Asia Daily: June 17, 2024
News
China blames Philippines for ship collision in South China Sea. Manila calls the report deceptive. A Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship collided near the Spratly Islands on Monday, escalating territorial disputes. China’s coast guard claimed the Philippine ship ignored warnings near the Second Thomas Shoal, leading to the collision. The Philippines refuted this, calling China's report deceptive and reaffirming its territorial rights. U.S. Ambassador MaryKay Carlson condemned China’s actions, stressing U.S. commitment to defend the Philippines. Simina Mistreanu and Jim Gomez, AP News, June 17
Japan PM calls for global efforts to achieve lasting peace in Ukraine. Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio has urged global leaders to intensify their efforts to secure lasting peace in Ukraine. Speaking ahead of the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland on June 15-16, Kishida emphasized the necessity for a collective international approach to end the ongoing conflict. The summit, co-hosted by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Swiss President Viola Amherd, aims to forge a comprehensive peace plan without Russia's participation. Over 100 countries are expected to attend. Kyodo News, June 16
Philippines files formal claim on extended WPS shelf to UN. The Philippines has formally submitted a claim to the United Nations to register its extended continental shelf in the Western Palawan region of the West Philippine Sea. The Department of Foreign Affairs announced that the submission was made on June 14 by the Philippine Mission to the UN in New York. This move aims to assert the country's maritime entitlements amid ongoing territorial disputes in the region. The Manila Times, June 16
Russia’s Putin to visit North Korea amid international concerns over their military cooperation. Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit North Korea for two days starting Tuesday, meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. This visit marks Putin’s first trip to North Korea in 24 years. The discussions are expected to focus on military and economic cooperation, including potential arms deals. U.S. and South Korean officials have expressed concerns over the implications for regional stability and international sanctions. Tong-hyung Kim, AP News, June 17
Courts to hear 4 key cases. The Constitutional Court in Thailand will deliberate on four significant political cases starting Tuesday. The cases involve a Senate election ruling, lese majeste charges against former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and issues concerning Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin and the Move Forward Party. The court is expected to rule on the Senate election case, while the other cases will take longer. Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul emphasized the government’s commitment to maintaining national stability. Aekarach Sattaburuth and Chairith Yonpiam, Bangkok Post, June 17
Germany negotiating Afghan deportation deal with Uzbekistan. Germany is in talks with Uzbekistan to deport Afghan asylum seekers in exchange for allowing Uzbek labor migrants to work in Europe. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has promised a tougher stance on migration following violent attacks and rising far-right sentiments. The proposed pact, discussed by German officials in Tashkent, would have Uzbekistan accept deported Afghan asylum seekers and transfer them to Afghanistan. The deal also seeks to facilitate the legal migration of skilled Uzbek workers to Germany. The Times of Central Asia, June 17
Hungary reopens embassy in Laos after three decades. Hungary has reopened its embassy in Laos, marking the restoration of diplomatic relations after a 30-year hiatus. The reopening ceremony was attended by Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó and Laos’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Saleumxay Kommasith. This move aims to strengthen political and economic ties, with Hungary investing around USD 200 million in Laos in recent years. The embassy, located in Vientiane, positions Hungary as the fourth EU member country with an embassy in Laos. Phontham Visapra, The Laotian Times, June 17
Bloc backing Okinawa's anti-U.S. base governor fails to win majority. In a recent election, the political bloc supporting Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki, who opposes the relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, failed to secure a majority. Tamaki, however, was reelected with 51% of the vote, reflecting local opposition due to environmental and structural concerns. The plan to relocate the base to Henoko has faced delays since its development after a 1995 incident involving U.S. servicemen. Kyodo News, June 16
Myanmar junta chief vows to hold elections in 2025. Myanmar's coup leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, announced plans to hold long-delayed elections next year. Speaking in Meiktila, he stated that preparations, including a population and household census, will begin in October to facilitate a free and fair multiparty election. Despite repeated promises since the coup over three years ago, much of Myanmar remains in turmoil, with ongoing violence and opposition to military rule. Critics remain skeptical about the junta's commitment to democratic processes. Sa Tun Aung, Myanmar Now, June 17
