Asia Daily: March 27, 2025
China
Chinese agency briefs German diplomats, business community on anti-espionage law. China’s Ministry of State Security held its first public briefing for foreigners on the revised anti-espionage law, meeting with German diplomats and business representatives. The ministry stated the law enhances legal clarity, expanding the definition of espionage and enforcement powers. Officials described it as focused on safeguarding national security without targeting legitimate foreign business. Attendees reportedly welcomed the session. Xinlu Liang, South China Morning Post, March 26
China’s vice premier raises ‘solemn concerns’ over tariffs in talks with US trade chief. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng voiced strong objections to U.S. tariffs during a video call with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, according to Xinhua. The discussion came ahead of new reciprocal tariffs expected from President Donald Trump, who already imposed 20% duties on all Chinese imports. China responded with up to 15% levies on select U.S. goods, deepening trade tensions amid broader disputes. Ethan Wang, Yukun Zhang and Ryan Woo, Reuters, March 26
Bangladesh’s chief adviser kicks off China visit to continue traditional bilateral friendship. Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus began a four-day visit to China to attend the Boao Forum and strengthen bilateral ties. His trip reflects the interim government's policy of balancing pragmatism and prioritizing the economy. A number of MoUs are expected, covering disaster mitigation, education, trade, and technical assistance. Chinese experts view the visit as a reaffirmation of strategic cooperation, amid Indian media scrutiny over growing Dhaka-Beijing engagement. Liu Caiyu, Global Times, March 26
Japan
Leaders of Brazil and Japan stress importance of multilateralism and agree to strengthen ties. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba adopted a five-year action plan to expand cooperation on security, trade, climate, and defense. The plan includes 80 joint projects and efforts to elevate Japan-Mercosur economic ties. Both leaders condemned threats to democracy and protectionism amid global divisions and U.S.-China rivalry. Lula also met Emperor Naruhito during his state visit. Mari Yamaguchi, AP News, March 26
Upper House passes bill calling for decency in election posters. Japan’s Upper House approved revisions to the public offices election law requiring campaign posters to avoid degrading content. The bill, backed by ruling and opposition parties including the LDP, CDP, Komeito, and Nippon Ishin no Kai, follows incidents in the 2024 Tokyo gubernatorial race involving sexually explicit imagery. Offenders face fines up to ¥1 million. The law will apply to Tokyo’s June assembly and this summer’s Upper House elections. The Japan Times, The Japan Times, March 26
South Korea
Appeals court acquits opposition leader of election law violation charges. South Korea’s Seoul High Court overturned a suspended prison sentence for Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung, ruling he did not lie during his 2022 presidential campaign. The court found his disputed remarks, including denying a golf outing and describing pressure from the land ministry, were not false statements. The acquittal removes a major legal obstacle as Lee remains a key contender if President Yoon’s impeachment is upheld. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, March 26
South Korea installs platform to monitor Chinese presence in disputed sea. South Korea has deployed a stationary floating platform in the Yellow Sea to counter China’s construction of fish farming structures in overlapping exclusive economic zones. Oceans Minister Kang Do-hyung described it as a “reciprocal” move aimed at environmental monitoring. A recent standoff involving Chinese coast guard vessels and South Korean ships raised alarm in Seoul. Lawmakers called the structures a direct threat to marine security, drawing comparisons to China’s activities in the South China Sea. Josh Smith, Jack Kim, Joyce Lee and Ryan Woo, Reuters, March 26
North Korea
N. Korea prepares workers for Russian reconstruction projects in occupied Ukraine. North Korea is selecting 1,000–2,000 skilled workers and technicians to support Russian-led reconstruction in occupied Ukrainian territories, particularly the Donbas region. The plan, coordinated by state labor and security ministries, aims to generate foreign currency and secure future project stakes. Despite sanctions, Pyongyang sees early deployment as a strategic opportunity and expects compensation in food, oil, and materials. Russia and North Korea are also coordinating oversight to prevent defections. Lee Sang Yong, Daily NK, March 26
