Asia Daily: March 25, 2024
News
Japan PM Kishida conveys intent to meet North Korea's Kim: KCNA. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has signaled Japan's willingness for a summit with North Korea's Kim Jong Un, focusing on resolving the abduction issue of Japanese nationals. This proposal aims to open discussions for better bilateral relations, despite North Korea's view that the abduction matter has been settled. The initiative reflects Japan's strategic approach to engage with North Korea amidst ongoing regional tensions. Kyodo News, March 25
China’s Communist Party officials used press coverage of corruption to undercut rivals, study of 2000-2014 data shows. A study indicates that between 2000 and 2014, senior Chinese officials strategically used media coverage of corruption to undermine political rivals. This approach was particularly effective among officials close to Beijing's top leaders. The study, analyzing over 100 Chinese media outlets, reveals the complex interplay of media and political power within the Communist Party. Yuanyue Dang, South China Morning Post, March 24
LDP considers serious punishments for 4 members over funds scandal. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party is evaluating severe disciplinary actions, including non-endorsement in future elections, against four senior members implicated in a political funds scandal. The members, all associated with Abe Shinzo's faction, are under scrutiny following allegations of misusing party revenue. The party's leadership will decide on the extent of the penalties as they aim to address the issue ahead of upcoming elections. Kyodo News, Kyodo News, March 24
CCG water cannons cause 'heavy damage' on PH boat. On March 24, 2024, a Philippine supply vessel heading to Ayungin Shoal was attacked with water cannons by China Coast Guard ships, resulting in significant damage. The Philippine Coast Guard disclosed the incident, noting the ongoing challenges in navigating the disputed South China Sea territories. This confrontation underlines the persisting tensions between the Philippines and China over maritime sovereignty and access to resources in the region. Javier Joe Ismael and Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, March 24
Kyrgyzstan claims to have thwarted major assassination plot. Kyrgyzstan's security services have announced the arrest of five individuals linked to an alleged assassination plot against the country's leadership, reportedly orchestrated by the former customs official Rayimbek Matraimov. The arrests, involving nationals from Azerbaijan, took place in Bishkek, with Kyrgyz authorities also seeking Matraimov's extradition from Azerbaijan. This development underscores ongoing challenges in Kyrgyzstan's fight against organized crime. Eurasianet, March 24
China’s construction for Indonesia’s new capital Nusantara to lead growing overseas city-building portfolio. Chinese construction firms are playing a pivotal role in building Indonesia's new capital, Nusantara, marking a significant venture into overseas urban development under the Belt and Road Initiative. This collaboration highlights China's expanding influence in global infrastructure projects, aiming to enhance connectivity and trade relations. The initiative also demonstrates China's comprehensive approach to international development, encompassing financing, construction, and maintenance. Ralph Jennings, South China Morning Post, March 24
Pita strongly favoured for PM, Srettha's popularity slips in Nida poll. A recent Nida poll highlights the political landscape in Thailand, showing Pita Limjaroenrat of the Move Forward Party as the preferred prime ministerial candidate, gaining popularity. In contrast, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin experiences a decline in public favor. The poll results reflect voter sentiment and potential shifts in leadership preferences ahead of the country's elections. Bangkok Post, March 24
op Finnish legislator begins official visit to Việt Nam. Jussi Halla-aho, Speaker of the Parliament of Finland, has embarked on an official three-day visit to Vietnam, his first trip outside Europe since taking office, solely visiting Vietnam. This visit, celebrating 50 years of diplomatic relations between Finland and Vietnam, aims to enhance bilateral cooperation across various sectors. Finland's consistent support to Vietnam and the focus on economic, trade, and investment cooperation underpin the visit's significance. Vietnam News, March 24
Uzbekistan: “Tashkent mafia chieftain” gets six years in prison. Salim Abduvaliyev, known as the "Tashkent mafia chieftain," has been sentenced to six years in prison for arms trafficking. This verdict concludes an extensive investigation, leading to his arrest in December. His sentencing marks a significant step in Uzbekistan's ongoing crackdown on organized crime. The case against Abduvaliyev is part of broader efforts to combat criminal networks within the country. Eurasianet, Eurasianet, March 23
China ready to remove barriers for foreign companies, Premier Li Qiang tells international forum. Premier Li Qiang announced at the China Development Forum that China plans to ease some barriers faced by foreign companies. This includes addressing issues like market access and cross-border data flow, aiming to foster a more open environment for global investors. The move is part of broader efforts to attract foreign investment and promote high-quality economic growth, alongside urbanization and green economy transitions. Orange Wang, South China Morning Post, March 24
PH, Japan, US lay groundwork in Tokyo for 'historic' April summit in Washington DC. The Philippines, Japan, and the US are preparing for a significant summit in April, focusing on strategic cooperation across various sectors. High-level discussions in Tokyo have outlined areas for collaboration, emphasizing the economic and security benefits for the Philippines and regional stability. This meeting sets the stage for enhanced trilateral relations between the three countries. Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, March 23
Long Form
Why Assam Is up in Arms Against Controversial New Indian Citizenship Law. In Assam, the Citizenship (Amendment) Act 2019 (CAA) has sparked widespread protests. The act, which amends the citizenship determination deadline agreed under the Assam Accord, potentially allows for an increased influx of Bangladeshi non-Muslims. This has led to significant unrest, with 16 opposition parties, led by the Congress party, declaring a state-wide strike and a coalition of 30 non-political organizations, including the All Assam Students Union (AASU), engaging in peaceful mass protests. The Assam government has responded by increasing police presence in sensitive districts and warning protest leaders of legal action if they do not withdraw the strike and aid in maintaining peace. Rajeev Bhattacharyya, The Diplomat, March 25
