Asia Daily: June 3, 2024
News
Modi's alliance to win big in India election, exit polls project. Exit polls indicate that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance is set to win a significant majority in India's general election, possibly securing a two-thirds majority in the 543-member lower house. Projections suggest the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could win between 353 and 401 seats, surpassing expectations. The opposition, led by Rahul Gandhi's Congress party, dismisses the exit polls as biased. Official results will be announced on Tuesday, June 4. YP Rajesh, Sakshi Dayal, and Tanvi Mehta, Reuters, June 3
Taiwan’s military to stage live-fire drills aimed at PLA attack from the sea. Taiwan will conduct live-fire drills along its coast and at the Matsu outpost, simulating amphibious and naval attacks from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The exercises follow PLA's recent war games around Taiwan and a stern warning from Beijing’s new defense minister. The drills, involving land-based weapons and ship-launched weapons, will take place throughout June at various locations, including Tainan, New Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung, to enhance combat readiness. Lawrence Chung, South China Morning Post, June 3
North Korea says it will stop sending trash balloons as South Korea vows strong retaliation. North Korea announced it would temporarily halt sending trash-carrying balloons into South Korea, following South Korea's threat of "unbearable" retaliatory measures. The balloons, part of North Korea's response to South Korean leafleting campaigns, have carried waste materials into the South. South Korea's potential retaliation may include resuming loudspeaker broadcasts at the border. North Korea warned it would resume balloon launches if South Korea restarts leafleting activities. Hyung-jin Kim, AP News, June 2
Officials overseeing Indonesia capital city project resign, raising questions. The head and deputy head of the body managing Indonesia's $32 billion new capital, Nusantara, have resigned. This development raises concerns about the project's future. President Joko Widodo has appointed interim leaders to accelerate construction. The project, aimed at alleviating Jakarta's congestion and flooding, faces delays and funding issues. Land ownership status at the new site is also a concern. President-elect Prabowo Subianto has pledged to continue the project, with significant developments planned soon. Ananda Teresia, Reuters, June 3
Japan expresses continued support for Ukraine as defense chiefs meet. Japanese Defense Minister Kihara Minoru reiterated Japan's support for Ukraine in a meeting with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Kihara condemned Russia's actions and emphasized cooperation with the international community. Umerov expressed gratitude for Japan's assistance, which has included financial aid and nonlethal defense equipment. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for global support to achieve peace in Ukraine and criticized China's influence on Russia. Kyodo News, June 2
Chinese defense minister accuses US of causing friction with its support for Taiwan and Philippines. Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun acknowledged the importance of renewed U.S-China military communications but blamed the U.S. for regional tensions due to its support for Taiwan and the Philippines. At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Dong emphasized China's non-aggressive stance but warned against provocations. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin affirmed strong support for the Philippines and stressed the need for military dialogue to prevent conflicts. David Rising, AP News, June 2
Australian MP highlights Việt Nam-Australia parliamentary relations. Deputy Speaker of the Australian House of Representatives Sharon Claydon emphasized the strong ties between the legislative bodies of Australia and Việt Nam. During a meeting with Vietnamese Ambassador Phạm Hùng Tâm, she expressed her desire to enhance activities of the Australia-Việt Nam Parliamentary Friendship Parliamentarians’ Group. Discussions included cooperation on gender equality, climate change, and green energy. Ambassador Tâm appreciated Claydon's contributions and called for support in implementing bilateral agreements. Vietnam News, June 1
Maldives bans Israeli passport holders from entering the country. The Maldives has prohibited Israeli passport holders from entering the nation in response to recent events in Gaza. President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih's administration announced the ban, reflecting the country's stance on the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine. The Maldives has a history of supporting Palestinian causes and has no formal diplomatic relations with Israel. Al Jazeera, June 2
Japan, US, S. Korea defense chiefs discuss joint drills, N. Korea. Defense ministers from Japan, the US, and South Korea met in Singapore to strengthen trilateral security cooperation. They agreed to conduct a new joint exercise called Freedom Edge this summer and enhance real-time information sharing on North Korean missile launches. The ministers condemned North Korea's recent missile tests and emphasized the need for integrated command structures and defense industrial cooperation. Kyodo News, June 2
