Asia Daily: June 4, 2025

China

China lifts in public opinion around the world as U.S. drops in Trump 2.0, survey data shows. China surpassed the United States in global favourability for the first time since 2020, according to Morning Consult, which tracked views in 41 countries. From January to April, U.S. ratings declined in 38 countries, while China gained in 34, with tariff policies under the Trump administration cited as a key factor. Only 13 nations remained pro-U.S. as of May. Xinlu Liang, South China Morning Post, June 3

Global alarms rise as China's critical mineral export ban takes hold. China’s suspension of rare earth exports has disrupted global supply chains, prompting warnings from automakers in Germany, India, and the U.S. about production delays. The restrictions, seen as leverage amid the Trump administration’s tariff war, have halted shipments vital to vehicles, semiconductors, and military equipment. Jarrett Renshaw, Ernest Scheyder and Jeff Mason, Reuters, June 3

Japan

Japan party execs bracing for possibility of Diet dissolution. Ruling party leaders warned that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba could dissolve the lower house and trigger a snap election if a no-confidence motion is submitted by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan. The CDPJ may delay action due to a pension reform deal. Tensions mount as Ishiba’s minority government struggles with inflation and U.S. tariff pressure. Kyodo News, June 3

Japan’s chief negotiator urges review of Trump tariffs on metals. Economic revitalization minister Ryosei Akazawa called on the United States to reconsider its decision to double tariffs on steel and aluminum, describing the move as “extremely regrettable.” The announcement came just after a round of Japan-U.S. trade talks in Washington, where the issue was not raised. Chinami Tajika, The Asahi Shimbun, June 3

South Korea

Liberal Lee Jae-myung wins South Korea presidency in martial law 'judgement day'. Liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung won South Korea’s presidency with 49.3% of the vote in a snap election triggered by the ouster of Yoon Suk Yeol, who imposed martial law last year. Voter turnout reached nearly 80%. Lee pledged national unity, economic revival, and dialogue with North Korea. Conservative rival Kim Moon-soo conceded. The new administration faces challenges including U.S. trade friction and deep societal divisions. Joyce Lee, Ju-Min Park, Daewoung Kim, Yeobin Park, Hyunsu Yim and David Brunnstrom, Reuters, June 3

Lee formally begins presidential term. President Lee Jae-myung officially began his five-year term on June 4 at 6:21 a.m. after the National Election Commission certified his election victory. He assumes office without a transition, following the snap election triggered by former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s removal. Lee, of the Democratic Party, won 49.42% of the vote and will be sworn in during a scaled-down ceremony. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, June 3

North Korea

N. Korea orders MiG-29 fighter upgrades after air-to-air missile test. North Korea has ordered upgrades to its MiG-29 fighters following a successful live-fire air-to-air missile test. Leader Kim Jong Un directed multiple defense institutions to enhance radar detection, jamming systems, and missile control to enable beyond-visual-range combat. The initiative includes imported avionics components and aims to create a fully integrated combat platform. Jeong Tae Joo, Daily NK, June 4

Vietnam

Vietnam firms to sign MoUs to buy $2 bln of U.S. farm produce. Vietnamese companies will sign memorandums of understanding with U.S. partners to purchase $2 billion in agricultural products as part of ongoing trade negotiations. The deals include $800 million worth of corn, wheat, soybean meal, and distillers grains from Iowa over three years. The move aims to offset a $123 billion trade gap and avoid steep U.S. tariffs. Khanh Vu and Phuong Nguyen, Reuters, June 3

Myanmar

Myanmar junta says extends temporary ceasefire to June 30. Myanmar's military government extended a temporary ceasefire through June to support recovery efforts after a March 28 earthquake killed over 3,700 people. The truce, initially declared in early April, was matched by opposition groups, who also prolonged their own ceasefire. Despite the announcements, airstrikes and artillery attacks have continued in parts of the country. John Mair, Reuters, June 3

China pushing Myanmar ethnic armies to halt offensives along BRI: sources. China has urged the Kachin Independence Army and Arakan Army to cease military operations in Bhamo and Kyaukphyu, key sites in its Belt and Road Initiative. Special envoy Deng Xijun offered improved ties in return, as China seeks to preserve regional stability. The push follows recent rebel gains and aims to secure BRI infrastructure amid fears of junta collapse. The Irrawaddy, June 3

