China
China poised to trim growth ambitions, pursue timid rebalancing efforts. China’s National People’s Congress, starting March 5, is expected to signal tolerance for slower growth and limited steps toward rebalancing. Analysts expect a 2026 growth target of 4.5% to 5%, possibly framed as a range, alongside pledges to boost consumption and high-tech investment in the 2026 to 2030 five-year plan. Economists cite a $1.2 trillion trade surplus, weak demand, deflation, and overcapacity as risks. Provinces have lowered targets and wording. Kevin Yao, Reuters, March 3
Generals stripped of CPPCC roles as China’s corruption clean-up continues. China removed generals Han Weiguo, Gao Jin, and Liu Lei from the CPPCC, stripping roles, as the corruption drive hits the PLA and defence industry. The advisory body gave no reason, but such moves can signal investigation or disgrace. The announcement followed the NPC dismissal of military officials. Han led the PLA ground forces from 2017 to 2021 and directed the 2017 Zhurihe parade. Gao led the Strategic Support Force. Liu Zhen, South China Morning Post, March 3
U.S. and China trade chiefs to meet mid-March before Trump-Xi summit. U.S. and Chinese negotiators will meet in Paris ahead of a Trump-Xi summit. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Vice-Premier He Lifeng are expected to attend. Talks may cover Boeing purchases, soybean commitments, fentanyl tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court and steps to revive reciprocal investment. The meeting comes after U.S. strikes on Iran and before Trump’s March 31 to April 2 China visit. Author, South China Morning Post, March 3
China urges Israel to end war in Iran as regional tensions escalate. Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Israel to end military operations in Iran during a call with Gideon Sa’ar after U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other officials. Wang said force cannot solve problems and called for a return to dialogue under UN Charter on the Iranian nuclear issue. Beijing said the attack disrupted negotiations and sought regime change. Wang also demanded safeguards for Chinese personnel and institutions. Mark Magnier, South China Morning Post, March 3
China and France agree to help de-escalate U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged France to work with China to de-escalate tensions with Iran after U.S. and Israeli strikes. Wang asked Europe to uphold UN authority, resist violations of international law and reject double standards. Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said France and China have responsibilities as UN Security Council members and said France was not informed of the operations. They agreed to work with the Gulf states on a settlement. Cao Jiaxuan, South China Morning Post, March 3
Japan
Japan PM to hold “candid talks” on Iran at March summit with Trump. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said she will discuss U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran with President Donald Trump at a March 19 summit in Washington. She told a Diet committee Japan lacks grounds for assessment due to limited information. Tokyo urged Tehran to seek diplomacy, stop nuclear weapon development, and halt attacks on neighbours. Kyodo News, March 3
Takaichi declines to legally assess U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi declined to judge the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran under the law during a Lower House committee. Asked by Japanese Communist Party leader Tomoko Tamura, she said Japan lacks information, including whether the strike was self-defence. Tamura cited UN Charter principles and warned against pre-emptive attacks. Takaichi said nuclear talks failed and Japan is consulting Middle East states. Tokyo has made no judgment on the Hormuz blockade status. The Asahi Shimbun, March 3
South Korea
Main opposition party stages rally against passage of DP-led judicial reform bills. People Power Party lawmakers rallied in Seoul after the Democratic Party passed three judicial reform bills. About 80 lawmakers marched from the National Assembly through Gwanghwamun Square toward Cheong Wa Dae. The bills would create a legal distortion offense, allow constitutional appeals of rulings, and raise the number of Supreme Court justices to 26. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, March 3
Lee, Philippine president agree to expand defense industry, nuclear power cooperation. President Lee Jae Myung and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr met in Manila and agreed to expand cooperation in artificial intelligence, defense industry, nuclear energy, and critical minerals. Lee cited supply-risk and said Korea could support Manila’s nuclear power plans through the Bataan feasibility study and modular reactors. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, March 3
