China
China codifies ethnic assimilation with new ‘unity’ law as it counters the West. China passed a new ethnic unity law that analysts say creates a legal basis to counter Western ideological influence and assimilate minority groups. The National People’s Congress approved the measure at the close of the annual two sessions by a vote of 2,756 to three, with three abstentions. The legislature approved the environmental code, the 15th five-year plan outline, and the 2026 budget resolution in separate votes. Xinlu Liang, South China Morning Post, March 12
China’s nuclear warhead storage a ‘highly concentrated risk’, U.S. report says. A U.S. Air University report said much of China’s nuclear stockpile is stored at a single central facility known as Base 67, or Hongchuan, in the Qinling Mountains. The report described the site as hardened and well guarded but warned that the concentration creates risk. It said a single narrow access road could slow military operations if blocked during a conflict. Liu Zhen, South China Morning Post, March 12.
Serbian president confirms his country owns Chinese supersonic missiles after photo leak. President Aleksandar Vucic confirmed Serbia has Chinese supersonic surface-attack cruise missiles after photos of weapons mounted on MiG-29 jets spread online. He said Serbia has a significant number of missiles and will acquire more, but gave no details. Analysts believe the weapons are CM-400AKG missiles, an export version of China’s YJ-12, with a speed near hypersonic. South China Morning Post, March 12
Sanctioned Rubio to take part in Trump’s China trip despite previous missed opportunities. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to join President Donald Trump’s China trip after showing little interest in prior invitations from Beijing, according to sources. His presence could ease friction around the visit as frustration has grown in Beijing over limited preparation. China sanctioned Rubio in 2020, but the foreign ministry said high-level communication between the two countries remains necessary. Dewey Sim, South China Morning Post, March 12
China widens BHP iron ore ban amid contract talks, sources say. China Mineral Resources Group told mills and traders they will be barred from taking delivery of Newman fines held at ports starting late next week, widening restrictions on BHP ore during 2026 contract talks. Earlier bans covered Jimblebar fines and Jinbao products. Traders fear more limits and are trying to sell remaining cargoes as benchmark iron ore prices rise. Reuters staff, Reuters, March 12
Japan
Japan, U.S. to expand classified info sharing in defense cooperation. Japan and the United States plan to widen classified information sharing to strengthen deterrence and response capabilities ahead of the March 19 Takaichi-Trump summit. Tokyo is also considering a U.S. security cloud service. The two sides may use artificial intelligence to support command decisions and could expand joint missile production, including Patriot interceptors, as demand for munitions rises. Kyodo News, March 12.Cabinet approves bill to upgrade intelligence and research office. Japan’s cabinet approved a bill to upgrade the Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office into a stronger national intelligence body with wider coordinating authority and a prime minister-led national intelligence committee. The change would move the office closer to the National Security Secretariat and aim to centralize intelligence analysis as security concerns grow over China, North Korea, and Russia. Himari Semans, The Japan Times, March 13
U.S. opens trade probes against Japan, over a dozen other countries. Donald Trump’s administration launched Section 301 investigations into China, Japan, and more than a dozen other economies to build a new legal basis for tariffs after the Supreme Court struck down much of its earlier regime. USTR chief Jamieson Greer said the probes target unfair practices tied to excess manufacturing capacity and aim to prepare new duties within 150 days. The review could also expand to issues such as digital services, rice, seafood, and forced labor. Kyodo News, March 12
South Korea
South Korea to host French President Macron for April 2-3 state visit, Blue House says. President Lee Jae Myung will host French President Emmanuel Macron for a state visit to South Korea on April 2 and 3. The two leaders are set to hold a welcome ceremony, summit talks, agreement signings, and a state luncheon on April 3. Their agenda includes trade, investment, artificial intelligence, quantum technology, space, nuclear energy, and regional and global issues. Kyu-seok Shim, Reuters, March 13
Gov’t files objection to court mediation for Japan-funded foundation to pay damages to victim of wartime sexual slavery. South Korea objected to court mediation that would have used assets of the defunct Reconciliation and Healing Foundation to pay 100 million won to a bereaved family member of a wartime sexual slavery victim. The gender ministry said the foundation does not need to preserve a claim on Japan’s behalf. The foundation still holds 6.1 billion won in remaining assets. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, March 13