South Korea to suspend military pact with North over trash balloons. South Korea plans to suspend a 2018 military agreement with North Korea in response to Pyongyang's provocative balloon launches carrying trash. The National Security Council will seek cabinet approval to halt the agreement, allowing South Korea to conduct military training near the border and take immediate measures. North Korea's balloon campaign, seen as retaliation against South Korean propaganda leaflets, has heightened tensions. The 2018 pact, already disregarded by Pyongyang, aimed to ease military tensions between the two Koreas. Jack Kim, Reuters, June 3
Chinese ships circling PCG vessel in Escoda. The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) ship BRP Teresa Magbanua has been harassed by Chinese vessels at Escoda (Sabina) Shoal for 10 days. The China Coast Guard (CCG) 3303 has been circling the PCG vessel, which is located 74 nautical miles from Palawan within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. This incident is part of ongoing territorial disputes in the West Philippine Sea. The PCG continues to monitor the situation while asserting their presence in the area. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, June 3
Yoon meets 10 African leaders ahead of Korea-Africa Summit. President Yoon Suk Yeol held bilateral meetings with leaders from Lesotho, Ivory Coast, Mauritius, Zimbabwe, Togo, Rwanda, Mozambique, Sao Tome and Principe, Guinea-Bissau, and Cape Verde on Monday. These meetings were in preparation for the inaugural Korea-Africa Summit, aimed at expanding cooperation in areas like energy, infrastructure, and agriculture. Yoon highlighted South Korea's commitment to international responsibilities. The African leaders expressed interest in learning from Korea's economic development. A welcoming dinner with 60 delegations followed the talks. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, June 3
Rigging claim hits Senate poll. The Election Commission (EC) of Thailand is investigating allegations by caretaker senator Somchai Swangkarn that up to 149 candidates have been pre-determined as winners in the upcoming Senate election. The claim, based on a list published on Facebook, has raised concerns about potential collusion and election manipulation. The EC plans to take legal action if the allegations are proven. The Senate election is scheduled for June, with voting at district, provincial, and national levels. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, June 3
Gov't warns of fraudulent companies, urges cautious investment. The Cambodian government has alerted the public to be wary of fraudulent companies similar to the defunct Brilliant City World Co Ltd, which deceived investors. Ky Tech, head of the government's legal team, urged vigilance and thorough consideration before investing. Authorities are encouraged to prevent and act against such illegal operations. Victims, including a man who lost nearly $30,000, are seeking legal representation. Officials emphasize not trusting companies solely based on their association with wealthy or powerful individuals. Phak Seangly, The Phnom Penh Post, June 3
South China Sea: Beijing warns neighbours of US ‘geopolitical self-interest’ in region. China urged South China Sea nations to be cautious of U.S. "geopolitical self-interest," responding to Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr's comments on aggressive actions in the contested waters. China criticized the US for supporting the Philippines and provoking tensions. Beijing emphasized cooperation with ASEAN countries to maintain stability and uphold navigation freedom. Marcos highlighted the importance of international law and a 2016 tribunal ruling favoring Manila's claims, which China rejects. Zhao Ziwen, South China Morning Post, June 3
Turkmenistan’s balance of trade with China tilting heavily in Ashgabat’s favor. Turkmenistan enjoys a trade surplus with China, with first-quarter 2024 trade turnover reaching almost $2.6 billion, of which $2.39 billion came from natural gas sales to China. Despite this, Beijing's diplomatic engagement with Turkmenistan remains limited, evidenced by a low-level delegation's visit for a national celebration. Turkmen Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov still regards China as a key strategic partner, highlighting the ongoing development of political, commercial, cultural, and humanitarian relations. Eurasianet, June 3
Long Form
Facing up to China’s Hybrid Warfare in the Pacific. The China Coast Guard is expanding its reach in the Pacific, part of a broader campaign to increase Beijing’s security role in the region. This year, the People’s Republic of China registered 26 China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels to operate in the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission Convention Area, which covers 20 percent of the globe, from the Aleutians in the North Pacific to the Southern Ocean. This region includes the strategic First, Second, and Third Island Chains. Anne-Marie Brady, The Diplomat, June 3