N. Korea's Kim oversees test of AI-powered suicide attack drones. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un supervised tests of new suicide drones and reconnaissance UAVs enhanced with artificial intelligence. According to state media, the drones showed advanced tracking and monitoring capabilities for ground and sea targets and proved effective in tactical strike missions. Kim directed the drone and electronic warfare units to prioritize unmanned and AI systems, calling them essential for future warfare and long-term national defense planning. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, March 27
India
India-China issues expected but can be addressed without conflict, says India foreign minister. Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said bilateral tensions with China will persist but can be managed peacefully. He referenced the October agreement on Himalayan border patrolling as a step toward easing the 2020 standoff, which left 24 soldiers dead. Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently stated that mutual trust could be rebuilt. The two countries aim to prevent disagreements from escalating into disputes. Sakshi Dayal, Reuters, March 26
Thailand
PM rules out cabinet reshuffle. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra confirmed she will not reshuffle her cabinet following her successful no-confidence vote, where she secured 319 votes in favor. She said the coalition remains unified and reiterated her earlier commitment to her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, that no changes were imminent. Opposition MPs raised concerns during the debate over alleged tax evasion, influence by Thaksin, and her handling of economic issues. Mongkol Bangprapa and Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, March 26
PM denies her government tried to buy votes in no-confidence debate. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra rejected claims her government paid opposition MPs for support in the no-confidence vote, calling the accusations baseless. She said there was no reason to buy votes when her coalition already held a majority. The denial followed claims by Rayong MP Krit Silapachai, who alleged he was offered 20 million baht and a ministerial seat. The Nation, March 27
Vietnam
Brazil president Lula arrives in Hanoi, beginning state visit to Vietnam. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva began a three-day state visit to Vietnam, marking his second trip as head of state and the first by a foreign leader in 2025. Officials emphasized the visit’s role in advancing the countries’ strategic partnership, especially in agriculture, science, and innovation. The trip aims to expand cooperation in trade, investment, and political dialogue. Vietnam News, March 27
Myanmar
Myanmar general dismisses any retreat from politics. Junta official Lieutenant General Yar Pyae said military withdrawal from politics is “impossible,” rejecting opposition demands made during the March 24–26 peace talks in Naypyitaw. Despite claiming openness to dialogue, he dismissed calls for a transitional government and military disbandment. The regime continues preparing for elections in late 2025 or early 2026. Anti-junta groups refuse to negotiate unless violence ends and the military exits politics. The Irrawaddy, March 27
Russia, Belarus send senior military officials to Myanmar to mark Armed Forces Day. Senior military leaders from Russia and Belarus visited Naypyitaw to attend Myanmar’s 80th Armed Forces Day. Russian Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin and Belarusian Defence Minister Viktar Khrenin led the delegations. Their arrival followed junta chief Min Aung Hlaing’s recent trips to Moscow and Minsk, where leaders reaffirmed deepening military ties. Myanmar Now, March 27
Laos
Australian ambassador pushes for deeper Laos-Australia economic engagement. Australian Ambassador Megan Jones called for expanded trade and investment ties during a visit to Savannakhet Province, focusing on opportunities in logistics and agriculture within the Savan-Xeno SEZ. She met with provincial officials and business leaders, promoting collaboration under Australia’s Southeast Asia Economic Strategy. Business Champion Charles Olsson joined the trip to assess investment prospects and engage with local entrepreneurs. Kheuakham Chanlivong, The Laotian Times, March 26