Lee’s approval rating hits highest level since inauguration: poll. President Lee Jae Myung’s approval rating rose to 66% in a Gallup Korea survey of 1,002 adults, the highest since he took office. Negative views fell to 24%. Respondents most often cited economic policy and diplomacy as strengths. Support for the ruling Democratic Party rose to 47%, while backing for the People Power Party fell to 20%. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, March 13
U.S. trade probe puts pressure on South Korea over surplus. Washington opened a Section 301 probe into 16 economies, including South Korea, after the Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. U.S. officials cited Korea’s large trade surplus and possible excess capacity in sectors such as electronics, autos, steel, ships, and petrochemicals. Analysts said steel and petrochemicals face the greatest risk, while Seoul plans to submit its position by April 15 and guard against new scrutiny of digital rules and other barriers. Ahn Sung-mi, The Korea Herald, March 12
North Korea
Passenger train linking N. Korea, China arrives in Beijing for first time in 6 years. A passenger train from Pyongyang arrived in Beijing on Friday, restoring service between the two capitals after a six-year suspension linked to the pandemic. The train left Pyongyang on Thursday morning and reached Beijing on schedule at 8:40 a.m. A return train from Beijing departed the same day and is due to arrive in Pyongyang on Friday evening. Kim Soo-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, March 13
Vietnam
Vietnam receives first LNG shipment of 2026 amid Middle East tensions. Vietnam received its first LNG cargo of 2026 at the Thi Vai terminal, with about 63,000 tonnes equal to 87 million cubic metres of gas. PV GAS said the vessel passed through the Strait of Hormuz before tensions rose. The cargo will support power generation and energy security. PV GAS has arranged two more shipments, says stocks can cover electricity demand through April, and plans broader sourcing from May. Vietnam News, March 12
Thailand
BJT-led bloc claims majority. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said a Bhumjaithai-led coalition holds about 291 MPs, enough to form a government. He said the alliance with Pheu Thai and nine smaller parties has enough strength to run parliament and the administration. Sophon Zaram will be Bhumjaithai’s nominee for House speaker, while Mallika Jirapunvanit is set for first deputy speaker. Bangkok Post, March 12
Anutin says coalition complete, rules out Klatham, Democrats. Anutin Charnvirakul said the coalition lineup is final and has enough MPs without adding Klatham or the Democrat Party. He said Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai will jointly nominate the House speaker and two deputy speakers after parliament opens. Cabinet positions have not been discussed yet, with talks set to follow the speaker vote and the selection of a prime minister. Mongkol Bangprapa and Online Reporters, Bangkok Post, March 12
Cambodia
Cambodia, Singapore pledge enhanced cooperation on Sokhonn visit. Foreign ministers Prak Sokhonn and Vivian Balakrishnan pledged stronger cooperation in politics, trade, food and energy security, law enforcement, defense, workforce development, and people-to-people ties. Sokhonn briefed Singapore on the Cambodia-Thailand border situation and displaced residents. Both sides stressed peace, security, and regular high-level exchanges, while Lawrence Wong said the visit reflects close friendship and deepens longstanding ties. Cambodianess, March 12
Philippines
Palace summons oil firms to secure fuel supply, prevent excessive price hikes. Malacañang met oil company executives to keep fuel supplies steady and prevent sharp price increases as global oil volatility rises. Executive Secretary Ralph Recto said the talks centered on stable supply, stable prices, and possible shipping disruptions from geopolitical tension. Oil firms said operational challenges remain manageable. The government is exploring alternative sources, while conservation measures and subsidies for transport groups remain part of its response. Catherine S. Valente, The Manila Times, March 13
Singapore
Singapore has US$27b trade deficit with U.S., to seek clarification on U.S. Trade Representative probe: MTI. Singapore’s trade ministry said a new U.S. probe rests on incorrect trade data and a false claim about excess manufacturing capacity. Citing U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis figures, it said Singapore ran a 2024 goods deficit of $1.7 billion and a services deficit of $25.1 billion with the United States. MTI also said industrial occupancy is about 90 per cent and industrial land has declined. The Straits Times, March 12
Taiwan
Taiwan parties agree government can sign stalled agreements on U.S. arms deals. Taiwan’s three main parties agreed the government can sign U.S. letters of offer and acceptance for four arms sales packages before budget reviews are finished. Officials warned Taiwan could lose its place in the production queue if deadlines are missed. The packages include HIMARS, TOW missiles, Javelins, and M109A7 howitzers. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, March 12.
