Asia Daily: June 16, 2025
China
Xi Jinping to meet Central Asian leaders as both sides seek ‘stronger coordination’. Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend the China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan to deepen cooperation in energy, transport, and the digital economy. The agenda includes progressing the $8 billion China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and renewable energy ventures. Facing U.S. tariffs and geopolitical shifts, both sides aim to diversify trade routes and reduce reliance on Russian infrastructure. Alyssa Chen, South China Morning Post, June 15
China's military conducts patrols in South China Sea, warns Philippines. China’s military carried out joint sea and air patrols in the South China Sea, warning the Philippines over its growing security cooperation with external powers. A PLA spokesperson accused Manila of raising regional risks and reaffirmed China’s readiness to safeguard its sovereignty. Tensions persist despite a 2016 Hague ruling rejecting Beijing’s expansive maritime claims. Reuters, June 15
Japan
Japan, U.S. leaders' talks could take place Monday in Canada: source. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and U.S. President Donald Trump are expected to meet during the G7 summit in Canada to address bilateral tariffs and deepen security ties. Talks may build on recent ministerial efforts to resolve trade tensions, including U.S. tariffs on Japanese exports. The agenda could also cover regional security challenges posed by China and North Korea. Kyodo News, June 15
Panel to propose Japan weigh defense spending above 2% of GDP. A Japanese Defense Ministry panel is preparing to recommend that defense spending exceed the current 2% of GDP goal and consider deploying submarines with long-range, possibly nuclear, missiles. The draft urges exploring unmanned systems and AI technologies. Concerns remain over funding and potential conflicts with Japan’s pacifist stance on nuclear energy. Kyodo News, June 15
South Korea
Lee's approval rating stands at 58.6% in 1st week in office. President Lee Jae-myung received a 58.6% approval rating in a Realmeter poll conducted during his first week in office, surpassing his immediate predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol and former President Park Geun-hye. The Democratic Party’s support rose to 49.9%, while the opposition People Power Party fell to 30.4%. Presidential officials attributed the approval to public hopes for restored democracy. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, June 16
Ex-President Yoon attends 7th hearing of insurrection trial. Former President Yoon Suk Yeol appeared at the Seoul Central District Court for the seventh hearing of his insurrection trial but did not comment on concurrent investigations into him and his wife. He faces charges for his December martial law declaration, and potential penalties include life imprisonment or death. Two witnesses were scheduled to testify later in the session. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, June 16
Thailand
Rift grows amid Thai govt reshuffle talk. Tensions within Thailand’s coalition government escalated after Pheu Thai MP Anusorn Iamsa-ard suggested dissatisfied parties should exit and join the opposition. Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of Bhumjaithai, hinted at leaving if stripped of the Interior Ministry. The postponement of a cabinet meeting has fueled speculation of an impending reshuffle, with ministers urged to be fully prepared amid rising public and geopolitical pressures. Bangkok Post, June 15
Vietnam
Vietnam says U.S. trade talks made progress but key issues are unresolved. Vietnam and the United States made headway in recent trade talks in Washington but unresolved issues persist as a 46% tariff deadline nears. Discussions focused on reducing Vietnam’s dependence on Chinese imports and addressing transshipment practices. Both sides plan continued negotiations, including a ministerial-level meeting. Phuong Nguyen, Reuters, June 15
Vietnam's National Assembly adopts historic constitutional amendments. Vietnam’s National Assembly unanimously approved sweeping constitutional amendments that will eliminate district-level administrative units nationwide starting July 1, 2025. Described as a historic reform by Vice Chairman Nguyen Khac Dinh, the resolution aims to create a leaner and more effective political system. Vietnam News, June 15
Laos
Cambodia
Cambodia turns to World Court over Thailand border disputes. Cambodia has asked the International Court of Justice to resolve four contentious border areas with Thailand after a fatal skirmish in May. Prime Minister Hun Manet said bilateral talks have failed to yield results. Thailand, which rejects ICJ jurisdiction, prefers continued bilateral dialogue. Phnom Penh responded with economic countermeasures, including halting imports and restricting Thai media. Panu Wongcha-Um and Chantha Lach, Reuters, June 15