Laos issues voluntary return notice for nationals in the US without legal documents amid deportation threats. The Lao Embassy in the U.S. urged undocumented Lao nationals to return voluntarily, assuring no penalties for cooperation. Over 4,500 Lao nationals face possible deportation under tightened Trump-era immigration rules. Those with green cards remain in legal limbo, fearing reentry denial. Proposed U.S. travel restrictions could further hinder Lao citizens’ mobility. The notice comes amid rising deportation orders and diplomatic friction over Laos’ repatriation policies. Beatrice Siviero, The Laotian Times, March 26
Philippines
Imee hammers govt over Duterte arrest. Senator Imee Marcos criticized the administration for prioritizing former president Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest over urgent economic issues. She questioned the legality of his detention upon returning from Hong Kong and initiated a Senate inquiry into possible due process violations. She urged the government to focus instead on inflation, fuel prices, and support for farmers and fishers. Javier Joe Ismael, Catherine S. Valente and Bernadette E. Tamayo, The Manila Times, March 28
Indonesia
Indonesia, France agree to enhance defense ties. Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot agreed to expand cooperation in defense, following France’s ratification of a bilateral defense pact. Sugiono emphasized joint maritime security efforts and praised January’s La Perouse military exercise in Indonesian waters. The ministers proposed reviving 2+2 talks between their defense and foreign ministries. France’s Armed Forces Minister confirmed the pact aims to strengthen Indo-Pacific stability. Nabil Ihsan, Tegar Nurfitra, ANTARA News, March 26
Jakarta, UK discuss transport, education cooperation success. Jakarta Governor Pramono Anung met with UK Ambassador Dominic Jermey to review bilateral cooperation in transportation and education. They discussed British involvement in Jakarta’s electric bus rollout and enhancements to the MRT and LRT systems. Pramono also highlighted growing educational ties, noting many Indonesians study in the UK through LPDP scholarships. Both parties expressed interest in expanding student exchanges and human resource programs. ANTARA News, March 26
Taiwan
Beijing asks public to report Taiwan independence supporters in tip-off channel. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office launched a public reporting platform targeting alleged Taiwan independence supporters, encouraging submissions against individuals accused of obstructing reunification. The move comes amid Beijing's accusations that Taiwan’s ruling DPP is persecuting pro-unification voices. The campaign follows Taiwan’s deportation of three pro-Beijing mainlanders and rising cross-strait tension under President William Lai, who recently labeled China a “foreign hostile force.” Enoch Wong, South China Morning Post, March 26
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan aims to nearly triple investment in the economy by 2029. Kazakhstan plans to raise investment from $40 billion in 2024 to $103 billion by 2029, targeting high-return sectors like oil, petrochemicals, metallurgy, and agriculture. Officials say the challenge is not funding, but a lack of viable projects. The Baiterek Holding will allocate $2 billion to boost lending, aiming to mobilize nearly $16 billion in additional credit. Dmitry Pokidaev, The Times of Central Asia, March 26
Uzbekistan
Congressman Trent Kelly and Ambassador Furkat Sidikov drive US-Uzbekistan trade and investment progress. Ambassador Furkat Sidikov and Congressman Trent Kelly hosted a congressional breakfast to advance U.S.-Uzbekistan economic relations. Sidikov noted the presence of over 300 U.S. companies in Uzbekistan and projected bilateral trade to exceed $1 billion annually. Kelly praised Uzbekistan’s reforms and called for repealing the Jackson-Vanik Amendment. The Times of Central Asia, March 26
Tajikistan
EU pledges steady support for Tajikistan ahead of historic Central Asia summit. The European Union confirmed it will maintain €142 million in aid to Tajikistan through 2027, unaffected by the recent halt in U.S. funding. Ambassador Raimundas Karoblis stated the EU’s assistance covers green economy development, education, and critical raw materials. The announcement precedes the first EU–Central Asia summit on April 3–4 in Samarkand. The EU has committed over €550 million to Central Asia under its Global Gateway initiative. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, March 26
Northeast Asia
From Strategic Ambiguity to Strategic Anxiety: Taiwan's Trump Challenge.