China's new ethnic unity law could target Taiwanese, Taipei officials warn. Taiwan officials said China’s new ethnic unity law could give Beijing another legal basis to pursue people it sees as separatists. The law says citizens must protect sovereignty and allows legal action beyond China’s borders over acts that harm ethnic unity. Taipei warned the vague duty to promote unity could be used in cross-Strait cases despite China’s courts having no jurisdiction on the island. Ben Blanchard and Yimou Lee, Reuters, March 12
U.S. Navy patrols Taiwan Strait before Xi-Trump summit, triggering PLA manoeuvres. A U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon flew through the Taiwan Strait in international airspace weeks before the Xi-Trump summit, prompting PLA jet activity after a pause near Taiwan. Taiwan said five PLA sorties took place in 24 hours, with three crossing the median line. Analysts said the response showed Beijing’s displeasure but was not serious enough to disrupt summit planning. Amber Wang, South China Morning Post, March 12
Premier directs MOEA to secure gas supplies amid Middle East tensions. Premier Cho Jung-tai ordered the economic ministry to secure natural gas for May and raise U.S. imports in June as the Middle East conflict threatens energy supply. Taiwan said gas is secured through April and said more measures are being prepared for the next two months. The government is also tracking fertilizer, shipping costs, consumer prices, and fuel subsidies while CPC absorbs much of recent oil-price increases. Lai Yu-chen and Ko Lin, Focus Taiwan, March 12
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan constitutional referendum fact sheet. Kazakhstan will hold a referendum on March 15 on a near-total rewrite of its 1995 constitution. Supporters say the draft would replace the bicameral parliament with a unicameral Kurultai, restore the vice presidency, and make policymaking more flexible. Critics say vague provisions could still let authorities limit speech, civil society, and minority rights, while the president would keep broad appointment powers and strong influence over succession. Eurasianet, March 12
East Asia
Does Chinese investment in US clean energy sectors help or hurt America? The United States depends on clean energy supply chains dominated by China even as it worries about security, coercion, cyber risk, and political backlash. Chinese capital and manufacturing expertise could speed US factory building, power supply growth, job creation, and emissions cuts at a moment of rising electricity demand and policy uncertainty. Blocking much of this investment could raise costs, slow deployment, and weaken innovation in batteries, storage, and vehicles. Allowing investment without safeguards could expose sensitive technology, deepen reliance on one supplier, and erode public trust. A durable policy requires targeted guardrails that protect security and preserve industrial growth. Mary E. Gallagher and Joyce Yang, Brookings, March 12
Hormuz crisis: Should China do more to secure global chokepoints? The conflict linked to US and Israeli strikes on Iran has cut Strait of Hormuz traffic by more than 90 percent without a formal closure, driving oil, gas, fuel, and fertilizer prices higher across Asia. China faces acute exposure because half of its imported oil and one-third of its LNG come from the Gulf, and Beijing has told major refiners to halt diesel and gasoline exports while some plants reduce runs. The disruption reinforces a core lesson for Beijing. Energy security depends on open sea lanes at chokepoints from Hormuz to Malacca, Suez, Panama, and Gibraltar, which may push China toward a larger overseas naval role. Christian Le Miere, ThinkChina, March 12
Hong Kong’s property market has turned. Hong Kong’s housing rebound has lifted rents after years of falling prices, and the rise has reached subdivided units and coffin homes. Lower US interest rates cut mortgage costs and helped finance and equity markets, while mainland firms and migrants added demand. Buyers with Mandarin names accounted for about a quarter of home purchases last year. A new ordinance sets minimum standards for subdivided units, including floor space, windows, and private toilets. The rules promise safer housing and tighter oversight, but renovation costs may push rents beyond the reach of low-income tenants. Public and transitional housing may ease pressure, yet many workers, refugees, and migrants face long commutes, limited eligibility, or displacement. The Economist, March 12
