Asia Daily: March 24, 2025
China
Chinese premier warns of 'rising instability' at key business forum. Chinese Premier Li Qiang urged nations to open their markets to counter global instability amid mounting U.S. tariffs. Speaking at the China Development Forum, he called on businesses to resist protectionism and stressed Beijing’s commitment to economic stimulus. U.S. Senator Steve Daines and foreign CEOs, including Apple’s Tim Cook, attended the event. China faces challenges in attracting investment as geopolitical tensions escalate. Laurie Chen, Reuters, March 23
Chinese Premier Li Qiang meets U.S. Senator Daines, calls for frankness, deeper trust. Premier Li Qiang urged stronger economic ties and open dialogue with the U.S. during a meeting with Republican Senator Steve Daines in Beijing. Li warned against trade wars, stating that tariffs harm both sides. Daines, the first U.S. politician to visit China under Trump’s second term, was accompanied by executives from major American firms. Discussions also touched on fentanyl-related issues and U.S.-China cooperation. Dewey Sim, South China Morning Post, March 23
Japan
Japan, China and South Korea discuss trilateral cooperation. Foreign ministers from Japan, China, and South Korea met in Tokyo to enhance trilateral ties, focusing on demographic challenges, disaster response, and economic collaboration. Japan stressed concerns over North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, while China proposed reviving regional trade talks. The meeting aimed to pave the way for a leaders’ summit later this year. Mari Yamaguchi, Kanis Leung and Kim Tong-hyung, AP News, March 22
Japan sets up new SDF command to unify defense force operations. Japan launched the Self-Defense Forces Joint Operations Command to enhance coordination across its ground, maritime, and air units. Led by Gen. Kenichiro Nagumo, the new structure aims to improve response times and align more closely with U.S. military operations. The move comes amid rising security concerns over China’s assertiveness and North Korea’s missile threats. Kyodo News, Kyodo News, March 24
Ishiba's Cabinet support dives below 30%, lowest since taking office. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s approval rating plummeted to 27.6%, the lowest since he took office, following revelations that he distributed gift vouchers to ruling party lawmakers. A Kyodo News poll found 71.6% of respondents opposed the practice. The scandal adds to ongoing distrust in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which has faced multiple financial misconduct allegations. Kyodo News, March 23
South Korea
South Korean court reinstates impeached PM Han Duck-soo as acting president. South Korea's Constitutional Court overturned the impeachment of Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, reinstating him as acting president. Han had been suspended since December after clashing with parliament over judicial appointments and his response to President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration. The court ruled 7-1 to strike down his impeachment, stating there were insufficient legal grounds for removal. Joyce Lee, Jack Kim and Jihoon Lee, Reuters, March 23
S. Korea, Japan, China reaffirm peace on Korean Peninsula as 'shared interest, responsibility': FM Cho. Foreign ministers from South Korea, Japan, and China agreed in Tokyo that ensuring stability on the Korean Peninsula is a mutual responsibility. South Korean FM Cho Tae-yul stressed the need to enforce UN sanctions against North Korea, while Japan raised concerns over Pyongyang’s military ties with Russia. China emphasized dialogue and regional economic integration. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, March 22
North Korea
North Korean leader reaffirms support for Russia’s war in Ukraine in talks with top official. Kim Jong Un pledged continued backing for Russia’s war in Ukraine during a meeting with Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu in Pyongyang. The two reaffirmed their mutual defense pact, while Shoigu conveyed President Vladimir Putin’s appreciation for North Korea’s solidarity. Reports suggest Pyongyang has sent weapons and troops to Russia. Observers speculate Kim may visit Moscow soon. Hyung-jin Kim, Kim Tong-hyung, AP News, March 21
N. Korea slams S. Korea-U.S. military drills, threatens to bolster striking power. North Korea condemned the recent Freedom Shield exercise by South Korea and the U.S., calling it a "planned and provocative nuclear war rehearsal." Pyongyang warned it would strengthen its military capabilities to counter perceived threats. While it fired short-range missiles during the drills, no major provocations were reported. Seoul and Washington maintain that the exercises are defensive. Kim Soo-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, March 24