North Korea
North Korea to hold election for Supreme People's Assembly following party Congress. North Korea will hold an election on March 15 to choose delegates for the Supreme People's Assembly, state media KCNA reported. The vote follows a ruling party congress held last month and sets the stage for a new parliamentary session to legislate adopted policies. A KCNA photo showed the 11th session of the 14th assembly meeting at Mansudae Assembly Hall in Pyongyang. KCNA said the election will select delegates in provinces. Jack Kim, Reuters, March 3
IAEA chief says N. Korea continues uranium enrichment, voices ‘serious concern’. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi told the board of governors in Vienna that North Korea keeps uranium enrichment running at Yongbyon and Kangson. The agency observed the 5-megawatt reactor at Yongbyon operating in its seventh irradiation cycle and saw radiochemical laboratory activity from January through September 2025, consistent with reprocessing spent fuel. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, March 3
Thailand
Party-list MPs to be announced Wednesday. The Election Commission will announce party-list seat allocations on Wednesday and approve the winning list MPs, Chairman Narong Klanwarin said. He spoke during an inspection of staff handling constituency MP registration, which requires EC certification. The EC has certified 246 winners in 396 constituencies with results. Unofficial tallies for 100 list seats show the People’s Party on 31, Bhumjaithai 19, and Pheu Thai 16. Bangkok Post, March 3
EC boss walks tightrope of trust amid MP endorsements. As the Election Commission moves to endorse party-list MPs, chairman Narong Klunwarin faces scrutiny over election management. Narong, a former Supreme Court judge elected in November 2025 by a 4-3 vote, is expected to reinforce discipline. Critics cite vote discrepancies, ballot classification disputes, rejected recount requests, and delays in certifying results, reported at 95%. Concerns include missing serial numbers on ballot stubs in Khan Na Yao, Nan, and Udon Thani. Jutamas Tadthiemrom, Bangkok Post, March 4
Myanmar
No amnesty for Myanmar’s top political prisoner as Junta orchestrates power transition. Myanmar’s military rulers granted amnesty to over 9,000 prisoners, including 7,337 people jailed under the Counter-Terrorism Law and several senior National League for Democracy figures. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, U Win Myint and other top NLD leaders remained detained as the regime prepares a new parliament and a civilian rebrand after a disputed election. Myo Pyae, The Irrawaddy, March 3
Iran strikes threaten Myanmar junta’s jet fuel and drone supplies. Iran’s conflict with the United States and Israel may disrupt jet fuel and drone supplies to Myanmar’s junta, analysts said. Amnesty International and Reuters traced ghost ships that carried aviation fuel to Myanmar in 2024 and 2025 and linked the fuel to airstrikes. Disruption in Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz may force supply routes from Southeast Asia, Russia, or China. Activists urged sanctions on ships and terminals. The Irrawaddy, March 3
Laos
Laos, China boost oversight of key projects ahead of 65th anniversary. Laos and China agreed to tighten oversight of major infrastructure and energy projects ahead of the 65th anniversary of diplomatic ties in 2026. A Laos-China Cooperation Committee meeting on Feb 27 reviewed expressway sections, the Nam Ou hydropower project, and clean energy transmission across five northern provinces. Officials cited coordination and reporting gaps. Phoudasack Vongsay, The Laotian Times, March 3
Philippines
PH, South Korea sign 10 deals. The Philippines and South Korea signed 10 agreements on digital innovation, economic and development cooperation, defence, agriculture, trade, education, culture, and law enforcement after talks in Malacañang. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Lee Jae Myung said the deals will sustain the strategic partnership and expand maritime cooperation and people-to-people links. Marcos credited South Korea with support for armed forces modernisation, shipbuilding revival, semiconductors, and projects such as the Panguil Bay Bridge in Mindanao. Catherine S. Valente, The Manila Times, March 3
Approved anti-dynasty bill not perfect, but a good start. House members Jonathan Keith Flores and Zia Alonto Adiong said the approved substitute anti-dynasty bill is a start for a ban in the next elections. They rejected claims of a rushed vote and said members could object in committee. Critics said the measure is weak because it bars second-degree relatives from holding posts at the same time, not fourth-degree kin. Gabriel Pabico Lalu, Philippine Daily Inquirer, March 4