Senate president calls for Cambodian migrant workers in Thailand to return home. Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen called on migrant workers in Thailand to return home amid unresolved border disputes and rising tensions. He pledged support for undocumented returnees and emphasized the availability of domestic jobs in agriculture, construction, and industry. Citing discrimination and insecurity, he warned that continued reliance on Thailand is unsustainable and suggested Cambodia may close its border if issues persist. Khmer Times, June 16
Philippines
PH, Japan hold second maritime exercises in WPS. The Philippines and Japan conducted their second bilateral maritime cooperative activity in the West Philippine Sea, enhancing operational interoperability under the Reciprocal Access Agreement. The Philippine Navy deployed the BRP Miguel Malvar and an AW-159 helicopter, while Japan’s JS Takanami and SH-60K helicopter participated. Exercises included anti-submarine warfare, division tactics, and surveillance operations. The Manila Times, June 16
Duterte's health, age could favor transfer to unnamed country — lawyer. Former President Rodrigo Duterte, facing trial at the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity, may seek transfer to a third country due to chronic illness and age, according to international lawyer Arnedo Valera. Valera cited precedents in international law that support relocation on humanitarian grounds. Duterte’s legal team has yet to name the country under consideration. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, June 16
Indonesia
President Prabowo departs for official visit to Singapore. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto left Jakarta for Singapore to attend a state reception, bilateral meetings with President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, and a leaders' retreat with Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. The visit aims to align strategic priorities of both administrations and address bilateral, regional, and global issues. ANTARA News, June 15
Taiwan
Beijing’s top Taiwan official warns independence forces will bring ‘disaster’ to island. Wang Huning, China's top political adviser on Taiwan, warned that pro-independence efforts would lead to disaster and urged deeper cross-strait integration. Speaking at the Straits Forum, he emphasized opposition to external interference. Former Taiwanese leader Ma Ying-jeou advocated dialogue, drawing criticism from Taiwan’s ruling DPP. Yuanyue Dang, South China Morning Post, June 15
Taiwan adds China’s Huawei and SMIC to export control list. Taiwan has added Chinese firms Huawei and SMIC to its export control list, requiring Taiwanese companies to obtain permits before exporting to them. Both are already sanctioned by the U.S. and central to China’s AI chip development. Taiwan’s move further aligns with U.S. efforts to limit China’s tech access, reinforcing its position as a key semiconductor hub. Associated Press, June 15
Northeast Asia
Emerging Cracks in the China Tech Consensus. Under President Trump’s second term, the previously bipartisan U.S. strategy on China’s tech challenge is showing fissures as the administration moves from containment to commercial competition. AI and semiconductors remain central to national policy, but tactics now focus on global market dominance over protective isolationism. Trump’s administration authorized major GPU sales to Gulf states to secure strategic partnerships, trading short-term domestic capability for long-term geopolitical influence. Meanwhile, Huawei’s growing chip capacity and DeepSeek’s rapid global AI ascent signal rising competition. Export controls have increased, targeting AI chips, EDA software, and nuclear components, although some measures were reversed to stabilize trade. The administration is increasingly clear on where it must dominate (AI, chips), where it can delegate (quantum, aerospace), and where toleration suffices (EVs, solar). However, this evolving doctrine lacks full coherence, as policy remains reactive and deal-driven. The U.S. now faces hard decisions on how to preserve its technological lead amid changing global alignment and industrial capacities.
, , June 12Israel attacks Iran: What should we expect from Beijing? Following Israel’s dramatic airstrike on Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure, China’s immediate response is expected to be limited to diplomatic statements supporting Iran, condemning Israel, and blaming the U.S. Beijing’s broader influence in the Middle East remains modest, especially given its minimal leverage over Israel and history of underdelivering for Iran. While the Chinese narrative of “peace through development” remains central to its regional diplomacy, recent events highlight the inadequacy of purely economic approaches to deep-rooted political crises. China has issued safety advisories to its nationals in both Iran and Israel, citing a “complex and severe” security environment. Despite its extensive regional economic interests, Beijing is unlikely to alter its cautious, non-interventionist stance. Planned diplomatic engagements, such as an anticipated Iranian presidential visit to China, may be postponed amid escalating tensions.