Mumbai Becomes Asia's Billionaire Capital, Topped by Mukesh Ambani. Mumbai has overtaken Beijing as Asia's billionaire capital, according to the Hurun Research Institute, with 92 billionaires placing it just behind New York and London. India's economic growth, spearheaded by leaders like Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani, has significantly contributed to this achievement. Despite China still leading with 814 billionaires, its number has decreased, while India added 94 people to its list of 271 billionaires, marking the highest number since 2013. The changing dynamics in Asia's billionaire population reflect shifts in global wealth distribution and the impact of economic policies and market performances across different sectors. CK TAN, Nikkei Asia, March 25
U.N. Sanctions on North Korea Have Been Losing Their Bite. Despite ongoing ballistic missile launches by North Korea, the U.N. Security Council hasn't passed new resolutions against the country for over six years due to international discord. Exploiting this disarray, North Korea has been bolstering ties with Russia and utilizing cyberattacks to bypass existing sanctions. Recent violations include the public use of a limousine given by Russia's President Putin and military technology exchanges, undermining the efficacy of sanctions. Additionally, evidence suggests North Korea has continued coal exports, contravening U.N. bans. The growing rift within the international community and North Korea's cunning evasion tactics signal the diminishing impact of sanctions aimed at curbing its military advancements. Junnosuke Kobara, Nikkei Asia, March 24
TEPCO is Committed to Rebuilding Trust in Japan and Overseas. Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO) emphasizes its dedication to transparency and safety in managing the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant's aftermath. Continuous monitoring since April 2022 shows no significant increase in radioactive substances in surrounding seawater, affirming the safety of discharged water. Despite challenges like the 2011 disaster's reputational damage and some countries' bans on Japanese seafood, TEPCO is working towards open data disclosure to regain trust. Ongoing efforts include decommissioning the plant, projected to take 30-40 years, and innovative approaches to handle fuel and fuel debris. With a focus on electricity supply amid global energy concerns, TEPCO strives to rebuild trust through a steadfast commitment to safety and transparent operations. Junichi Matsumoto, Nikkei Asia, March 25
The Export-Led Model Is Evolving, Not Dying. The rise in anti-globalization sentiment, intensified by COVID-19, has led to increased protectionism worldwide, particularly in East Asia. The U.S. has embraced industrial policy, notably with the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act, aimed at reducing dependence on China and fostering the clean energy transition. These policies have shifted trade patterns and impacted Chinese and ASEAN exports to the U.S., favoring Mexico and Canada. Such U.S. policies, alongside a growing appetite for similar measures in East Asia and Europe, suggest a move away from the traditional export-led growth model. However, this model is evolving rather than disappearing, with trade now more influenced by geopolitical factors than efficiency. The shift towards services, especially digital trade, underscores the ongoing transformation of global trade dynamics, emphasizing the potential for growth in services trade and the enduring significance of the export-led model in a changing world. Jayant Menon, East Asia Forum, March 23
Bridging the Security-Economic Divide in Asia. The U.S. is advocating for a shift in focus from economics to security in its relationship with China, urging allies and partners to follow suit. This stance, which has included pressing Japan and South Korea to restrict semiconductor sales to China and encouraging the rerouting of trade, is at odds with the perspectives of many countries in Asia. Interviews across the region reveal a belief in the inseparability of security and economic interests, with the U.S.'s security-first approach seen as destabilizing. To better align with regional dynamics, the U.S. is advised to recalibrate its activities in the Indo-Pacific and integrate more fully into economic networks, avoiding actions that might alienate allies or exacerbate tensions. This nuanced approach would require Washington to balance military and economic strategies to foster regional stability and cooperation. Kelly Grieco, East Asia Forum, March 23
Has Kishida's Support Found Its Floor? Prime Minister Kishida Fumio's public approval ratings in Japan seem to have stabilized, according to recent polls from the Nikkei Shimbun and Yomiuri Shimbun. Despite this stabilization, there's widespread dissatisfaction with the government and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), particularly in relation to the handling of the LDP kickback scandal. Public trust in the LDP remains low, and while the opposition has yet to fully capitalize on this sentiment, it has opened a door for potential gains. Amidst this, Kishida's own popularity and leadership are in question, with the public divided on policies such as the Bank of Japan's decision to end negative rates and the new policy on arms exports. The coming months, marked by state visits and further political maneuvering, will be crucial in determining whether Kishida's support can truly recover or if it faces further decline. Tobias Harris,
, March 23China Macro Through the Lens of Semis. China's semiconductor industry faces challenges with declining salary trends for chip designers, indicating broader sector difficulties. Despite government ambitions, companies believe they're overstaffed. Several chip firms have withdrawn IPOs amidst gloom in the sector. The focus has shifted towards Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE), with domestic makers benefiting from US restrictions and government support, potentially achieving self-reliance in WFE supply. RISC V architecture gains traction, offering a strategic and commercial edge less vulnerable to US sanctions. Efforts to increase domestic semiconductor sourcing in the electric vehicle sector underscore China's push for tech self-sufficiency amid international tensions.
, March 24