China
China has begun issuing rare earth export licences to European firms, EU sources say. China has resumed issuing rare earth export licences to European firms, easing curbs introduced after U.S. tariffs but leaving EU leaders seeking a long-term fix. The EU views the move as insufficient amid concerns about trade weaponization. Brussels is pushing for structural changes or exemptions for non-military companies ahead of next month’s leaders’ summit in China. Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, June 26
White House says U.S. reaches ‘understanding’ with China on rare earth shipments. The United States and China have agreed on a framework to resume rare earth shipments, following Geneva trade talks and subsequent negotiations in London. The arrangement, announced by the White House, is tied to the potential rollback of U.S. countermeasures once deliveries begin. While details remain limited, the deal aims to prevent looming tariff hikes and includes discussions on broader export control issues. Khushboo Razdan, South China Morning Post, June 26
Japan
Critics say Ishiba erred in skipping NATO summit at the last minute. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is under fire for withdrawing from the NATO summit in the Hague, a move criticized by experts and ruling party members. Scheduled to represent Japan in the Indo-Pacific Four, Ishiba cancelled after Australia and South Korea also pulled out. Critics argue the absence weakened Japan’s leadership and could reduce NATO's interest in the region. Azusa Kato, The Asahi Shimbun, June 26
South Korea
Lee's approval rating stands at 64%: poll. President Lee Jae Myung’s approval rating reached 64% in a Gallup Korea poll conducted three weeks into his term, surpassing the early ratings of predecessors Yoon Suk Yeol and Park Geun-hye but trailing Moon Jae-in’s 84%. The ruling Democratic Party saw a dip to 43%, while the opposition People Power Party rose to 23%. The poll surveyed 1,004 adults with a ±3.1% margin of error. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, June 27.
South Korea nuclear watchdog approves first dismantlement of nuclear power plant. South Korea’s Nuclear Safety and Security Commission has authorized the country’s first nuclear decommissioning, approving Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power’s plan to dismantle the Kori-1 reactor. The 12-year project will cost 1.1 trillion won and manage roughly 170,000 tonnes of nuclear waste. Experts say the move could position South Korea in the global decommissioning market. Jack Kim and Joyce Lee, Reuters, June 26
North Korea
North Korea may send more troops to Russia in July or August for Ukraine war, Seoul says. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service believes North Korea may send more troops to Russia as early as July or August and continues to provide Russia with weapons. The assessment follows signs of troop mobilization and a senior Russian official’s visit to Pyongyang. In return, North Korea is likely receiving support for satellite launches and missile guidance. Jack Kim and Ju-min Park, Reuters, June 26
India
India says defence gathering in China unable to adopt joint statement. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s defence ministers failed to adopt a joint statement after India objected to the exclusion of references to terrorism. India cited the April 22 attack on Hindu tourists in Kashmir, which it blamed on Pakistan, as the impetus. It marked the first ministerial meeting between India and Pakistan since their May confrontation. Shivam Patel, Laurie Chen and Shilpa Jamkhandikar, Reuters, June 26
India, U.S. trade talks face roadblocks ahead of tariff deadline, Indian sources say. Trade discussions between India and the U.S. have stalled over disagreements on tariff cuts, with India resisting demands on farm goods and autos while seeking relief from proposed 26% reciprocal duties. Despite optimism earlier, little progress has been made, though leaders may still intervene. A delegation is expected in Washington, but India is prepared to wait for a broader deal. Manoj Kumar, Reuters, June 26
Thailand
Court to weigh petition on PM's audio leak row. Thailand’s Constitutional Court will decide on July 1 whether to accept a petition from 36 senators seeking Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s suspension over a leaked conversation with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen. The senators accuse her of ethical violations and abusing power. The National Anti-Corruption Commission is also investigating. Mongkol Bangprapa and Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, June 26
Myanmar
Junta hosts ‘Peace Forum’ ahead of planned elections in Myanmar. Myanmar’s military regime launched a three-day Peace Forum in Naypyidaw with participation from coup leader Min Aung Hlaing and several ethnic armed groups outside the nationwide ceasefire accord. The forum focused on the junta’s upcoming elections and included foreign diplomats from China, India, Russia, and others. Myanmar Now, June 26
Myanmar regime continues to bomb despite peace talks. As Myanmar’s junta hosted a Peace Forum in Naypyidaw with foreign and ethnic group participation, it simultaneously launched airstrikes and shelling across multiple regions. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army reported attacks on Mogoke, Nawnghkio, and Kyaukme, resulting in civilian casualties. Airstrikes in Karenni State killed at least seven miners. The Irrawaddy, June 26
Cambodia
Cambodia ex-leader Hun Sen and Thailand prime minister visit border areas. Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen and Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra visited separate border regions following a deadly clash that heightened tensions. Hun Sen reported increased military deployments, while Paetongtarn toured Aranyaprathet, a key trade hub impacted by restrictions. Cambodia countered Thai measures with economic boycotts. Sopheng Cheang and Jintamas Saksornchai, Associated Press, June 26
Thailand cuts all internet links to Cambodia. Thailand’s telecom regulator has ordered all operators to terminate internet and mobile services to Cambodia, targeting cybercrime operations near the Khlong Luek border crossing opposite Poipet. Services will be severed within 15 days near the border, with partial restrictions elsewhere. Operators must justify service continuation and document SIM card usage. Khmer Times, June 27.
