Asia Daily: March 25, 2025

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Mar 25, 2025

China

China unveils regulation on implementing anti-foreign sanctions law. Chinese Premier Li Qiang signed a decree enacting new regulations to enforce China’s anti-foreign sanctions law, detailing asset seizures, activity restrictions, and enforcement procedures. The rules, effective March 25, authorize penalties including freezing of bank deposits, suspension of transactions, and revocation of visas. Affected entities may face limits on imports, data transfers, and participation in government contracts. The regulation also allows appeals if corrective actions are taken. Global Times, March 24

Japan

Chinese activity near Senkakus 'escalating': Japan top diplomat. Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya expressed concern over increasing Chinese vessel activity near the Senkaku Islands, labeling it a clear escalation. Two Chinese Coast Guard ships remained in Japanese waters for over 92 hours, the longest intrusion since Japan nationalized the islets in 2012. Iwaya protested the incursion to Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, calling the timing —during bilateral talks —regrettable. Japan pledged to respond firmly but calmly. Kyodo News, Kyodo News, March 25

Brazil president, on state visit, welcomed by Japan's imperial couple. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was welcomed by Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako at the Imperial Palace, marking Japan’s first state visit in six years. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba also attended the ceremony ahead of summit talks with Lula scheduled for Wednesday. The visit highlights 130 years of Japan-Brazil diplomatic relations. Princess Kako is set to visit Brazil in June to further strengthen bilateral ties. Kyodo News, Kyodo News, March 25

South Korea

China moves to improve ties with South Korea, starting with tourism and K-pop. Beijing is signaling a thaw in relations with Seoul by encouraging cultural exchange and travel, including visa waivers and the return of K-pop events. Recent visits by Korean bands like IVE and Twice to Shanghai and screenings of Bong Joon-ho’s film Mickey 17 suggest eased restrictions on Korean entertainment. Chinese and South Korean foreign ministers agreed to restore cultural ties amid ongoing political uncertainty in Seoul. Laura Zhou, South China Morning Post, March 25

Acting President Han calls for thorough preparations for cooperation with Trump administration. South Korea’s Acting President Han Duck-soo instructed officials to prepare for close coordination with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration on diplomatic, defense, and economic matters. Speaking at a National Security Council meeting after his reinstatement, Han emphasized prompt policy implementation to safeguard national interests and urged enhanced interagency information sharing. He called on the National Security Office to lead efforts in maintaining strategic coordination. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, March 25

North Korea

N. Korea prescribes ‘self-reliance’ instead of vaccines amid disease outbreak. Amid a rise in typhoid and paratyphoid fever cases, North Korea is promoting self-reliance over practical medical solutions, frustrating doctors and patients. Vaccine shortages halted annual inoculation campaigns, prompting authorities to instruct hospitals to use folk remedies and limit prescriptions. Medical workers criticize the government’s inaction, calling self-reliant treatments ineffective. Propaganda campaigns urging hygiene practices have intensified, but hospitals remain without essential supplies. Eun Seol, Daily NK, March 24

N. Korea doubles foreign currency quotas for overseas workers. North Korea has ordered overseas workers to remit twice their previous foreign currency quotas, intensifying financial strain on laborers in countries like Russia and China. Construction workers in Sakhalin and seafood plant employees in Dalian now face longer hours to meet increased quotas framed as a “patriotic movement” tied to the final year of the Eighth Party Congress. Workers fear they’ll be unable to save money or return home as planned. Jeong Tae Joo, Daily NK, March 25

Thailand

China announces joint naval drills with Thailand near South China Sea port. China and Thailand will hold “Blue Strike-2025” joint naval drills from late March to early April near Zhanjiang, focusing on counterterrorism, anti-submarine warfare, and maritime strike operations. This marks their sixth such exercise and reflects growing defense ties, especially since the 2014 Thai coup strained Bangkok’s relations with Washington. Yuanyue Dang, South China Morning Post, March 24

Thailand’s prime minister faces a no-confidence vote over alleged influence by her father. Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is facing her first no-confidence vote as the opposition accuses her of mismanagement and allowing undue influence from her father, former PM Thaksin Shinawatra. The opposition cited failures in addressing the economy, corruption, and pollution. Despite the criticism, her ruling coalition holds a House majority, making her removal unlikely. AP News, March 24