Thailand
Thai PM faces censure motion as opposition takes aim at father’s influence. Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra faces a no-confidence motion as the opposition questions her leadership and the perceived influence of her father, former PM Thaksin Shinawatra. Despite criticism, Paetongtarn’s ruling coalition holds a majority, making her removal unlikely. Economic struggles and high household debt remain key debate topics. Chayut Setboonsarng and Panarat Thepgumpanat, Reuters, March 23
Protests and turmoil expected on the first day of censure debate. Thailand’s two-day censure debate is set to begin with expected disruptions as both ruling and opposition MPs use political tactics to gain an advantage. Pheu Thai MPs may invoke parliamentary regulations to protect Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, while opposition lawmakers push for an extension. The debate, which originally named Thaksin Shinawatra, now refers to a "family member" due to legal concerns. The Nation, The Nation, March 23
Vietnam
Singaporean PM’s visit will be crucial to comprehensive strategic partnership: ambassador. Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s visit to Vietnam on March 25-26 will advance the two nations' newly upgraded comprehensive strategic partnership. Vietnamese Ambassador Tran Phuoc Anh highlighted cooperation in food and energy security, financial development, and capacity building. The visit follows Party General Secretary To Lam’s recent trip to Singapore, reinforcing high-level commitments. Vietnam News, March 23
Brazilian president to pay state visit to Vietnam. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will visit Vietnam from March 27-29 at the invitation of President Luong Cuong. This marks his second visit as Brazil’s leader, following a 2008 trip. The two nations, which upgraded ties to a strategic partnership in 2024, see potential for growth in trade, particularly in agriculture and electronics. Bilateral trade reached $7.7 billion last year. Thanh Danh, VnExpress, March 23
Myanmar
Myanmar junta chief to attend BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok. Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing will visit Bangkok on April 3-4 for the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) summit. This will be his first trip to Bangkok since the 2021 coup. The meeting, chaired by Thai PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra, will focus on maritime security, economic ties, and sustainable development. The Irrawaddy, March 23
Laos
Laos marks 70th anniversary of the founding of the Party. Laos celebrated the 70th anniversary of the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party (LPRP) with a grand event in Vientiane, led by Party Secretary General and President Thongloun Sisoulith. The ceremony honored the Party’s role in national liberation and economic reforms. Thongloun praised the legacy of President Kaysone Phomvihane and urged officials to strengthen Party leadership. Nationwide events marked the occasion. Vientiane Times, March 24
Bangladesh
Yunus' China visit to be 'very productive': envoy. Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Yao Wen described Chief Adviser Mohammad Yunus' upcoming visit to China as a "milestone" with significant announcements expected. The visit, marking 50 years of diplomatic ties, will focus on potential Chinese factory relocations to Bangladesh. Yunus is set to meet President Xi Jinping on March 28. While no agreements will be signed, several MoUs are under discussion. The Daily Star, March 23
Philippines
Chinese vessels surround PH ships in West PH Sea standoff. Two Philippine Coast Guard vessels and a Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources patrol ship encountered a tense standoff with China Coast Guard and maritime militia ships near Bajo de Masinloc. Chinese ships intercepted and surrounded the Philippine contingent, raising tensions in the disputed waters. Philippine authorities have yet to issue a formal statement on the situation. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, March 24
List of alleged VP fund recipients gets stranger. House Deputy Majority Leader Paolo Ortega V revealed more unusual names among the alleged recipients of Vice President Sara Duterte’s confidential funds, including “Amoy Liu” and “Fernan Amuy.” A Philippine Statistics Authority check found no birth, marriage, or death records for 1,332 out of 1,992 Office of the Vice President fund recipients. Ortega argued the fabricated names indicate a scheme to misuse public funds. Newsinfo Inquirer, Philippine Daily Inquirer, March 24
