China
China's rare earth magnet shipments halve in May due to export curbs. China’s rare earth magnet exports dropped 52.9% in May compared to April, reaching their lowest level since February 2020, as customs tightened controls under new export restrictions. The curbs, affecting key materials in defense and tech sectors, disrupted global supply chains. Confusion over licensing and classification further slowed shipments, although a limited number of export licenses were approved recently. Amy Lv and Ryan Woo, Reuters, June 20
Japan
Japan destroyer sails Taiwan Strait after China jet encounter. A Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer transited the Taiwan Strait on June 12, days after a Chinese J-15 jet flew dangerously close to a Japanese patrol aircraft over the Pacific. The Takanami’s 10-hour voyage, monitored by China, followed a joint drill with the Philippine Navy off Luzon. This marks Japan’s third such transit in a year amid increasing regional tensions. Kyodo News, June 20
Calls to make naturalization more difficult emerge in parliament talks. Japanese lawmakers raised concerns over the perceived ease of acquiring citizenship compared to permanent residency, prompting calls to tighten naturalization criteria. Lawmaker Hirofumi Yanagase criticized the five-year residency requirement and minimal background checks, noting a surge in foreign nationals choosing citizenship to circumvent stricter residency hurdles. Himari Semans, The Japan Times, June 20
South Korea
South Korea drafts second extra budget as new leader seeks to spur growth. President Lee Jae-myung proposed a $14.7 billion supplementary budget to combat economic stagnation and boost consumer spending. The plan includes universal cash handouts, primarily 250,000 won per person, and support for construction, AI, and SMEs. Funded through treasury bonds, it raises the fiscal deficit to 4.2% of GDP. The budget follows a prior $13.8 billion package and reflects Lee’s expansionary fiscal stance. Jihoon Lee, Reuters, June 19
South Korea's spy agency chief nominee rejects 'pro-North Korea' label. Lee Jong-seok, nominee for National Intelligence Service chief, dismissed claims that he is pro-North Korea, emphasizing a pragmatic approach focused on national interest. At his confirmation hearing, he defended his past positions opposing THAAD and GSOMIA, and called for revising the anti-espionage law to target threats from multiple nations. A former unification minister, Lee pledged to enhance intelligence on North Korea. Lee Hyo-jin, The Korea Times, June 19
Lee to hold meeting with leaders of ruling, opposition parties. President Lee Jae-myung will host a luncheon meeting on Sunday at his residence with Democratic Party leader Kim Byung-kee and People Power Party leaders Kim Yong-tae and Song Eon-seog. The session will cover his recent G7 summit participation and other open-agenda issues. The gathering, arranged at Lee’s invitation, aims to foster bipartisan dialogue amid ongoing political and economic challenges. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, June 19
North Korea
Russia restores N. Korea’s postal lifeline. Russia has resumed postal services with North Korea after a four-year suspension due to the pandemic, marking a symbolic step in Pyongyang’s cautious reemergence. The service allows packages up to 20 kilograms, with delivery from Moscow to Pyongyang in 15 days via Vladivostok. This revival reflects growing Moscow–Pyongyang ties amid global sanctions and North Korea’s prolonged isolation under its strict zero-COVID policy. Rob Lauler, Daily NK, June 19
India
Thailand
Army calls for national unity after coup fears. Thailand’s army chief Gen Pana Klaewplodthuk reaffirmed the military’s commitment to democracy amid growing coup speculation sparked by border tensions and Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s leaked call with Cambodia’s Hun Sen. Army spokesman Maj Gen Winthai Suvaree stressed unity and trust in the military’s role. Protesters have demanded Paetongtarn’s resignation, while the defense minister stated that military leaders have pledged not to stage a coup. Bangkok Post, June 19
Thai opposition calls for House dissolution to head off coup. People's Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut urged Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra to dissolve the House following a leaked phone call with Cambodia’s Hun Sen and Bhumjaithai Party’s exit from the coalition. He warned of a leadership crisis and the risk of a coup, criticizing the government’s failure to fulfill economic and reform promises. The call referred to a Thai general as “opposite side,” heightening civil-military tensions. Bangkok Post, June 19
Laos
Laos undertakes major government reshuffle amid structural reforms. The Lao government has reorganized nine ministries and replaced the central bank governor in a broad reform aimed at streamlining state functions. Approved during a June 6 National Assembly session, the plan merges the finance and planning ministries and dissolves the Ministry of Home Affairs. Additional reshuffles affected energy, labor, health, and agriculture portfolios. Oulayvanh Sisounonth, The Laotian Times, June 19
Cambodia
Deputy PM: Thailand has violated 2000 Memorandum of Understanding 695 times. Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister General Tea Seiha accused Thailand of violating the 2000 Memorandum of Understanding 695 times, citing evidence of unauthorized road construction and patrols along the border. Speaking in Tboung Khmum province, he criticized Thai claims of Cambodian infractions and emphasized Cambodia's right to deploy troops to safeguard its sovereignty. Khmer Times, June 20
Philippines