Thai PM Paetongtarn insists she acquired shares, land legitimately. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra defended her acquisition of shares and real estate during a censure debate, denying tax avoidance accusations. She explained that the 4.43 billion baht in shares from relatives were part of a business restructuring, with payments to be made through promissory notes starting next year. She also stated her family legally purchased Alpine Golf Club land with title deeds when she was 11. Mongkol Bangprapa, Bangkok Post, March 24

Vietnam

Defence minister receives Polish military delegation. Vietnamese Defence Minister Phan Van Giang met with Polish Secretary of State Pawel Bejda in Hanoi to discuss deepening defence cooperation. The meeting followed Deputy PM Pham Minh Chinh’s visit to Poland, where both sides agreed to elevate ties to a strategic level. Discussions covered enhancing collaboration in training, UN peacekeeping, and defence industry. Giang emphasized continued implementation of existing agreements, including a 2010 defence cooperation memorandum. Vietnam News, March 24

Myanmar

MNDAA-junta talks on Lashio control off to slow start. Talks between the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the junta in Kunming stalled as the regime demanded full control of Lashio Township, while the MNDAA offered only partial concessions. China, pressuring both sides to restore border trade, warned of renewed crossing closures. The MNDAA seeks recognition of autonomy in several districts. Despite withdrawal rumors, MNDAA maintains control, preparing for April’s Thingyan festivities. Mai Khroue Jar, The Irrawaddy, March 24

Young people subjected to conscription lottery in Mandalay. Authorities in Mandalay’s Maha Aungmyay Township held ward-level lotteries on Monday to select youth for mandatory military service. Around 50 personnel—including soldiers, pro-junta militia members, and firefighters—were stationed at each location for security, with CCTV surveillance in place. Ward officials oversaw the process and summoned families to submit names of conscription-age members. Selected individuals will join the upcoming Batch 12 of military trainees. Nay Min Ni, Myanmar Now, March 25

Laos

Laos signs clean energy deal with Chinese, Singaporean firms. Laos signed a USD 1.45 billion agreement with China Western Power Industrial and a Singapore-based construction company to develop an 1,800-megawatt clean energy project in Xekong Province. The project will partner with a local thermal power plant and is scheduled for completion by early 2030. China Western Power also secured a separate USD 228.8 million power transmission deal on the same day. Laos aims to diversify from hydropower, which has historically provided 80% of its electricity. Oulayvanh Sisounonth, The Laotian Times, March 25

Philippines

China never received asylum application from former Philippine leader Duterte. China denied media reports that it rejected an asylum request from former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte, stating no such application was received. Duterte, arrested on March 11 on an ICC warrant for alleged crimes against humanity, had visited Hong Kong days earlier, which Beijing called a “private vacation.” Duterte’s lawyer also dismissed the asylum claim. Victoria Bela, South China Morning Post, March 24

Philippine defense chief calls China’s claims in the South China Sea ‘the biggest fiction and lie’. Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro denounced China’s territorial claims as baseless, asserting no ASEAN nation recognizes Beijing’s “10-dash line” map. He criticized President Xi Jinping’s leadership and called for stronger defense ties, citing recent Chinese activities at Scarborough Shoal, including a new floating barrier. Teodoro announced upcoming defense agreements with New Zealand, Canada, and France, ahead of U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s visit to Manila. Jim Gomez, AP News, March 24

Indonesia

President Prabowo appoints 31 diplomats, figures as envoys. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto inaugurated 31 ambassadors, including 25 career diplomats and 6 public figures, to represent Indonesia in foreign countries and international organizations. Appointees include former military officials, judges, and legislators. The ceremony at the State Palace emphasized constitutional loyalty and ethical duty. New envoys will serve in countries across Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Americas, as well as multilateral institutions such as the UN, FAO, and ECOWAS. ANTARA News, March 24

Northeast Asia

China’s Harsh Fiscal Winter. China's fiscal revenues are projected to stagnate in 2025, with anticipated growth of just 0.1% despite targeted economic expansion of around 5%. In 2024, tax revenues declined by 3.4%, and only a 25.4% increase in non-tax revenues prevented an overall fiscal revenue contraction. Land sales revenues, a significant component of local government income, fell by 16% to 4.9 trillion yuan, marking a 44% decrease from their 2021 peak due to the ongoing property sector adjustment. These trends suggest that, without structural fiscal reforms, China's fiscal resources are becoming increasingly constrained, necessitating difficult trade-offs in domestic spending priorities and limiting the scope for additional economic stimulus. The Ministry of Finance acknowledges that persistent deflationary pressures and subdued domestic demand are contributing to these fiscal challenges. Tax reforms are urgently needed to address the declining revenue growth and ensure fiscal sustainability. Logan Wright, Rhodium Group, March 24