How Politics Holds Back Pakistan’s Economy. It is politics, not economics, that is preventing a wholesale turnaround of Pakistan’s broader trajectory. Discontent is growing across Pakistan due to a prolonged economic crisis and an electoral process perceived as unfair. Despite some economic stabilization, including a decline in inflation and currency stabilization, the country faces ongoing protests and requires additional financial aid from institutions like the IMF. Political instability is compounded by a crisis in the judiciary and increased military control over policymaking. Uzair Younus, The Diplomat, June 3
Papua New Guinea: All Geopolitics Is Local. The whole Pacific is grappling with Beijing’s campaign to become the dominant regional power and the pushback from a coalition of rival nations. PNG is experiencing this competition in unique ways. In April 2024, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese both visited PNG, highlighting its strategic importance. Domestic issues, including economic challenges, protests, and natural disasters, complicate PNG's geopolitical role. Prime Minister James Marape navigates international alliances while facing significant domestic turmoil. Patricia O’Brien, Douveri Henao, The Diplomat, June 3
Has China’s $1 Trillion Foreign Investment Paid Off? For decades, the Chinese economy has soared, allowing mass investment in global infrastructure projects. However, with the economy slowing due to COVID-19 lockdowns and record-low foreign investment, questions arise about the returns on these investments. China has invested heavily in projects from Sri Lanka to the Solomon Islands, but the benefits and effectiveness of these investments remain under scrutiny.Teuku Riefky, Mohamad Dian Revindo, The Diplomat, June 3
The Other Half of ‘Chip 4’: Japan and South Korea’s Different Paths to De-risking. As Japan’s semiconductor revival is firing on all cylinders, South Korea must move past its dependence on China to find its groove again. The Chip 4 alliance, which includes South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the United States, aims to de-risk the semiconductor supply chain from China. While the U.S. focuses on onshoring manufacturing and Taiwan deals with its Silicon Shield, Japan is advancing its semiconductor industry, and South Korea is working to reduce its reliance on China. Charles Mok, The Diplomat, June 3
Copper Prices Stay Firm After Hitting All-Time High on AI Demand, China Recovery. The global benchmark price for copper recently climbed to an all-time high, driven by strong AI demand and a recovering Chinese economy. Despite high production by Chinese refineries and weaker-than-expected domestic demand, copper prices are expected to remain elevated due to demand from data centers, clean energy projects, and electric vehicles. Industry analysts forecast a continued tight market, with potential price surges to $12,000 per tonne by the end of the year. Akane Okutsu, Nikkei Asia, June 3
India will never be all the West wants it to be. India cannot fill in for China as a production base or market due to its inability to offset China's demographic decline with cheap, abundant, and capable workers. The U.S. and its allies' efforts to court India to counter China's rise are seen as attempts to compensate for the West's declining military power, economic weaknesses, aging population, and sociopolitical divisions. Satyajit Das, Nikkei Asia, June 3
More muscle will be needed to turn China's property market around. Stock buying sentiment has improved, but homebuyers need more convincing. Beijing's recent measures, including lower down payments and interest rates, and a 300 billion yuan fund to support real estate purchases, are a step forward but not enough to significantly revive the housing market. The measures need to be more substantial to address the large housing inventory and market segmentation effectively. Xia Le, Nikkei Asia, June 3
Cambodia’s China policy: a balancing act for Phnom Penh. Cambodia's close relationship with China is driven by the need to manage security challenges from larger neighbors Thailand and Vietnam. Historically, Cambodia has relied on great powers like France, the U.S., and China for survival, often at the cost of autonomy and stability. While China remains a crucial strategic partner, Cambodia is diversifying its foreign policy by deepening ties with other countries and ASEAN members. This diversification aims to reduce over-reliance on China, though the effectiveness of these efforts remains to be seen. Chansambath Bong, East Asia Forum, June 1
Political narratives on poverty that mislead. Data on poverty eradication in India shows progress but belies stark inequality and systemic injustice. From 2015 to 2021, poverty rates fell significantly, yet issues such as caste-based wealth disparity, gender inequities, and religious persecution persist. Despite being one of the largest economies, India has the lowest Human Development Index among G20 countries. The upcoming national election necessitates a renewed focus on poverty, emphasizing that poverty is not just about lack of wealth but also political disenfranchisement and systemic oppression. Avinash Chennuri, East Asia Forum, June 1