Philippines
Sara: Marcos wants me out of 2028 polls. Vice President Sara Duterte claims President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. aims to block her from running in 2028 by arresting her father and initiating her impeachment. In an RT interview, she accused the administration of power consolidation and warned she might be targeted if she declares candidacy. Duterte reiterated her father’s arrest was politically motivated and stressed the need for separate U.S.-China diplomatic approaches. Red Mendoza and Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, June 26
House prosecutors send VP Duterte impeach complaint certification. The House prosecution panel submitted a certification to the Senate confirming the validity of its impeachment complaint against Vice President Sara Duterte. The complaint, backed by 215 lawmakers, accuses her of plunder, constitutional violations, and abuse of confidential funds. Duterte filed an “ad cautelam” response challenging jurisdiction. Krixia Subingsubing, Philippine Daily Inquirer, June 26
Oceania
Pacific Islands delay security plan that could open door to China. Leaders of the Melanesian Spearhead Group have postponed adoption of a regional security strategy amid differing views on Taiwan and potential cooperation with China. The group, including Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and Fiji, faces internal divisions, with some states aligned with Beijing and others backed by Australia or the U.S. Australia pledged increased surveillance funding and aid to reinforce Pacific-led security. Kirsty Needham, Reuters, June 26
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyz parliament backs new state controls on media outlets. Kyrgyzstan’s parliament has passed a bill requiring all news websites to register with a state-approved body and allowing the government to issue or revoke licenses. Critics say the law threatens press freedom, citing potential use against independent outlets. The Media Policy Institute urged President Sadyr Japarov not to sign it, though he has indicated support. Aigerim Turgunbaeva, Reuters, June 26
Kyrgyz PM highlights Belt and Road as strategic priority. Prime Minister Adylbek Kasymaliyev described China’s Belt and Road Initiative as a cornerstone of Kyrgyzstan’s infrastructure modernization and investment strategy during a panel at the 2025 Summer Davos. He emphasized five focus areas: transport connectivity, trade and investment, financial reform, digital innovation, and energy cooperation. Kasymaliyev also held bilateral talks with Chinese Premier Li Qiang to advance projects like the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, June 25
Northeast Asia
US Techno-Resource Containment Challenges China’s Tech Ambitions. The United States has intensified its “techno-resource containment” strategy, aiming to restrain China's technological ascent by restricting access to advanced semiconductors and critical raw materials. Recent moves include banning Nvidia’s top AI chip exports to China and securing mineral deals such as one with Ukraine. These measures exploit China’s dependencies on imported high-end chips and upstream raw materials, despite its dominance in mineral processing. Though Beijing is advancing domestic capabilities, major technical gaps remain. Southeast Asian countries stand at a crossroads, balancing lucrative U.S. investment opportunities against risks to autonomy and Chinese economic ties. Strategic alignment today hinges not on ideology but on control over the foundational resources and technologies of power. Ngo Di Lan, East Asia Forum, June 27
Hainan Opens Middle East Media Center. Hainan has launched its Middle East Liaison Center in Dubai as part of China’s broader push to increase its global propaganda apparatus through regional “international communication centers.” This new facility, inaugurated on June 19, supports China’s objective to project “discourse power” abroad by fostering content cooperation with Arab media. Backed by Hainan Broadcasting Group and closely aligned with the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the center will collaborate with China Arab TV to promote narratives around Hainan’s free trade port and China-Arab relations. Framed as cultural exchange, the initiative reflects Beijing’s strategic media diplomacy and its emphasis on harmony over critical reporting. David Bandurski, China Media Project, June 27
Can China Save Iraq from Its Water Crisis? Iraq faces a severe water crisis, with river flows from the Tigris and Euphrates down by over 40% since the 1970s, exacerbated by upstream damming, climate change, and crumbling infrastructure. Basra in particular is plagued by extreme salinity, pollution, and failing treatment systems. In response, China has stepped in through Belt and Road projects, building desalination plants and water systems to support both Iraq’s population and its oil sector. While China offers rapid implementation with fewer conditions, concerns remain over debt, transparency, and whether such initiatives genuinely promote long-term sustainability. The crisis highlights the need for Iraqi-led governance reforms in conjunction with external aid. John Calabrese, ThinkChina, June 26
From Manufacturing Giant to AI Leader: Can Guangzhou Make the Leap?Guangzhou is emerging as a major player in applied artificial intelligence, with firms like Kuaizi Technology and Moli Group leading innovation in AIGC and livestream commerce. Anchored by the Pazhou AI and Digital Economy Experimental Zone, the city hosts over 7,000 AI-related enterprises and a robust ecosystem focused on content production, smart retail, and industry-specific large language models. Despite strengths in AI applications, Guangzhou lacks foundational tech developers and globally competitive AI champions, posing challenges to its ambition of global leadership. Government initiatives aim to transform its manufacturing base into a driver of intelligent transformation. Zeng Shi, ThinkChina, June 26.