Indonesia
Gov't committed to ensure press freedom: PCO. Presidential Communications Office head Hasan Nasbi reaffirmed Indonesia’s commitment to press freedom following threats against Tempo journalists, including the delivery of a severed pig’s head. Nasbi cited constitutional protections and press laws guaranteeing free media, while urging journalists to maintain accuracy in reporting. Deputy Minister of Manpower Immanuel Ebenezer called for a thorough investigation into the intimidation. ANTARA News, March 23
Malaysia
Malaysia to tighten semiconductor regulations under US pressure, FT reports. Malaysia plans to strengthen oversight of semiconductor shipments following U.S. concerns that high-end Nvidia chips are being diverted to China. Trade Minister Zafrul Aziz confirmed U.S. requests for stricter tracking of shipments, particularly in data center distribution. The move comes as Malaysia investigates links between Singapore-based firms and unauthorized chip transfers to Chinese AI company DeepSeek. Rishabh Jaiswal, Reuters, March 23
Northeast Asia
Greater secrecy in science and tech makes China’s progress harder to decipher. China’s Ministry of Science and Technology has increased opacity in its operations, renaming departments with vague titles like “Department I,” obscuring their functions. This mirrors China’s 1960s approach to scientific policy during its nuclear development era, which focused on state control and limiting external scrutiny. The Chinese Communist Party has elevated technology to the level of national security, with innovation becoming as guarded as military programs. External pressures, including US restrictions following concerns over Huawei’s 5G network, have reinforced Beijing’s preference for secrecy. Yet, despite government censorship, occasional leaks still occur, such as social media posts in February 2025 about Huawei’s AI chip advancements—most of which were swiftly removed. This trend complicates international efforts to evaluate China's technological capabilities and intentions while demonstrating the strategic importance the CCP places on science and tech as tools of national power. Antonia Hmaidi, MERICS, March 20
No surprises, but strategic circumstance weighs heavily on China’s ‘Two Sessions’. The 2025 National People’s Congress unfolded without surprises, projecting stability amid global volatility, particularly from the United States under Trump’s second term. China’s political choreography underscored predictability, with a modest 5 percent growth target and a focus on persistent domestic challenges such as youth unemployment, housing issues, and local government debt. Premier Li Qiang emphasized innovation, especially in the non-state sector, referencing the disruptive success of DeepSeek, a domestically developed AI app. Xi Jinping’s meeting with key entrepreneurs ahead of the sessions, and legislative commitments to support private enterprise, signal a shift toward fostering high-quality, innovation-led growth. China’s pivot from low-cost labor to a knowledge economy is evident in its leadership in STEM graduates and rising global research output. In response to escalating trade tensions, the leadership reaffirmed its push to reduce reliance on foreign technology. Against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty, including U.S. isolationism and erratic global leadership, China’s consistent policy tone and strategic focus offer a contrast of prudence and predictability, which, while unremarkable, serves as a source of global reassurance. Kerry Brown, East Asia Forum, March 23
APEC keeps pushing for integration and inclusion. APEC’s 2025 agenda focused on deeper regional economic integration, inclusive growth, and sustainable development, reinforcing its relevance amid rising global trade tensions. Despite challenges like US protectionism under President Trump, APEC continues promoting openness, focusing on trade and investment—particularly in services. Leaders reaffirmed their commitment to the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific and addressed adjustment costs facing some high-income economies. Inclusion remains central, with a 2024 roadmap targeting informal economies and recognition of aging demographics. Environmental sustainability also features prominently, with ongoing initiatives to align trade with climate goals, including non-binding guidelines for marine debris clean-up services. APEC’s digital agenda is expanding, with renewed emphasis on AI, infrastructure, and digital skills to support inclusion and sustainability. As digitally deliverable services become a major growth driver, regulatory coherence is essential. Key APEC tools—like the Services Competitiveness Roadmap and Internet and Digital Economy Roadmap—expire in 2025, making progress this year crucial. South Korea, building on its strengths in digital innovation and reform, will host pivotal ministerial meetings to shape the region’s digital trade framework and structural reform efforts. APEC’s flexible, collaborative model positions it to address today’s multifaceted economic challenges effectively. Christopher Findlay, East Asia Forum, March 22
