Asia Daily: March 18, 2025
China
China says military exercises near Taiwan punishment for ‘separatism.’ China conducted large-scale military drills near Taiwan, deploying 54 warplanes and multiple naval vessels as a warning against what it calls separatist actions by President Lai Ching-te. Taiwan condemned the exercises, calling Beijing a "troublemaker" and urging allies to counter China's military expansion. Taipei’s security officials warn that China is attempting to normalize such drills, which now occur every 7-10 days. Yimou Lee, Reuters, March 17
China’s Xi may visit U.S. in ‘not-too-distant future,’ Trump says. President Donald Trump suggested that Chinese President Xi Jinping could visit the U.S. soon for talks, despite ongoing trade tensions. Trump has imposed 20% tariffs on all Chinese imports, citing Beijing’s failure to curb fentanyl production. While he expressed optimism about relations with Xi, issues like tariffs and Taiwan remain unresolved. Beijing has criticized the tariffs but responded with limited countermeasures. Gram Slattery and Trevor Hunnicutt, Reuters, March 17
Japan
Japan finance minister calls U.S. tariffs ‘regrettable’ at G7 talks. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato criticized the U.S. decision to impose tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, calling it "regrettable" during a virtual G7 meeting. He emphasized the need for predictable industrial policies based on global trade rules. The tariffs, imposed by President Donald Trump, have triggered retaliatory measures from key trade partners, raising concerns over Japan’s auto sector. Kyodo News, March 18
Opposition leaders demand Ishiba appear at Diet ethics panels. Opposition parties are calling for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to testify before Diet ethics committees regarding gift certificates he gave to 15 Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers. Ishiba admitted to distributing ¥100,000 ($673) gift cards but denied violating political funding laws. Constitutional Democratic Party leader Yoshihiko Noda and Democratic Party for the People leader Yuichiro Tamaki argue the gifts may have breached legal restrictions and demand further explanation. Takahiro Okubo, Tsuneo Sasai, and Shinichi Fujiwara, The Asahi Shimbun, March 17
Top diplomats of S. Korea, Japan, China to hold talks in Tokyo this week. South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will meet in Tokyo on Saturday to discuss trilateral cooperation and regional affairs. The ministers will review past progress and explore future developments in diplomatic relations. Cho is also scheduled to hold separate bilateral meetings with his Japanese and Chinese counterparts. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, March 18
South Korea
Ex-South Korea defense minister denies insurrection in martial law plot. Former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun rejected insurrection charges at his trial, arguing that martial law was a response to the opposition's “wicked behavior.” Prosecutors accuse Kim and President Yoon Suk Yeol of conspiring to use military force to suppress opposition lawmakers. Evidence includes meetings with intelligence officials and military planning discussions at a fast-food restaurant. Prosecutors argue martial law was unjustified, while Kim’s lawyers deny wrongdoing. Ju-Min Park, Reuters, March 17
Police again file for arrest warrants for 2 Yoon aides. South Korean police have refiled arrest warrant requests for Kim Seong-hoon, acting chief of the Presidential Security Service (PSS), and Lee Kwang-woo, head of the PSS bodyguard division, for allegedly obstructing the arrest of impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol. The officials are accused of personnel misconduct and deleting call records between Yoon and military leaders. A prosecution panel ruled the warrants justified after prior rejections. Kim Na-young, Yonhap News Agency, March 17
North Korea
Senior diplomats of N. Korea, Russia discuss arranging high-level meeting: report. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko met with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui and Vice Foreign Minister Kim Jong-gu in Pyongyang to discuss scheduling a high-level summit. Talks focused on reinforcing the comprehensive strategic partnership signed by Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un last year, which includes a mutual defense pact. Both sides reaffirmed commitments to deepening political and military cooperation. Kim Na-young, Yonhap News Agency, March 17