STEM surge before the slide. China’s new university expansion targets elite institutions and strategic STEM fields such as AI, integrated circuits, new energy, and biomedicine rather than broad enrolment growth. The plan seeks to supply talent for industrial upgrading, support spending, and delay job market entry for unemployed youth while the higher education age group grows through about 2032. The policy cuts humanities places as officials try to raise the share of science and engineering graduates. The strategy carries risks. Universities need faculty, labs, equipment, and research depth to match new places, and blind imitation could weaken training and job prospects. After the demographic peak, shrinking cohorts could leave campuses underused and strain budgets, staffing, and long-term planning. CHINA POLICY, March 12
Japan's fraught energy diplomacy with Iran remains at mercy of US policy. Japan’s energy ties with Iran have long turned on US policy, from the loss of the Azadegan oil field project to the halt in Iranian crude imports after renewed sanctions in 2019. The shale boom then raised the United States as an energy exporter, but Japan still gets more than 90 percent of its crude from the Middle East. The current regional crisis has exposed that dependence and raised the risk that Washington will press Tokyo to buy more US oil and gas, join upstream projects, and adjust to new supply channels such as Venezuelan crude. That path would require refinery investment and could clash with decarbonization goals, leaving Japan with a hard energy diplomacy choice. Toru Takahashi, Nikkei Asia, March 12
China's EV surge is dismantling Japan's auto empire in Southeast Asia. Chinese electric vehicle makers are taking market share from Japanese car brands across Southeast Asia as EV adoption rises and governments back new supply chains with subsidies, tax breaks, and factory incentives. BYD and other Chinese firms pair low prices with regional assembly and battery integration, while Vietnam’s VinFast has built a strong position at home and is expanding abroad. Japanese manufacturers have responded with plant cuts, restructuring, and a push into hybrids, but their position has weakened in key markets such as Thailand. The deeper challenge lies in technology and scale. Chinese firms lead in batteries, vertical integration, and software features that appeal to younger buyers, which threatens Japan’s long-standing industrial weight in the region. Tim Daiss, Nikkei Asia, March 12
Southeast Asia
Third nations can piece together a ruptured world order. States outside great power rivalry face a fractured rules-based order and cannot remain price takers. Three paths shape their response. Alignment places them along a line between major powers through balancing, hedging, or bandwagoning. Acquiescence uses symbolic gestures to calm an unpredictable power without long commitments. Mitigation steps off that line and seeks to reduce the causes of shocks through coalitions and new rules. ASEAN, CPTPP, and RCEP show how pathfinder groupings can sustain trade, cooperation, and dispute resolution even in a G-minus world where an uncooperative major power stands apart. Danny Quah, East Asia Forum, March 12
Indonesia’s bet on economic self-reliance. Indonesia treats food security, village cooperatives, school meals, and nickel processing as parts of a national resilience strategy shaped by trade wars and great power rivalry. Rice self-sufficiency in 2025 gave the country a record surplus and cut exposure to external shocks. The Free Nutritious Meals program links local farmers, fishers, kitchens, and logistics networks, while the Red and White cooperatives aim to strengthen rural supply, financing, and distribution. Downstreaming in nickel seeks more control over mineral value chains and less fiscal exposure to commodity swings. Critics warn that costs are high and revenues remain weak, but the policy view is that a deeper domestic economy will widen the tax base and support growth. Retno Maruti, Lowy Institute, March 12
The Unravelling of Thailand’s Military-Backed Parties. Thailand’s 2026 election wiped out the United Thai Nation Party and the Palang Pracharath Party, which former junta leaders built to preserve post-coup rule through electoral politics. Their collapse exposed weak voter ties, thin organization, and reliance on Prayut Chan-o-cha, Prawit Wongsuwan, state resources, patronage, and constitutional design rather than durable party building. The results marked a change in establishment strategy. Military coups carry higher costs, the Senate lost its role in choosing the prime minister, and military-branded parties have lost force. Bhumjaithai serves as the chief vehicle for conservative interests, using coalition strength, Senate links, and influence over referee bodies to block reform. Prajak Kongkirati and Napon Jatusripitak, FULCRUM, March 12