Asia Daily: March 20, 2025
China
China-U.S. trust issues threaten hope of successful diplomatic backchannel: Joerg Wuttke. Former EU Chamber of Commerce president Joerg Wuttke said Beijing and Washington struggle to establish a backchannel due to a lack of a trusted intermediary. He dismissed Elon Musk as a potential mediator and noted Trump's unpredictable stance complicates talks. Wuttke sees little chance of Trump visiting China soon but believes China and Europe could deepen cooperation amid trade tensions. Vanessa Cai, South China Morning Post, March 19
Ottawa condemns Chinese executions of four Canadians on drug charges. Canada strongly criticized China for executing four Canadian citizens convicted of drug smuggling. Foreign Minister Melanie Joly vowed to seek leniency for other Canadians facing similar sentences. The Chinese embassy defended its strict drug policies but did not confirm the executions. Tensions between the two countries have escalated amid trade disputes and past diplomatic conflicts. David Ljunggren, Reuters, March 19
Japan
Japan, China and South Korea foreign ministers to meet in Tokyo. The foreign ministers of Japan, China, and South Korea will hold their first trilateral meeting in over a year on March 22 in Tokyo. Discussions will cover economic cooperation, demographic challenges, and regional security, with a focus on scheduling a summit later this year. Japan and China will also hold high-level economic talks for the first time in six years. Nen Satomi, The Asahi Shimbun, March 19
Ex-Japan PM Kishida, predecessors in spotlight over voucher-giving. Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s office distributed ¥100,000 gift vouchers to lawmakers in 2022, fueling scrutiny over political gift-giving. His successor, Shigeru Ishiba, is also under pressure after admitting to giving similar vouchers amid a broader fundraising scandal that weakened the ruling party. Opposition lawmakers are demanding explanations, while past prime ministers, including Shinzo Abe and Yoshihide Suga, face renewed questions over similar practices. Kyodo News, March 19
South Korea
Industry minister to visit U.S. for talks on tariffs, 'sensitive' country listing. South Korean Industry Minister Ahn Duk-geun will travel to Washington for discussions on upcoming U.S. tariffs and South Korea’s designation as a “sensitive” country. He plans to meet U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Energy Secretary Chris Wright to seek fair treatment for South Korean businesses and the removal of restrictions on scientific cooperation. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, March 19
Prosecutors raid Seoul mayor over corruption allegations. Prosecutors raided Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon's office and residence as part of an investigation into alleged corruption linked to power broker Myung Tae-kyun. Authorities suspect a businessman paid for opinion polls during Oh’s 2021 mayoral campaign. Oh denies wrongdoing and has filed a fraud complaint against Myung. Yoo Cheong-mo, Yonhap News Agency, March 20
North Korea
North Korean human rights groups affected by Trump’s aid freeze. U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to freeze foreign aid has jeopardized funding for North Korean human rights organizations. The temporary halt affected groups relying on the National Endowment for Democracy and U.S. State Department grants. Though partial funding has resumed, uncertainty remains. Experts urge South Korea to provide additional support, as its funding levels remain far below those of the U.S. Kwak Yeon-soo, The Korea Times, March 19
North Korea's bitcoin reserve thought to be 3rd largest in world: report. North Korea is estimated to hold 13,562 bitcoins, worth $1.14 billion, making it the third-largest state holder after the U.S. and U.K. The reserve is linked to hacking groups such as Lazarus, accused of stealing $1.5 billion in cryptocurrency. Experts believe the funds support Pyongyang’s weapons programs amid ongoing sanctions. Yoon Min-sik, The Korea Herald, March 18
Thailand
Censure debate set for March 24-25. Thailand’s opposition will have 28 hours to question Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in a two-day censure debate, with a no-confidence vote scheduled for March 26. The debate will focus on alleged nepotism within the ruling Pheu Thai Party, though Thaksin Shinawatra’s name has been omitted from the motion. The opposition aims to expose internal rifts in the coalition, with economic policies also expected to be scrutinized. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, March 20
Senate rejects charter court picks. Thailand’s Senate rejected two nominees for the Constitutional Court, Siripan Noksuan Sawasdi and Chatri Atjananont, after neither secured the required 100 votes. Siripan was criticized for supporting a petition to amend the lese majeste law, while Chatri was not the preferred candidate of key Senate factions. The rejection follows concerns over alleged election rigging in the Senate. Chairith Yonpiam, Bangkok Post, March 19
Vietnam
Science, technology key to building modern, effective parliament: NA chairman. National Assembly Chairman Tran Thanh Man emphasized the role of science, technology, and digital transformation in modernizing Vietnam’s legislature. Speaking at a conference on AI applications, he highlighted the country’s goal to rank among the top three in Southeast Asia for digital competitiveness by 2030. He urged rapid implementation of digital initiatives, AI integration, and international cooperation to enhance parliamentary operations. Vietnam News, March 19