Philippines

Philippines keeps Cabinet mostly unchanged after 'bold reset' call. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. retained key Cabinet members, including the secretaries of agriculture, education, labour, health, and social welfare, after urging courtesy resignations following poor midterm election results. Core economic, defense, justice, and interior officials were also kept. Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo remains in position pending confirmation for a U.N. post. Further administrative changes are still under review. Mikhail Flores, Reuters, June 3

Chinese carrier strike group nears PH. China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier led a strike group to the furthest point yet in the Western Pacific, operating east of the Philippines and conducting over 260 flight operations in late May. Japan tracked the deployment, calling it unusually intense. Simultaneously, Chinese warships and amphibious forces conducted drills in the South China Sea. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, June 4

Malaysia

Govt to set up task force addressing serious financial irregularities, says Anwar. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced the formation of a special task force to tackle significant financial irregularities identified in recent audits. The decision, made during a national governance committee meeting, aims to bolster fiscal credibility through targeted reforms. The initiative aligns with proposed amendments to the Audit Act 1957 to enhance oversight, transparency, and accountability. Malay Mail, June 4

Can a PM be sued? High Court to rule on Anwar’s immunity bid tomorrow. The Kuala Lumpur High Court will decide whether to refer eight legal questions to the Federal Court, including whether Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim enjoys immunity from lawsuits. The case stems from a suit filed by his former aide over an alleged 2016 sexual assault. Anwar's lawyers argue the suit undermines executive functions and separation of powers. Malay Mail, June 3

Singapore

PM Wong to make introductory visit to Philippines from June 4 to 5. Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong will travel to the Philippines for an official visit on June 4 and 5 at the invitation of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The visit, Wong’s first to the country as prime minister, will focus on strengthening bilateral ties and exploring cooperation in trade, green energy, education, and digital economy. Ng Wei Kai, The Straits Times, June 3

Mongolia

Resource-rich Mongolia faces political uncertainty after the prime minister resigns. Mongolia is confronting political turmoil following Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai’s resignation after losing a parliamentary confidence vote sparked by public outrage over corruption and his son’s lavish spending. Despite defending his integrity, Oyun-Erdene admitted neglecting domestic issues. Christopher Bodeen, Didi Tang and Ken Moritsugu, Associated Press, June 3

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan eyes stronger ties with African nations, develops dedicated strategy. Kazakhstan is intensifying diplomatic and economic engagement with African countries through a new strategy targeting collaboration in trade, technology, and governance. The initiative follows a series of high-level visits and includes expanding diplomatic missions and boosting exports such as grain, fertilizers, and metal products. The country frames Africa as a key foreign policy priority. Assel Satubaldina, The Astana Times, June 3

Kazakhstan, China explore implementation of joint infrastructure projects. Kazakh Vice Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev met with He Yanfeng of Power China Chengdu Engineering Corporation to advance cooperation on major energy and infrastructure projects. Discussions focused on Kazakhstan’s utility modernization, city construction, and irrigation development. The sides agreed to expand personnel training and reaffirmed commitment to collaboration. Arailym Temirgaliyeva, Kazinform, June 3

Northeast Asia'

The Trump Administration's Emerging Strategic and Economic Framework for China. The second Trump administration is pursuing a sweeping recalibration of U.S. policy toward China centered on economic decoupling and military deterrence. Economically, the administration seeks to slash trade deficits by reshoring key industrial sectors, severing Chinese involvement in critical infrastructure, and imposing expansive export controls across advanced technology domains such as semiconductors, AI, and aerospace. Despite its clarity of goals, the administration lacks a defined end state or detailed implementation strategy, leading to market instability and uncertainty among allies. Strategically, the Indo-Pacific has become the singular focus of U.S. defense planning, supplanting decades of dual-theater readiness with a single-war construct prioritizing deterrence by denial. This includes a surge in U.S. military capabilities in the Western Pacific and a relative drawdown from Europe and the Middle East, reflecting the rise of the ‘prioritiser’ faction within Republican foreign policy circles. The administration also pressures allies to align with its China containment posture, offering tariff relief in exchange for the exclusion of China from sensitive supply chains. Whether this maximalist approach yields negotiated trade concessions from Beijing or further escalation remains uncertain, but the pivot marks a decisive rupture from the multilateral, interconnected framework of the post-Cold War era. Sourabh Gupta, ICAS, June 3