N. Korean economy, public health delegations visit Russia for exchange: KCNA. North Korea sent economic and public health delegations to Russia, signaling growing bilateral cooperation. External Economic Relations Minister Yun Jong-ho and Public Health Minister Chon Sol-ryong led their respective groups, following recent North Korea-Russia economic talks. Discussions likely focused on energy, agriculture, science, and defense-related matters, particularly amid Pyongyang’s troop deployments in support of Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, March 18
India
India’s Modi says Trump has ‘clear roadmap’ in second term. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi praised U.S. President Donald Trump’s preparedness for his second term, stating that Trump has a well-defined strategy. Speaking on a podcast, Modi highlighted strong U.S.-India relations despite upcoming tariffs that could impact Indian exports. He also discussed improving ties with China following a border agreement while expressing hope for peace with Pakistan despite ongoing tensions. Tanvi Mehta, Charlotte Greenfield, Ryan Woo and Sudipto Ganguly, Reuters, March 17
India and New Zealand look to bolster ties after reviving free trade talks. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon met in New Delhi to strengthen economic and defense relations following the revival of free trade negotiations. Both countries signed agreements on defense, food processing, pharmaceuticals, renewable energy, and critical minerals. The move comes as India pursues trade deals with other nations amid new U.S. tariffs. AP News, March 17
Thailand
People’s Party omits Thaksin from censure motion. Thailand’s opposition People’s Party (PP) submitted a revised no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, replacing direct references to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra with "a family member." The revision follows a parliamentary warning that naming Thaksin could violate procedural rules. The PP claims secret deals enabled Thaksin’s return and Paetongtarn’s rise to power. The censure debate will focus on economic policies, military reform failures, and constitutional amendments. Chairith Yonpiam, Bangkok Post, March 18
PM accused of exchanging national interests for vested ones. The opposition People’s Party (PP) launched a campaign ahead of the censure debate, alleging that Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra prioritizes elite interests over national welfare. A controversial poster, inspired by Michelangelo’s The Creation of Adam, depicts Paetongtarn reaching out to power symbols. The PP criticized economic policies, military reform failures, and human rights violations, urging public scrutiny of the upcoming debate. The Nation, March 17
Vietnam
Conference reviews draft inspection report on Governments Party Committee. Inspection Delegation No. 1910 of the Politburo and the Party Central Committees Secretariat held a conference in Hanoi to review a draft report on the Governments Party Committee. The report highlighted progress in administrative restructuring, personnel downsizing, and policy implementation but noted challenges in digital transformation and institutional efficiency. NA Chairman Tran Thanh Man urged the committee to address issues and accelerate major national projects. Vietnam News, March 18
Vietnamese NA vice chairman meets with Indian Lok Sabha speaker. Vietnamese National Assembly Vice Chairman Nguyen Duc Hai met with Indian Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla in New Delhi to strengthen political trust and bilateral cooperation. They discussed expanding trade, defense, and cultural ties, with a goal of reaching $20 billion in trade. Hai also thanked India for its support in restoring Vietnam’s Cham tower complexes and called for more Indian investment in infrastructure and high-tech industries. Vietnam News, March 18
Myanmar
U.S. aid cuts to Myanmar are having catastrophic impact, U.N. rapporteur says. U.S. foreign aid cuts are worsening Myanmar’s humanitarian crisis, with the United Nations warning of potential famine and increased violence. U.N. Special Rapporteur Thomas Andrews criticized the Trump administration’s 90-day freeze on foreign assistance, saying it has disrupted food and medical programs, leaving HIV patients untreated. The World Food Programme reductions could exacerbate hunger, pushing more people into human trafficking and forced migration. Olivia Le Poidevin, Reuters, March 17
Myanmar junta airstrikes kill 41 civilians at monastery and market. At least 41 civilians, including children and novice monks, were killed in Myanmar military airstrikes on a crowded market in Mandalay Region and a monastery in Shan State. Fourteen people died when a fighter jet bombed Sein Yadanar Monastery, while another 27 were killed in Letpanhla village. The National Unity Government condemned the attacks as violations of international humanitarian law. The Irrawaddy, March 17