Japan-U.S.-Philippines hold coast guard drills with eye on China. Japan, the United States, and the Philippines conducted joint coast guard exercises off Japan’s southwest coast, including a simulated vessel collision, fire, and rescue operation. The drills aimed to reinforce regional maritime cooperation amid tensions with China in the East and South China Seas. The Manila Times, June 20
Marcos sacks 3 more, including Palace liaison to Congress. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. accepted the courtesy resignations of three officials—Mark Llandro Mendoza, Roman Felix, and John Arenas—as part of a sweeping performance review. Mendoza was the Palace’s liaison to Congress; Felix advised on military and police affairs; and Arenas led PNOC Renewables. Marcos emphasized accountability and hinted at further reshuffles, declaring underperformers should “get out of the way.” Julie M. Aurelio, Philippine Daily Inquirer, June 20
Indonesia
President Prabowo welcomed by Putin for bilateral meeting in Russia. President Prabowo Subianto was received by Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Constantine Palace in Saint Petersburg for his first official state visit as Indonesia’s head of state. The leaders exchanged remarks affirming their past engagements and future cooperation, ahead of Prabowo’s scheduled speech at the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum. ANTARA News, June 19
Putin hints at military-technical cooperation with Indonesia during Prabowo's visit. President Vladimir Putin expressed Russia’s intention to deepen ties with Indonesia, highlighting prospects in agriculture, space, energy, and military-technical cooperation during a meeting with President Prabowo Subianto in Saint Petersburg. The two leaders emphasized growing trade and discussed a possible free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union. Jakarta Globe, June 19
Malaysia
Malaysia trims deficit to 4.1%, aims lower as Anwar eyes investor trust, stronger economy. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim reaffirmed his administration’s focus on reducing the fiscal deficit, which dropped from 5.5% in 2022 to 4.1% in 2024, with a 2025 target of 3.8%. Government debt also decreased from RM100 billion to RM85 billion over the same period. Malay Mail, June 20
Singapore
Seah Kian Peng to be nominated again as Speaker of Parliament; Indranee Rajah will remain Leader of the House. Seah Kian Peng will be nominated for re-election as Speaker of Singapore’s Parliament when the House reconvenes on September 5, with Prime Minister Lawrence Wong confirming his decision in a letter to the Clerk of Parliament. Indranee Rajah will continue as Leader of the House, a post she has held since 2020. President Tharman Shanmugaratnam is set to address the new session. Ng Wei Kai, The Straits Times, June 20
Taiwan
Taiwan on alert over China's military activities in Pacific. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te ordered enhanced intelligence and security measures in response to the deployment of two Chinese aircraft carriers operating simultaneously in the Pacific for the first time. The operations near the first and second island chains raise regional risks, with Taiwan and Japan actively tracking the vessels. Lai emphasized readiness amid broader global security challenges linked to Middle East tensions. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, June 19
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan’s budget deficit reaches $6.9 billion in 2024. Kazakhstan posted a budget deficit of 3.6 trillion tenge ($6.9 billion) in 2024, equivalent to 2.7% of GDP, with revenues at 98% of the target and expenditures at 23.6 trillion tenge. Finance Minister Madi Takiyev said all social commitments were met, including major allocations for regional support and healthcare. Lawmakers cited weak revenue planning and rising debt, now at 30.1 trillion tenge. Fatima Kemelova, The Astana Times, June 19
Northeast Asia
Death by Nemawashi. Japan’s traditional consensus-building process, nemawashi, could dangerously delay political decisions critical to U.S. military operations in a Taiwan contingency. While American forces in Japan are vital for rapid deployment, their use hinges on Tokyo’s formal approval, especially under the 2015 security laws and the 1960 U.S.-Japan security treaty requiring prior consultation. Japan’s prime minister must navigate input from civil servants, ruling parties, and local officials, potentially stalling decisions just when speed is essential. Such delays risk undermining U.S. response capabilities and aiding China’s objectives. To mitigate this, the U.S. must pre-negotiate scenarios, conduct joint planning, and integrate Japan’s decision timelines into operational strategies to prevent alliance paralysis during crises. Jeffrey W. Hornung, RAND, June 18
From Coal to Kilowatts: Is China Turning a Corner on Carbon? China's carbon emissions fell in early 2025, driven by clean energy outpacing electricity demand growth, not economic slowdown, marking a potential turning point. With fossil fuels still dominant, coal generated 54.8% of electricity in 2024, though clean energy reached 38%. Massive investments, including 6.8 trillion RMB in clean tech last year, helped add 278 GW in solar and 79.8 GW in wind capacity. Strategic imperatives like energy security and climate diplomacy underlie this. Yet, structural constraints persist: coal remains a critical energy pillar, with new plant approvals hedging against instability. China now seeks to lead climate efforts, especially as the U.S. recedes. Its emissions peak may come earlier than 2030, but sustaining momentum remains a challenge. Genevieve Donnellon-May, ThinkChina, June 19