Southeast Asia
Is a Coup Coming Soon in Thailand? Thailand’s military is increasingly asserting its dominance, raising concerns about an imminent coup. With a history of thirteen successful coups, the Thai army remains deeply embedded in national power structures. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s administration, weakened by internal coalition shifts and inexperience, is under mounting pressure. The military’s recent actions, publicly challenging civilian authority, charging a foreign scholar with lese majeste, escalating tensions with Cambodia, and stoking nationalist sentiment, mirror patterns preceding past coups. Pro-military factions are pushing for a no-confidence vote, potentially toppling the government and justifying military intervention. Ultranationalist protests and boundary-testing maneuvers suggest a deliberate destabilization strategy. Though not imminent, a coup could unfold within weeks if political instability persists. Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations, June 26
Vietnam’s Double-Digit Growth Target Is Unrealistic Yet Useful. Vietnam’s 2026–30 double-digit growth target, while economically implausible, is catalyzing vital policy reforms aimed at elevating the country to high-income status by 2045. With a 2024 per capita income of US$4472, reaching the projected high-income range requires sustained annual GDP growth of 7.5–9.7 per cent—levels rarely achieved outside extraordinary events. Structural constraints such as low productivity gains, demographic decline, and external trade shocks render the goal largely unattainable. Nonetheless, the target has driven legislative action on science, international integration, governance, and private enterprise. This ambitious vision stimulates reforms but risks data manipulation and inefficient projects if pursued dogmatically. Phan Le, East Asia Forum, June 26
Rethinking Thailand’s University Admissions System. Thailand’s TCAS university admissions system, introduced in 2018 to reduce exam-related stress, now faces criticism for its complexity, inconsistency, and inequity. The multi-round process — Portfolio, Quota, Admissions, and Direct Admission — with varying requirements, overwhelms students and disadvantages those from less privileged backgrounds. Frequent rule changes, costly applications, and ambiguous test questions exacerbate inequality. A 2024 study found that over 85% of disadvantaged applicants failed to secure admission. While not advocating for TCAS’s removal, experts call for stabilised procedures, improved test quality, and policies addressing educational disparities to ensure a fairer system for all students. Panarat Anamwathana, FULCRUM, June 26
South Asia
The India-Australia Military Partnership Must Move from Paper to Practice. India and Australia’s defence cooperation, anchored by the 2020 Mutual Logistics Support Arrangement, has yet to reach its operational potential. While leaders recently reaffirmed commitments to deepening military interoperability, the partnership must evolve beyond symbolic gestures. The agreement could enable joint use of facilities, such as in the Andaman and Nicobar or Cocos Islands, and support underway replenishment, storage of equipment, and emergency part exchanges. Realising these benefits requires not only dialogue but also concrete actions like building dual-use infrastructure and organising logistics-focused exchanges. Strengthening practical cooperation would cement both countries’ roles in regional security frameworks. Anuttama Banerji, Lowy Institute, June 27
Oceania
Australia Should Stop Pretending to Be a Military Hegemon. Australia’s escalating defence investments, particularly through AUKUS, are strategically misplaced given its limited capacity to shape Asia’s regional security via military means. Despite a $368 billion commitment, Australia’s efforts pale in comparison to Chinese and U.S. capabilities. Instead, its influence lies in shaping economic development—areas where it boasts diplomatic strength, trade expertise, and multilateral experience. Prioritizing global economic governance, climate finance, and developmental policy could better serve national and regional security. Redirecting focus from militarization to diplomacy and economic leadership would align more realistically with Australia’s size and resources. Connor O’Brien, Lowy Institute, June 27