Laos
China on track to become Laos top trading partner. China is set to surpass Thailand as Laos top trading partner after bilateral trade surged to 8.23 billion in 2024, a 15.91 percent increase from the previous year. Laos exports to China rose 21.4 percent, while imports increased 9.8 percent. The China-Laos Railway has transported over 50 million tons of freight since 2021, boosting trade. Chinese investment in Laos now exceeds 18 billion across 927 projects. Vientiane Times, March 18
NA members debate changes to constitution. The National Assembly’s 9th Legislature convened a four-day extraordinary session to discuss amendments to the constitution, last revised in 2015. Lawmakers reviewed 122 articles, including five new ones, with changes proposed in governance, economic policy, and citizens' rights. National leaders emphasized aligning legal reforms with Party principles and socio-economic priorities. The session, attended by top government officials, continues until March 20. Bounfaeng Phaymanivong, Vientiane Times, March 18
Cambodia
New Sino-Cambodia cold chain shipping route launched. A new "cold chain + general cargo" shipping route between China’s Fangchenggang Port and Cambodia’s Koh Kong Port aims to enhance Cambodia’s export capacity, particularly in agriculture. The direct shipping line reduces transit time by 50 percent and logistical costs by over 20 percent. Cambodian officials see the route as a boost to trade relations and a way to expand agricultural exports to China. Hin Pisei, The Phnom Penh Post, March 18
Philippines
Go urges Filipinos to press for Dutertes return. Senator Bong Go called on Filipinos to demand the return of former President Rodrigo Duterte, who was taken into custody by the International Criminal Court. Go claimed Duterte’s leadership is needed to restore order and counter foreign influence. He accused the current administration of failing to protect Duterte and urged mass mobilization to pressure authorities. The Palace dismissed calls for intervention, citing legal constraints. Bernadette E. Tamayo, The Manila Times, March 18
Philippines Senate launches investigation into Dutertes ICC arrest. The Philippine Senate has opened an inquiry into the arrest and handover of former President Rodrigo Duterte to the International Criminal Court. Senator Imee Marcos, sister of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, announced the probe to determine if due process was followed. The move comes amid growing political tensions between the Marcos and Duterte families. A public hearing is scheduled for Thursday, with government officials summoned to testify. Al Jazeera, March 17
Indonesia
Opportunity for RI in Chinese factory relocations: govt. Deputy Industry Minister Faisol Riza said Indonesia could benefit from China’s factory relocations to ASEAN, particularly as 630 Chinese furniture factories move to Vietnam. He urged Indonesian entrepreneurs to attract investment, noting that U.S. tariff policies could impact Vietnam’s exports. The Kendal Special Economic Zone in Central Java has secured interest from Chinese firms, with 1,200 hectares prepared for expansion. Ahmad Muzdaffar and Resinta Sulistiyandari, ANTARA News, March 17
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan to establish Nuclear Energy Agency. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced the creation of a Nuclear Energy Agency under the presidency to oversee the country’s nuclear power development. Following a 2024 referendum approving Kazakhstan’s first nuclear plant, Tokayev proposed constructing three plants to form a full-fledged nuclear cluster. The government has shortlisted Russia’s Rosatom, South Korea’s KHNP, China’s CNNC, and France’s EDF as potential technology suppliers. Final site selections are expected by mid-2025. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, March 17
Uzbekistan
EU monitors Uzbekistans compliance with trade preferences scheme. A European Union Generalised Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+) monitoring mission arrived in Uzbekistan to assess its adherence to trade-related commitments. Officials will meet with Uzbek government representatives, civil society, and the UN to discuss human rights, labor rights, and environmental protection. Uzbekistan, a GSP+ beneficiary since 2021, has increased its EU exports, with 60 percent now benefiting from preferential market access. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, March 17
Tajikistan
