China
Xi-Trump phone call suggests ties are warming but the timing of a meeting is another thing. Despite a cordial phone call and mutual invitations between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump, Xi is not expected to attend the U.N. General Assembly in September, with Premier Li Qiang likely representing China instead. A potential Trump visit to China may hinge on the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations, especially regarding rare earths, fentanyl, and technology controls. South China Morning Post, June 12
China grants rare earth export permits after U.S. trade talks, offers relief but uncertainty persists. China issued export permits for key rare earth elements following recent trade discussions in London, temporarily easing pressure on U.S. companies dependent on these materials. The decision follows President Donald Trump's announcement of an agreement to resume supply. Analysts remain cautious as Beijing may maintain limits for defense-related uses. Josh Funk and Didi Tang, Associated Press, June 12
Japan
Japan and China trade blame over Chinese fighter jets flying close to Japanese planes. Japan accused China of dangerous aerial maneuvers after a Chinese J-15 jet reportedly approached within 45 meters of a Japanese P-3C aircraft during reconnaissance missions over the Pacific. The incidents occurred as two Chinese carriers, the Shandong and Liaoning, operated jointly near southern Japan. Beijing defended its actions, blaming Japanese surveillance for the tensions. Mari Yamaguchi and Christopher Bodeen, Associated Press, June 12
Japan delays decision on reviewing political donations. Japan’s ruling and opposition parties have agreed to defer discussions on revising political donation rules until after the summer, citing the difficulty of passing legislation before the current parliamentary session ends on June 22. While the ruling LDP proposed increased transparency, opposition parties sought a ban. None of the proposals have majority backing, and talks will resume after the upcoming House of Councilors election. The Japan Times, June 13
South Korea
Independent counsel vows to probe ex-President Yoon's martial law bid only in line with 'logic of investigation'. Cho Eun-suk, appointed by President Lee Jae-myung, pledged a methodical investigation into former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s alleged attempt to impose martial law, emphasizing strict adherence to procedural justice. Alongside Cho, two other counsels will separately examine cases involving Yoon’s wife and a Marine’s death, signaling a broad inquiry into high-profile controversies. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, June 13
Lee's approval rating rises to 53%: poll. President Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating reached 53% in a National Barometer Survey conducted during his first week in office. While 19% viewed his performance negatively, 65% of respondents expressed confidence in his future leadership. Support for the ruling Democratic Party increased to 45%, while the opposition People Power Party fell to 23%. Additionally, 57% approved of Lee's appointments to key government positions. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, June 12
North Korea
North Korea's Kim Jong Un lauds restored destroyer, says more to be built. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un presided over a ceremony for the re-launch of a 5,000-ton destroyer that had previously capsized in May. He praised its restoration as a testament to North Korea’s naval ambition and announced plans to build two more similar warships by next year. He also urged bolstering maritime presence against U.S. and allied provocations. Joyce Lee, Reuters, June 12
Seoul, Washington extend dialogue overtures to Pyongyang; ball in N. Korea's court. South Korea and the United States have both made recent efforts to re-engage North Korea, including halting propaganda broadcasts and attempting direct communication. President Lee Jae-myung pledged to restore inter-Korean communication, while Donald Trump sought to send a letter to Kim Jong-un. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, June 12
Thailand
Thai panel upholds suspension of doctors who helped ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra dodge jail. Thailand’s medical council upheld the suspension of two doctors who enabled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to avoid serving jail time by falsely justifying his extended stay in a VIP hospital room. The council found they violated professional standards and overruled the health minister’s objection to the punishment. Panarat Thepgumpanat, Panu Wongcha-um and Chayut Setboonsarng, Reuters, June 12
Constitutional Court dismisses three petitions related to Senate election. Thailand's Constitutional Court dismissed three separate petitions concerning last year’s Senate election, citing procedural grounds and lack of petitioner qualification. The court ruled that the complaints, including those by Pinyo Boonruang, Thanachoke Chavavit, and Kamrob Panyakaew, either constituted impermissible appeals or were submitted to the wrong judicial body. The Nation, June 12
Myanmar
China defends Myanmar junta on human rights at U.N. At a U.N. session, China opposed international criticism of Myanmar’s military regime, with envoy Sun Lei rejecting what he called the politicization of human rights and voicing support for ASEAN mediation. Despite criticism over pressuring ethnic armed groups and backing the junta, China reaffirmed its intent to play a “constructive role” while defending Myanmar’s sovereignty and political agenda. The Irrawaddy, June 12
Cambodia