Vietnam, China to enhance judicial, law enforcement cooperation. Vietnamese Ambassador Pham Thanh Binh and Chinese Minister of Justice He Rong agreed to strengthen legal and law enforcement collaboration. They discussed mutual legal assistance, judicial training, and IT applications in governance. Both sides emphasized the importance of reinforcing bilateral mechanisms to support stability and development. Vietnam seeks to learn from China’s judicial reforms as part of its modernization efforts. Vietnam News, Vietnam News, March 19
Myanmar
Myanmar records steep fall in number of students taking matriculation exams. Myanmar’s military regime reported a sharp decline in students sitting for matriculation exams, particularly in areas outside junta control. Only 21,319 students took the Burmese-language exam in conflict-affected states, a 72% drop from 2022. Ongoing displacement and instability are key factors behind the decline. Aung Naing and Nay Min Ni, Myanmar Now, March 19
Myanmar junta blackmailing parents to enforce conscription. Authorities in Mandalay are pressuring parents to surrender their children for military conscription, threatening imprisonment and other penalties under the Conscription Law. Reports indicate families must pledge to return draft-eligible individuals, while some relatives have been taken hostage as leverage. Bribery to evade service has been curtailed as the regime struggles to meet recruitment quotas. The Irrawaddy, March 19
Laos
New Swedish honorary consul to Laos pledges to deepen bilateral ties. Sweden’s new Honorary Consul to Laos, Per Gradin, vowed to strengthen diplomatic and economic relations between the two countries at a reception in Vientiane. Swedish Ambassador Anna Hammargren highlighted Laos’ economic stabilization efforts and ASEAN leadership. The event gathered government officials, diplomats, and international organizations to discuss future cooperation. Vientiane Times, March 20
Philippines
Romualdez: House prosecutors ready anytime for VP trial. Speaker Martin Romualdez stated that the House prosecution team is fully prepared to present its case in the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte. The Senate has set the trial for July 30, after the 2025 midterm elections. The impeachment stems from allegations of fund misuse and misconduct. Some lawmakers express concern over delays, warning of possible impunity. Gabriel Pabico Lalu, Philippine Daily Inquirer, March 19
Duterte's lawyer expects acquittal. Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s lawyer, Nicholas Kaufman, expressed confidence in his client’s acquittal at the International Criminal Court, where he faces charges of crimes against humanity linked to his war on drugs. Kaufman plans a strong defense, citing alleged violations of Duterte’s rights. Meanwhile, the Marcos administration denied responsibility for Duterte’s arrest, stating his government failed to investigate drug war killings. Catherine S. Valente, Javier Joe Ismael and Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, March 20
Indonesia
Indonesia, China to boost investment in Batang SEZ. Indonesia and China are advancing plans for the Two Countries Twin Parks initiative at the Batang Special Economic Zone, with an investment of Rp16 trillion ($967 million). The collaboration, discussed between President Prabowo Subianto and President Xi Jinping, aims to enhance industrial ties in maritime, electronics, and food manufacturing. The initiative supports China’s Belt and Road goals while strengthening Indonesia’s industrial competitiveness. ANTARA News, March 18
Malaysia
S. Korea, Malaysia agree to continue efforts for complete denuclearization of N. Korea. South Korean and Malaysian defense officials reaffirmed their commitment to North Korea’s denuclearization during talks in Seoul. They expressed concern over Pyongyang’s involvement in the Ukraine war and pledged to uphold U.N. Security Council resolutions. The two sides also discussed strengthening cooperation in artificial intelligence, maritime security, and the arms industry. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, March 19
Taiwan
Taiwan practices to mobilise troops fast if China drills turn into attack. Taiwan launched a five-day rapid response exercise to strengthen troop mobilization in case China escalates its military drills into an attack. Defence Minister Wellington Koo warned that the People's Liberation Army could act swiftly, requiring Taiwan to remain on high alert. The drills include anti-landing barriers and missile deployments. China continues frequent military operations near Taiwan, which it claims as its own. Yimou Lee and Roger Tung, Reuters, March 19
Kazakhstan
Kazakh FM holds talks with Japanese officials to strengthen bilateral ties. Kazakh Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu met with Japanese leaders, including Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, to enhance trade, economic, and cultural cooperation. Discussions covered investment, nuclear energy, and regional diplomacy. Japan ranks among Kazakhstan’s top foreign investors, with $8 billion in investments. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening ties under the Central Asia + Japan dialogue. The Astana Times, March 18
Uzbekistan