A Test for the Future of Global Ocean Law. Deep-sea mining has emerged as a geopolitical fault line between the United States and China. The U.S., under a new executive order from President Trump, has revived a unilateral approach that enables private companies to mine international seabeds without adherence to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), citing access to critical minerals for national security. In contrast, China remains committed to the multilateral system through the International Seabed Authority (ISA), holding multiple exploration contracts and participating in rule-making for the Mining Code. While the U.S. prioritizes regulatory autonomy and rapid commercialization, China emphasizes institutional legitimacy and long-term influence. Both approaches face scrutiny: the U.S. for potential legal fragmentation and environmental risks, and China for a lack of transparency and environmental accountability. As calls for a global moratorium on seabed mining grow, the future of ocean governance hinges on whether major powers can reconcile sovereignty with sustainability. The ISA’s ability to enforce a credible Mining Code will be critical. Nong Hong, CHINA US Focus, June 2

Geneva Talks Yield Positive Trade Dynamics. U.S.-China trade negotiations in Geneva concluded on May 12 with a joint statement heralded globally as a breakthrough, temporarily easing tensions and triggering a rebound in U.S. markets. The talks revealed mutual dependencies: America’s reindustrialization plans increasingly hinge on China’s advanced and cost-effective industrial system, while China seeks to sustain export growth amid rising scrutiny. The U.S. trade deficit, deeply tied to dollar hegemony and structural overvaluation, reflects a transfer of labor value from Chinese producers to American consumers. Despite high tariffs and protectionist rhetoric, the U.S. cannot insulate itself from global supply chains, especially for intermediate goods. The long-standing model of U.S. consumption fueled by cheap Chinese imports has suppressed inflation and elevated American welfare, even as it squeezed Chinese manufacturers’ margins. The Geneva statement shows the limits of unilateralism and the logic of economic interdependence. As global industrial competition increases, both nations must recalibrate strategies: the U.S. needs China’s manufacturing base, while China requires a stable export market. Long-term coexistence will depend on mutual adaptation rather than confrontation. Wang Yuzhu, CHINA US Focus, June 2

Vision and Pathways for U.S.-China Youth Exchanges in a New Era. The "50,000 in Five Years" initiative, launched by President Xi Jinping in 2023, aims to bring 50,000 American youth to China for study and cultural exchange. A new report by the Center for China and Globalization outlines strategic recommendations to fortify youth exchanges. Key obstacles include lingering travel restrictions, U.S. visa and partnership limitations, and high transportation costs. Conversely, China has streamlined visa processes and changed focus to second- and third-tier cities while focusing on science and entrepreneurship. The report proposes ten actions: establishing a stable bilateral mechanism independent of governments; leveraging subnational cooperation and think tank partnerships; expanding joint degree and internship programs; involving multinational corporations; and creating homestay and study-tour models. Digital exchange platforms and virtual immersion tools like VR are highlighted as scalable alternatives in geopolitically volatile contexts. A “third space” strategy encourages youth collaboration in developing regions through multilateral bodies like UNDP, aiming to create global cooperation skills and trust. These proposals show an urgent call for sustainable, adaptive engagement models that can withstand political disruptions while deepening mutual understanding between American and Chinese youth. James B. Heimowitz and Mabel Lu Miao, U.S.-China Perception Monitor, June 2

China’s Slow March Toward Cyber IDs. China will implement its new cyber ID system in mid-July. Administered by the Ministry of Public Security, each internet user will be assigned a unique "web number" linked to personal data. Though officially voluntary, state media promotion and application design suggest broad future enforcement. The system replaces fragmented data collection by private companies with a centralized government-issued credential, purportedly improving data security and reducing spam. However, critics highlight the potential for surveillance and behavioral control, noting the app’s quiet rollout in 2023 and its uptake by millions. Cyber IDs may eventually extend beyond online use, enabling ID verification for transport, healthcare, and more. Although framed as protective, this system grants authorities the technical ability to deny internet access at the individual level, raising concerns about censorship and civil liberties. Past breaches, including the 2022 Shanghai police database hack, further complicate public trust. Despite privacy reassurances, experts warn the platform may deepen state control over digital life, discouraging dissent and encouraging self-censorship. The program shows a long-term strategy to consolidate cyber governance under state authority. Alex Colville, China Media Project, June 4