Chinese premier agrees with Australia to ‘properly manage’ differences. Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese agreed to manage their nations' differences during Li's visit to Australia. They discussed trade barriers, military conflicts, and investment in critical minerals. The visit marks improved relations, with most trade barriers lifted since Albanese's election. Li emphasized the importance of their strategic partnership, while Albanese highlighted the need for cooperation and addressing disagreements openly. Several agreements on trade, education, climate change, and more were signed. Rod McGuirk, AP News, June 17
Former opposition party leader Saidjafar Usmonzoda arrested in Tajikistan. Saidjafar Usmonzoda, a member of parliament and former chairman of the Democratic Party of Tajikistan, has been stripped of his parliamentary immunity and arrested in Dushanbe. This decision, made during a parliamentary session at the request of the Prosecutor General, follows accusations of his involvement in a plot to overthrow the government. Usmonzoda is alleged to have sought $10 million from a foreign representative to support his plans. The Times of Central Asia, June 17
Russian President Putin to visit Việt Nam on June 19-20. Russian President Vladimir Putin will make a state visit to Việt Nam on June 19-20 at the invitation of General Secretary of the Communist Party of Việt Nam's Central Committee Nguyễn Phú Trọng. This visit underscores the strong diplomatic relations between Việt Nam and Russia, which date back to 1950 and have been continually reinforced through multiple agreements, including the 2021 Joint Declaration on the Vision for Strategic Partnership until 2030. Vietnam News, June 17
Election Commission submits more docs for Move Forward case. The Election Commission (EC) has submitted additional documents to the Constitutional Court in a petition seeking to dissolve the opposition Move Forward Party (MFP). EC secretary-general Sawaeng Boonmee stated that no witness list was needed due to sufficient grounds from the court's previous ruling on lese majeste law. MFP leader Chaithawat Tulathon criticized the EC's approach, insisting on a thorough investigation. The court accepted the petition in April, which could result in severe penalties for the MFP and its executives. Mongkol Bangprapa, Bangkok Post, June 16
PM Hun Manet rejects ban on used car imports, urges enhanced vehicle inspections. Prime Minister Hun Manet has dismissed the idea of banning used car imports in Cambodia, instead advocating for stricter vehicle inspections to address environmental and safety concerns. He emphasized that many citizens, including taxi drivers, cannot afford new cars, making a ban impractical. The proposal was initially suggested by Deputy Prime Minister Aun Pornmoniroth to reduce pollution. Manet highlighted the need for affordable, safe vehicles and encouraged foreign investment in local car manufacturing. Ry Sochan, The Phnom Penh Post, June 17
Long Form
China, Taiwan, and the Future of Guatemala. Guatemala faces a diplomatic crossroads as it navigates relationships with China and Taiwan. Historically aligned with Taiwan, Guatemala now considers the economic and political advantages of switching allegiance to China. This is influenced by China's growing global influence and the promise of substantial investments and trade opportunities. However, such a move could strain Guatemala's ties with the United States, a key ally and supporter. R. Evan Ellis, The Diplomat, June 17
What Will Modi 3.0 Mean for China-India Relations? The re-election of Narendra Modi for a third term as Prime Minister of India raises questions about the future of China-India relations. Under Modi's leadership, India has pursued a more assertive foreign policy, especially regarding its northern neighbor. This period has seen increased military tensions and border disputes. Analysts predict that Modi's third term will likely continue this trend, emphasizing national security and strategic autonomy. The potential for both conflict and cooperation in economic and geopolitical spheres remains significant. Scott N. Romaniuk and Khandakar Tahmid Rezwan, The Diplomat, June 15
Chinese Leadership’s In-House Lecture Offers Valuable Insights into China’s AI Strategy. The lecture focused on the importance of AI in China's national development, and its role in economic growth, national security, and global competitiveness. Key areas of focus include advancements in machine learning, data analytics, and the integration of AI in various industries. This strategy is indicative of China's commitment to becoming a world leader in AI technology, with substantial investments and policy support driving innovation and implementation. Lizzi C. Lee, The Diplomat, June 15