Malaysia
Malaysia PM tells parliament of plot to destabilise government. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim told parliament that a suspect in an alleged bid to topple the government hired a public relations firm to mount coordinated attacks on institutions before the next election due by early 2028. Police are investigating the conspiracy under laws on undermining parliamentary democracy. Anwar said the effort began in August 2024 after a MACC graft probe and sought to influence media, banks and lawmakers, naming Bloomberg. Rozanna Latiff, Reuters, March 3
Taiwan
Taiwan says it hopes Iran's people can soon enjoy freedom and democracy. Taiwan’s foreign ministry said it supports international efforts to help Iranians pursue freedom, democracy, and human rights, and it backed the United States and Israel after their attack on Iran. Spokesperson Hsiao Kuang-wei condemned Iran’s missile and drone strikes on Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and other Gulf states. Deputy Foreign Minister Francois Wu said Washington and Israel sought to eliminate terrorism and are Taiwan's allies, despite no formal ties. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, March 3
KMT and TPP agree to deliberations on bill on Friday. KMT and TPP lawmakers agreed to deliberate the government’s military budget on Friday after talks with the DPP, raising prospects for passage of President William Lai’s eight-year plan. KMT leaders urged a separate NT$350 billion procurement bill. Some KMT legislators pressed for NT$810 billion or NT$900 billion. Premier Cho Jung-tai defended the Cabinet’s NT$1.25 trillion package and warned punitive delay clauses could harm national security. U.S. lawmakers urged swift approval. Taipei Times, March 4
Taiwan-U.S. trade deal still awaiting U.S. notification: Premier. Premier Cho Jung-tai said Taiwan awaits U.S. notification on the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade after the Supreme Court voided President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs under IEEPA. Cho said negotiators aim to keep the deal intact. The ART set a 15% tariff with 1,735 Taiwan-specific exemptions, lowering Taiwan’s average rate to 12.33%. Trump invoked Trade Act Section 122 for a global tariff set at 10%. Legislators questioned whether benefits remain firm. Wang Yang-yu and Chao Yen-hsiang, Focus Taiwan, March 3
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan maintains neutral stance on Middle East conflict, prepares evacuation of citizens. Kazakhstan said it will not take sides in the Middle East conflict and called for a settlement through diplomacy under international law and the UN Charter. Deputy Foreign Minister Alibek Bakayev said Astana is open to hosting talks if requested, citing past Iran nuclear and Syria processes in Almaty and Astana formats. The government planned repatriation flights via Oman and Saudi Arabia and outlined land routes from Iran for stranded citizens. Dana Omirgazy, The Astana Times, March 3
Kazakhstan, ADB Discuss Strategic Cooperation, Sign $5.5 Billion Investment Program. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met Asian Development Bank President Masato Kanda to expand cooperation on projects supporting structural modernization. Tokayev cited more than 170 ADB-financed projects worth over $7 billion. Talks with Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov covered transport logistics, disaster resilience, housing, green finance, digital corridors, data centers, and customs systems. The government and ADB signed an MoU for 15 projects worth $5.5 billion through 2029 including a Saryagash bypass. Dana Omirgazy, The Astana Times, March 3
Kyrgyzstan
Junda oil refinery modernization in Kyrgyzstan set for completion by August 2026. Kyrgyzstan is upgrading the Chinese-owned Junda refinery in Kara-Balta with a $193.75 million major overhaul due by July 31, 2026. Officials from the investment agency, the economy ministry, and the municipality inspected progress under a 2024 agreement with China Petrol Company Zhongda. The plant processes 800,000 tons of crude a year and makes gasoline, diesel, and LPG. If completed, it could meet 50% to 70% of fuel demand, cutting imports from Russia. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, March 3
East Asia
The real AI gap between China and the West isn’t chips or models but the stories we tell. China frames AI as national rejuvenation, social stability, and collective purpose, which supports mission-led coordination and state centralization. The United States and Europe frame AI through market innovation and risk, which drives guidance such as the U.S. AI Bill of Rights and regulation such as the EU AI Act. China’s New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan treats AI as an industrial project and the National Data Administration signals stable data governance. Western data regulation splits across agencies, including Australia’s ACCC and OAIC, which leaves institutions without clear direction. Regulated sectors face delays, while informal use grows in workplaces. William Topping, Lowy Institute, March 3