EU-Uzbekistan cooperation focuses on digital connectivity and critical raw materials. European Commissioner Jozef Síkela met with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in Tashkent to strengthen ties in digital infrastructure, sustainability, and resource development. The EU launched new projects to expand internet access in Central Asia and improve trade through the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor. Discussions also covered critical raw materials and preparations for the upcoming Central Asia-EU summit in Samarkand. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, March 19
Kyrgyzstan
New border warehouse to boost Kyrgyz agricultural exports to China. Kyrgyzstan and China opened a major warehouse in Ulugqat, Xinjiang, to facilitate agricultural trade. The facility, capable of processing over 1 million tons annually, will initially focus on grains and legumes. Future plans include a broader range of products. Talks also covered a $30 million logistics park in Kyrgyzstan and Chinese agricultural equipment donations. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, March 19
Northeast Asia
The North Korea tourist trap. North Korea briefly reopened its borders in February 2025 to a limited group of foreign tourists from countries including Australia, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Canada, marking the first such visits since 2020. However, the nation abruptly ceased issuing new tourism visas in March 2025, maintaining restrictions on Chinese tourists, historically its largest foreign visitor demographic. This sudden policy reversal occurred despite significant investments in tourism infrastructure at locations such as Mount Chilbo, Mount Paektu, Mount Kumgang, and the Wonsan-Kalma resort area, intended to boost post-pandemic tourism revenue. Concurrently, North Korea has reportedly moved to military support for Russia, supplying war materiel valued at approximately US$5.5 billion since 2023 and deploying troops projected to generate up to US$572 million annually. This suggests a preference for military alliances over tourism as a source of foreign currency. Additionally, concerns about foreign tourists disseminating information regarding North Korean military casualties in Russia may have influenced the decision to re-close borders, aiming to preserve domestic socio-political stability. Khang Vu, Lowy Institute, March 19
Staying united: The best way for the EU to reduce its trade vulnerabilities with China. The European Union (EU) faces large trade dependencies on China, particularly in critical sectors such as pharmaceuticals and technology. To mitigate these vulnerabilities, a coordinated and unified approach among EU member states is essential. Implementing a comprehensive risk assessment framework can help identify and address strategic dependencies. Collaborating with global partners beyond the United States, including G7 nations and countries in the Global South, can further strengthen the EU's economic security strategy. Diversifying supply chains and investing in domestic manufacturing capabilities are crucial steps toward reducing reliance on Chinese imports. By maintaining unity and strategic coordination, the EU can increase its resilience against potential economic coercion from China. François Chimits, MERICS, March 19
Shrinking Humanities for AI. On February 25, 2025, Fudan University President Jin Li announced a significant reduction in humanities course offerings to prioritize artificial intelligence (AI) education. This aims to prepare students for future uncertainties by focusing on technological competencies. Currently, Fudan offers 116 AI-related courses, reflecting a broader national trend in China where universities are adjusting curricula to align with technological advancements. In 2023, the Ministry of Education mandated that 20% of university courses be updated to accommodate new technologies, leading to the elimination of majors deemed misaligned with socio-economic development goals. Alex Colville, China Media Project, March 19
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia’s critical role as a green industrial leader. Southeast Asia faces challenges in its energy transition following the United States' withdrawal from the Just Energy Transition Partnership and aid reductions from the European Union and the United Kingdom. Despite this setback, the region’s industrial decarbonization remains essential for both economic growth and global emissions reductions, as Southeast Asia is projected to contribute 25% of the world’s energy demand growth over the next decade. Net Zero Industrial Precincts, where companies share infrastructure and renewable energy systems, offer a coordinated approach to lowering emissions. Investments in energy-efficient technologies, such as those outlined in Climateworks Centre’s study on Indonesia’s manufacturing sector, present immediate benefits by cutting costs and reducing fossil fuel reliance. Additionally, Southeast Asia is well-positioned to expand clean technology manufacturing, with Indonesia emerging as a hub for critical minerals and battery supply chains, while Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand lead in solar photovoltaic production. ASEAN’s partnerships with major economies and its growing intra-regional trade strengthen its potential to establish a competitive low-carbon industrial sector. However, ensuring that 70 million micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) adapt to these changes requires strategic long-term investment. Industrial decarbonization is an opportunity to secure economic resilience and competitiveness in a net-zero world. Trang Nguyen and Jannata (Egi) Giwangkara, Lowy Institute, March 19