Hun Sen issues strongly worded message of steps Cambodia will take if Thailand refuses to open border gates that it closed unilaterally. Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen warned of retaliatory measures if Thailand fails to reopen unilaterally closed border checkpoints. Measures include halting Thai imports, redirecting exports and medical patients, managing returning workers, placing armed forces on alert, and preparing border provinces for evacuation. Khmer Times, June 13
Indonesia
Indonesia says South Korea’s KF-21 jet deal is still on table. Indonesia confirmed the KF-21 fighter jet partnership with South Korea remains active despite a presidential transition in Seoul and recent procurement of Turkish KAAN jets. While financial contributions have been reduced, Jakarta remains open to cooperation. Allegations of data theft by Indonesian engineers were dropped. Jayanty Nada Shofa, Jakarta Globe, June 12
Taiwan
Taiwan jails Chinese ship captain for damaging undersea cables. A Taiwanese court sentenced the Chinese captain of the cargo ship Hong Tai 58 to jail for damaging undersea cables near southwestern Taiwan by dropping anchor. The incident caused over T$17 million in repair costs for Chunghwa Telecom. The captain denied criminal intent, claiming negligence, while seven other crew members were deported due to lack of evidence. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, June 12
China drills suggest invasion intent, Hegseth says. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told Congress that China’s recent military exercises near Taiwan resemble invasion preparations, though no final decision appears made. Senators stressed the need for deterrence and accelerated arms delivery to Taipei. Taiwan’s envoy to Washington urged quicker military shipments and a double taxation deal, while Chinese naval activity intensifies. Taipei Times, June 12
Northeast Asia
Military Will Likely Drive Trump’s Indo-Pacific Policy. The Trump administration is intensifying its Indo-Pacific Strategy with a strong military focus, prioritizing defense expansion, industrial cooperation, and strategic deterrence. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's participation at the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue revealed the administration's focus on pressuring allies to increase military budgets, targeting 5% of GDP, and promoting joint defense capabilities through initiatives like the Partnership for Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience. Planned investments include radar facilities in Australia and unified drone system standards. The strategy aims to forge a tightly networked alliance structure, with calls for increased trilateral cooperation among Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. A massive U.S. defense budget boost to $1 trillion is expected to fund projects like the F-47 fighter and a “Golden Dome” defense system. Although framed regionally, the strategy unmistakably targets China, portraying it as a military threat and urging regional and European allies to counterbalance Beijing’s influence. Despite criticisms that Trump downplays ideological elements, U.S. policy continues to leverage democratic values against authoritarian models. However, the military-centric strategy risks destabilizing the region, contradicts Asia-Pacific nations' aspirations for peace, and raises concerns about U.S. reliability, particularly given transatlantic tensions. Observers warn it creates confrontation and undermines cooperative security. Zhang Gaosheng, CHINA US Focus, June 12
Charting Japan’s ‘third path’ under Trump 2.0. In response to President Trump’s revived protectionist agenda and strategic integration of trade, finance, and security in his second term, Japan is pursuing a 'third path' focused on multilateral economic frameworks, particularly the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Faced with heightened economic risks due to overdependence on the U.S., Japan is reinforcing rules-based trade through expanded CPTPP engagement and deeper coordination with the European Union. With the UK's accession in 2024, the CPTPP now spans 12 nations and could rival both the U.S. and China in economic influence. Japan aims to extend this framework into Latin America and ASEAN, supporting countries like Indonesia and potentially South Korea in adopting CPTPP standards. This diversification is also intended to counter economic coercion and sustain global trade norms. However, the initiative faces challenges: the CPTPP lacks a major consumer market, is vulnerable to U.S. retaliatory trade measures, and risks internal tensions over supply chain reconfigurations and China’s pending application. Still, Japan sees an opportunity to reshape global economic governance by anchoring its strategy in multilateralism and regulatory harmonization with like-minded partners. Satoru Kohda and Ayaka Hiraki, East Asia Forum, June 13
China and the US enter a strategic stalemate as chips and rare earths chokehold is released. After a prolonged confrontation involving tariffs and export restrictions, China and the United States have entered a phase of strategic stalemate. Following a constructive leaders' call and trade negotiations in Geneva and London, both nations agreed to reduce tariffs and initiate mutual concessions, China easing rare earth export bans and the U.S. considering lifting restrictions on semiconductor-related technologies. Despite these developments, the underlying rivalry persists, with China gaining ground in chip self-sufficiency and turning the tables through rare earth leverage, impacting both U.S. defense and civilian industries. This marks a transition from China’s previous defensive stance to a more assertive strategy, balancing offensive and defensive moves in trade and technology. The U.S.'s traditional dominance is eroding due to internal policy unpredictability and diminishing allied cohesion, which weakens its pressure tactics. As China’s dual circulation strategy and high-tech sectors advance, the U.S. finds it increasingly difficult to sustain economic coercion. The bilateral power dynamic has thus reached a more balanced but tense equilibrium. Yu Zeyuan, ThinkChina, June 12