China’s Financial and Fiscal Decay. China’s financial and fiscal systems deliver less growth for each unit of credit and spending, which leaves the economy more dependent on exports in 2026. Bank lending expands at low rates, moves toward state firms and local government vehicles, and supports weaker investment while household borrowing falters. Profitability drops as net interest margins narrow, limiting bank capacity to rebuild capital. Fiscal revenues fall as a share of GDP, land sales slide, and the overall deficit reaches about 9% of GDP with further widening in view. Reforms that could change incentives include large bank asset write-offs, broader taxation, and cuts to export VAT rebates, but policy signals point to resistance. Logan Wright, Rhodium Group, March 3
China’s critical mineral strategy beyond geopolitics. Critical minerals competition drives supply chain strategies that treat China as a risk. China built rare earth capacity through state support, with reforms that strengthened environmental control, consolidation, and investment in processing and downstream use. The National Plan for Mineral Resources from 2016 to 2020 named 24 strategic minerals and paired domestic upgrading with trade, investment, and cooperation abroad. China leads refining and supply, but imports most minerals, with Australia providing one-third of China’s critical mineral imports. Export controls and trade measures in 2025 followed U.S. chip restrictions and tariffs, and coercion claims around 2010 rare earth exports to Japan face dispute. An inclusive approach that targets supply chain vulnerabilities can limit disruption from unilateral policies and fragmented partnerships. Weihuan Zhou, East Asia Forum, March 3
Xi’s purge rolls on: Two Sessions test loyalty and ‘correct’ ambition. China’s Two Sessions open after the NPC Standing Committee reviewed draft documents and then announced the removal of 19 NPC deputies, including military representatives. High-profile investigations of Central Military Commission leaders Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli remain unresolved, with formal removal from posts and deputy status expected to follow the investigation timeline seen in past cases such as He Weidong and Li Shangfu. Provinces set 2026 growth targets with a weighted average of 5.04%, supporting expectations of a lower national target. A party-wide campaign urges cadres to adopt a “correct view of political achievements,” tightening discipline and moving focus away from GDP. Han Yong Hong, ThinkChina.sg, March 3
After Khamenei: China is watching, and so should Taiwan. US-led strikes in Iran began with a decapitation strike that killed senior leaders, including Ayatollah Khamenei, and show how joint forces can disrupt continuity of government and military command. The campaign points to the value of signals intelligence, geospatial tools, and human sources, plus fast intelligence processing and joint operations. Evidence of Chinese espionage in Taiwan includes a rise from 16 people charged in 2021 to 64 in 2024 and convictions of former aides to President William Lai and former Foreign Minister Joseph Wu in 2025. Taiwan’s priorities include counter-espionage, hardened leadership sites, and continuity plans, with lessons from Ukraine and U.S. liaison support. Charles Lyons Jones, Lowy Institute, March 3
Taiwan Doesn’t Have to Choose. Taiwan can lower conflict risk by keeping credible deterrence, avoiding steps that change the status quo, and reopening channels with Beijing while sustaining its security partnership with Washington. The Kuomintang, led by Cheng Li-wun, backs the Republic of China's constitutional framework, opposes independence, and supports the 1992 consensus as “one China, respective interpretations” that allows engagement without settling sovereignty. A KMT agenda would add crisis communication, expand exchanges, and pursue cooperation on shared issues. Weapons purchases without trained personnel and pilots do not provide deterrence, and defense spending must address capability gaps. Taiwan’s leverage depends on a broader economy beyond semiconductors and less domestic polarization, with democracy treated as nonnegotiable. Cheng Li-wun, Foreign Affairs, March 3