Tajikistan to modernize energy, cotton, and education sectors with EU grants. The European Union has pledged €50 million in new grants to support Tajikistan’s sustainable development. The funding includes €20 million for modernizing the electricity grid, €20 million for sustainable cotton production, and €10 million for education and vocational training. European Commissioner Jozef Síkela met with President Emomali Rahmon to discuss expanding trade, investment, and green energy initiatives under the EU’s Global Gateway strategy. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, March 17
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan restore flights following landmark border agreement. Regular flights between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will resume in April 2025 after a successful test flight on the Bishkek-Khujand-Bishkek route. Kyrgyz airline Asman Airlines will operate weekly flights starting April 8, with one-way tickets priced at approximately $90. Tajikistan’s Somon Air has also resumed Dushanbe-Bishkek flights after nearly four years. The flight resumption follows a historic border demarcation agreement signed by both nations on March 13. Anton Chipegin, The Times of Central Asia, March 17
Northeast Asia
From the Third Plenum to the 'Two Sessions' Meeting: Reviewing China's Management of its Economy. China's recent policy moves indicate a robust support for short- and medium-term economic growth. The leadership's focus has transitioned from real estate investment to high-technology manufacturing, aiming to create high-wage employment and achieve technological self-sufficiency amidst external pressures. The 2025 Government Work Report focuses on a proactive fiscal policy with increased central government spending and a prudent monetary policy to ensure liquidity. Additionally, the report addresses the importance of boosting domestic consumption, improving business confidence, and stabilizing the property sector. These reflect a active approach to sustain economic momentum and adapt to evolving global challenges. Sourabh Gupta, Institute for China-America Studies, March 17
U.S. Aid Cuts Are a Soft Power Surrender to China. The United States has significantly reduced its foreign aid programs, with approximately 83% of USAID initiatives cut, ending seven decades of global development leadership. This reduction allows China to re-emerge as the world's largest bilateral development partner, surpassing the U.S. in over 40 countries. China's development assistance, primarily through concessional and semi-concessional loans, had previously surpassed U.S. support in 66 countries by 2016 but declined post-2017 due to concerns over debt sustainability and domestic challenges. The recent U.S. aid cuts shift influence to China, especially in resource-rich regions of Southern and West Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific, potentially altering global partnerships and diminishing U.S. soft power. Riley Duke, Lowy Institute, March 17
Far From Normal: An Augmented Assessment of China's State Support. China's industrial policy employs a wide array of state-support mechanisms, resulting in extensive market distortions that surpass those of other major economies. These mechanisms include direct grants, tax incentives, and below-market access to finance, equity, land, energy, and other inputs. The scale and pervasiveness of such support provide significant advantages to domestic firms, affecting global trade dynamics. Notably, over 98% of A-share listed companies in China received subsidies in 2020. While China has reduced some non-WTO-compliant practices since its WTO accession, many current policies remain effectively discriminatory and challenging to monitor, particularly due to the involvement of local governments in disbursing grants and tax incentives. This systemic state involvement in the economy presents unique challenges to the rules-based trading system. Camille Boullenois, Agatha Kratz, and Daniel H. Rosen, Rhodium Group, March 17
RedNote Walks China's Digital Tightrope. In January 2025, following the U.S. ban on TikTok, over 700,000 American users rapidly migrated to RedNote, a Chinese social media app known domestically as Xiaohongshu, propelling it to the top of U.S. app store download rankings. This unexpected influx created unprecedented cultural exchanges between U.S. and Chinese users under the hashtag 'TikTok refugees.' Traditionally, Chinese platforms operate under a 'one app, two systems' model, maintaining separate versions for domestic and international users to align with China's stringent regulatory environment. RedNote's unified platform challenges this approach, prompting discussions on whether Beijing will implement AI-driven content moderation to manage foreign influence without bifurcating the app. Xiangyu Ma and Jiawei Zhang, East Asia Forum, March 18.