Rising Chinese military pressure and uncertainty about future U.S. support have intensified Taiwan’s strategic concerns. Chinese naval activity and cable sabotage near Taiwan show escalating threats, while former President Trump's criticisms and proposed tariffs on semiconductors create anxiety about continued American backing. In response, Taiwan is boosting defense spending and investing in the U.S. semiconductor sector to preserve ties with Washington. President Lai Ching-te's Whole-of-Society Defense Resilience Committee is strengthening domestic preparedness, though defense spending remains relatively low at 2.45% of GDP. Amid calls from U.S. officials for a more robust military budget, Taiwan is pledging increases but faces challenges matching China's expanding defense expenditures. Jude Blanchette and Gerard DiPippo, RAND Corporation, March 26
Decades On, Japan Presses North Korea Over Abducted Citizens. Japan continues to push for the return of citizens abducted by North Korean agents in the late 1970s and early 1980s, an issue unresolved despite diplomatic efforts. In 2002, Pyongyang admitted to the abductions and allowed five victims to return, but Japan maintains that seventeen were taken and twelve remain unaccounted for. On March 6, 2025, Japan sponsored a full-page article in The Washington Post to raise awareness, part of a broader strategy of using U.S. media to internationalize the issue. Previous similar campaigns, including a 2022 piece in The New York Times, have highlighted both Japanese and American citizens suspected of being abducted. Tokyo's efforts reflect continued frustration over the lack of progress and aim to renew pressure on North Korea amid stagnant bilateral relations. Robert King, Korea Economic Institute of America, March 26
The 20x10 Project Begins: Songchon and Yonthan. North Korea’s 20x10 regional development initiative officially launched with factory constructions in Songchon and Yonthan, aiming to stimulate local economies through sustainable manufacturing. Three new factories producing foodstuffs, clothing, and household goods replaced the former Songchon Vegetable Greenhouse, sparking concerns about long-term sustainability due to the loss of agricultural land. Similarly, Yonthan saw rapid construction beginning in March 2024, with operations commencing before formal inaugurations. Despite muted state media coverage, the initiative addresses developmental disparities between Pyongyang and regional areas. However, the destruction of farmland and heavy reliance on local procurement challenge the feasibility of maintaining production levels. Kim’s pledge to overcome regional “backwardness” demonstrates the political weight of the project, but its success hinges on the ability of local officials to secure raw materials and sustain factory operations. Martyn Williams and Iliana Ragnone, 38 North, March 26
Poor Man’s BRI: The Global Gateway as a Strategic Tool? The European Union’s Global Gateway Initiative (GGI), introduced in 2021, represents a strategic response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), aiming to strengthen global infrastructure partnerships with a focus on transparency and sustainability. While not officially framed as a counter to the BRI, parallels are evident in the initiative’s scope and rhetoric. EU leaders have emphasized democratic values and non-exploitative investment, seeking to offer a credible alternative to China’s influence. The recent appointment of Jozef Síkela as EU Commissioner for International Partnerships positions the Czech Republic as a key player in shaping the GGI’s direction. Africa stands at the center of the GGI, with half of its €300 billion budget directed there, highlighting the EU’s focus on strategic resources and geopolitical influence. The Czech Republic’s historical engagement with Africa, unburdened by colonial legacy, provides it with unique leverage in building trust and equitable partnerships. However, GGI’s success hinges on effective implementation, genuine partnerships, and clear differentiation from China’s model. Without tangible outcomes, it risks being dismissed as symbolic, but if managed well, it could redefine Europe’s global role. Dominika Urhová, China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe, March 27
Southeast Asia
The Philippines walks a tightrope with Chinese aid. While strengthening its military posture against China, the Philippines is simultaneously increasing its engagement with Chinese development finance. Historically wary of Beijing, Manila saw a dramatic shift under former President Rodrigo Duterte, who secured over US$28 billion in Chinese aid commitments. However, due to local resistance and trust issues, only 1.5% of those funds were disbursed. Under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., initial moves distanced the country from China, including the cancellation of major rail projects. Yet, recent data indicates a selective resurgence of Chinese aid, notably through infrastructure loans aligned with Marcos’ “Build Better More” initiative. This cautious pragmatism reflects the Philippines’ strategy of diversifying development sources while maintaining openness to China when interests align. As Western aid shrinks and regional tensions intensify, Manila must navigate a delicate balance—leveraging development support without compromising sovereignty or strategic autonomy. Alexandre Dayant and Grace Stanhope, Lowy Institute, March 25
After 18 Years, Has the Quad Failed? Initiated in 2007 by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD), comprising Japan, India, Australia, and the United States, aimed to establish a coalition of democracies to counterbalance China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Despite initial enthusiasm, the initiative faltered due to leadership changes, economic considerations, and concerns about antagonizing China. Revived in 2017 as the Quad, the group shifted focus towards promoting a "rules-based order" and humanitarian efforts, downplaying overt security objectives. However, internal divergences, differing threat perceptions, and China's growing regional assertiveness have hindered the Quad's effectiveness. While the Quad has created dialogue and cooperation among member nations, its limited tangible achievements over 18 years raise questions about its efficacy in achieving its original strategic objectives. Rafiq Dossani, RAND Corporation, March 26
Vietnam needs committed collaboration to dismantle cybercrime networks.