South Korea’s Evolving AI Regulations. South Korea passed the world’s first comprehensive AI legal framework, the AI Basic Act, on December 26, 2024, in response to both technological advancements and growing societal concerns over misuse, particularly after incidents involving political deepfakes and explicit AI-generated content. Taking effect in January 2026, the law consolidates 19 bills debated over four years. It establishes key institutions such as an AI policy center, safety research institute, and national commission, and mandates transparency in generative AI and impact assessments for high-risk systems. However, critics argue the act lacks specificity, particularly in defining “high-impact AI systems,” and sidesteps direct regulation of harmful AI applications like political or sexual deepfakes. It also offers limited enforcement mechanisms and relies on subordinate legislation to operationalize its provisions. The law’s success hinges on detailed implementation rules expected later in 2025, though concerns about stifling innovation have sparked calls to delay its enforcement. Despite its ambitions, the law’s real effect will depend on how South Korea navigates this delicate balance between innovation and regulation amid rapid AI advancements. Seungmin (Helen) Lee, Stimson Center, June 12
Southeast Asia
Indonesia’s democratic future depends on youth political sophistication. A surge in youth-led protests in response to Indonesia's new National Armed Forces Law shows the rising political awareness among students, reminiscent of the 1998 Reformasi movement. However, this visible activism contrasts with the broader political behavior of Indonesian youth, many of whom supported an undemocratic candidate in the 2024 election, raising concerns about their overall political sophistication. Defined by access to information, cognitive ability, and motivation, political sophistication is hindered in Indonesia by unequal education and a lack of structured civic education. Despite high internet penetration, especially among Millennials and Gen Z, political motivation and critical thinking skills are lacking. Current civic education is overly normative, neglecting real political dynamics and participatory learning, while universities have become increasingly apolitical. This combination leaves youth vulnerable to disinformation and populist manipulation. To counteract this, comprehensive reforms in political education are needed, beginning in secondary schools and incorporating case-based learning, simulations, and digital literacy. Empowering youth with critical engagement tools is essential for nurturing informed voters and safeguarding Indonesia’s democratic trajectory. Kahfi Hafiz, East Asia Forum, June 12
Vietnam amid great power rivalry: Is it playing the economic game well enough? Vietnam’s strategy of economic neutrality has been challenged by the shock of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, including a 46% rate on Vietnamese goods. The country’s deep integration into global supply chains, especially through foreign direct investment (FDI), has exposed structural vulnerabilities. With 74.2% of exports from foreign-invested enterprises and state-owned enterprises limited to domestic markets and low-tech sectors, Vietnam lacks industrial resilience. Despite some private sector dynamism, most firms remain confined to low-complexity industries. Efforts to attract high-tech investment, like Nvidia’s engagement and Samsung’s large presence, show potential, but the lack of local firm development and minimal technological spillover persist. Comparisons to China reveal Vietnam’s shortfall in building industrial ecosystems and grooming competitive domestic champions. To achieve sustainable growth and mitigate external shocks, Vietnam must move beyond assembly roles, supporting innovation and industrial capability among domestic firms. This requires recalibrating its FDI-driven model to prioritize technological depth and strategic resilience in global production networks. Guanie Lim, ThinkChina, June 12
When Espionage Allegations Fuel Sinophobia. Marking the 50th anniversary of diplomatic ties between China and the Philippines, escalating espionage accusations have instead strained relations and increased Sinophobia. Allegations, though largely circumstantial, target Chinese nationals, Filipino-Chinese citizens (Tsinoys), students, and political figures, reviving Cold War-era suspicions. High-profile cases include claims against Bamban Mayor Alice Guo and the arrest of Deng Yuanqing near military sites. Despite minimal evidence, these incidents have spurred racial profiling and social media hostility, affecting daily interactions and undermining trust in the Chinese community. Economic fallout includes a drastic drop in Chinese tourist arrivals and increased scrutiny of China-linked businesses. Further tension arose with claims that the Chinese embassy financed a "troll farm" to sway elections, though the embassy denied interference. The Philippine government faces growing pressure to differentiate valid security concerns from xenophobic or politically motivated assertions. Failure to do so risks deepening societal divisions and normalizing ethnic discrimination, especially toward long-established Tsinoy communities. Authorities are urged to transparently address and, when necessary, dismiss baseless allegations to uphold both national security and social cohesion. Teresita Ang See and Siti Suhaila Bte Mohd Harith, FULCRUM, June 13