China’s special envoys are redefining global diplomacy. China’s increasing reliance on special envoys reflects a change toward flexible, task-specific diplomacy aimed at deepening regional influence, particularly in the Global South. These envoys, often former senior officials with close ties to leadership, operate under the Foreign Ministry and focus on government-to-government engagement rather than public diplomacy. Originally introduced in the early 2000s, the envoy system has expanded with the Belt and Road Initiative and post-pandemic diplomatic objectives, including conflict mediation in the Horn of Africa and Pacific Islands. Their roles have grown amid rising geopolitical competition, with China using them to counter Western influence and strengthen economic corridors. The appointment of Lu Shaye to European Affairs signals a more assertive stance, especially toward the EU. While effective in advancing China’s global ambitions, the envoy system faces internal challenges such as bureaucratic overlap and mixed messaging, as well as regional skepticism over debt and resource issues. Unlike Western envoys, Chinese counterparts avoid engagement with civil society or value-based diplomacy, instead focusing on pragmatic economic cooperation. As China refines this model, its special envoys are set to play a central role in shaping Beijing’s global strategy and diplomatic posture. Hao Nan, East Asia Forum, March 24

The Risks of Rushing to Denial in the Taiwan Strait. The United States' accelerated adoption of a military denial strategy in the Western Pacific may inadvertently compromise its longstanding policy of strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan. This shift could lead Beijing to perceive an implicit move toward strategic clarity, potentially escalating tensions. Traditionally, deterrence strategies are categorized into denial and punishment; however, the nuanced transition between general and immediate deterrence is critical and often overlooked. A hasty implementation of denial tactics risks misinterpretation by China, possibly triggering unintended consequences in the Taiwan Strait. Therefore, it is essential for U.S. policymakers to carefully balance military posturing with diplomatic signaling to maintain regional stability. Sean Monaghan, CSIS, March 24

Media Sound Alarm Over River Toxins. An environmental crisis is unfolding along Hunan's Leishuei River, with abnormal concentrations of thallium—a highly toxic heavy metal—detected since March 16, 2025. The contamination affects Chenzhou, a city of over four million residents, prompting a Level IV emergency response and leading locals to stockpile drinking water. Despite initial delays, Chinese media outlets like the Southern Metropolis Daily and Caixin Media have begun reporting on the situation, highlighting the severity of the pollution and potential public health risks. Authorities in Chenzhou and Leiyang have established emergency command centers to address the water quality issues, though officials maintain that drinking water remains safe. However, reports indicate that since 2020, abnormal thallium levels have been found in 17 out of 22 drinking water sources along Hunan's Xiangjiang River, suggesting broader and more longstanding environmental concerns. The delayed public acknowledgment and the extent of the contamination have raised questions about environmental oversight and transparency in the region. David Bandurski, China Media Project, March 24

China’s Narrative Warfare in Africa: Influence and Mechanisms. China is intensifying its narrative warfare in Africa to challenge Western ideological dominance and promote its governance model through coordinated efforts spanning political, economic, cultural, and digital domains. Central to this strategy are party-to-party exchanges, media influence, and ICT expansion, all aimed at shaping perceptions and embedding authoritarian governance norms. The CCP trains thousands of African elites annually, funds leadership schools like Tanzania’s Julius Nyerere School, and leverages media partnerships to disseminate pro-China narratives while suppressing dissent. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing integrates infrastructure development with soft power, offering quick results and bypassing liberal democratic norms. Cultural diplomacy via Confucius Institutes and scholarships further promotes China’s worldview, while digital infrastructure exports enable information control and online censorship. Security cooperation, including the spread of Chinese civic and police centers, reinforces China’s ideological influence in law enforcement. These efforts, while appearing fragmented, constitute a comprehensive strategy to expand Beijing’s influence and counter Western narratives. By exploiting anti-Western sentiment and aligning with local elites, China seeks to reshape Africa’s political landscape and extend hybrid threats beyond the continent. Daouda Cissé and Marko Pihl, China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe, March 25