Brunei must refine and regionalize its economic approaches. In 2024, Brunei's economy experienced a significant rebound, achieving a 6.4% growth rate, primarily due to recoveries in its oil and gas sectors. The commencement of production at the Salman oilfield in October 2023 and the revitalization of mature offshore assets contributed to this upturn. However, sustaining such growth is challenging, as oil production, despite its recovery to approximately 100,000 barrels per day in 2024, remains significantly lower than its 2006 peak of 220,000 barrels per day. Efforts to diversify the economy have yielded limited success, with the private sector's growth hindered by labor market rigidities and bureaucratic inefficiencies. To address these challenges, Brunei should establish realistic long-term economic goals, identify higher value-adding sectors based on existing capabilities, and consider strategic investments in new growth areas, potentially involving the importation of foreign workers alongside local workforce development. Leveraging regional integration and neutral foreign policy stances could also help Brunei capitalize on shifting trade and investment flows within ASEAN. Additionally, the global energy transition presents opportunities for Brunei to venture into renewables and clean fuels, aligning with regional developments such as Sarawak's advancements in floating solar projects and hydrogen production facilities. To achieve these objectives, decisive action and a willingness to balance economic openness with cultural preservation are essential. Wee Chian Koh and Vanne Khut, East Asia Forum, March 19
Southeast Asia's Quest for Digital Sovereignty. Southeast Asian nations are actively pursuing digital sovereignty to safeguard their technological futures amid escalating global tech rivalries. With a population nearing 700 million and rapidly expanding economies, the region's digital economy is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2030. This growth is driven by the swift deployment of advanced telecommunications infrastructure, including 5G networks and fiber-optic systems, facilitating the proliferation of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and cloud computing applications. The surge in internet users has created thriving e-commerce, digital finance, and super-app ecosystems. To harness this potential, both public and private sectors are investing in digital infrastructure and establishing regulatory frameworks to ensure autonomous technological development. Achieving digital sovereignty is crucial for Southeast Asia to maintain control over its data and technological advancements, thereby reducing reliance on external entities and enhancing regional innovation ecosystems. Vishal Rana and Govand Khalid Azeez, The Diplomat, March 19
Southeast Asia Will Be Challenged by Trump 2.0. The re-election of President Donald Trump is causing changes in international relations, presenting both challenges and opportunities for Southeast Asia. The region began the year with robust economic growth, projected at 4.7% for 2024, driven by effective trade policies and industrial strategies. However, the Trump administration's protectionist stance, including the implementation of "reciprocal" tariffs targeting sectors vital to ASEAN economies—such as automotive, semiconductors, and critical minerals—poses a threat to the multilateral trading system. Countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, which have substantial trade surpluses with the U.S., are particularly vulnerable to these measures. To navigate this, deeper intra-ASEAN coordination is essential to mitigate potential economic disruptions and maintain regional stability. Sarang Shidore, FULCRUM, March 19
South Asia
Corruption and crisis define Nepal’s 2024. In 2024, Nepal experienced political instability marked by the formation of a grand coalition between the Communist Party of Nepal–Unified Marxist–Leninist (CPN–UML) and the Nepali Congress. Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli assumed the prime ministership for the fourth time in July, following the coalition's withdrawal of support from the previous government led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda'. The coalition aimed to achieve constitutional amendments through a power-sharing arrangement, with the prime ministerial role alternating between Oli and Nepali Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba. However, as of March 2025, the coalition has struggled to establish a common framework for these amendments, leading to executive orders that bypass parliamentary procedures. This political turmoil has been exacerbated by internal conflicts within the CPN–UML and allegations of corruption involving high-profile leaders. Nepal's economic indicators remain weak, with a substantial trade deficit, limited export growth, and a continued exodus of youth seeking employment abroad. Public dissatisfaction is evident, with approximately 68% of Nepalis believing the country is heading in the wrong direction. This discontent has fueled movements advocating for the reinstatement of the monarchy, including public statements from former King Gyanendra Shah seeking support for his return. The persistence of longstanding issues, coupled with emerging challenges, suggests that 2025 may mirror the political and economic difficulties faced in 2024. Anil Sigdel, East Asia Forum, March 20