China’s sanctions gambit: Formal and informal economic coercion in the second trade war. China increased its economic retaliation during the 2025 trade war with the U.S., adopting a potent blend of formal and informal sanctions. It mirrored and exceeded U.S. tariff hikes, added targeted export controls on rare earths, and imposed legal sanctions on American firms. Using a strategic “two-step” approach, China introduced legal frameworks preemptively and activated them at key moments, boosting pressure while retaining flexibility. These moves expedited U.S. concessions, leading to a tariff rollback and broader negotiations. However, collateral effects hit Europe, with delayed inputs prompting production halts. This showed China's readiness to weaponize trade to deter alignment with U.S. policies, foreshadowing a future where economic coercion becomes central to Beijing’s geopolitical strategy. Viking Bohman, Audrye Wong, Victor Ferguson, Swedish National China Centre, June 19
Southeast Asia
Growing Rivalry Between Indonesia's Police and Military. A decade of police dominance under President Joko Widodo is rapidly giving way to a military resurgence led by his successor, Prabowo Subianto, reshaping Indonesia’s power landscape. The police, once favored and widely appointed across civil and regulatory institutions, are now being eclipsed by military elites occupying key government roles. Rising tensions have sparked violent clashes and public concern over declining democratic safeguards. Prabowo’s government has expanded military involvement in civilian affairs, enabled by a swiftly passed law reviving the Suharto-era “dual function” doctrine. Critics warn this undermines reforms separating police and military roles post-1998. Human rights activists urge the state to address deep-rooted institutional egotism, while concerns mount over the military’s entrenchment in sectors like agriculture and health. Asia Sentinel, June 20
A Border Skirmish and Leaked Phone Call Sees the Thailand-Cambodia Dispute Surge Back to Life. A recent border clash and leaked phone call have reignited the Thailand-Cambodia territorial dispute near the Preah Vihear temple, a long-contested site unresolved despite a 1962 ICJ ruling. Tensions escalated after a Cambodian soldier’s death and a leaked conversation in which Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra appeared politically vulnerable, asking Cambodia’s Hun Sen for de-escalation support. Critics accuse Thai conservative factions of exploiting the dispute to undermine her fragile coalition. Cambodia, emboldened by Chinese military aid, has threatened ICJ action as Thai domestic instability grows. Meanwhile, social media amplifies nationalist sentiment, complicating diplomacy. Without a neutral mediator like Indonesia’s former FM Natalegawa, prospects for a peaceful resolution are dim, and Paetongtarn’s political survival remains uncertain. Susannah Patton, Lowy Institute, June 19
Myanmar and ASEAN’s Parallel Diplomacy Trap. ASEAN’s fragmented response to Myanmar’s post-coup crisis has birthed a pattern of parallel diplomacy that bypasses the bloc’s formal consensus-based framework. These informal, often bilateral or minilateral efforts, ranging from Indonesia’s quiet engagement with resistance actors to Thailand’s unofficial meetings with the junta, show how national agendas are overtaking collective strategy. Though some initiatives supplement ASEAN’s reach, their lack of coordination fosters ambiguity, which the Myanmar military exploits to dilute regional pressure. Divisions are deepening over the junta’s planned 2025 elections, and external actors like China are capitalizing on ASEAN’s strategic drift. Without institutional reform and a broader, more inclusive diplomatic architecture, ASEAN risks irrelevance, reduced to symbolic unity amid competing state-led maneuvers. Vu Lam, Lowy Institute, June 19
Transnational Crime in Cambodia and Indonesia: Strengthening Regional and National Responses. Transnational crime syndicates in Cambodia and Indonesia are increasingly linked to illegal online gambling and cyber scams, with many operations functioning as hubs for human trafficking and forced labor. Indonesia’s “Consortium 303” and the exploitation of tens of thousands of Indonesians in Cambodian scam centers show the scope of the issue. Victims are often lured through fraudulent job offers and endure abusive conditions. At the regional level, ASEAN and China have initiated collaborative efforts, including the ASEAN CERT and joint operations like Maharlika III, but challenges persist. Improved cross-border legal harmonization, zero-tolerance policies for landlords and ISPs, and broader definitions of trafficking are vital. Nationally, socio-economic drivers and regulatory gaps must be addressed to dismantle these networks and protect vulnerable populations. Jeselyn and Danielle Lynn Goh, RSIS, June 19
Oceania
Pacific Island Nations Must Reboot Regional AI Leadership. Pacific island nations face critical challenges in developing a cohesive artificial intelligence (AI) strategy, risking dependence on external technologies ill-suited to local contexts. Infrastructure limitations, regulatory gaps, and low public awareness hamper AI adoption, while regional coordination remains fragmented. Fiji is emerging as a leader, integrating AI into its national development plan, launching an AI hub, and forming global partnerships. However, lasting success requires investment in digital literacy, inclusive governance, and culturally relevant applications. Stronger regional institutions and technical assistance are essential for tailored frameworks. By reclaiming agency over AI development, Pacific communities can ensure the technology supports disaster resilience, economic diversification, and cultural preservation. Peter Brimble, Hilman Palaon, and Simran Singh, East Asia Forum, June 19