Vietnam’s rapid digital transformation has heightened its exposure to cyber threats, with cyberattacks rising by 9.5% in 2023 and ransomware incidents nearly tripling from 2020 to 2021. Online scams caused at least US$740 million in losses in 2024. Phishing, software vulnerabilities, and website attacks dominate cybercrime methods, often linked to international hacker groups. In response, Vietnam has improved its cybersecurity through the 2018 Law on Cybersecurity, infrastructure upgrades, public awareness campaigns, and real-time threat monitoring. Hosting the 2025 UN Convention against Cybercrime in Hanoi shows its global standing and dedication to multilateral cooperation. However, concerns persist over the state’s use of cybersecurity to suppress dissent, given the dominance of security officials in top leadership roles. Despite these tensions, Vietnam ranks 17th globally in cybersecurity and continues to invest in cyber education, data protection, and international collaboration. As the Hanoi Convention is launched, Vietnam faces the dual challenge of leading global efforts against cybercrime while maintaining political transparency and inclusivity in its cybersecurity governance. Hai Luong, East Asia Forum, March 26
Budget cuts threaten to sink the Indonesian Maritime Security Agency’s operations. Indonesia’s Maritime Security Agency (Bakamla) faces renewed operational strain after President Prabowo Subianto’s 2025 budget cuts reduced its allocation to Rp 729 billion (US$44.7 million), down from an improved but short-lived Rp 1084 billion. Tasked with safeguarding Indonesia’s vast maritime territory—spanning 17,000 islands and vital international shipping routes—Bakamla remains under-resourced, struggling with limited personnel and vessels. The agency’s critical role in law enforcement, maritime safety, and sovereignty protection is further complicated by overlapping mandates with 12 other institutions, creating inefficiencies. Persistent incursions by Chinese vessels into the North Natuna Sea show the urgency of reinforcing maritime security. While Japan has pledged patrol vessels, fleet expansion remains elusive. Bakamla is urged to shift spending toward capital expenditures, improve interagency coordination, and pursue maritime partnerships, particularly with nations like Canada. A proposed maritime security bill, prioritized for 2024–29, could solidify Bakamla’s legal authority and reduce jurisdictional conflicts. However, without budgetary reconsideration, these efforts risk being undermined, contradicting President Prabowo’s campaign promise to restore maritime sovereignty. Yokie Rahmad Isjchwansyah, East Asia Forum, March 27
Growing or Shrinking? How Indonesia’s Middle Class is Really Doing. Indonesia’s middle class, essential to national consumption and tax revenues, faces stagnation amid economic pressures. Official data estimate the middle class at 50 million, while alternate analyses suggest a figure nearing 130 million, due to differing methodologies and definitions. The official data, based on SUSENAS, excludes high-income earners but remains the standard for national consumption metrics. Indicators such as subdued vehicle sales, rising non-performing loans, declining savings, and reduced consumer goods sales point to financial distress. The growing informality rate—from 49.5% in 2018 to 51.5% in 2023—and underemployment suggest deteriorating job quality, eroding economic security. Though some definitions merge aspiring and established middle-class groups, real differences in spending behavior and employment persist. Without accurate assessments, policies risk overlooking a population experiencing economic stagnation. While the middle class may not be shrinking, it is clearly not thriving, challenging narratives of upward mobility. Maria Monica Wihardja and Chatib Basri, FULCRUM, March 27