toll Rises to 14 in Pakistan Suicide Blast by Pakistani Taliban Splinter Group. A suicide attack on a security post in Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, killed 14 police officers and wounded three others. Police said a bomber and gunmen detonated an explosives-laden vehicle, causing a shootout and building collapse. Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen Pakistan claimed responsibility. Security forces began an operation as Pakistan blamed Afghan sanctuaries and leaders condemned the attack. Riaz Khan and Munir Ahmed, AP News, May 10
East Asia
Trump and Xi will struggle to strike a major economic deal. Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to preserve a fragile trade truce rather than reach a major economic bargain. A Board of Trade may manage frictions and purchase commitments, but tariffs, rare earth controls, technology limits, sanctions, and mutual suspicion restrict progress. Both governments want stability because renewed conflict would carry high costs, yet each is working to reduce the other’s leverage. The Economist, May 7
Why China Waits. Beijing sees patience as the best path toward Taiwan because rising Chinese power, doubts about US commitments, and divisions in Taiwan could lower the cost of unification. Force remains possible if Taipei declares independence or Washington recognizes Taiwan. Near-term invasion risk is low, but 2028 elections could lead China to intensify pressure through military incursions, quarantine measures, legal tools, and influence operations. Amanda Hsiao and Bonnie S. Glaser, Foreign Affairs, May 8
Who Is Xi’s Real No. 2? Cai Qi is close to Xi Jinping and helps manage documents, meetings, information flow, and implementation, but he does not control China’s major party, government, military, security, or economic systems. Li Qiang holds stronger formal authority across state and economic platforms. Xi’s system divides power among loyalists and prevents any complete deputy from emerging, making Cai a key operator rather than a second-in-command. Deng Yuwen, Foreign Policy, May 7
China’s bet on frontier science. China’s 15th Five-Year Plan centers on scientific and technological self-reliance, linking long-cycle original innovation with industrial application through proof-of-concept centers, pilot platforms, lump-sum funding, and enterprise-led consortia. Strengths in batteries, artificial intelligence, chips, pharmaceuticals, solar, and rail show capacity under pressure. Weak basic research spending, fiscal strains, talent barriers, aging demographics, and uneven innovation hubs may limit open-ended discovery while security discipline challenges risk-tolerant inquiry and global technology competition debates. Steven Jiawei Hai, East Asia Forum, May 9
What the world can and can’t learn from China’s industrial policy. China’s industrial policy offers limited lessons because its results depend on state capitalism, large markets, patient finance, procurement, standards, and private competition. Success in electric vehicles and solar came from scaling and commercialization, while subsidies to state firms and weak consumption created fiscal costs and imbalances. Other governments should define goals, protect core capabilities, and avoid copying Beijing or following US trade politics. Alicia García-Herrero, East Asia Forum, May 10
Strategic Shift in China’s Primary Aluminum Industry. China’s removal of aluminum export tax rebates reflects a strategy to curb excess capacity, improve efficiency, and redirect supply toward electric vehicles, solar power, and other industrial priorities. Exports declined after the policy change, while large producers moved capacity toward lower-cost and lower-carbon sites. Smaller firms face tighter margins and pressure to upgrade, but success depends on whether downstream sectors can absorb redirected output. Landon Thomas, Asia Society, May 8
Japan’s New Defense Export Policy: Will Industry Seize the Day? Japan’s new defense export policy allows lethal sales to 17 partner countries, opening paths for arms transfers, coproduction, and technology sharing. The change supports GCAP and Mogami frigate cooperation, but industry faces weak defense specialization, labor limits, capacity strain, and caution toward overseas markets. Sustained government backing, export promotion, investment, and risk tolerance will determine whether Japan becomes a global defense supplier. Christopher B. Johnstone and Gregg Rubinstein, CSIS, May 8
Why Japan and South Korea Won’t Go Nuclear. Nuclear debate in Japan and South Korea has grown amid Chinese, Russian, and North Korean threats, plus doubts about US commitments. Strategic elites in both countries remain cautious because weapons could bring sanctions, prestige loss, arms racing, and no clear security gain. Opinion could change if Washington reduces its military role or if one ally acquires nuclear arms, creating pressure for the other to follow. Victor Cha and Kristi Govella, Foreign Affairs, May 7
Southeast Asia
ASEAN’s green ambitions are outpacing its skills. Southeast Asia’s green transition requires a workforce able to support renewable energy, climate resilience, and digital growth. Demand for green skills is rising faster than supply, while education and training systems remain uneven across ASEAN. Environmental education, green TVET, peer-learning platforms, and qualification alignment can build portable skills. Without stronger regional coordination, climate risk and economic disruption will widen the gap between ambition and capacity for member states and workers. Maria Regina Tongson, East Asia Forum, May 8
India’s Engagement with ASEAN: Outreach Does Translate into Positive Perceptions. India’s outreach to maritime Southeast Asia has expanded through visits, coast guard cooperation, naval exercises, defense technology ties, and strategic partnerships, but trust remains weak in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines. Economic limits drive the gap. India remains outside RCEP, faces a large ASEAN trade deficit, and has not completed the AITIGA upgrade. Faster trade progress and better market access are needed to improve perceptions and supply chains. Prisie L Patnayak, FULCRUM, May 8
South Asia
Market design is key to India’s IPO success. India’s 2025 IPO boom raised record proceeds and drew a broad domestic investor base, but many new listings fell below issue prices by December. SEBI’s pre-open auctions, common equilibrium prices, and price bands reduced volatility and supported order during busy listing periods. Better disclosure, realistic valuations, stronger anchor investors, and long-term domestic participation are needed to sustain confidence as the IPO market expands. Rama Seth, East Asia Forum, May 9
Bangladesh’s shipbuilding industry sets sail. Bangladesh is entering the mid-sized vessel market as East Asian yards focus on larger ships and global supply chains face strain. Exports by Ananda Shipyard and Western Marine show practical capacity, while ship recycling supplies steel and supports cost advantages. Green yard upgrades, emissions planning, training, finance, and imported components remain vital. Bangladesh can strengthen Indo-Pacific resilience by expanding affordable, environmentally adaptive shipbuilding rather than competing in large vessels. Jianbo Wu, East Asia Forum, May 8
Central Asia
Kyrgyzstan’s political stability blown over by a Bishkek breakup. President Sadyr Japarov’s dismissal of Kamchybek Tashiev ended Kyrgyzstan’s ruling partnership and triggered purges across parliament, ministries, cities, and the security apparatus. The rupture followed an open letter calling for early elections and praising areas tied to Tashiev. Japarov has curbed the GKNB and consolidated power, but regional rivalry, client networks, and potential opposition in the south could destabilize Kyrgyz politics through 2026. Kirill Nourzhanov, East Asia Forum, May 7