North Korea’s Nuclear-Powered Missile Submarine: A Mystery Wrapped Around a Riddle and an Enigma. North Korea’s announcement of constructing a nuclear-powered strategic missile submarine has raised uncertainty due to the opacity surrounding the project’s status. Kim Jong Un’s inspection of a partially constructed hull suggests a vessel significantly larger than previous DPRK submarines, potentially comparable in size to the first US nuclear ballistic missile submarines. Despite visual cues, the completion timeline and final configuration remain speculative, with the nuclear reactor—the most complex component—likely being the pacing factor. The submarine is presumed to be designed for targeting the United States, possibly equipped with a submarine-launched ballistic missile yet to be flight-tested, such as the Pukguksong-6. No evidence confirms the development or testing of a functioning indigenous reactor, although North Korea’s track record suggests eventual domestic capability is plausible. While progress appears real, operational deployment likely remains years away. Even then, a single submarine would add limited strategic value unless part of a broader SSBN fleet, which would require far more time and resources. Vann H. Van Diepen, 38 North, March 21
North Korean Deployment in Kursk: A Window into the DPRK Military. North Korea’s direct military involvement in Russia’s war on Ukraine marks a rare operational test for the Korean People’s Army, offering new insights into a traditionally opaque force. Following a November 2024 military cooperation pact with Moscow, Pyongyang has sent 10,000–12,000 troops across five brigades to Kursk, supported by 500 officers and special operations forces under the command of three generals. These units, trained in Vladivostok and disguised with Russian uniforms and forged documents, are reportedly engaging in offensive operations to divert Ukrainian forces from key frontlines. North Korea’s participation is driven by strategic incentives, including access to Russian satellite and military technologies, foreign currency for its weapons programs, and promises of future Russian support on the Korean peninsula. This alliance deepens an already significant military partnership, which began with ammunition shipments in 2022 and has since expanded to include more advanced weaponry. While Moscow and Pyongyang officially deny troop deployments, evidence from Ukraine and South Korean intelligence confirms North Korea’s growing role in the conflict, reshaping global perceptions of its military capabilities. Lorenzo Fedrigo, Geopolitical Monitor, March 21
Amid Trump Tariffs, Where Do China-Mexico Ties Stand? Despite growing U.S. pressure and the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration, China-Mexico relations continue to expand, albeit with increased discretion. President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government is strategically limiting high-profile Chinese activities to avoid antagonizing Washington, yet subnational and legislative engagements persist. While official state-level relations remain cautious—evident in China’s delay in appointing a new ambassador—legislative figures and state governments maintain active ties, including numerous sister-city partnerships. Military collaboration remains limited but not absent, with past exchanges involving PLA visits and minor defense procurement. Chinese influence also extends to commercial sectors, such as joint ventures and limited defense equipment sales. Beijing is also building ties through academic and technological cooperation, including agreements on satellite and space science education. However, some projects have been scaled back or redirected to mitigate U.S. scrutiny. Overall, China’s engagement strategy in Mexico is recalibrating to operate under the radar while continuing to build long-term influence. R. Evan Ellis, The Diplomat, March 22
Southeast Asia