China Vanke: The Poster Child of a Now Troubled Property Sector. China Vanke, once a leading example of success in China's property sector, now faces challenges amidst the industry’s downturn. The company has been hit hard by the government's stringent regulations aimed at curbing excessive borrowing and speculation in the real estate market. As a result, Vanke struggles with declining sales and mounting debt, reflecting broader issues within the sector. The situation at Vanke serves as a stark illustration of the wider economic and financial troubles plaguing China's property market today. Kenji Kawase and Echo Wong, Nikkei Asia, June 17
Acclaimed Judges Aren't Alone in Giving Up on Hong Kong Courts. The resignation of high-profile judges from Hong Kong’s courts shows a growing disillusionment with the region's judicial independence. These departures reflect broader concerns about the erosion of legal autonomy and increasing influence from Beijing. The judges’ resignations showcase the fears that the courts can no longer uphold the rule of law without political interference. This situation poses significant implications for Hong Kong's legal system and its status as an international financial hub. Kevin Yam, Nikkei Asia, June 17
Asia Can Bear with Higher-for-Longer U.S. Rates. Asia's economies are showing resilience despite prolonged higher interest rates in the United States. While higher U.S. rates traditionally lead to capital outflows and currency depreciation in Asia, many countries in the region have strengthened their economic fundamentals and built up substantial foreign exchange reserves. Additionally, sound fiscal policies and diversified trade relationships have helped mitigate potential negative impacts. This preparedness positions Asia to withstand the financial pressures resulting from the U.S. Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy. Priyanka Kishore, Nikkei Asia, June 17
Malaysia’s Anwar Talks Gaza, Hamas Ties and ‘Totally Insane’ US-Israel Nexus. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim criticized the US-Israel relationship, describing it as "totally insane" and expressing solidarity with Gaza and Hamas. Anwar highlighted Malaysia's historical support for Palestine and condemned what he sees as double standards in international politics. He also addressed the humanitarian situation in Gaza, calling for global attention and intervention. Anwar's statements reflect Malaysia's long-standing stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and its commitment to supporting Palestinian rights. Joseph Sipalan and Hadi Azmi, South China Morning Post, June 15
Indian Voters Show They Want a New Modi in New Delhi. The recent electoral results indicate that Indian voters desire continuity in leadership, favoring Prime Minister Narendra Modi for another term. This preference shows the public’s approval of Modi's policies, including economic reforms, national security measures, and efforts to improve India's global standing. The election outcome reflects a strong mandate for Modi’s vision and governance style, despite challenges such as inflation and unemployment. The voters' support signals a continued trajectory of Modi's influence in shaping India's future. East Asia Forum, June 17
Politics Contradict Japanese Public Opinion on Same-Sex Marriage. There is a growing disparity between Japanese political decisions and public opinion regarding same-sex marriage. Despite increasing public support for legalizing same-sex marriage, political leaders remain resistant to change. Surveys indicate that a significant majority of Japanese citizens are in favor of recognizing same-sex marriages, but conservative elements within the government hinder progress. This disconnect raises concerns about the representation of public will in policymaking and showcases the ongoing struggle for LGBTQ+ rights in Japan. Yasuo Takao, East Asia Forum, June 15
Is Kishida Finished? Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida faces growing political challenges that threaten his leadership. Amidst declining approval ratings, Kishida struggles with internal party conflicts and public dissatisfaction over economic issues and pandemic response. Speculation about his potential resignation or replacement is increasing within political circles. Analysts argue that without significant policy successes or shifts in public sentiment, Kishida's tenure may be in jeopardy. The situation shows the volatility and pressures within Japanese political dynamics. Tobias S. Harris,
, June 17Forestry Futures. Southeast Asia's forestry sector faces both challenges and opportunities as it adapts to changing environmental and economic conditions. The region's forests are under pressure from deforestation, illegal logging, and climate change, but there are also emerging trends in sustainable forestry practices and investments in reforestation. These efforts aim to balance economic development with environmental preservation. The future of the forestry industry in Southeast Asia will depend on the successful implementation of sustainable practices and effective policies to protect and manage forest resources. Digby James Wren, Mekong Review, June 2024