V4–Taiwan Industrial Cooperation as a Strategic Response to a Shifting Global Order. Amid mounting global economic and energy pressures, Taiwan and the Visegrád Four (V4)—Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia—are exploring deeper industrial partnerships to increase resilience and strategic autonomy. The EU’s dependency on U.S. LNG and Chinese clean tech has exposed vulnerabilities, especially as the U.S. politicizes energy exports and China dominates global green technologies. V4 nations, highly industrialized yet energy-insecure, face dual challenges of decarbonization and economic competitiveness. Taiwan, similarly reliant on fossil imports and navigating geopolitical isolation, is advancing its clean energy roadmap while guarding its semiconductor leadership. Shared concerns have led to joint ventures in semiconductors, green energy, and electromobility, with Slovakia and Czechia attracting Taiwanese R&D and investment. Despite Hungary’s China alignment, Taiwanese firms remain active there. Yet, Taiwan’s pivot toward the U.S. raises doubts about its sustained focus on Europe. As both parties pursue diversification away from China, V4-Taiwan cooperation offers mutual gains in technology transfer, supply chain security, and industrial innovation, provided commitments are scaled up and institutionalized. Filip Křenek, China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe, June 4

How the US–China Education Crackdown is Fracturing the Future. New U.S. visa restrictions targeting Chinese students have increased educational decoupling between the two nations, threatening a long-standing pillar of bilateral exchange. On May 28, the State Department announced sweeping measures to revoke visas of Chinese nationals linked to the Communist Party or studying “critical fields,” sparking uncertainty for over 270,000 Chinese students currently in the U.S. The policy lacks clarity on definitions and criteria, broadening its potential impact and signaling growing discretion in visa adjudication. The move builds on Trump-era initiatives like Proclamation 10043 and has ignited backlash in China, where it is viewed as discriminatory and politically motivated. Once instrumental in creating mutual understanding and soft power influence, U.S.-bound education is now seen as risky by Chinese families. American universities, already reliant on international student fees, face reputational and financial strain. The decision mirrors earlier economic decoupling strategies, replacing educational collaboration with ideological distrust. China, meanwhile, is promoting domestic technological self-reliance and cultural assertiveness, with fewer Chinese aspiring to U.S. education. The crackdown could entrench nationalistic narratives and further isolate the two powers culturally and intellectually, deepening bilateral estrangement. Yang Danxu, ThinkChina, June 3

US, China and EU: The Race for Greenland’s Mineral Riches. Greenland has become a focal point of global resource competition, with the U.S., China, and the EU vying for influence over its vast reserves of rare earth elements, uranium, zinc, and nickel, all critical to green energy and tech industries. As melting ice unlocks access, Washington frames the island as a strategic asset, leveraging defense funding and diplomatic outreach, though recent efforts have faltered amid local resistance to perceived U.S. paternalism. China, long involved through firms like Shenghe Resources, faces suspicion tied to concerns over sovereignty, dual-use infrastructure, and past uranium-linked projects. Yet Beijing continues low-profile engagement under its Arctic economic strategy. The EU promotes sustainable, norm-based investment through frameworks like the Critical Raw Materials Act, but has yet to deliver substantive funding. Greenland’s government seeks balanced, respectful partnerships, showing a readiness to accept Chinese investment if Western promises remain unfulfilled. While mining offers economic autonomy, over-politicization and environmental risk loom large. Greenland’s trajectory now tests whether great power rivalries can yield to cooperative governance and ethical resource development in the fragile Arctic. Hong Nong, ThinkChina, June 3

Southeast Asia

Indonesian Extremists Divided Over Syria’s Regime Change. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024 has sharply divided Indonesian extremist factions, revealing deep ideological rifts and triggering a resurgence in radical narratives. Syrian opposition group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led the offensive, sparking celebrations among some Indonesian netizens who glorified jihad and promoted migration to Syria as a religious duty. While Al-Qaeda-aligned figures praised HTS as fulfilling apocalyptic prophecy, Islamic State supporters denounced it as apostate and pro-Western. Hizb ut-Tahrir affiliates criticized HTS’s five-year Islamic constitution as insufficient, demanding a full caliphate instead. These divisions have intensified online propaganda and deepened sectarian antagonisms, especially toward Indonesia’s Shia community. Social media platforms saw a spike in the glorification of HTS-linked Indonesian fighters and renewed calls for jihad, including support for other militant causes like Hamas and the Houthis. The ideological fragmentation and symbolic resonance of the Syrian conflict among Indonesian extremists pose a growing risk of radicalization, especially as mainstream discourse absorbs elements of this rhetoric. Indonesian authorities have increased surveillance and content takedown efforts, but analysts stress the importance of counter-narratives to address the theological and emotional appeal of these developments. Nurrisha Ismail, East Asia Forum, June 4