Southeast Asia

Made in Vietnam or a backdoor for Chinese exports? Vietnam’s export boom to the United States since 2018 has raised concerns about it serving as a conduit for indirect Chinese exports, but detailed trade data suggests a more complex picture. While the share of Chinese content in Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. rose to 28% in 2022, the majority of these exports still reflect domestic or third-country value. Only about 25% of Vietnam’s imports from China can be attributed to indirect U.S.-bound re-exports, with the rest supporting Vietnam’s own growth or other global trade. Exports to markets beyond the U.S. have surged even more rapidly, indicating broad supply chain diversification. Additionally, while Chinese investment in Vietnam remains significant, capital inflows from South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan now surpass it, further diversifying Vietnam’s industrial base. Strategic sectors like solar panels still feature high Chinese content, but overall, Vietnam is contributing to the realignment of global supply chains rather than merely rerouting Chinese goods. The key challenge for future U.S. policy lies in recognizing Vietnam’s evolving role in reducing dependence on China versus a narrow focus on reshoring production. Roland Rajah and Ahmed Albayrak, Lowy Institute, March 22

Singapore’s growth requires more land and people. Singapore’s continued economic growth is increasingly challenged by demographic pressures, land scarcity, and a changing global trade environment. With the global retreat from multilateralism weakening trade-dependent strategies, Singapore is increasing regional cooperation, notably through joint industrial projects in Indonesia and Malaysia. However, workforce limitations remain acute. Despite strict foreign worker controls, non-resident numbers rose to 1.86 million by mid-2024, amid a rapidly aging citizen population. To address these constraints, the 2025 budget prioritizes workforce transformation, AI development, and expanded infrastructure, including Changi Airport’s Terminal Five and the Tuas Mega Port. Immigration and foreign labor remain politically sensitive ahead of elections, prompting a focus on social integration and ethnic harmony. Singapore also plans to import four gigawatts of renewable energy by 2035 from Vietnam, Indonesia, and Cambodia to meet its 2050 net-zero goal, supported by a S$5 billion Future Energy Fund. Technology, particularly AI, and improved regional connectivity are central to maintaining Singapore’s position in global value chains, but retraining its aging workforce and deepening sub-regional partnerships are essential for sustainable growth. Faizal Bin Yahya, East Asia Forum, March 25

Can Vietnam Dodge the US Tariff Bullet? Vietnam has undertaken numerous measures to address the substantial trade surplus it holds with the United States, aiming to mitigate potential tariff impositions. On March 14, Vietnamese Industry and Trade Minister Nguyen Hong Dien met with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson L. Greer, who acknowledged Vietnam's proactive efforts and goodwill in tackling U.S. concerns. The discussions led to the signing of cooperation agreements and contracts valued at $4.15 billion, encompassing machinery, equipment, raw materials, services, and goods between Vietnamese and American enterprises. Additionally, Vietnam has earmarked $50.2 billion for aircraft procurement, aviation services, oil and gas exploration, and refined petroleum imports, with another $36 billion agreement under negotiation. Collectively, these commitments total approximately $90.3 billion, showing Vietnam's dedication to addressing trade imbalances. Despite these initiatives, uncertainties remain regarding the timeline for implementing these agreements and whether they will suffice to deter the U.S. from imposing tariffs. Given that the U.S. market accounts for nearly a third of Vietnam's exports, any tariff increases could significantly impact Vietnam's economy. Nguyen Hong Thach, FULCRUM, March 25

South Asia

Raisina Dialogue: Triumph of the fence-sitters. India’s Raisina Dialogue reflected a growing confidence in its stance of strategic non-alignment, with officials asserting that neutrality amid global conflict is a deliberate, principled policy rather than indecision. India’s refusal to condemn Russia over Ukraine drew criticism in earlier forums, but is now viewed by Indian leaders as vindicated, with Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar emphasizing long-term diplomatic balance rooted in colonial history and democratic values. The UAE also emerged as a prominent example of this “multialignment” approach, presenting itself as an effective mediator in global conflicts, including Ukraine-Russia and Ethiopia-Eritrea. Both countries argue that peace is better pursued through engagement, shared interests, and economic incentives rather than rigid alignment. Skeptics at the dialogue, including European and international voices, warned against neutrality in the face of aggression and breaches of international law. Yet the overall tone suggested a world increasingly favorable to those navigating without fixed alliances. Melissa Conley Tyler, Lowy Institute, March 21

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