, , June 13Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center: A Suspected New Enrichment Facility and Dismantlement of 50 MWe Reactor. Satellite imagery indicates North Korea is expanding its uranium enrichment capabilities at Yongbyon, consistent with IAEA findings and past activity at the suspected Kangson site. A new facility, similar in layout, scale, and security to Kangson, appears near completion, potentially aimed at producing fissile material in line with Kim Jong Un’s directives to exponentially grow the nuclear arsenal. Construction features include grid-pattern pillar foundations, a central hall with flanking offices, and a suspended floor likely designed for high-speed centrifuges. In addition, a probable new underground radioactive waste storage facility is being constructed nearby, while dismantlement efforts at the obsolete 50 MWe reactor have resumed with visible structural teardown. These developments collectively signal a renewed commitment to expanding nuclear infrastructure, raising proliferation concerns, and suggesting Yongbyon’s continued centrality in North Korea’s weapons program. Peter Makowsky, Jack Liu and Iliana Ragnone, 38 North, June 13
China’s tussle to the end with the US. As high-level US-China trade talks concluded in London, China emphasized resilience and strategic autonomy through a rare front-page interview with Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei in People’s Daily. Ren, once sidelined by US sanctions, has resurfaced as a symbol of China's defiance and technological perseverance. His remarks demonstrate China’s strategy to build a self-sufficient tech ecosystem and downplay the impact of chip restrictions. The article reveals China’s expanding leverage via its rare earth dominance and critical role in pharmaceutical supply chains, notably controlling key inputs for US medications. Despite economic headwinds and export declines, China projects readiness for prolonged rivalry, aiming for a “competition without falling out” dynamic. The mutual dependence between the US and China has birthed a fragile equilibrium akin to a “balance of terror.” At home, entrepreneurs are now expected to align closely with state objectives, as Ren exemplifies. Han Yong Hong, ThinkChina, June 13
Southeast Asia
Thailand’s grand political compromise cracks under pressure. Thailand’s post-2023 political settlement, uniting the Pheu Thai Party with conservative establishment allies to exclude the progressive Move Forward Party, has begun to unravel under legal, political, and economic strain. Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, granted a royal pardon upon his return, faces fresh investigations over the legitimacy of his hospital stay and ongoing royal defamation charges. His daughter, current Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, leads a fragile coalition increasingly dominated by the conservative Bhumjaithai Party, whose leader Anutin Charnvirakul has repositioned the party as a monarchist power broker. Internal friction has hampered key Pheu Thai initiatives, including constitutional reform and economic policy responses, while external pressures, such as U.S. tariffs and Cambodia border tensions, exacerbate instability. With Bhumjaithai facing its own legal scrutiny and Pheu Thai slipping in polls behind the People’s Party, the longevity of the “grand compromise” is uncertain. Mathis Lohatepanont, East Asia Forum, June 15
Pulling Hanoi from the Pollution Precipice. Hanoi faces a severe air pollution crisis, with PM2.5 levels far exceeding national and WHO guidelines, leading to 70,000 deaths annually and reducing life expectancy by 1.4 years. Major pollution sources include motor vehicles, industrial activity, construction, and open waste burning. A third of the city’s PM2.5 originates locally, with the remainder transported from surrounding regions. Existing air quality action plans are deemed inadequate, and forecasts suggest worsening pollution without stronger, integrated policy measures. Vietnam’s path to high-income status and net-zero emissions by 2050 is threatened unless Hanoi implements tougher emissions standards, expands electric vehicle use, and accelerates the move from coal to renewable energy. The city must also reform waste management practices, curb open burning, and install methane capture systems in landfills. Targeting air pollutants and greenhouse gases together, as demonstrated by Beijing’s prior success, offers a roadmap to improve both public health and environmental outcomes. Vinod Thomas, FULCRUM, June 16