People’s Action Party Prevails in Singapore. Singapore’s 2025 general election reaffirmed the dominance of the People’s Action Party (PAP), returning Prime Minister Lawrence Wong to power with an expanded mandate amid economic uncertainty. Despite the presence of 10 opposition parties and two independents, the PAP’s message of stability resonated with voters, who opted for continuity over change. The tightly regulated campaign saw robust turnout at opposition rallies, though these did not translate into seats. The Workers’ Party (WP) retained its position as the leading opposition force but remains geographically concentrated. Key campaign issues included cost of living, housing, fiscal policy, and migrant labor. Though scandals had dented the PAP’s image, its leadership successfully argued that its economic stewardship was essential in a volatile global environment, especially following U.S. tariff shocks. The campaign was also marked by new faces and social media engagement, but structural electoral factors like opaque boundary revisions and the lack of cabinet-level opposition figures reinforced the PAP’s advantage. While Singaporeans showed an appetite for alternative voices, the final results show a prevailing preference for experienced governance over experimental changes. Meredith Weiss, East Asia Forum, June 3

Plantation Workers Can Barely Live on Malaysia’s Minimum Wage. Malaysia’s new minimum wage of RM1,700, effective since February 2025, remains insufficient for migrant workers in the palm oil sector, particularly in Sabah. Field research across three certified plantations revealed that most harvesters earn RM1,000–1,300 monthly, while women in spraying and fertilizing roles earn even less. Many workers rely on overtime or side jobs to approach the legal minimum, often spending 60–70% of wages on basic food, which lacks nutritional diversity. The estimated living wage, based on the Anker methodology, is RM2,235. Well above the statutory floor and aligned with economists’ recommendations. Weak enforcement exacerbates the issue: Malaysia employs just 400 labour inspectors nationwide, under-equipped to monitor vast plantation areas. Workers frequently fall into debt to afford necessities, highlighting wage suppression despite the sector’s profitability. Institutional gaps and porous borders further disadvantage the predominantly Indonesian and Filipino workforce. Authors call for enhanced inspector training, anonymous grievance mechanisms, and more assertive roles by sustainability bodies like RSPO and MSPO to enforce living wages. Without stronger oversight and commitment to dignified pay, the sector risks perpetuating systemic exploitation. Alfian Al-Ayubby, FULCRUM, June 3

Thailand’s 2025 Municipal Elections: Triumph of Tradition or Transition?
Thailand’s May 2025 municipal elections showed the enduring dominance of local political families, or baan yai, despite increased urbanization and the rise of national political parties. Conducted across 76 provinces excluding Bangkok and Pattaya, the elections involved over 65,000 candidates vying for mayorships and council seats across 2,469 municipalities. While national parties like Pheu Thai and Bhumjai Thai succeeded by informally backing powerful local figures, reformist efforts such as the People’s Party (PP) failed to gain traction due to weak grassroots networks and limited appeal in provincial cities. Vote-buying allegations and the absence of party affiliations at the local level continue to benefit entrenched elites, who are valued for delivering tangible outcomes like infrastructure upgrades. The persistence of these dynasties reveals that local politics in Thailand remains driven by patronage and name recognition rather than ideology. Despite decentralization reforms initiated in 1997, true political pluralism at the municipal level remains elusive. National-level electoral strength does not easily translate to local influence without alignment with established local networks. As a result, municipal elections largely reflect elite continuity rather than democratic transformation. Paul Chambers, FULCRUM, June 4

South Asia

How the Recent Indo-Pakistani Clash Sparked a Battle of Narratives Across Borders. Operation Sindoor, India’s retaliatory strike after a deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir, has ignited a transnational ideological conflict, particularly across Southeast Asia. While both India and Pakistan claimed victory, the true fallout lies in the digital domain, where eschatological jihadist narratives like Ghazwatul Hind have gained momentum. These narratives, amplified by groups such as AQIS through platforms like Telegram and TikTok, have reframed a regional conflict into a global ideological struggle, influencing Southeast Asian audiences in local languages. Extremists exploit digital tools to blend theological rhetoric with emotional symbolism, fueling radicalization in Indonesia and Malaysia. Pro-jihadist messaging increasingly intertwines foreign grievances with local tensions, as evidenced by terrorism trial records and online mobilizations targeting embassies and minority communities. Despite robust counterterrorism frameworks, governments struggle to counteract the scale and sophistication of digital extremist networks. A paradigm shift from surveillance to strategic communication is needed, focusing on emotionally resonant, culturally grounded narratives from credible messengers to displace extremist content. Southeast Asia must invest in narrative resilience to counteract ideological contagion and prevent foreign conflicts from becoming local radicalization triggers. Noor Huda Ismail and Prakoso Permono, RSIS, June 3

---