China's Export Boom Is Squeezing Middle-Income Asia. China's recent manufacturing-focused stimulus measures have extended its domestic supply chain, leading to a surge in exports that challenges industrial economies worldwide, particularly in developing middle-income Asian countries. These nations, closely linked to China as suppliers and competitors, face increased pressure due to China's upskilled labor force and high-tech industrial policies like 'Made in China 2025.' The proportion of tertiary-educated workers in China has risen, reducing labor costs in skill-intensive industries. Subsidies targeting high-tech sectors further increase China's global competitiveness. Consequently, middle-income countries may experience a decline in their skill-intensive industries, potentially moving focus back to primary sectors like agriculture and mining. This trend could discourage educational investments, hindering human capital development essential for sustained economic growth. To counter these challenges, affected nations should strengthen their educational systems and promote productivity across various industries, aiming to find profitable niches within global manufacturing. Ian Coxhead and Varan Kitayaporn, East Asia Forum, March 17
Taking Consultation in China Seriously: The People's Political Consultative Conferences. The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) serves as a key advisory body within China's political framework, operating alongside the National People's Congress (NPC) during the annual "Two Sessions" meetings. While often perceived as a ceremonial entity, the CPPCC plays a significant role in the consultative processes of governance. Delegates from diverse backgrounds, including government officials, academics, and private entrepreneurs, submit proposals addressing various societal issues. Although these proposals are non-binding, the government is obligated to respond, reflecting a structured mechanism for incorporating diverse perspectives into policy discussions. Recent trends indicate a professionalization within the CPPCC, with an emphasis on the quality and substance of submissions. Delegates are encouraged to base their proposals on empirical research and field studies. This evolution shows the CPPCC's potential to influence policy by integrating specialized knowledge and grassroots insights into the decision-making process. Felix Wiebrecht, China Observers, March 18
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia Should Take the Lead in Tackling the AI Climate Conundrum. Artificial intelligence (AI) offers significant benefits, such as improved disaster forecasting and enhanced efficiency in urban services. However, the energy consumption of data centers supporting AI is substantial, primarily relying on fossil fuels, thereby contributing to greenhouse gas emissions. Projections indicate that electricity usage by data centers for AI and cryptocurrency could more than double from 460 terawatt-hours in 2022 to over 1,000 terawatt-hours by 2026, equating to the current consumption levels of major nations. In Southeast Asia, energy demand from data centers is expected to rise by 160% by 2030. To address this, the region must implement standard criteria to measure AI's environmental impact, enforce stringent environmental regulations, and improve transparency regarding emissions. Adopting innovative, energy-efficient AI models and situating data centers near renewable energy sources are strategic steps toward sustainable development. Vinod Thomas, Fulcrum, March 17
Musk, Myanmar, and the Murky Future of Internet Freedom. Myanmar's resistance groups and civil society organizations have increasingly relied on Elon Musk's Starlink satellite internet service to circumvent government-imposed internet blackouts and maintain communication. This dependence on foreign-owned networks, while providing critical access, introduces vulnerabilities, as access can be revoked or manipulated by external actors. The military junta has sought ways to track and intercept satellite communications, potentially endangering users. Additionally, Musk's unpredictable decision-making raises concerns about the stability of such services. To mitigate these risks, Myanmar's opposition groups should diversify their digital infrastructure and consider alternative technologies, such as localized mesh networks, to maintain secure and independent communication channels. Surachanee Sriyai, Fulcrum, March 18
Oceania
Bougainville Continues Its Struggle for Independence. In 2019, Bougainville, an autonomous region of Papua New Guinea (PNG), held a non-binding referendum where over 98% of voters favored independence. Despite this overwhelming support, progress toward actual independence has been slow. Bougainville's President, Ishmael Toroama, a former rebel commander, has prioritized independence but faces challenges, including political delays in PNG's parliament and the need to build institutional and fiscal capacity for a viable sovereign state. The region's distinct identity and historical grievances over resource exploitation have fueled longstanding secessionist sentiments. In 2021, an agreement was reached to grant Bougainville independence by 2027, pending ratification by PNG's parliament. As of March 2025, this ratification has not occurred, leaving Bougainville's path to nationhood uncertain. Marcus Ray, The Diplomat, March 17