Indonesia’s EV gamble: Green on the surface, dirty underneath. Indonesia has leveraged its vast nickel reserves to position itself within global electric vehicle supply chains, attracting foreign investment and building the world’s largest nickel industry. However, this apparent green transition conceals large environmental and social costs. Unsafe working conditions, ecosystem pollution from toxic waste, and a spike in coal-powered energy to fuel nickel smelters undermine sustainability claims. Despite modest EV adoption—only 17,000 sold in 2023—the country aims to expand its EV sector, yet weak demand and rigid local content requirements threaten progress. Poor industrial policy governance, insufficient economic liberalization, and limited reforms further erode Indonesia’s competitiveness. With discussions of withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and reluctance to implement climate-friendly policies, the government risks compromising its green ambitions. Without swift action to reform and decarbonize, Indonesia’s EV push may falter, leaving an environmentally damaging legacy behind its green veneer. Robert Walker and Hilman Palaon, Lowy Institute, March 22
Starlink Can Curb Southeast Asia’s Cyber Scam Industry – If They Choose. Starlink’s satellite internet technology, while lauded for enabling connectivity in remote areas, is increasingly exploited by cybercriminals operating scam centers across Southeast Asia, particularly along the Myanmar-Thailand border. With over 40,000 logins recorded from known scam locations between November 2024 and February 2025, and vendors openly marketing Starlink access on platforms like Telegram, calls for accountability are mounting. Lawmakers and experts argue that SpaceX has the capacity—and responsibility—to address this misuse, proposing stronger Know Your Customer protocols, real-time activity monitoring, and service restrictions in high-risk zones. Cyber scams, often facilitated through sophisticated phishing and online fraud, are transnational in nature and exploit legal gray zones, complicating enforcement. Many scam operators are themselves victims of human trafficking, coerced into these operations. While regional crackdowns have rescued thousands, a coordinated global response remains lacking. As platforms like Starlink inadvertently empower cybercriminal enterprises, urgent cooperation between technology providers and governments is critical to disrupt illicit networks, protect vulnerable populations, and restore digital trust. Allison Pytlak and Caitlin Goodman, Stimson Center, March 21
ASEAN–Korea Relations: Achieving a Resilient Partnership. ASEAN–Korea ties have entered a new phase with the elevation to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) in 2024, marking 35 years of dialogue relations. Ambassador Lee Jang-keun attributes this progress to sustained high-level engagement, strong governmental and societal commitment, and expanding economic and cultural exchanges. South Korea allocates over 30 percent of its overseas development assistance to ASEAN and has significantly boosted trade and investment with the region. Looking ahead, a new Plan of Action aligned with ASEAN’s Vision 2045 will guide future collaboration. The “ABC Vision” underpins this roadmap, focusing on advancing peace and security, building a smarter and greener future, and fostering youth engagement. Key initiatives include the Korea-ASEAN Digital Innovation Flagship Project and Inclusive Education Modules aimed at training 40,000 ASEAN talents. The Republic of Korea supports ASEAN centrality and its role in shaping a rules-based regional order. As host of the 2025 APEC summit, South Korea seeks to reinforce regional cooperation, innovation, and inclusive prosperity. Lee Jang-keun, FULCRUM, March 24
South Asia
Could India be the third wheel in a G2 world? India is increasingly positioning itself as a strategic balancer amid US-China bipolarity, as seen at the recent Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi. While largely insulated from global volatility driven by Donald Trump, India benefits from a rapprochement with the US while maintaining strong ties with Russia, aligning with the “reverse Kissinger” theory aimed at prying Moscow from Beijing. However, mixed US signals on China raise concerns in Delhi, particularly due to its contentious border and regional rivalry with Beijing. Speculation persists that Washington may pursue a broader detente with both Moscow and Beijing, prompting India to cautiously re-engage diplomatically with China. Despite ideological divergences, India’s deepening ties with Europe reflect its appeal as a model of strategic autonomy. Still, India often reacts rather than leads on global issues, lacking normative influence comparable to China’s initiatives. Its foreign policy gains strength from what it is not—neither Western nor Chinese—but its ability to shape the international order remains limited. Hervé Lemahieu, Lowy Institute, March 21