Towards a Just Energy Transition in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia's pivot to renewable energy faces critical challenges of equity, employment disruption, and environmental justice. With over 70% of electricity still fossil-fuel-driven, transitioning entails massive changes affecting millions, especially in coal-dependent economies like Indonesia and Vietnam. The Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) aims to finance this with $20 billion for Indonesia and $15.5 billion for Vietnam, but finance gaps and political resistance remain. Indonesia’s Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan (CIPP) and Vietnam’s Resource Mobilisation Plan (RMP) outline strategies to mitigate social costs and protect vulnerable groups, while ASEAN’s regional framework emphasizes energy security, public participation, and inclusion. Yet, public awareness is low, especially in rural areas, and the dominance of fossil fuel interests hinders progress. Infrastructure projects and critical mineral extraction pose additional environmental and social risks. Effective transition demands inclusive governance, innovative finance tools like green bonds, and dismantling entrenched fossil fuel interests. Mirza Sadaqat Huda, FULCRUM, June 13
Central Asia
Central Asia’s New Playbook. Central Asia’s renewed trajectory is being guided by a governance model anchored in three priorities: institutional reforms, a diversified foreign policy, and increased regional cooperation. Once viewed as a geopolitical backwater beset by instability and surrounded by volatile neighbors, the five ex-Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are leveraging resource wealth and geopolitical positioning to strengthen their sovereignty and resilience. Efforts to modernize institutions aim to boost state capacity and transparency, while foreign policy diversification reduces overdependence on any one power bloc. Simultaneously, greater regional integration fosters economic connectivity and collective security, offsetting the risks posed by proximity to global flashpoints like Afghanistan and Xinjiang. Despite competition among China, Russia, the EU, and the U.S., Central Asian states are asserting agency with a pragmatic, cooperative strategy that positions them for stability and prosperity in an increasingly multipolar world. Djoomart Otorbaev & Brian Wong, Project Syndicate, June 12
South Asia
Bangladesh is helping to create a geopolitical shift in South Asia. Under interim leader Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh is pursuing a sharp foreign policy realignment, moving away from India and deepening ties with China, Pakistan, and Turkey. This is a departure from the India-centric approach of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, whose regime was ousted in 2024. Yunus’s China visit yielded landmark agreements in military technology, robotics, and market access, alongside increased diplomatic and economic exchanges. Concurrently, Dhaka has improved relations with Pakistan after decades of tension and is considering the purchase of Chinese fighter jets used by Pakistan in recent clashes with India. Yunus also seeks defense collaboration with Turkey, which recently supported Pakistan militarily. Tensions with India have escalated due to border expulsions, canceled agreements, and growing anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh. A recent poll shows public favor moving toward China and Pakistan. Yunus’s strategy of multipolar engagement seeks development and autonomy but risks dependency on Beijing if not carefully balanced. Nazam Laila, Chatham House, June 12
Oceania
Australia’s quiet role in China–ASEAN dynamics. As Southeast Asia navigates increasing strategic pressure from U.S.–China rivalry, Australia has emerged as a subtle yet critical intermediary. While China’s Belt and Road Initiative dominates regional infrastructure financing, distrust of Beijing persists, prompting ASEAN nations to seek balanced development and maritime security. Amid Trump-era unpredictability, Australia’s credibility as a neutral, informed partner stands out. Leveraging its policy expertise, academic depth, and established cultural ties, Australia is positioned to facilitate informal scholar-led collaboration among ASEAN and Chinese institutions. This model of low-cost, high-impact technical cooperation, ranging from flood-resistant infrastructure to marine conservation, sidesteps political entanglements. Past success in combating illegal fishing and advancing environmental initiatives demonstrates the potential for expanded trilateral engagement. By offering climate-ready solutions and infrastructure governance insights, Australia serves as a translator between regional aspirations and practical implementation. Such collaboration promises a durable framework where mutual technical credibility, not geopolitical rivalry, defines the Indo-Pacific’s future. Tao Kong, East Asia Forum, June 14