Governing Aging Economies: South Korea and the Politics of Care, Safety, and Work. South Korea became a super-aged society in 2024 and faces a fast transition toward a population with more seniors than workers. Export-led development left welfare tied to jobs and families, a model that strains as birth rates fall and life expectancy rises. Governance pressures converge across care, protection, and productivity. More seniors live alone, unpaid caregiving falls on women, and health care lacks coordination, primary care, and geriatric capacity. Safety risks rise with isolated seniors, missing dementia cases, and older emergency responders. Labor shortages push longer working lives, but seniority wages and early exits lead to irregular work, poverty, and political conflict over contributions and benefits. Darcie Draudt-Véjares, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 3
Southeast Asia
Chinese investment and economic security in Southeast Asia. Green transition plans in Southeast Asia link renewables to industrial policy, with manufacturing in electric vehicles, batteries, and solar. Chinese investment supports these strategies, with Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia among top destinations for Chinese green projects in 2024. China’s export model centres on the new three of EVs, batteries, and solar, backed by low cost supply chains and state support. Overcapacity and price wars in China pushed outward investment to ASEAN. Southeast Asia absorbs surplus products through local EV incentives. BYD exports vehicles from its Rayong plant in Thailand and is building a US$1.3 billion plant in Indonesia. Demand for critical minerals expands extractive pressure, with China importing 129,500 tonnes of rare earth elements in 2024 and Myanmar supplying 34 per cent. Trissia Wijaya, East Asia Forum, March 3
Anwar is Weak, But the Opposition is Weaker Still. Malaysia posted strong economic results in 2025, with GDP growth above forecasts, record foreign direct investment led by Johor, and a ringgit rebound from MYR4.70 to MYR3.90 per U.S. dollar. Diplomatic moves raised Malaysia’s profile while keeping ties with the United States and China. Political strains hit Anwar Ibrahim’s coalition through Selangor’s pig farm phaseout that threatens 114 farms, disputes over Hindu temple demolition and relocation, and revelations about MACC chief Azam Baki’s shareholdings. These episodes test Anwar’s non-Malay support and anti-corruption brand. The opposition remains split, limiting gains, while coalition tensions grow as DAP warns it may quit posts by July 2026. James Chai, FULCRUM, March 3
South Asia
Gen Z vs. Old Guard: Nepal Elections Will Be Democracy's Litmus Test. Nepal heads to a March 5 general election after 2025 Gen Z protests began over a ban on 26 social media applications and widened into demands on corruption, nepotism, governance, and stability. The vote includes 18.9 million voters, with 915,119 first-time voters, choosing among 3,406 candidates for 165 lower house seats under first-past-the-post rules. The main contest pits Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, NCP, and the Rastriya Swatantra Party, with few under-40 candidates outside RSP. Nepali Congress elevates Gagan Thapa, RSP backs Balendra Shah, and older leaders retain control in NCP and CPN-UML. The election tests whether reform translates into power. Rishi Gupta, Asia Society, March 3
Pragmatism must be the glue that binds Nepal's latest political alliance. Balendra Shah, Kathmandu’s millennial former mayor known as Balen, joined the Rastriya Swatantra Party led by Rabi Lamichhane, with a deal that makes Balen prime minister if the party wins. The alliance answers Gen Z demands after protests over a social media ban and corruption that left 77 dead. Nepal has seen 14 governments since 2008 and no full five-year term, with youth unemployment near 20% and migration remittances around one third of GDP. Balen’s city record includes permit enforcement, wider pavements, and improved waste collection. The partnership seeks delivery on hydropower projects and governance reforms through coalitions around practical goals. Brabim Karki, Nikkei Asia, March 3
Oceania
Building a rock-solid Australia–Vietnam rare earth partnership. China’s 2025 export controls highlighted rare earth supply chain exposure and strengthened the case for partners beyond the United States. Australia faces ESG limits on building a full domestic value chain and its 4R doctrine points to regional cooperation. Vietnam holds large rare earth endowment, has tightened regulations, and restricts exports of unprocessed ores to support domestic processing. Ion adsorption deposits in Vietnam carry lower radioactivity than Australia’s hard rock deposits, which supports a division of labor in light rare earth mining and refining. Australia could focus on heavy rare earth capacity for defence demand and use financing, pilot plants, and training to raise Vietnamese refining purity above 95 per cent. Corruption, smuggling, infrastructure gaps, and great power pressure present constraints. Hai Hoang Vu and Anh Khoi Tran, East Asia Forum, March 3